Is the real question gambling more money to increase the chance of promotion? Cardiff spent 60 million I understand. Is getting somebody to find the 60mil plus the cost of the club really the real question? Makes the idea that season ticket holders would collectively find £20mil less unrealistic in my view, or equally 'cloud cuckoo'. The game most people seem to want to see played out is to magic up a rich person to come charging over the hill with the cavalry. Maybe that will happen. In the event it doesn't we should batten down the hatches as we try to round Cape Horn ourselves alone. Or....?
Youve won 100 million on the euro millions can get the club with all the debts for 30 million how much would you gamble of the remaining 70 million getting back to the premiership?
Pi55ing myself here. Stick a link up from the mail and people on here will laugh you out the door. The Sun,that's THE SUN pluck some figure out of the sky and everyone gets their calculators out trying to work out where it all went wrong!
40M + 5M does not get you 120M even if you are promoted though. You would have to stump up 45M of equity to buy us and invest, then get amazingly lucky with promotion then you get turnover of 60M first year and 60M over the next 4. Trouble is, you still have to pay costs, which I assume are currently about 15M pa (so over 4 years means 60M costs IF you invest zero extra pounds in that time). Therefore 45M gets you 60M back, a 15M profit, over 4 years, which is less than 10% pa profit and takes a massive risk on promotion and an unralistic view on costs most likely. There is no financial reason to invest in us. You can only hope for a foreign, sugar daddy football lover IMO.
The £40M plus whatever losses are accrued plus whatever investment in player aquisitions to get promoted is the price.
And it secures £120M additional TV revenue guaranteed over five years with lost revenue of £10M solidarity payments/ Championship TV money whilst sitting at the bottom of the Premier League for a season.
Yes, there are additional costs to fund the players but you still have your original £45M because when you come down you look to go up again not just walk away
I think the real question is how much does CAFC need to spend to increase chances of promotion? And what is a yo-yo club actually worth - perhaps one will be sold sooner or later?
Can anyone offer a 100% guarantee that £5m would turn our squad into guaranteed promotion winners?
I, seriously, doubt that £50m would guarantee it.
This logic is, exactly, what makes so many people lose money investing in football.
No disrespect, but it's when I read things like this that I am as convinced as ever that I would never put any of my money in the hands of a supporters' trust.
40M + 5M does not get you 120M even if you are promoted though. You would have to stump up 45M of equity to buy us and invest, then get amazingly lucky with promotion then you get turnover of 60M first year and 60M over the next 4. Trouble is, you still have to pay costs, which I assume are currently about 15M pa (so over 4 years means 60M costs IF you invest zero extra pounds in that time). Therefore 45M gets you 60M back, a 15M profit, over 4 years, which is less than 10% pa profit and takes a massive risk on promotion and an unralistic view on costs most likely. There is no financial reason to invest in us. You can only hope for a foreign, sugar daddy football lover IMO.
The £40M plus whatever losses are accrued plus whatever investment in player aquisitions to get promoted is the price.
And it secures £120M additional TV revenue guaranteed over five years with lost revenue of £10M solidarity payments/ Championship TV money whilst sitting at the bottom of the Premier League for a season.
Yes, there are additional costs to fund the players but you still have your original £45M because when you come down you look to go up again not just walk away
I think the real question is how much does CAFC need to spend to increase chances of promotion? And what is a yo-yo club actually worth - perhaps one will be sold sooner or later?
No disrespect, but it's when I read things like this that I am as convinced as ever that I would never put any of my money in the hands of a supporters' trust.
I see your point but it is only a fiver? Lets face it the Trust is likley to only ever be a Portsmouth "last resort" but I spend a fiver on a pint in London and only get a hangover, with the Trust I get newsletters and emails.
If we take your suggestion of 5,000 people putting in £4k each just how much of a say can each of those 5,000 people have?
It remains to be seen but I can't see how Portsmouth can possibly survive once their parachute money runs out and they have got no debts now. They, even with their massive attendances (for the 4th division), won't be able to fund their squad for very long unless the members of the trust continue to put in more and more money, just like the directors of most clubs do now.
