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2014/2015 Weekly betting thread

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Comments

  • cabbles said:

    I know there are a few Betfair fans on here. I just read this comment on their facebook page, after they promoted the fact that one punter was waiting on a £1m payout on last weeks FA Cup games. He needed Bolton to win, which they obviously didn't. Is what this guy saying true? If it is, then theres no way id bet with Betfair.

    I wouldn't fancy my chances of trying to get the max pay out of half a million from Betfair, let alone a full million. These are the people who confiscate 60% of profits from anyone with lifetime winnings in excess of 250K on their Betting Exchange. Yes, I said confiscate. They already take 5% commission, which they are of course entitled to, but if you are a long term winner they also confiscate a % of those winnings starting @ 20% and staggering up to 60% depending on profits and number of markets played. The money just vanishes without warning and they have it covered in their small print if you look hard enough. That's right, their is a clause that says they actually have permission to basically take your money from the account if they see fit. They call it the "Betfair Premium." When you complain their logic is to reply that they don't want the big players taking all the money as this will frighten off the smaller players. As if to say that the amateur would prefer to lose their 10 euro to Betfair than to an unnamed punter on the exchange. Rubbish. The small player who loses doesn't care where their money goes and most I'm sure would in fact prefer it to go into the hands of another punter rather than greedy Betfair. They get away with it because winning players are so few and far between and it's the masses i.e. the small losing players who keep the thing going with their ill informed dead money. This is the only money Betfair want. If you are winning they don't want anything to do with you or your money. You are simply not allowed to win. They don't mention this in their advertisements though. They are easily the meanest bookmaking firm in the World and that is saying something as I have dealt with basically all of them. BetUnfair. This post will likely be deleted. They do that quite often on their own message bored also i.e. delete comments that tell the truth. Yeah BetUnfair would just pay out the 1 Mega just like that. Not a chance.

    I can only dream of being someone who has lifetime winnings in excess of £250k :(

    that is ridiculous though. I couldve swore it was common practice in the betting industry to cap at £250k in general?
    I used to work for Betfair and did so for a decade and can clear this up. The £250K cap has nothing to do with this bet and had Bolton won he would have been paid out without any Premium Charge.

    When Betfair first came about the only charge was, indeed, commission on winnings and this ranged from 2% to 5% depending on how much you used the Exchange. What became evident, however, after a few years was that some individuals were making a tidy sum without actually paying much by way of commission.

    How so?

    Well, by using Bots firing hundreds if not thousands of bets at various different markets, these individuals were locking in gains where the book percentage allowed them to lay at no risk a profitable book, albeit a small one each time.

    Think of it this way - ordinary punter, Joe Bloggs, has a winning bet of £100 on Match One so pays potentially £5 by way of commission. He then loses £100 in Match Two. So the punter is down by the £5 Betfair have made overall in commision.

    Billy Bunter on the other hand, by using his Bot, wins £5 on each of the two matches making £10 in total less 50p in commission.

    These Bot users can and do make serious money but they are not unique in this respect. Fast picture users and "courtsiders" also do so because they have a distinctive edge. The way Betfair looked at this was that the exchange was providing the framework and technology to enable these individuals to, in some cases, make millions but pay relatively little for the privilege. Betfair also argued, as mentioned above, that these users were taking all the value but the contrary argument to that is that they provide the liquidity.

    So Betfair invented the Premium Charge. Of course, as there is no real competition to Betfair as an Exchange so they very much have a captive audience. Hence the resentment from those successful punters.

    In closing I am certainly not suggesting Betfair are morally right in going down this road. I am also less than comfortable with the fact that they also, through their Sportsbook, act as Bookmaker.

    AA what's a bot? Sorry mate I'm not familiar with all the terminology sometimes. I use bet365. Is bet fair better?
  • This is one of mine for today....let's hope we can all have a few winners come 5pm

  • Very difficult games to call today.

    Draws

    Millwall
    Wolves
    Sheff w

    3 doubles and a treble
  • Brentford
    Palace
    Huddersfield
    Bournemouth

    £10 returns £507
  • L Block said:

    Spurs to win and kane to score anytime @ 7/1

    Nice win and a good price, well done.

  • Common SCP and Huddersfield
  • Man City the only team letting me down for £275
  • Gooooooaaaaaal Get in
  • smiffyboy said:

    Common SCP and Huddersfield

    Your wish....
  • smiffyboy said:

    Gooooooaaaaaal Get in

    Fingers crossed for you mate!
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  • Get in, thank you lads
  • smiffyboy said:

    Get in, thank you lads

    Well done mate ,
    Great bet
  • cafc4life said:

    smiffyboy said:

    Get in, thank you lads

    Well done mate ,
    Great bet
    How does he do it?????? Well done smiffy mate. I spent so much time pondering on mine today :(

    Oh well, at least the network's proving a rip roaring success and we're playing some of the most entertaining football I've ever seen.....
  • Cheers mate, unlucky with yours wasn't expecting hull to get anything out of that
  • Good picking Smiffy.
  • Brilliant Smiffy, many congrats.
  • Thank you everyone
  • West brom
    Man U
    Ajax
    Roma
    Besiktas

    £10 pays £357

    Although west brom are playing poor
  • Got on 11/1 West Brom at 2-1 down at HT. Looking like I might be in luck
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  • Nearly pulled it off nick
  • cabbles said:

    cabbles said:

    I know there are a few Betfair fans on here. I just read this comment on their facebook page, after they promoted the fact that one punter was waiting on a £1m payout on last weeks FA Cup games. He needed Bolton to win, which they obviously didn't. Is what this guy saying true? If it is, then theres no way id bet with Betfair.

