The stars are aligning at the best possible time. CP has finally thrown caution to the wind and has played 442 in the last two away games. He has given a youngster his opportunity which he's taken with both hands and has injected life and enthusiasm into the forward line. Millwall up next with Yann to return in a 442 at home for a change. Beat Millwall and it's full steam ahead into the playoffs.
It is foolish not to take the chance when it comes, but we can't really say the chance is there yet. I reckon 70 points could be enough this year with the closeness of this league and teams slipping up so often.That would require 23 points. No defeats, 7 wins and 2 draws from our last 9.
Let's look at the factors against us. The big one is that despite numerous attempts to find the right formula, we have only won 4 games at the Valley this season. How is that suddenly going to change? It could improve - I expect it to - but change to winning every game -no.
Then you look at our last three games, which are representative of many of our matches this season. We could have won all three or lost all three. If you are going to go on the sort of run needed, you have to be winning a lot of games comfortably because when there isn't much in it, sometimes it goes for you and sometimes against.
Win next week, and Chrissy can use the next 8 games to prepare for next season. The board need to realise that we are close. very close, to being a promotion side and find some moderate investment that allows us to go up the few notches we need to. Of course if we collapse financially, this could be as good as it gets. It is always eventful supporting Charlton!
Agree with this but I don't want anyone thinking we are already safe and have CP focused on preparing for next season until we are 100% sure of staying up. I don't think 50 points will be enough this season. I'll start relaxing when we have 55 points, not before.
One team makes a late push and that te IMO is Bolton
We should go into each game looking at it as a must win just so we can get to enough points as to be mathematically safe as soon as possible there was an outside chance after the Leicester result that chance came and went
There is nothing wrong with hopeful optimism but the other side of that coin is when it doesn't happen when we have a bad couple of results (which we will again) people turn into suicidal manic depressives and spout absolute bUllshit
Be realistic and maybe you won't be so disappointed
All this talk about 55 points is just daft, here are the points required to stay up for the last 10 seasons: 41, 43, 48, 47, 53, 43, 43, 51, 51, 47.
So, given we already have 47 points with nine games left we only need 7 points from nine games to achieve a points total which no team has gone down with the last 10 years!
More likely that the relegation bar will be set around 49 points (the current points per game of team in 22nd place), meaning we will need 3 points from 9 games!
All this talk about 55 points is just daft, here are the points required to stay up for the last 10 seasons: 41, 43, 48, 47, 53, 43, 43, 51, 51, 47.
I really hope you are right OA but I think this could be the season when a team gets relegated with a record high number of points. Comparing the situation at the bottom of the Championship with just the previous 3 seasons shows:
This season:
Bristol City - Played 37, Points 39 Peterborough - Played 36, Points 38 Barnsley - Played 35, Points 38
2011/12
Coventry - Played 37, Points 31 Doncaster - Played 36, Points 31 Portsmouth - Played 36, Points 27
2010/11
Scunthorpe - Played 36, Points 34 Sheffield Utd - Played 37, Points 32 Preston - Played 35, Points 25
2009/10
Scunthorpe - Played 35, Points 38 Plymouth - Played 36, Points 34 Peterborough - Played 37, Points 30
With the exception of Scunny in 2009/10, who escaped at the expense of Sheffield Weds, the bottom 3 in each season were the ones who went down - which looks promising from our point of view. However, it is also clear that none of the teams below us are far adrift at this stage of the season, which is very unusual, and all are picking up points. The league is closer than ever this season.
That's why I am not comfortable with 47 or 50 points, and why I won't be comfortable until we get to 55. Don't get me wrong - 50 points and we SHOULD be ok, 52/53 points and it is pretty certain - but I just don't think we can relax when we get to those landmarks. just how heartbreaking would it be if we got to 50 or 52 points, took our eye off the ball, and then got relegated?
People often think this is the year when a record points total is needed for this or that, but invariably this doesn't turn out to be the case. Teams go on bad runs and game in hands for bottom teams don't tend to yield 3 points. I fully expect 50 will be enough based on 49 being the pro-rata score so far. But I'm not concerned about relegation anymore. Yes, if we lost our last two, we would have been dragged in, but there is no reason to expect us to lose every remaining game!
All this talk about 55 points is just daft, here are the points required to stay up for the last 10 seasons: 41, 43, 48, 47, 53, 43, 43, 51, 51, 47.
I really hope you are right OA but I think this could be the season when a team gets relegated with a record high number of points. Comparing the situation at the bottom of the Championship with just the previous 3 seasons shows:
This season:
Bristol City - Played 37, Points 39 Peterborough - Played 36, Points 38 Barnsley - Played 35, Points 38
2011/12
Coventry - Played 37, Points 31 Doncaster - Played 36, Points 31 Portsmouth - Played 36, Points 27
2010/11
Scunthorpe - Played 36, Points 34 Sheffield Utd - Played 37, Points 32 Preston - Played 35, Points 25
2009/10
Scunthorpe - Played 35, Points 38 Plymouth - Played 36, Points 34 Peterborough - Played 37, Points 30
With the exception of Scunny in 2009/10, who escaped at the expense of Sheffield Weds, the bottom 3 in each season were the ones who went down - which looks promising from our point of view. However, it is also clear that none of the teams below us are far adrift at this stage of the season, which is very unusual, and all are picking up points. The league is closer than ever this season.