Interestingly, most Premier League clubs have bigger debts than those outside the 'gravy train'.
I can't see any scanerio where a Supporters' Trust can run a club unless it is going to suffer successive relegations until it reaches a point where the stadium becomes too expensive to be maintained and the club has to move.
It is these facts that make me so staggered that fans, genuinely, expect others to put in millions and millions of pounds of their money to bring in more players when those already here are costing more than the club received in income.
I see your point but it is only a fiver? Lets face it the Trust is likley to only ever be a Portsmouth "last resort" but I spend a fiver on a pint in London and only get a hangover, with the Trust I get newsletters and emails.
I'm not talking about a fiver, I was referring to the idea of hundreds or, even, thousands.
£5 is neither here or there, but it will also never give the the trust enough to do much more than print Newsletters - which is more than admirable and provides a voice for fans, just not enough to buy the club.
There are examples of trusts up and down the land, some more successful than others, and some bigger than others. In some of them a model for progress is established, the most obvious being Swansea City who do and have done a lot more than create the odd newsletter. If I were to put money into a trust (and the £5 so far isn't extortionate) then THEY wouldn't be using MY money, rather I would be using MY money, because I would expect, and see to it, that the trust works in the best interest of the long term future of the club.
a rich lone buyer b a rich consortium c we struggle on d we go pop
This exactly mate , bottom line is these clowns need to be bought out, nobody knows wot the debt is exactly , tj as we av said all along only wants to line his pockets , and doesnt give a toss about the club or the fans , since the day they took over ive always said he had a hidden agenda , and never trusted him , we need someone to come in and sort this mess out quickly .
40M + 5M does not get you 120M even if you are promoted though. You would have to stump up 45M of equity to buy us and invest, then get amazingly lucky with promotion then you get turnover of 60M first year and 60M over the next 4. Trouble is, you still have to pay costs, which I assume are currently about 15M pa (so over 4 years means 60M costs IF you invest zero extra pounds in that time). Therefore 45M gets you 60M back, a 15M profit, over 4 years, which is less than 10% pa profit and takes a massive risk on promotion and an unralistic view on costs most likely. There is no financial reason to invest in us. You can only hope for a foreign, sugar daddy football lover IMO.
The £40M plus whatever losses are accrued plus whatever investment in player aquisitions to get promoted is the price.
And it secures £120M additional TV revenue guaranteed over five years with lost revenue of £10M solidarity payments/ Championship TV money whilst sitting at the bottom of the Premier League for a season.
Yes, there are additional costs to fund the players but you still have your original £45M because when you come down you look to go up again not just walk away
I think the real question is how much does CAFC need to spend to increase chances of promotion? And what is a yo-yo club actually worth - perhaps one will be sold sooner or later?
Can anyone offer a 100% guarantee that £5m would turn our squad into guaranteed promotion winners?
I, seriously, doubt that £50m would guarantee it.
This logic is, exactly, what makes so many people lose money investing in football.
No disrespect, but it's when I read things like this that I am as convinced as ever that I would never put any of my money in the hands of a supporters' trust.
I think we talk at cross purposes!
To be clear £40M might be the asking price but has anyone paid that yet? And is the Trust busy collecting that amount to pay someone that across? Losses for the next year or two might be £5M but how many years before securing promotion? No idea what it might cost to improve the squad to secure promotion - you suggest £5M but QPR lost £25M the year they went up so somewhere in between? As you state what is the guarantee or are we just looking to improve chances.
Looking at this and your other posts there is a clear difference between investing in football and throwing money away to appease fans and there is a clear alternative which the Trust would do well to develop... The point of bringing in the Sky Premier League prize illustration is that it shows that even finishing 20th in the Premier League still yields an additional £120M
There is clearly a market in football clubs which is why the current owners took over 90% of the equity and then the Sky / parachute money was more like £80M. It was a three or four year proposition that looked quite tasty if success was achieved and the first 24 months on the pitch has worked!
