Peanuts, just want to say that this is probably my favourite thread of the year, absolutely fascinating, tense and hopefully profitable reading! Saying that, the intricies of the model bamboozle me (and I'm doing a maths degree) but the detail contained within it and the knowledge you have behind it are amazing. Here's hoping to another successful year!
It would look a very weird system to a real mathmetician who knows how to do proper regression anaylsis. I'm strictly an amateur statistician but it's kind of worked so far. Got long to go at University?
Peanuts as an avid racing fan and follower of GN in particular, what are yours (or your models) thought on Distances? One of my early memories, if i am correct is, early 70's GN, Gay Trip was a heavily backed favourite but had only won over 2.5 miles? It fell at the first so we never found out!! what are your thoughts on the best distances for a GN winner to have won over previously?
It would look a very weird system to a real mathmetician who knows how to do proper regression anaylsis. I'm strictly an amateur statistician but it's kind of worked so far. Got long to go at University?
I wouldn't go so far as to suggest I'm a "real mathematician" but I'm a finalist, so not much longer left.
By the way, I have a friend who is developing a model for the GN as part of his dissertation. It will be interesting to see if your tips differ, and I'll let you know them when his are finalised so as to compare.
Peanuts, just want to say that this is probably my favourite thread of the year, absolutely fascinating, tense and hopefully profitable reading! Saying that, the intricies of the model bamboozle me (and I'm doing a maths degree) but the detail contained within it and the knowledge you have behind it are amazing. Here's hoping to another successful year!
It would look a very weird system to a real mathmetician who knows how to do proper regression anaylsis. I'm strictly an amateur statistician but it's kind of worked so far. Got long to go at University?
Peanuts as an avid racing fan and follower of GN in particular, what are yours (or your models) thought on Distances? One of my early memories, if i am correct is, early 70's GN, Gay Trip was a heavily backed favourite but had only won over 2.5 miles? It fell at the first so we never found out!! what are your thoughts on the best distances for a GN winner to have won over previously?
I think Gay Trip won it in 1970 (that period's a bit off my radar screen though - he may have disappointed earlier). You're not thinking of Crisp are you? The champion 2 miler that carried 12 stone (and Richard Pitman) and was heartbreakingly pipped by Red Rum in 1973? It's often said (by some eminent racing people/journos) that 2.5 milers are well suited to the GN because of the flat track and pace of the race. There is an element of truth to that because a GN winner on anything other than soft ground has to have enough speed to be able to to travel and stay in touch at what is commonly a gruelling pace. Even so, that is far from being equivalent to the bald statement that 2.5 milers are well suited to the GN. The amazing thing about the GN is the way that the result frequently confounds the experts, perhaps because they spend all winter thinking about and rating horses in relation to "Championship" races over 3.25 miles or less. That's why Mon Mome was a "freak" to them and of course that's why it was 100/1. I would say that the evidence of at least the past 23 years demonstrates that, in simple terms, a horse can win the GN without speed but it absolutely cannot win it without stamina. Facts from the 1988-2011 GNs (excluding the Red Marauder freak race of 2001): All 23 winners had won Class 1 or 2 (or equiv) chases at 3 miles+ (15 had won at 3m3f+). Only 5 had (at the time of winning the GN) won more chases at under 3 miles than at 3m+ but, of these, Papillon and Bindaree had already been 2nd & 3rd in the Irish and Welsh Nationals (resp), Amberleigh House had been 3rd in the previous GN and Dont Push It had come a 1/2 length second in a Class 1 chase over 3.5 miles on soft at Cheltenham (finishing strongly). Of the 50 horses that finished within 20 lengths of the winners in these 23 GNs, only 6 had never won a chase at 3 miles+. Of these 4 were more than 10 lengths behind the respective GN winner. Both of the other 2 (Encore Un Peu and King Johns Castle) came close 2nd in their GNs but had previously come very close to winning Class 1 or 2 3-mile chases. So, IMHO, the first and most important attribute to look for is the ability to get a trip and stamina is crucial regardless of the going. Silver Birch had won the Welsh National on heavy and could justly be called a mudlark but still pipped McKelvey on good ground in 2007. Similarly Bindaree and Royal Athlete won GNs on Good (bordering Good to Firm) and were both sired by Roselier (one of the most successful sires in recent times of GN winners and staying chasers renowned for liking softer ground). Nonetheless, the increasing "quality" of the GN field, brought about by the compression of the weights, will probably increase the demand for speed. Stamina with the ability to travel and stay in touch at a fast clip will certainly be essential requirements on quick ground. For example, Don't Push It was very effective at 2.5 miles, particularly over hurdles, and ran Denman very close at level weights in a novice chase at Cheltenham over 21f. But it won't diminish the stamina demands of the race. Watching an out-and-out stayer like Synchronised beat some supposedly quality 3 milers in the Lexus on decent ground last month shows that if a stayer has enough about him to stay in touch he can eventually grind them down, even over a shorter than optimum trip. Get on board AP!
