Unioniste's and Harry Topper's defections mean a significant (from a stats' perspective) rise in the weights at tomorrow's forfeit stage (at least 11lbs). Former winners Monbeg Dude and Mountainous will carry at least 11-09 and 11-03 respectively - definitely too much for Mountainous and borderline so for the Dude.
According to the stats, it will definitely put paid to the chances of:
Gas Line Boy (sorry Fitzy)
Rigadin De Beauchene
Green Flag
Mart Lane
Via Sundown
Hawkes Point
Relax
Benvolio
Victors Serenade
Best ante-post bet:
ONE IN A MILAN at 25/1 (Bet365, Paddy and Ladbrokes) is excellent each-way value and with a great chance of extending the recent record of West Country winners.
4th (8L) last year on heavy, set to carry 10-13 if the weights don't rise again. Record of horses repeatedly making the frame in the race is good and he'll handle the ground whatever the weather - was going well in the GN before departing at 2nd Bechers on quickish ground.
Being backed and if you want 25s you need to move fast (only 4 e/w places at the moment unfortunately).
More selections nearer the time.
EDIT - Paddy's cut him to 16s
3
Comments
First ante-post selection at 25s, ONE IN A MILAN, now best priced 16/1.
With enough defections to guarantee him a run, I've now also backed WOODFORD COUNTY (33/1, Bet365, BetVic and Coral, all 4 places) each way.
Both tick all the boxes and there may be another before the off. Will explain selection screen shortly.
TTFN.
Thanks for passing on the info as always.
Interesting that another trend analyst picks Woodford County as his best bet.
Very interesting read.
He doesn't rate One In A Milan as I do but there are differences in methodology.
I very much applaud him for using a scoring-base system, like a early version of my GN system.
I haven't invested enough time in my WN model to move from an elimination-style, which I aim to do in due course (if I have the time).
On the other hand, I think my screen appears to be a little more nuanced in various ways, e.g. considering "near misses" and applying qualifications to the factors, particularly weight.
That could be very significant this year because, largely by virtue of the top-weight (Shotgun Paddy) having the lowest OR of any WN top-weight since 2002, 50% of the field could be carrying more than 11.00 - a higher proportion of the field than in any of the last 17 WNs (average = 21%).
It has been very difficult to win with more than 11.00 but, most recently, Synchronised did it in 2010 and the last 2 WNs had a 11.03 and 11.12 runner, respectively, within 1 length of the winner.
My screen already seeks to identify those with big weights that could still go well but I'm holding off on a 3rd selection while I complete still more detailed analysis of the credentials of horses that had made the frame with more than 11.00.
This other analysis rates Gas Line Boy as the best bet of the higher weights but, thoroughly admirable though he is, I doubt that he'll be appearing on my betting slip.
Nonetheless, One In A Milan and Woodford County remain firm selections based on my own stat-screen.
More anon.
ONE IN A MILAN (25/1 e/w 4 places) – now best-price 14/1 (SkyBet now paying 5 places)
WOODFORD COUNTY (33/1 e/w 4 places) – now best 20/1 (SkyBet 5 places)
SUMMERY JUSTICE (50/1 e/w [BetVictor & StanJames, both 4 places] or 40/1 [SkyBet 5 places]). Will be much bigger for the Win only on Betfair of course but has to be backed each-way.
Strong Place Potential for MONBEG DUDE but, at 8/1 and with others preferred, there’s not enough each-way juice for me.
It may seem madness to add the rank outsider, slow-as-a hearse 10y-o Summery Justice to the slip but there is “method” to all 3 selections. For fellow staying-chase anoraks and sad stattos, analysis is coming imminently.
Part 1
It must be emphasised at the outset that the WN remains a tricky proposition for trend-followers since younger horses have such a good recent record. Don’t let the length of this post fool you into thinking I have high conviction in the results of my elimination-style WN “model”; rather, it reflects my determination to stay as far away as possible from the mother-in-law yesterday.