    I wouldn't fancy my chances of trying to get the max pay out of half a million from Betfair, let alone a full million. These are the people who confiscate 60% of profits from anyone with lifetime winnings in excess of 250K on their Betting Exchange. Yes, I said confiscate. They already take 5% commission, which they are of course entitled to, but if you are a long term winner they also confiscate a % of those winnings starting @ 20% and staggering up to 60% depending on profits and number of markets played. The money just vanishes without warning and they have it covered in their small print if you look hard enough. That's right, their is a clause that says they actually have permission to basically take your money from the account if they see fit. They call it the "Betfair Premium." When you complain their logic is to reply that they don't want the big players taking all the money as this will frighten off the smaller players. As if to say that the amateur would prefer to lose their 10 euro to Betfair than to an unnamed punter on the exchange. Rubbish. The small player who loses doesn't care where their money goes and most I'm sure would in fact prefer it to go into the hands of another punter rather than greedy Betfair. They get away with it because winning players are so few and far between and it's the masses i.e. the small losing players who keep the thing going with their ill informed dead money. This is the only money Betfair want. If you are winning they don't want anything to do with you or your money. You are simply not allowed to win. They don't mention this in their advertisements though. They are easily the meanest bookmaking firm in the World and that is saying something as I have dealt with basically all of them. BetUnfair. This post will likely be deleted. They do that quite often on their own message bored also i.e. delete comments that tell the truth. Yeah BetUnfair would just pay out the 1 Mega just like that. Not a chance.

    I can only dream of being someone who has lifetime winnings in excess of £250k :(

    that is ridiculous though. I couldve swore it was common practice in the betting industry to cap at £250k in general?
    I used to work for Betfair and did so for a decade and can clear this up. The £250K cap has nothing to do with this bet and had Bolton won he would have been paid out without any Premium Charge.

    When Betfair first came about the only charge was, indeed, commission on winnings and this ranged from 2% to 5% depending on how much you used the Exchange. What became evident, however, after a few years was that some individuals were making a tidy sum without actually paying much by way of commission.

    How so?

    Well, by using Bots firing hundreds if not thousands of bets at various different markets, these individuals were locking in gains where the book percentage allowed them to lay at no risk a profitable book, albeit a small one each time.

    Think of it this way - ordinary punter, Joe Bloggs, has a winning bet of £100 on Match One so pays potentially £5 by way of commission. He then loses £100 in Match Two. So the punter is down by the £5 Betfair have made overall in commision.

    Billy Bunter on the other hand, by using his Bot, wins £5 on each of the two matches making £10 in total less 50p in commission.

    These Bot users can and do make serious money but they are not unique in this respect. Fast picture users and "courtsiders" also do so because they have a distinctive edge. The way Betfair looked at this was that the exchange was providing the framework and technology to enable these individuals to, in some cases, make millions but pay relatively little for the privilege. Betfair also argued, as mentioned above, that these users were taking all the value but the contrary argument to that is that they provide the liquidity.

    So Betfair invented the Premium Charge. Of course, as there is no real competition to Betfair as an Exchange so they very much have a captive audience. Hence the resentment from those successful punters.

    In closing I am certainly not suggesting Betfair are morally right in going down this road. I am also less than comfortable with the fact that they also, through their Sportsbook, act as Bookmaker.

    AA what's a bot? Sorry mate I'm not familiar with all the terminology sometimes. I use bet365. Is bet fair better?
    Bot is short for "Robot". It is a program that allows a user to not just place multiple bets but to place bets when the percentages are favourable to do so.

    One such example might be if you were "arbing" and by that I mean placing a bet at say 8/1 with a bookmaker and being able to lay that bet on Betfair at less than that price thereby locking in a gain. Bookmakers do it the other way where they will lay at say 7/1 and back that stake back at 8/1 on Betfair.

    Other Bots might be designed to seek out markets where the book is say less than 100% i.e. they can lay every selection for a total of 99% thereby making 1% without risk. This can typically occur in running on a horse race for example. A few years ago Betfair introduced their own Bot called "cross matching" to take advantage of this.

    As for using a bookmaker instead of the Betfair Exchange it all really depends on the market but, generally speaking, for a big football, cricket or racing event you would be better off using the Exchange.

    Please however don't confuse the Betfair Exchange with their Sportsbook as the latter is really just another bookmaker so make sure you click on the Exchange button when seeking out value.

    Hope that helps.
  • Right tonight, I have basically tried to think like @smiffyboy I have gone for.....

    Middlesboro
    Swindon
    Chesterfield
    Northampton
    Huddersfield

    Now he'll prob tell me he wouldn't have picked any of them........
  • just browsing through odds seen that luton are evens against York seems like a huge price, considering its 4th against 2nd bottom
  • Lol @cabbles I've gone for

    Ipswich
    Doncaster
    Luton
    Swindon
    Northampton

    £10 returns £408
  • Arsenal (vs Leicester home)
    Sunderland (Vs QPR home)
    Norwich (us, obviously)
    Birmingham (Vs Millwall home)
    Bristol City (Vs Port Vale home)
    Middlesbrough (Vs Blackpool away)

    £5 returns £91.

    Wish I could add on Luton now PH
  • Cheers Swindon that's my bet over after 11 minutes
  • cabbles said:

    Right tonight, I have basically tried to think like @smiffyboy I have gone for.....

    Middlesboro
    Swindon
    Chesterfield
    Northampton
    Huddersfield

    Now he'll prob tell me he wouldn't have picked any of them........

    Probably one of the worst bets I've ever made :blush:
  • Mines falling apart aswell Luton now 1 down
  • What's the Odds on us not to win another game this season?
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