It would look a very weird system to a real mathmetician who knows how to do proper regression anaylsis. I'm strictly an amateur statistician but it's kind of worked so far. Got long to go at University?
I wouldn't go so far as to suggest I'm a "real mathematician" but I'm a finalist, so not much longer left.
By the way, I have a friend who is developing a model for the GN as part of his dissertation. It will be interesting to see if your tips differ, and I'll let you know them when his are finalised so as to compare.
Ingenious way of repaying a student loan ) Would be very interested to compare notes.
Cappa Bleu - Won Foxhunters at Cheltenham two years ago and fancied to run a big race for that years Hennessey when falling. Not many many miles on the clock following lay off and back to form this season with a win at Haydock followed by a great trial yesterday when finishing third in the Welsh National.
50/1 currently available with Stan James.
The 50/1 all gone. 33/1 still available with Ladbrokes but generally to 25/1 (including Betfair) and following my massive wager Stan James are ducking it at 20/1 :-)
Peanuts, just want to say that this is probably my favourite thread of the year, absolutely fascinating, tense and hopefully profitable reading! Saying that, the intricies of the model bamboozle me (and I'm doing a maths degree) but the detail contained within it and the knowledge you have behind it are amazing. Here's hoping to another successful year!
It would look a very weird system to a real mathmetician who knows how to do proper regression anaylsis. I'm strictly an amateur statistician but it's kind of worked so far. Got long to go at University?
Peanuts as an avid racing fan and follower of GN in particular, what are yours (or your models) thought on Distances? One of my early memories, if i am correct is, early 70's GN, Gay Trip was a heavily backed favourite but had only won over 2.5 miles? It fell at the first so we never found out!! what are your thoughts on the best distances for a GN winner to have won over previously?