That's why I am not comfortable with 47 or 50 points, and why I won't be comfortable until we get to 55. Don't get me wrong - 50 points and we SHOULD be ok, 52/53 points and it is pretty certain - but I just don't think we can relax when we get to those landmarks. just how heartbreaking would it be if we got to 50 or 52 points, took our eye off the ball, and then got relegated?
I was interested in these statistics provided by Ormiston Addick and Davo55. OA’s figures show that the average number of points needed to stay up over the last ten years was 47, but Davo’s figures show that the bottom three this year are doing better than they were at this stage in each of the last three years. Davo’s conclusion was that “50 points and we SHOULD be ok, 52/53 points and it is pretty certain”. I then found myself looking at the current table on the BBC site - the one that shows the last ten results for each team - and wondered what the outcome would be if each team from 12th down (ie Charlton down) continued accumulating points to the end of the season at exactly the same rate as they have done in the last ten. The outcome would be:
Of course there have been so many changes in form over the season that we can be pretty sure that it won’t pan out just like this as far as the individual team projections go, but I suspect it does give us a good pointer to how many points will be needed to avoid relegation this season, ie around 53.
Poor sides to play. I can see us winning every game except Cardiff. With our decent away form we could even do well there. Just needs Haynes fit vs Hudson. Sides taking points off each other, can't rule it out.
Poor sides to play. I can see us winning every game except Cardiff. With our decent away form we could even do well there. Just needs Haynes fit vs Hudson. Sides taking points off each other, can't rule it out.
Haha, you must be the most positive person in the world !
If we won all 5, we'd be one short I think. 70 -72 will be the total this year - with the lower being most likely. We won't win all 5 anyway - all of our games are too close - so winning 5 is unlikely.
The Championship is a good league though - very tight and more entertainment for your buck. Not too upset to stay in it, as long as we can move forwards as a club.
It doesn't matter whether we are in with an unlikely chance of the play-offs or not we should be playing like we are and going for maximum points...what we do now sets up for next season...and given its been a strange season for the championship who knows what the cut off number of points for 6th place will be...
Comments
We should go into each game looking at it as a must win just so we can get to enough points as to be mathematically safe as soon as possible there was an outside chance after the Leicester result that chance came and went
There is nothing wrong with hopeful optimism but the other side of that coin is when it doesn't happen when we have a bad couple of results (which we will again) people turn into suicidal manic depressives and spout absolute bUllshit
Be realistic and maybe you won't be so disappointed
So, given we already have 47 points with nine games left we only need 7 points from nine games to achieve a points total which no team has gone down with the last 10 years!
More likely that the relegation bar will be set around 49 points (the current points per game of team in 22nd place), meaning we will need 3 points from 9 games!
Roll on Millwall!
This season:
Bristol City - Played 37, Points 39
Peterborough - Played 36, Points 38
Barnsley - Played 35, Points 38
2011/12
Coventry - Played 37, Points 31
Doncaster - Played 36, Points 31
Portsmouth - Played 36, Points 27
2010/11
Scunthorpe - Played 36, Points 34
Sheffield Utd - Played 37, Points 32
Preston - Played 35, Points 25
2009/10
Scunthorpe - Played 35, Points 38
Plymouth - Played 36, Points 34
Peterborough - Played 37, Points 30
With the exception of Scunny in 2009/10, who escaped at the expense of Sheffield Weds, the bottom 3 in each season were the ones who went down - which looks promising from our point of view. However, it is also clear that none of the teams below us are far adrift at this stage of the season, which is very unusual, and all are picking up points. The league is closer than ever this season.
That's why I am not comfortable with 47 or 50 points, and why I won't be comfortable until we get to 55. Don't get me wrong - 50 points and we SHOULD be ok, 52/53 points and it is pretty certain - but I just don't think we can relax when we get to those landmarks. just how heartbreaking would it be if we got to 50 or 52 points, took our eye off the ball, and then got relegated?
I was interested in these statistics provided by Ormiston Addick and Davo55. OA’s figures show that the average number of points needed to stay up over the last ten years was 47, but Davo’s figures show that the bottom three this year are doing better than they were at this stage in each of the last three years. Davo’s conclusion was that “50 points and we SHOULD be ok, 52/53 points and it is pretty certain”. I then found myself looking at the current table on the BBC site - the one that shows the last ten results for each team - and wondered what the outcome would be if each team from 12th down (ie Charlton down) continued accumulating points to the end of the season at exactly the same rate as they have done in the last ten. The outcome would be:
12 Sheff Wed 61 points
13 Birmingham 60
14= Barnsley 57
14= Blackpool 57
14= Charlton 57
17= Blackburn 54
17= Bristol City 54
17= Huddersfield 54
17= Ipswich 54
21= Derby 52
21= Millwall 52
23 Peterboro 51
24 Wolves 45
Of course there have been so many changes in form over the season that we can be pretty sure that it won’t pan out just like this as far as the individual team projections go, but I suspect it does give us a good pointer to how many points will be needed to avoid relegation this season, ie around 53.