So I am not sure what it is you are reading for if there ever were a proposition then it would be well thought out with a prospectus to boot.
I see your point but it is only a fiver? Lets face it the Trust is likley to only ever be a Portsmouth "last resort" but I spend a fiver on a pint in London and only get a hangover, with the Trust I get newsletters and emails.
I'm not talking about a fiver, I was referring to the idea of hundreds or, even, thousands.
£5 is neither here or there, but it will also never give the the trust enough to do much more than print Newsletters - which is more than admirable and provides a voice for fans, just not enough to buy the club.
Newsletter was just the start - we're looking at t-shirts, badges stickers and now pens - this could be massive!
None of it. You stabilise things first with some of your remaining money, you buy time and establish security. And then you balance the books!
Correct! Millions went on Pardew and his "transfer policy" as CAFC set a role model for Blackburn and Wolves! Once it is stable you can look at what it might take to improve things on an iterative basis like Swansea or CAFC 1992-2000
The observations of Swiss Ramble (with great graphs) Chicago and New York Addick all formed the basis of articles published by the Trust in March and May. These concluded that TV income is bigger in the Championship but costs are up. Independent sources confirmed analysis that CAFC lost £7M last season give or take... FFP allows a loss of £8M this season of which max £3M can be loans
This isn't very meaningful without knowing the allowable add-backs, which will be significant.
These include investment in youth development, sale and depreciation of fixed assets (e.g. a club’s stadium or training ground), investment in a club’s community scheme, promotion related bonus payments, career ending injury costs, bad debts from other clubs and losses sustained from a defaulting major sponsor.
Agreed very short hand! The point is that CAFC losses are less than FFP limits and that's before taking off £1M depr'n and whatever it costs to run the Academy... For more information read castrust.org/news/newsletters/ Big spread on FFP in there
What I don't understand is how some on here think £40m price tag is gospel but five potential buyers is made up.
Either the whole article is true or the whole article is bollox.
Certain people seem to have an agenda and only want to look at the bad instead of look at the situation (from the outside I may add) even-handedly.
It could be about right. Secured loans (say) £25m existing shareholder investment (say) £15m
The secured loans are well documented. More like £12m than £25m.
However, from recollection this regime didn't set up the deferrals and while I'm sure the bank and former directors would like their money back now, we can't assume they wouldn't roll them over again to the right new owners.
The problem for the owners is their exposure is only going to increase unless they sell and the value of the club isn't going to rise with it unless something miraculous happens.
Total club debts are around £40M of which just £5M is secured against the Freehold of the Valley by the bank which funded the North Upper. The rest of the debt is owed to the new crowd (£15M) Richard Murray (£5M) and the old board (£10M). The last bit has been deferred until promotion to the Premier League is achieved.
That's not right and doesn't add up of itself! The debts to the former directors are £4.4m, unless you think they have been putting in money in 2012/13 (!) and Richard Murray was owed £4.15m at June 30th, 2012, of which only £1.55m is repayable in instalments now and the rest is deferred on the same basis as that to the ex-directors, i.e. promotion to the Premier League. This is all in the 2011/12 accounts.
OK here are the full numbers and why it "doesn't add up" ! Bank Overdraft £2.2M Trade Creditors and HMRC £2.5M Bank Mortgage £4.2M Parent Co. £14M** Directors payable upon Premier League Promotion £8.5M Accruals and deferred income £8M * Other £0.5M Total £40M of which Trade Creditors, HMRC and 50% of the deferred income is short term (<1yr) *Accruals and deferred income will mainly relate to Season Tickets sold before June, VIP monies and grants secured to build the Valley which are released over the life of the asset - I wouldn't class these as creditors as no one is going to reclaim the money! ** Assuming that last seasons losses met by the parent co.
Hopefully it is very clear for all that creditors like HMRC are in a minority which is why administration is unlikely.