I think Gay Trip won it in 1970 (that period's a bit off my radar screen though - he may have disappointed earlier). You're not thinking of Crisp are you? The champion 2 miler that carried 12 stone (and Richard Pitman) and was heartbreakingly pipped by Red Rum in 1973? It's often said (by some eminent racing people/journos) that 2.5 milers are well suited to the GN because of the flat track and pace of the race. There is an element of truth to that because a GN winner on anything other than soft ground has to have enough speed to be able to to travel and stay in touch at what is commonly a gruelling pace. Even so, that is far from being equivalent to the bald statement that 2.5 milers are well suited to the GN. The amazing thing about the GN is the way that the result frequently confounds the experts, perhaps because they spend all winter thinking about and rating horses in relation to "Championship" races over 3.25 miles or less. That's why Mon Mome was a "freak" to them and of course that's why it was 100/1. I would say that the evidence of at least the past 23 years demonstrates that, in simple terms, a horse can win the GN without speed but it absolutely cannot win it without stamina. Facts from the 1988-2011 GNs (excluding the Red Marauder freak race of 2001): All 23 winners had won Class 1 or 2 (or equiv) chases at 3 miles+ (15 had won at 3m3f+). Only 5 had (at the time of winning the GN) won more chases at under 3 miles than at 3m+ but, of these, Papillon and Bindaree had already been 2nd & 3rd in the Irish and Welsh Nationals (resp), Amberleigh House had been 3rd in the previous GN and Dont Push It had come a 1/2 length second in a Class 1 chase over 3.5 miles on soft at Cheltenham (finishing strongly). Of the 50 horses that finished within 20 lengths of the winners in these 23 GNs, only 6 had never won a chase at 3 miles+. Of these 4 were more than 10 lengths behind the respective GN winner. Both of the other 2 (Encore Un Peu and King Johns Castle) came close 2nd in their GNs but had previously come very close to winning Class 1 or 2 3-mile chases. So, IMHO, the first and most important attribute to look for is the ability to get a trip and stamina is crucial regardless of the going. Silver Birch had won the Welsh National on heavy and could justly be called a mudlark but still pipped McKelvey on good ground in 2007. Similarly Bindaree and Royal Athlete won GNs on Good (bordering Good to Firm) and were both sired by Roselier (one of the most successful sires in recent times of GN winners and staying chasers renowned for liking softer ground). Nonetheless, the increasing "quality" of the GN field, brought about by the compression of the weights, will probably increase the demand for speed. Stamina with the ability to travel and stay in touch at a fast clip will certainly be essential requirements on quick ground. For example, Don't Push It was very effective at 2.5 miles, particularly over hurdles, and ran Denman very close at level weights in a novice chase at Cheltenham over 21f. But it won't diminish the stamina demands of the race. Watching an out-and-out stayer like Synchronised beat some supposedly quality 3 milers in the Lexus on decent ground last month shows that if a stayer has enough about him to stay in touch he can eventually grind them down, even over a shorter than optimum trip. Get on board AP!
Peanuts - i thought i was a student of GN but that is outstanding facts and figures!!! You havent mentioned the ability to put in a clear round and lots of luck in running ;-)
Upon review Gay Trip won the 1970 GN and was favourite the following year when it fell at the first! for this year i think Cappa Bleu and Syncronised are the "talking" horses at moment wil bein teresting to see if Le Beau Bai, Qualtitiveeasing, Wierd Al and Curruthers take thair chance as all have a touch of class.
Great to see the old boy Hello Bud run so well in the Betfred Classic at Warwick today, cutting out the pace, jumping beautifully and just succumbing in the home straight to finish 5th. No chance for a fairystory in the 2012 GN (probably wouldn't make the cut even if they entered him) but great to see such a stalwart still loving the job at 14 years of age. Winner Hey Big Spender unlikely to run in GN according to trainer Colin Tizzard - "would not jump well enough".
Oscar Time ruled out with a tendon injury. From a while back, Donald McCain says handicapper has told him that Synchronised will be allotted top weight if he's entered.
Maybe but it would keep the weights down for plenty of other live chances aswell. They will surely enter him to keep their options open, as they did last year. Entries announced next Tuesday (weights a fortnight later). He's going to run in the Irish Hennessy on 12th Feb and if the ground is on the soft side possibly in the Gold Cup (personally I'd be more worried about his jumping style around Cheltenham than over the GN fences). It may be surprising but, statistically, a busy campaign doesn't reduce chances of success in the GN but who knows what JP and Jonjo are thinking. Dont Push It's retirement leaves McCoy with (maybe) a simpler choice and his view on his chances are probably crucial. From my model's perspective, it's too early to say whether being top weight will kill his chances (I know most trend followers would say it must do but, again, look to the near placed horses). It certainly means that he needs to maintain performance levels if he runs at Leopardstown and/or the Festival and he would almost certainly need it soft/heavy. Again it may seem counter-intuitive but top-weights have a better record since 1988 on soft~heavy in the GN than on better ground: The Thinker 7.5-length 3rd in 1989 with 11.10 (Hvy), Suny Bay an 11-length 2nd with 12 stone in 1998 (Hvy) and Hedgehunter a 6-length 2nd with 11.12 in 2006 (official going GS but time definitely suggests Soft). Maybe it's the gruelling pace of quick-ground GNs that does for them generally, though Don't Push It made a valliant attempt with top weight last year.
