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Now this is very anorack!

lancashire lad
lancashire lad Posts: 15,626
edited October 2009 in General Charlton
Can't do links but try this:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/LeagueOne.html
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Comments

  • Morts-Genius
    Morts-Genius Posts: 967
    Far too anorack for me!
  • Kap10
    Kap10 Posts: 15,563
    stats gone mad
  • charltonkeston
    charltonkeston Posts: 7,359
    Thats the trouble with stastics, can look a little bit mad.
    We got an impact score of -0,8 but most of us would have thought an away draw against league leaders, who have not drop a point at home, would have been a great result.
    Stats are better with at the end of the season with a large amount of hindsight.
  • Salad
    Salad Posts: 10,189
    currently 53% for promotion, 18% to win the title.
  • 101
    101 Posts: 2,456
    edited October 2009
    A bit sad i think its all about how we do each day i cannot be bothered with things like this makes my head hurt lol.
  • Swisdom
    Swisdom Posts: 14,977
    edited October 2009
    I bet AFKA is tugging himself all around the office at these stats!

    ;-)
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,955
    Very interesting.

    But what does it prove ....... apart from speculation?

    It will all change again next week.
  • Paddy7
    Paddy7 Posts: 1,663
    Very colourful. Has Rolf Harris been at it?
  • Salad
    Salad Posts: 10,189
    this weekend's results, especially Leeds' defeat and Colchester's victory courtesy of 'Super Kev' (TM) means our "chance" of winning the league has gone up 2% and our chance of promotion has remained static.

    However we have now been leapfrogged by Colchester:

    Leeds title/promotion "odds"
    41% (-9%) ... 72% (-7%)

    Colchester title/promotion "odds"
    23% ( 7%) ... 57% (7%)

    Charlton title/promotion "odds"
    20% ( 2%) ... 53% (0%)
  • RedZed333
    RedZed333 Posts: 3,103
    Damn, I knew we should have sold Lisbie sooner...
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  • Salad
    Salad Posts: 10,189
    Charlton title/promotion "odds": 11% / 50%
    (+5% / +11% from last week)

    Leeds title/promotion "odds": 70% / 90%

    Colchester title/promotion "odds": 6% / 38%

    ... and Huddersfield now almost neck and neck with Colchester.
  • Salad
    Salad Posts: 10,189
    "Chance of promotion"

    Leeds 95%
    Charlton 48% (down 5% from weekend)
    Huddersfiled 43%
    Colchester 37%
    Norwich 22%
    Millwall 12%
    Franchise 12%
  • Salad
    Salad Posts: 10,189
    Leeds 97%
    Charlton 54% (+5)
    Colchester 42%
    Huddersfield 33%
    Norwich 27%
    Swindon 10%
    Millwall 10%
    Walsall 8%
    Franchise 7%
  • nigel
    nigel Posts: 2,454
    Swisdom reckoned: ''I bet AFKA is tugging himself all around the office at these stats!''

    Don't think so. My theory is that the anorak behind this can only be AFKA, doing a bit of moonlighting!
  • johnnybev1987
    johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
    what ridiculous stats, you can never beat afka so dont even try!!!!
  • Swisdom
    Swisdom Posts: 14,977
    Norwich are starting to unnerve me a bit - they are going well at the moment as are Col U

    mkdons appear to be flagging

    2 automatics are between us, Leeds, Norwich and Hudds I think - col u don't have the squad to go the distance hopefully
  • Salad
    Salad Posts: 10,189
    "Chance of promotion"

    Leeds 98%
    Charlton 64% (+10)
    Norwich 35%
    Colchester 32%
    Huddersfield 25%
    Millwall 11%
    Walsall 11%
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,034
    I love this site. Apparently Chelsea have a 79% chance of winning the prem !
  • Salad
    Salad Posts: 10,189
    Leeds 96%
    Charlton 67% (+3)
    Norwich 39%
    Colchester 34%
    Huddersfield 23%
    Swindon 11%
    ....
    Millwall 7%
  • Salad
    Salad Posts: 10,189
    edited December 2009
    Leeds 96% .............(77% for title)
    Charlton 72% ......... (17% for title)
    Colchester 37%
    Norwich 33%
    Huddersfiled 24%
    Millwall 8%
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  • johnnybev1987
    johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
    [cite]Posted By: Salad[/cite]Leeds 96% .............(77% for title)
    Charlton 72% ......... (17% for title)
    Colchester 37%
    Norwich 33%
    Huddersfiled 24%
    Millwall 8%

    ei ei eio, up the football stats we go. and when we gain promotion this is what we'll sing!
  • Salad
    Salad Posts: 10,189
    we are down to 4th

    Leeds 98% .............(90% for title)
    Norwich 53% .......... (4% for title)
    Colchester 47% ...... (3% for title)
    Charlton 46% ......... (3% for title)
    Huddersfiled 22%
    Swindon 11%
    Millwall 7%
  • johnnybev1987
    johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
    [cite]Posted By: Salad[/cite]we are down to 4th

    Leeds 98% .............(90% for title)
    Norwich 53% .......... (4% for title)
    Colchester 47% ...... (3% for title)
    Charlton 46% ......... (3% for title)
    Huddersfiled 22%
    Swindon 11%
    Millwall 7%

    Leeds look pretty certain to win title then, but still you never know

    Shame we have gone down but a few wins in a row will change that and well be back up there again
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,955
    Who cares, we've still 20 games to play.
  • Salad
    Salad Posts: 10,189
    according to this useless tool we are 95% certain of promotion (Leeds were 90% to win the title in the last post!)
  • creepyaddick
    creepyaddick Posts: 6,152
    That was with 20 games to go though!
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,764
    Making nice reading still.
  • Cafctekkers
    Cafctekkers Posts: 1,254
    like how it says 0.0% chance of winning the title for all the teams from 7th down apart from chesterfield at the bottom where it just says NO
  • redman
    redman Posts: 5,285
    What is RPI? and what is strength all about?
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,764
    I'm using this site after every game to see how the percentages chance and I find it really interesting (even though I know all the numbers will send most people to sleep...).

    1.8% Burnley
    2.0% Derby
    2.2% Millwall
    2.3% Birmingham
    6.9% Blackburn
    7.2% Charlton
    8.8% Blackpool
    16.2% Huddersfield
    23.3% Ipswich
    26.5% Sheff W
    26.9% Barnsley
    47.3% Wolves
    53.2% Peterborough
    75.1% Bristol City
    redman said:

    What is RPI? and what is strength all about?

    RPI: Ratings Percentage Index rank among all team in the league. "The Rating Percentage Index, commonly known as the RPI, is a quantity used to rank sports teams based upon a team's wins and losses and its strength of schedule."

    Strength: Expected winning percentage the weighted method uses when simulating games. To calculate we start with (depending on the league) either the current winning percentage or a fancier formula based on goals delta . Then the percentage is regressed towards the mean, a fancy way of saying nudged back towards .500, a lot early in the season and less and less as the season progresses.

    Basically I think RPI takes into account the difficulty of each team's run in and ranks them? That might be completely wrong. It's used a lot in American sport so someone familiar with that might know exactly.

    Strength is a measure of how good each team is in the league based on their position and their W-D-L record, it helps weight the results because of course in a game 1st vs 24th, there isn't a 33% chance of each outcome.

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