I am referring to the accounts and being precise in order to make the following point very clearly:
There are several interested parties in any transaction around selling the club. This is not the world of Goldberg or Jordan where there is no ground and no balancing interests and where the club ends up falling over because they won't deal with anyone until it's too late. It appears that by design all of the current board AND the bank have an interest in securing the best deal for the future of the club and themselves and none of them have any interest in letting a creditor like HMRC become a risk.
All of the numbers are 7 figure so a few grand here or there simply doesn't matter does it? I trust that any deal for sale (or more financing) can be struck swiftly in order to facilitate the continuing rise of CAFC from mid-table 3rd tier back to the Premier League.</p>
But these numbers bear little relation to the ones you posted earlier, do they (i.e. £10m ex-directors' loans and £5m to Murray)? And as you say yourself accruals and deferred income are not repayable debt in the real world, while trade creditors and HMRC are cash flow issues, which are at a peak in July. All season tickets are technically in the figures as debt at this point because the money only becomes revenue as the games are played, i.e. no longer repayable if they aren't for the purposes of the accounts. There is no documented evidence available for the overdraft being at £2.2m to my knowledge, although it may be. In short, £40m is not a real number for the purposes of this discussion.
Harsh! £15M parent co. loans is a consistent estimate coming out of Trust analysis - not sure my figures vary? £5M Mortgage on Valley to pay for North Upper - this is £4M long term + 50% of the £2M under short term bank £8.5M Directors deferred loans - I had this as £10M originally £2.5M Trade creditors / HMRC and £8M deferred income / grants - vital as would be understood by anyone valuing a business £1M overdraft guaranteed by Richard Murray - corrected from £2M as per <1yr mortgage Total £40M - I would assert that is a very valid number to put out as it is from audited accounts not heresay and as such is an accurate baseline. It's comparable with other clubs and is at the mid-point in the division as per analysis by Swiss Ramble, Deloitte and others. As before the numbers clearly state without subjective narrative who the main players are and what skin they have in the game.
Happy to admit that I double counted Richard Murrays debt as it is included in the Director's loans - to be fair the original was off the top of my head! One or two comments offline + Airmans challenge led to a revision.
Bottom line is very consistent - external creditors are not the issue unless the money runs out completely. Perhaps we are better off to let the Board and Bank resolve?!
I think we are all looking for a sustainable future for CAFC - I would hope that I have been consistent in stating that this season is going to very bumpy and that the Trust have not speculated on exactly how this might play out
a rich lone buyer b a rich consortium c we struggle on d we go pop
This exactly mate , bottom line is these clowns need to be bought out, nobody knows wot the debt is exactly , tj as we av said all along only wants to line his pockets , and doesnt give a toss about the club or the fans , since the day they took over ive always said he had a hidden agenda , and never trusted him , we need someone to come in and sort this mess out quickly .
And there be the rub.
1) who? The offers were thin on the ground in 2010. We are possibly in a worse financial position than then.
2) Do you honestly think that any new suitors will have to pass the Jimenez and Slater 'Love for CAFC' test before they are willing to sell?
look carly the bottom line is we are in financial trouble , and wotever figures and numbers people are coming up with i honestly dont care , the people running the club have made a complete hash of things and unless someone comes in with bucket loads of cash , hopefully not as much as they are meant to be asking for we are in sh- t street , worrying times ahead yet again seems to be the charlton way.
Interestingly, most Premier League clubs have bigger debts than those outside the 'gravy train'.
And there, for me, lies the true predicament we and any other clubs who don't have a rich benefactor - if you do invest a fortune on getting to the premiership you won't be profitable up there either.
I see your point but it is only a fiver? Lets face it the Trust is likley to only ever be a Portsmouth "last resort" but I spend a fiver on a pint in London and only get a hangover, with the Trust I get newsletters and emails.
I'm not talking about a fiver, I was referring to the idea of hundreds or, even, thousands.
£5 is neither here or there, but it will also never give the the trust enough to do much more than print Newsletters - which is more than admirable and provides a voice for fans, just not enough to buy the club.