Peanuts - a completely fascinating thread! Don't suppose you have knowledge of American racing do you? Was thinking of heading to the Kentucky Derby but even from Atlanta its gonna cost a fortune....a cost that could be offset by several big winners!
Cheers Dan. Wouldn't have a clue I'm afraid (they'd have to go round at least twice more to give me a chance) but if you need some folding ahead of May you could do worse than follow some of the shrewdies on this and the forthcoming Cheltenham thread (Addick Addict, JT, ISawLeaburnScore among many others) for tips at the Festival and Aintree. Enjoy the trip - deeply envious.
Can't wait until Cheltenham. Only doing the Tuesday this year, which i actually think is the best day as a whole. Gold Cup not very strong this year. Hopefully Peddlers Cross will hack up in the Arkle as have ante post bets.
JT - That will be another interesting thread, you got to love Cheltenham!! Peanuts - What does your model say regarding " jockeys, trainers and horses, for courses" regarding the GN? The one that springs to mind in recent years is Mon Mome @ 100/1, trained by Venitia Williams and ridden by Liam Treadwell, he is normally 3 or 4 jockey for her horses and wondered if there was a pattern to this type of booking in the GN?
Jockeys - now don't get me wrong. I am not saying that jockeys don't make a difference - how could they not? How could I not have been grateful that McCoy chose DPI over Cant Buy Time in 2010? Or not want him on Synchronised this year (if his stats measure up)? Of course he would make a difference, possibly critical. However, while I would not say that one could not possibly identify a trend, so far my own analysis suggests that, objectively, the jockey does not appear to be a critical factor statistically (or at least I haven't been able to identify a critical characterstic of the jockey). Liam Treadwell had pretty much shared duties on Mon Mome with Sam Thomas and Aidan Coleman prior to the GN and I think it would be difficult to make a case that his booking was material to the result. It's difficult to argue that familiarity with a horse is critical as there are several first-time-on-horse winning jocks (Carl Llewellyn on Party Politics in 1992, Jason Titley on Royal Athlete in 1995, Jim Culloty on Bindaree in 2002 [Carl Llewellyn rode him in all other 39 of his 40 runs under rules!]. And of course, brilliance in the saddle doesn't always mean success, it took AP 15 attempts to win the GN (though he looked likely to do so when Clan Royal was cruelly carried out in 2005) and fellow multi-Champion NH jockey Peter Scudamore never succeeded in 13 GN rides (3rd in 1985 being his best result). Are amateurs a liability? It doesn't seem so. There was an amateur winner in 1989, an amateur runner up last year of course and 54 yr-old amateur John Thorne on his home-bred Spartan Missile finished only 4 lengths behind Aldaniti in 1981. Of course maybe a pro jockey would have won on him but maybe the horse would have dumped him in The Brook. Trainers - same thing. One example: Paul Nicholls - 0 from 52 runners. Races with a good correlation: no surprise really - winners or creditable performances in Welsh National, Irish National, Gold Cup, Hennessy, Becher Chase are very relevant. Not so much the Scottish National [notable exception Little Polveir in 1989] or Whitbread [now Bet 365], despite also being run in the spring. Courses, certainly a factor and overlapping with major staying chases. Of the 44 horses that won or finished within 10 lengths of the winner in the GNs since 1988 (excl 2001), 42 had either won or performed creditably over the GN fences (including Becher, Topham & Grand Sefton) or had won chases at other stiff-jumping left-handed British courses (specifically at least one of Cheltenham, Newbury, Chepstow or Haydock [pre-2007, when they put in removable fences!]) or had won or performed with credit (i.e. not more than 4 lengths behind winner) in at least one of the major staying chases above or had finished within 10 lengths of the winner over fences at the Cheltenham Festival (not necessarily the same year). The 2 exceptions were Lord Gyllene (winner in 1997, who did most of his running in the north and ticked many other boxes) and King Johns Castle (2nd in 2008, who had