Elimination-style it remains but I have employed a slight twist this year because, as noted earlier, Shotgun Paddy has the lowest OR of any WN top-weight since 2002. As a result, 9 of the 20 runners carry >11-00 (more than twice the "normal" %).
At first glance this appears to be a boon for trend-followers, since Weight is a primary factor in most methodologies. However:
a) This is the first Welsh National for at least 25 years with bottom-weight carrying more than 10-00. Only 2 runners tomorrow carry <10.06 but 11 of the last 16 WN winners did so.
b) Moreover, stats show that a big weight alone is NOT an insurmountable barrier to making the frame in the WN. In the last 17 WNs, horses carrying >11-00 have won twice (Halcon Genelardais in 2006 with 11-03 and Synchronised in 2010 with 11-06) and have filled 15 of the 68 1st~4th places (22%). Indeed, since >11-00 runners averaged 21% of the fields, statistically they are not disadvantaged at all; that even applies to top-weights, 5 of whom have made the frame (punching slightly above their collective presence).
Official Ratings provide little assistance as an alternative guide. The last 10 winners were rated 128~152 rated and this year's prospective field ranges in OR from 127 to 149.
Trend-following is never a sure-thing of course but the complexion of this year's race could produce a seriously loopy result, trend-wise.
So, I resisted the temptation immediately to write-off the runners with big weights and started instead with unrelated factors to see how many are left standing prior to considering weight. The “twist” is that, with all criteria, I’ve made exceptions of those that closely match the historic exceptions to the rules and "cut some slack" for those that are borderline failures of single rules - in their cases, look for multiple rule-failures.
So, here goes:
The primary database is all winners and those placed <4L of them (32 horses in total) in the 17 WNs since 1997 but, where appropriate, this is expanded to consider all 68 horses finishing 1st~4th (regardless of distance) in those WNs.
CRITERIA:
1. MAX 60 DAYS SINCE LAST RUN
Of 68 horses placed 1st~4th, all met this criterion.
ELIMINATE: EDMUND KEAN (259)
Borderline: MART LANE (70)
2. MAX 60 DAYS SINCE LAST WIN OR RESPECTABLE PERFORMANCE
Of the 32 WN winners and “near-things”, only 2 had not, within 60 days prior to the race, made the frame or finished <10L in a race under rules or within 30L in a Class 1 chase over 3m+.
ELIMINATE: SHOTGUN PADDY (remote 5th in only run this season), MIDNIGHT PRAYER (disappointing 45L 9th in the Hennessy on seasonal debut), MART LANE (91 days since last win & second borderline) and MOUNTAINOUS (3 ordinary runs since WN win last year)
Borderline: VICTORS SERENADE (77 days) and DARK GLACIER (78 days)
3. YOUNGER THAN 10y-o
Age is definitely a factor. A 10y-o or older has not won the WN for 21 years. Representing 25% of runners in the last 17 WNs, they account for just 13% of the first 4 home, with 2 near-misses (<4L) and 7 more placed.
Those 10~12 year olds that made the frame had all, within the previous 12 months, been placed or <10L in a Class 1 chase over 30f+ or <10L in a 4m+ chase or had won a 3.25m+ Class 1. Only one was a 12 y-o (the inimitable Tidal Bay in 2013) and although 4 were technically 11y-o, 3 of these ran in races delayed by the weather until January and so they were “de facto 10y-os”. The only genuine 11y-o to be placed was Killeshin, 15L 4th in 1997.
ELIMINATE: GLENQUEST (11y-o)
Borderline: REBECCAS CHOICE (11y-o, placed Midlands National 2013 and close 2nd in a Class 3 30f chase in May 2014)
Exception: SUMMERY JUSTICE (10y-o, placed Midlands National [March 2014] & Scottish National [April 2014])
4. AT LEAST 4 CHASES AT 3m+
Only 2 WN winners or "near-things" (Synchronised, 2010 winner, and Sir Rembrandt 2nd in 2003) had run in fewer than 4 chases at 3m+. Both, however, had made strong starts to their chase careers: 3 wins from 4 chases (all distances), including over 3m at Chepstow and Class 1 wins at 3.25m+.