Newsletter was just the start - we're looking at t-shirts, badges stickers and now pens - this could be massive!
If I won Euromillions I wouldn't pay 40mil for a business loosing 7mil a year. If I won Euromillions I wouldn't pay 40mil to enable the toxic twins to walk away with a tidy profit. If I won Euromillions I wouldn't pay 40mil for a club with minimal potential return on the playing staff. I might pay £1.
I think the criticisms of seriously_red's attempts to put down numbers, are seriously unfair. I exclude Airman's comments from that, since he is trying to clarify the numbers. Surely it is better to try and understand the numbers than just to sit wringing your hands? And once you have a decent idea of the numbers you can think about what to do about the situation. Or of course you can sit there still wringing your hands, bickering with your own fellow fans, while both Charlton and English football generally goes to hell in a handcart.
Seriously_red is just another fan, like all of you. He doesn't have privileged information but he's made a bloody decent job of trying to work out the numbers. if like Airman you can point to different numbers, good, post them, SR will take them on board and we will all have better understanding. What is wrong with that?
As to what you do about it, of course the idea of 5k fans putting in 4k now is fantasy, on the face of it. But as Seth says, Swansea are a good example of what can be done, and it is clear that some of their fans put in sizeable amounts. And if big German clubs are 51% in the hands of their fans, then clearly a lot of those fans have put in more than 5 euros too.
It's a reasonable point to aim at those who criticise the Board, "Do you have their money to put in, and will you do so?". But when somebody comes along trying to work out how we can as supporters fill the funding gap, and he gets written off as a fantasist, that is a disappointingly negative reaction. Of course SR doesnt have all the answers now. Give him and the rest of his admirable team time, and they might get there. To my knowledge nobody else in the fanbase is trying.
Just read through after being away yesterday evening. Prague is absolutely spot on & my thanks to seriously_red for taking the time to add something constructive to this discussion.
If the supporters can't afford to buy into the club, perhaps the Trust could start a campaign to fund a player? I think this has been done before? Perhaps others can remember details. I appreciate that this would be an addition to the ValleyGold finance and hopefully it could encourage other supporters to contribute.
Poster on Not606 who apparently used to work at The Sun has said that he spoke to an old work colleague there and they confirmed the story is a rehash of internet forum rumours and CP's latest comments in the media!
Poster on Not606 who apparently used to work at The Sun has said that he spoke to an old work colleague there and they confirmed the story is a rehash of internet forum rumours and CP's latest comments in the media!
Move on!
That a journo at The People decided to coincidentally run the same day...? Hmm, great minds and all that I suppose.
Comments
Makes the idea that season ticket holders would collectively find £20mil less unrealistic in my view, or equally 'cloud cuckoo'.
The game most people seem to want to see played out is to magic up a rich person to come charging over the hill with the cavalry.
Maybe that will happen.
In the event it doesn't we should batten down the hatches as we try to round Cape Horn ourselves alone.
Or....?
Carry on.
I, seriously, doubt that £50m would guarantee it.
This logic is, exactly, what makes so many people lose money investing in football.
No disrespect, but it's when I read things like this that I am as convinced as ever that I would never put any of my money in the hands of a supporters' trust.
It remains to be seen but I can't see how Portsmouth can possibly survive once their parachute money runs out and they have got no debts now. They, even with their massive attendances (for the 4th division), won't be able to fund their squad for very long unless the members of the trust continue to put in more and more money, just like the directors of most clubs do now.
Interestingly, most Premier League clubs have bigger debts than those outside the 'gravy train'.
I can't see any scanerio where a Supporters' Trust can run a club unless it is going to suffer successive relegations until it reaches a point where the stadium becomes too expensive to be maintained and the club has to move.
It is these facts that make me so staggered that fans, genuinely, expect others to put in millions and millions of pounds of their money to bring in more players when those already here are costing more than the club received in income.