been a 1.25length second in his only run at 3 miles, in a Grade A chase at Leopardstown, Ireland's main left-handed jumps track [again other compensating factors]). The ability (or not) to handle the GN fences is an interesting factor. There is no doubt that horses either take to the fences (and tend to run well repeatedly) or they hate them. And they can take to them and win without ever having seen them before (countless first-timer GN winners). So, unless a horse has a genuine excuse for its previous run(s) over the GN fences (all) being poor (Mon Mome being the notable case when he finished 10th the year before winning but had had an interrupted campaign through injury and jumped the fences well, just running out of gas), it is a significant negative to have run over the GN fences but never having done so creditably (THOUGH, creditably can include an F or UR if it happened when up with the leaders on the second circuit - Little Polveir and Hedgehunter both won having tipped up late on when with the leaders the previous year and a couple of placed horses have done likewise [Camleot Knight 3rd in 1997 and Black Apalachi 2nd in 2010]). Hope that helps.
Peanuts - Thats quality. This bit reminded me of the great Peter O'Sullevan's commentary in this GN as they were on the run in "54 yr-old amateur John Thorne". Another notable horse, from my early love of racing, that took to the GN fences and got round more often than not was The Pilgarlic 4th in 77, 5th in 78, 4th in 79 3rd in 80, Fell in 81. Othe rhorses that always seemed to run lots in the race were Rouge Autumn, Churchtown Boy, Sunny Lad & Spanish Steps.
Cheers Davy. It is amazing how many perennial GN bridesmaids there have been. Some horses just love the place. State of Play most recently of course but none I remember more fondly than The Pilgarlic. Prompts me to recall another GN winning amateur jockey, American Charlie Fenwick on Ben Nevis in 1980 with the old boy back in 3rd, as you recall. Great memories.
IIRC Spartam Missile won the Foxhunters Chase at Aintree one year which uses the National fences for one lap. Nothing outrageous about that except that John Thorne's stirrup leathers broke so he had to jump that lap over GN fences without stirrups - that was an amazing feat of riding .
Cheers for the reference Peanuts but I have a feeling being summoned for jury service during Chelts week is going to slightly impact on my festival (as well as my attendance at chelts!).
On the GN front there is only one voice worth listening to...the omniscient Peanuts! ;-)
The Thyestes. It is true that Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde both won this Grade A 3 mile chase the season before they won the GN. However, prior to Aintree success, Hedgehunter had run very well in the previous GN and had an 81% success rate in terms of making the frame in his 11 chases, including a 4th in the Newbury Hennessy, a 3rd in the Welsh National and a win over 3.5 miles. No6vv won the Irish National in between Thyestes and GN victories. Since these 2, other Thyestes winners to go on to run in the GN are Homer Wells (PU in 2007), Dun Doire (PU in 2008) and Preists Leap (75L 14th in 2009 and 230L 14th in 2010). On His Own certainly won easily today, despite a couple of novicey jumps. He was a £240,000 purchase by Graham Wylie but in his only attempt at beyond 3 miles (the 4 mile Amateur Jockeys' Novice Chase at last year's Cheltenham Festival), he jumped poorly and was tailed off when pulled up (seemingly without excuse). Maybe he will score in the GN one day but his stats suggest this is at least a year too soon for him.
Comments
By the way, I have a friend who is developing a model for the GN as part of his dissertation. It will be interesting to see if your tips differ, and I'll let you know them when his are finalised so as to compare.
It's often said (by some eminent racing people/journos) that 2.5 milers are well suited to the GN because of the flat track and pace of the race. There is an element of truth to that because a GN winner on anything other than soft ground has to have enough speed to be able to to travel and stay in touch at what is commonly a gruelling pace. Even so, that is far from being equivalent to the bald statement that 2.5 milers are well suited to the GN.