ELIMINATE: BENVOLIO (2 chases at 3m+, one win (Class 3) and never run at Chepstow)
Borderline: AMIGO (3 chases at 3m+, including a Class 2 near-miss over 3m at Chepstow and 7th 18L in the last WN)
5. QUALITY 3m+ CHASE RECORD
All WN winners and all but 2 “near-things” were either unbeaten in chases at 3m+ or (from 3+ chases at the specified trip) had a Win Rate of 50%+ (including <4L near-misses) or 66.6%+ Frame-Making Rate at 24f+ or 26f+ or 28f+ or had been placed or <10L in a National or won a 3m+ Grade 1.
ELIMINATE: GAS LINE BOY, VICTORS SERENADE, DARK GLACIER, EMPERORS CHOICE, AMIGO and HANDY ANDY
And so, having eliminated 7 of the 9 runners with >11-00 according to non-Weight factors, let’s consider weight:
6. WEIGHT: >11-00 - sorting the men from the boys
All of the horses that have successfully carried >11-00 to make the frame in the WN had prior success carrying >11-00 over 26f+ in a Class 1 chase. Though already eliminated, 5 would also have been eliminated under this criterion: GAS LINE BOY, MART LANE, MOUNTAINOUS, BENVOLIO and VICTORS SERENADE. Only SHOTGUN PADDY and MIDNIGHT PRAYER would have been exempted by virtue of their fine runs with 11-06 in the 4m chase at the Festival in March but their elimination under the recent form test was unequivocal.
Of the remaining 2:
ELIMINATE: HAWKES POINT (best run hitherto was close 2nd last WN with 10-00 but form since has been moderate at best and, with a higher mark than last year, has too much weight with 11-02)
Borderline: MONBEG DUDE (with 11-09, according to my model, is just 1lb "wrong" based upon his win a year ago in the Class 1 26f chase at Cheltenham - a finer victory than even his Welsh National win a year earlier)
7. WEIGHT: 10-09~11.00
Even carrying 10-09+ to win or go close in the WN is no mean feat. The 3 horses that have done so in the last 17 WNs (Earth Summit 10-13 won 1997, Bindaree 10-09 won 2003 and Notre Pere 11-00 won 2008) had previously either Gr1 success at 3m+ or had made the frame in a National off a higher handicap mark.
Of the 5 runners with 10-09~11-00 this year, 1 has already been eliminated. Of the others:
ELIMINATE: BENBENS (10-11 – also tipped up last run) and REBECCAS CHOICE (20L 7th in 2013 Scottish National but runs with 6lb higher OR [career-high mark] tomorrow - and already has one Borderline fail)
Exceptions: ONE IN A MILAN (8L 4th in last WN when 11lb out of the handicap, tomorrow’s OR 1lb lower) and SUMMERY JUSTICE (23L 5th of 29 in 2014 Scottish National when 6lb o/h, will run tomorrow off 7lb lower mark)
Continued shortly....
CONCLUSION
BEST FIT TO WINNERS’ PROFILE:
The 3 runners left standing that pass all of the screens and, therefore, my selections for the 2014 Welsh Grand National are:
• ONE IN A MILAN (recommended at 25/1 each-way, now 14/1 – SkyBet 5 e/w places)
9y-o and, as noted above, was 8L 4th in the last WN off a 1lb higher handicap mark, having previously been placed, also on heavy, in the Midlands National. 52 days since last run (a close 3rd in a 3m hurdle), his first since falling at 2nd Becher’s when going well in the GN (wore first-time visor, worn again tomorrow). Local trainer (Evan Williams) is in decent form. It is common for horses to make the frame on multiple occasions in the WN, if given a workable weight. 10-13 is certainly workable for One In A Milan but Conor Ring (also rode him in last WN) takes off another 5lbs.
