I'm using this site after every game to see how the percentages chance and I find it really interesting (even though I know all the numbers will send most people to sleep...).
Barnsley relegated 5 times out of 6 | 175 out of 210 Yeovil relegated 7 times out of 10 | 147 out of 210 Millwall relegated 2 times out of 3 | 140 out of 210 Charlton relegated 3 times out of 7 | 90 out of 210
Barnsley relegated 5 times out of 6 | 175 out of 210 Yeovil relegated 7 times out of 10 | 147 out of 210 Millwall relegated 2 times out of 3 | 140 out of 210 Charlton relegated 3 times out of 7 | 90 out of 210
Forest win - 40.7% chance of relegation Draw - 32.7% chance of relegation Charlton win - 19.5% chance of relegation
Obviously those percentages will differ from the above slightly depending on the results of Leicester vs Yeovil, Reading vs Barnsley and Millwall vs Birmingham.
PS We have a 0.00032% chance of making the play-offs. :-)
It shows that our most likely record from our final twelve games is W3-D3-L6, giving us 44 points at the end of the season. That leaves us with roughly a 1 in 3 chance of being relegated (CoR), depending on how the others do. Too close for comfort, every point is pivotal...
CoR on 50pts = <0.1% CoR on 49pts = 0.2% CoR on 48pts = 1.0% CoR on 47pts = 3.1% CoR on 46pts = 8.5% CoR on 45pts = 18.6% CoR on 44pts = 34.3% CoR on 43pts = 50.0% CoR on 42pts = 67.0% CoR on 41pts = 80.6% CoR on 40pts = 90.5%
Our percentages after Tuesday night will be: Charlton win: down to 11.4% Draw: up to 25.7% Yeovil win: up to 39.7%
If Millwall lose at Wigan, their L1 chances go past 90%. Barnsley's will go to 85.5% if they lose to Burnley and if we beat Yeovil, they'll be at 95.2% chance of being relegated. It's a huge night of fixtures at the bottom.
Comments
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/ChampionshipLeague.html
Chance of relegation percentages:
83.2% Barnsley
70.1% Yeovil
67.0% Millwall
42.7% Charlton
23.1% Doncaster
9.5% Blackpool
3.4% Birmingham
0.5% Sheff Wed
0.4% Bolton
Lol!
Yeovil relegated 7 times out of 10 | 147 out of 210
Millwall relegated 2 times out of 3 | 140 out of 210
Charlton relegated 3 times out of 7 | 90 out of 210
:-)
Chance of relegation percentages:
86.8% Barnsley
74.4% Yeovil
69.3% Millwall
39.4% Charlton
15.9% Doncaster
9.3% Blackpool
4.4% Birmingham
The bloke is from Raleigh, North Carolina, USA FFS and calls a draw a tie.
78.9% Millwall
75.3% Yeovil
35.2% Charlton
6.3% Doncaster
7.1% Birmingham
3.2% Blackpool
.......I don't feel 64.8% positive thats for sure
Forest win - 40.7% chance of relegation
Draw - 32.7% chance of relegation
Charlton win - 19.5% chance of relegation
Obviously those percentages will differ from the above slightly depending on the results of Leicester vs Yeovil, Reading vs Barnsley and Millwall vs Birmingham.
PS We have a 0.00032% chance of making the play-offs. :-)
It shows that our most likely record from our final twelve games is W3-D3-L6, giving us 44 points at the end of the season. That leaves us with roughly a 1 in 3 chance of being relegated (CoR), depending on how the others do. Too close for comfort, every point is pivotal...
CoR on 50pts = <0.1%
CoR on 49pts = 0.2%
CoR on 48pts = 1.0%
CoR on 47pts = 3.1%
CoR on 46pts = 8.5%
CoR on 45pts = 18.6%
CoR on 44pts = 34.3%
CoR on 43pts = 50.0%
CoR on 42pts = 67.0%
CoR on 41pts = 80.6%
CoR on 40pts = 90.5%
91.8% Millwall
87.8% Barnsley
79.1% Yeovil
19.8% Charlton
11.1% Doncaster
7.0% Blackpool
3.0% Birmingham
91.8%93.9 Millwall79.1%91.5 Yeovil87.8%71.2 Barnsley19.8%28.9 Charlton3.0%6.8 Birmingham7.0%4.8 Blackpool11.1%2.8 DoncasterTuesday night:
Leeds win -> up to 35.2%
Draw -> down to 27.3%
Charlton win -> down to 15.0%
SCS predicted table:
Charlton 46pts
Barnsley 42pts
Millwall 40pts
Yeovil 39pts
Doesn't seem to be a place to input them yourself either...
Birmingham 2.4%
Doncaster 8.7%
Blackpool 13.8%
Charlton 23.6%
Barnsley 78.6%
Yeovil 86.2%
Millwall 86.4%
Our percentages after Tuesday night will be:
Charlton win: down to 11.4%
Draw: up to 25.7%
Yeovil win: up to 39.7%
If Millwall lose at Wigan, their L1 chances go past 90%. Barnsley's will go to 85.5% if they lose to Burnley and if we beat Yeovil, they'll be at 95.2% chance of being relegated. It's a huge night of fixtures at the bottom.
Yeovil - 94.4%
Barnsley - 86.4%
Millwall - 63.7%
Blackpool - 22.7%
Doncaster - 17.5%
Charlton - 11.0%
Birmingham - 3.9%
Personally think both us and Millwall will survive now, Blackpool (and Doncaster to a lesser extent) have very tough run ins.
Yeovil - 94.4%
Barnsley - 76.8%
Millwall - 54.6%
Blackpool - 28.1%
Charlton - 25.0%
Doncaster - 18.5%
Birmingham - 2.5%