The amazing thing about the GN is the way that the result frequently confounds the experts, perhaps because they spend all winter thinking about and rating horses in relation to "Championship" races over 3.25 miles or less. That's why Mon Mome was a "freak" to them and of course that's why it was 100/1.
I would say that the evidence of at least the past 23 years demonstrates that, in simple terms, a horse can win the GN without speed but it absolutely cannot win it without stamina.
Facts from the 1988-2011 GNs (excluding the Red Marauder freak race of 2001):
All 23 winners had won Class 1 or 2 (or equiv) chases at 3 miles+ (15 had won at 3m3f+). Only 5 had (at the time of winning the GN) won more chases at under 3 miles than at 3m+ but, of these, Papillon and Bindaree had already been 2nd & 3rd in the Irish and Welsh Nationals (resp), Amberleigh House had been 3rd in the previous GN and Dont Push It had come a 1/2 length second in a Class 1 chase over 3.5 miles on soft at Cheltenham (finishing strongly).
Of the 50 horses that finished within 20 lengths of the winners in these 23 GNs, only 6 had never won a chase at 3 miles+. Of these 4 were more than 10 lengths behind the respective GN winner. Both of the other 2 (Encore Un Peu and King Johns Castle) came close 2nd in their GNs but had previously come very close to winning Class 1 or 2 3-mile chases.
So, IMHO, the first and most important attribute to look for is the ability to get a trip and stamina is crucial regardless of the going. Silver Birch had won the Welsh National on heavy and could justly be called a mudlark but still pipped McKelvey on good ground in 2007. Similarly Bindaree and Royal Athlete won GNs on Good (bordering Good to Firm) and were both sired by Roselier (one of the most successful sires in recent times of GN winners and staying chasers renowned for liking softer ground).
Nonetheless, the increasing "quality" of the GN field, brought about by the compression of the weights, will probably increase the demand for speed. Stamina with the ability to travel and stay in touch at a fast clip will certainly be essential requirements on quick ground. For example, Don't Push It was very effective at 2.5 miles, particularly over hurdles, and ran Denman very close at level weights in a novice chase at Cheltenham over 21f. But it won't diminish the stamina demands of the race. Watching an out-and-out stayer like Synchronised beat some supposedly quality 3 milers in the Lexus on decent ground last month shows that if a stayer has enough about him to stay in touch he can eventually grind them down, even over a shorter than optimum trip.
Get on board AP!
Would be very interested to compare notes.
Upon review Gay Trip won the 1970 GN and was favourite the following year when it fell at the first! for this year i think Cappa Bleu and Syncronised are the "talking" horses at moment wil bein teresting to see if Le Beau Bai, Qualtitiveeasing, Wierd Al and Curruthers take thair chance as all have a touch of class.
I'm surprised you haven't been offered a well-paid consultancy for a bookies firm!
In fact, I just just looked out of the window, and sure enough.....
They're off!
No chance for a fairystory in the 2012 GN (probably wouldn't make the cut even if they entered him) but great to see such a stalwart still loving the job at 14 years of age.
Winner Hey Big Spender unlikely to run in GN according to trainer Colin Tizzard - "would not jump well enough".
From a while back, Donald McCain says handicapper has told him that Synchronised will be allotted top weight if he's entered.
From my model's perspective, it's too early to say whether being top weight will kill his chances (I know most trend followers would say it must do but, again, look to the near placed horses). It certainly means that he needs to maintain performance levels if he runs at Leopardstown and/or the Festival and he would almost certainly need it soft/heavy. Again it may seem counter-intuitive but top-weights have a better record since 1988 on soft~heavy in the GN than on better ground: The Thinker 7.5-length 3rd in 1989 with 11.10 (Hvy), Suny Bay an 11-length 2nd with 12 stone in 1998 (Hvy) and Hedgehunter a 6-length 2nd with 11.12 in 2006 (official going GS but time definitely suggests Soft). Maybe it's the gruelling pace of quick-ground GNs that does for them generally, though Don't Push It made a valliant attempt with top weight last year.