• WOODFORD COUNTY (recommended at 33/1 each-way, now 20/1 – SkyBet 5 e/w places)
7y-o and set to carry 10-06 (though jockey Michael Nolan takes off 3lbs), has a 50% Strike Rate (wins and <4L) in 6 chases over 3m+, including at Chepstow on heavy, but is 2 from 2 at 26f+, including over Newbury’s stiff fences on soft (last run, 30 days ago). All 5 wins (PtP or under Rules) have been on soft or heavy and, while untried beyond 28f, he should relish the ground and trip. Trained by Philip Hobbs (won the 2009 WN with Dream Alliance) he has tended to be ridden handy and hasn’t faced a big field in chases under Rules. Like Hawkes Point last year, however, Woodford County has won a large-field PtP.
• SUMMERY JUSTICE 50/1 (50/1 BetVictor e/w 4 places, 40/1 SkyBet e/w 4 places)
A 10y-o with only one gear (forwards!) and prone to jumping errors but a relentless galloper and has failed to complete only twice in 17 chases and 4 hurdles. Never raced at Chepstow but has won over Newbury’s stiff fences on heavy. He needs it testing to keep the others within range and a WN on heavy looks right up his street. His last 4 runs on Soft or Heavy over 24~27f read: 3rd (1.75L), 4th (3.5L), Won and 2nd (3.75L).
Carries 10-10 tomorrow, representing a mark of 132; 3lbs lower than when making the frame in the Midlands National in March and 8lbs lower than when a plugging-on 23L 5th in the Scottish National in April, both races on ground too quick for him. Subsequently far from disgraced when a staying-on 6th in the Bet365 (nee “Whitbread”) in April, once again on unsuitable ground.
Trained by Venetia Williams and ridden tomorrow by Liam Treadwell, who teamed up for Mon Mome’s close 2nd in the 2006 WN. Williams also trained WN 2000 winner and 2001 close runner-up Jocks Cross (also a 10y-o in 2001). Treadwell has ridden Summery Justice 8 times: 2 wins, 2 near-misses and placed in the Ayr and Sandown marathons.
Not a selection about which one can be supremely confident, as evidenced by his lack of friends in the market, but he ticks all of the boxes, meets the stat-credentials of 10y-os that have defied their years and made the frame in the WN and, if it does come up testing, 40~50/1 looks very interesting each-way value.
STRONG PLACE POTENTIAL:
• MONBEG DUDE
I was tempted to add MONBEG DUDE to the slip, having backed him when he won the WN two years ago, and he should run a big race tomorrow. But my model rates him as strong Place rather than Win Potential and at 8/1, with others preferred, there’s not enough juice in an each-way bet for me.
Best of luck.
MART LANE (now10-10) was eliminated for non-Weight reasons.
BENBENS (now 10-06) UR’d last time (no WN winner or "near-thing" had tipped up in their last run).
HAWKES POINT (now 10-11 with Sean Bowen taking off 5lbs), according to my model, still has too much weight though it now rates him just 3 lbs "wrong", a couple of lengths behind the DUDE = "big run, no cigar".
Going this morning = "Heavy (soft places)". Going Stick reading of 4.4 - not as testing as 2 years ago when the Dude won (3.8) but more so than last year (4.8 - officially "Heavy"). Sunshine this morning but possibility of showers early afternoon.
One In A Milan 16/1 (5 places)
Summery Justice 40/1 (33s for 5 places) (28s BetVic faller insurance)
With the Dude now at 10/1 with the bookies and over 3 (2/1) on the Betfair 4-place market, I've had a "saver" on him to be placed 1~4 to cover my stakes (hopefully) in the event of a wipe-out of my top 3.
Woodford has come in a lot but you can still get 14s (4 places) with Bet365, Coral, Totesport and BetFred
Summery Justice 33s for 4 places with a number
Only SkyBet of bigger firms pay out e/w on 5. Its prices for these 3: 16s, 10s, 25s
Thanks for the tips PM - fingers crossed again today !
Not so pissed off though as a tip is a tip. Try and be more positive AFKA.
But, if memory serves, they parade in that area while they all warble the Welsh Anthem so hopefully should still get nice a gluey for Summery Justice to reel them in before the line.