£5 is neither here or there, but it will also never give the the trust enough to do much more than print Newsletters - which is more than admirable and provides a voice for fans, just not enough to buy the club.
there are 4
a rich lone buyer
b a rich consortium
c we struggle on
d we go pop
If I were to put money into a trust (and the £5 so far isn't extortionate) then THEY wouldn't be using MY money, rather I would be using MY money, because I would expect, and see to it, that the trust works in the best interest of the long term future of the club.
To be clear £40M might be the asking price but has anyone paid that yet?
And is the Trust busy collecting that amount to pay someone that across?
Losses for the next year or two might be £5M but how many years before securing promotion?
No idea what it might cost to improve the squad to secure promotion - you suggest £5M but QPR lost £25M the year they went up so somewhere in between? As you state what is the guarantee or are we just looking to improve chances.
Looking at this and your other posts there is a clear difference between investing in football and throwing money away to appease fans and there is a clear alternative which the Trust would do well to develop... The point of bringing in the Sky Premier League prize illustration is that it shows that even finishing 20th in the Premier League still yields an additional £120M
There is clearly a market in football clubs which is why the current owners took over 90% of the equity and then the Sky / parachute money was more like £80M. It was a three or four year proposition that looked quite tasty if success was achieved and the first 24 months on the pitch has worked!
So I am not sure what it is you are reading for if there ever were a proposition then it would be well thought out with a prospectus to boot.
For more information read castrust.org/news/newsletters/
Big spread on FFP in there
£15M parent co. loans is a consistent estimate coming out of Trust analysis - not sure my figures vary?
£5M Mortgage on Valley to pay for North Upper - this is £4M long term + 50% of the £2M under short term bank
£8.5M Directors deferred loans - I had this as £10M originally
£2.5M Trade creditors / HMRC and
£8M deferred income / grants - vital as would be understood by anyone valuing a business
£1M overdraft guaranteed by Richard Murray - corrected from £2M as per <1yr mortgage
Total £40M - I would assert that is a very valid number to put out as it is from audited accounts not heresay and as such is an accurate baseline. It's comparable with other clubs and is at the mid-point in the division as per analysis by Swiss Ramble, Deloitte and others. As before the numbers clearly state without subjective narrative who the main players are and what skin they have in the game.
Happy to admit that I double counted Richard Murrays debt as it is included in the Director's loans - to be fair the original was off the top of my head! One or two comments offline + Airmans challenge led to a revision.
Bottom line is very consistent - external creditors are not the issue unless the money runs out completely. Perhaps we are better off to let the Board and Bank resolve?!
I think we are all looking for a sustainable future for CAFC - I would hope that I have been consistent in stating that this season is going to very bumpy and that the Trust have not speculated on exactly how this might play out
1) who? The offers were thin on the ground in 2010. We are possibly in a worse financial position than then.
2) Do you honestly think that any new suitors will have to pass the Jimenez and Slater 'Love for CAFC' test before they are willing to sell?
It's all a massive con.
If I won Euromillions I wouldn't pay 40mil to enable the toxic twins to walk away with a tidy profit.
If I won Euromillions I wouldn't pay 40mil for a club with minimal potential return on the playing staff.
I might pay £1.
Seriously_red is just another fan, like all of you. He doesn't have privileged information but he's made a bloody decent job of trying to work out the numbers. if like Airman you can point to different numbers, good, post them, SR will take them on board and we will all have better understanding. What is wrong with that?
As to what you do about it, of course the idea of 5k fans putting in 4k now is fantasy, on the face of it. But as Seth says, Swansea are a good example of what can be done, and it is clear that some of their fans put in sizeable amounts. And if big German clubs are 51% in the hands of their fans, then clearly a lot of those fans have put in more than 5 euros too.
It's a reasonable point to aim at those who criticise the Board, "Do you have their money to put in, and will you do so?". But when somebody comes along trying to work out how we can as supporters fill the funding gap, and he gets written off as a fantasist, that is a disappointingly negative reaction. Of course SR doesnt have all the answers now. Give him and the rest of his admirable team time, and they might get there. To my knowledge nobody else in the fanbase is trying.
Move on!