Enjoy the trip - deeply envious.
Won't take this thread 'off course' though...
Peanuts - What does your model say regarding " jockeys, trainers and horses, for courses" regarding the GN? The one that springs to mind in recent years is Mon Mome @ 100/1, trained by Venitia Williams and ridden by Liam Treadwell, he is normally 3 or 4 jockey for her horses and wondered if there was a pattern to this type of booking in the GN?
Trainers - same thing. One example: Paul Nicholls - 0 from 52 runners.
Races with a good correlation: no surprise really - winners or creditable performances in Welsh National, Irish National, Gold Cup, Hennessy, Becher Chase are very relevant. Not so much the Scottish National [notable exception Little Polveir in 1989] or Whitbread [now Bet 365], despite also being run in the spring.
Courses, certainly a factor and overlapping with major staying chases. Of the 44 horses that won or finished within 10 lengths of the winner in the GNs since 1988 (excl 2001), 42 had either won or performed creditably over the GN fences (including Becher, Topham & Grand Sefton) or had won chases at other stiff-jumping left-handed British courses (specifically at least one of Cheltenham, Newbury, Chepstow or Haydock [pre-2007, when they put in removable fences!]) or had won or performed with credit (i.e. not more than 4 lengths behind winner) in at least one of the major staying chases above or had finished within 10 lengths of the winner over fences at the Cheltenham Festival (not necessarily the same year).
The 2 exceptions were Lord Gyllene (winner in 1997, who did most of his running in the north and ticked many other boxes) and King Johns Castle (2nd in 2008, who had been a 1.25length second in his only run at 3 miles, in a Grade A chase at Leopardstown, Ireland's main left-handed jumps track [again other compensating factors]).
The ability (or not) to handle the GN fences is an interesting factor. There is no doubt that horses either take to the fences (and tend to run well repeatedly) or they hate them. And they can take to them and win without ever having seen them before (countless first-timer GN winners). So, unless a horse has a genuine excuse for its previous run(s) over the GN fences (all) being poor (Mon Mome being the notable case when he finished 10th the year before winning but had had an interrupted campaign through injury and jumped the fences well, just running out of gas), it is a significant negative to have run over the GN fences but never having done so creditably (THOUGH, creditably can include an F or UR if it happened when up with the leaders on the second circuit - Little Polveir and Hedgehunter both won having tipped up late on when with the leaders the previous year and a couple of placed horses have done likewise [Camleot Knight 3rd in 1997 and Black Apalachi 2nd in 2010]).
Hope that helps.
I'd better load up with some of your Festival fancies to get a head start JT
Weird Al e/w in the GC.
Great memories.
On the GN front there is only one voice worth listening to...the omniscient Peanuts! ;-)
http://www.sportinglife.com/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/01/26/RACING_Thyestes.html
It is true that Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde both won this Grade A 3 mile chase the season before they won the GN. However, prior to Aintree success, Hedgehunter had run very well in the previous GN and had an 81% success rate in terms of making the frame in his 11 chases, including a 4th in the Newbury Hennessy, a 3rd in the Welsh National and a win over 3.5 miles.
No6vv won the Irish National in between Thyestes and GN victories.
Since these 2, other Thyestes winners to go on to run in the GN are Homer Wells (PU in 2007), Dun Doire (PU in 2008) and Preists Leap (75L 14th in 2009 and 230L 14th in 2010).
On His Own certainly won easily today, despite a couple of novicey jumps. He was a £240,000 purchase by Graham Wylie but in his only attempt at beyond 3 miles (the 4 mile Amateur Jockeys' Novice Chase at last year's Cheltenham Festival), he jumped poorly and was tailed off when pulled up (seemingly without excuse). Maybe he will score in the GN one day but his stats suggest this is at least a year too soon for him.
Excited doesn't even begin to explain how I feel!