What is the handicapper going to do with next years National? If he raises Many Clouds to his correct mark he will not be able to get all 40 runners into the handicap which is what he wants every year.If this is what he wants then the rating he must give Many Clouds will mean he is thrown in and will win next years National.I have gone for the latter theory and backed Many Clouds at 20/1 for next years National!!! Yes madness may have set in and sorry to start next years National so early.
Thought about doing the same killer, at least each way. Smith won't/ can't favour him with any compression that's certain though he could do with the next highest rated. Just depends on the entries and their prevailing ratings. Could be like a pre-2000 GN with a biggish gap from top-weight to next and a bunch out of the handicap at the bottom. Still, even if he's not up to doing a Rummy, record of returning winners making the frame is pretty good. Montys Pass 2004 Hedgehunter 2006 Comply Or Die 2009 Don't Push It 2011 Ballabriggs 2012
It has been bugging me since Saturday what he will do and I thought Many Clouds was an impressive winner with more to come to be honest.Its a great each way bet especially as they are each way the first five which shocked me! I know a year is a long wait and he may not even get there but that's what this game is all about if you want to stay in front.
Thought about doing the same killer, at least each way. Smith won't/ can't favour him with any compression that's certain though he could do with the next highest rated. Just depends on the entries and their prevailing ratings. Could be like a pre-2000 GN with a biggish gap from top-weight to next and a bunch out of the handicap at the bottom. Still, even if he's not up to doing a Rummy, record of returning winners making the frame is pretty good. Montys Pass 2004 Hedgehunter 2006 Comply Or Die 2009 Don't Push It 2011 Ballabriggs 2012
The converse of that is the affect that the National has on the career of the winner. Clearly the fact that the horse's mark is raised and subsequent seasons are geared to returning to Aintree is a factor but it cannot be a coincidence that none of the last dozen winners have won a single race from 98 attempts following their victory.
That said, Many Clouds is younger than most but I just wonder whether Oliver Sherwood's reluctance to run the horse in the race this year was, perhaps, based on the fear of the long term effects on the horse of participating in such a grueling race.
I'm really surprised that the previous 12 winners have not won subsequently in 98 attempts. Food for thought. Will be interesting to see how Many Clouds performs as it's hard to believe he wont win another race.
Thought about doing the same killer, at least each way. Smith won't/ can't favour him with any compression that's certain though he could do with the next highest rated. Just depends on the entries and their prevailing ratings. Could be like a pre-2000 GN with a biggish gap from top-weight to next and a bunch out of the handicap at the bottom. Still, even if he's not up to doing a Rummy, record of returning winners making the frame is pretty good. Montys Pass 2004 Hedgehunter 2006 Comply Or Die 2009 Don't Push It 2011 Ballabriggs 2012
The converse of that is the affect that the National has on the career of the winner. Clearly the fact that the horse's mark is raised and subsequent seasons are geared to returning to Aintree is a factor but it cannot be a coincidence that none of the last dozen winners have won a single race from 98 attempts following their victory.
That said, Many Clouds is younger than most but I just wonder whether Oliver Sherwood's reluctance to run the horse in the race this year was, perhaps, based on the fear of the long term effects on the horse of participating in such a grueling race.
Agree with all of that AA - relatively older age of winners a factor as well. Bindaree last GN winner to win again and was the last <9 yo before MC.
Sorry, just seen you said that. Takes me an age to type on a bloody I-phone.
Only thing I'd add is that a couple of those winners retired immediately or during following season. Also it was no mean feat for those retuning to make the frame with the extra weight given them - a lot in some cases. Nonetheless your point is a good one.
I also have that vision of Many Clouds at the end of the race when he struggled to stand up. The groom was quoted as saying he's always like that post race (apart from in the Gold Cup) and just hope that this physical aftermath doesn't manifest itself in a mental one.
I also have that vision of Many Clouds at the end of the race when he struggled to stand up. The groom was quoted as saying he's always like that post race (apart from in the Gold Cup) and just hope that this physical aftermath doesn't manifest itself in a mental one.
Indeed. I know I sound like a broken record but IMO, while it's a complete co-incidence they belonged to the same owner, it's no co-incidence that both Ballabriggs and MC were visibly in difficulty at the end of their GNs - the 2 fastest-pace GNs since 1996. OK this one was only just faster than the 2010 and 2012 GNs but he was carrying 11.09 and raced handy throughout, as Ballabriggs had. That ground, last Saturday, was too quick and unnecessarily so.
Peanuts: just out of curiosity (and apologies if you have already covered this) do you know what factors disregarded Many Clouds from your shortlist to win or be placed?
Didn't like the combination of youth, (somewhat) lack of chase miles, big weight and no form at 29f+. Simples.....................and, regrettably, bollocks!
Aha- basically everything about it then!? Great effort though chief. Your thread rmains one of the best and most enjoyable on CL and always signifies the start of summer for me. See you in 2016!
Aha- basically everything about it then!? Great effort though chief. Your thread rmains one of the best and most enjoyable on CL and always signifies the start of summer for me. See you in 2016!
Too kind Chief. Glad you enjoy the thread though a whole host of folk make great contributions to it. Yeap, never fancied him to get close - nor Shutthefrotndoor as it happens - also an 8yo. I think it was the age factor that threw the biggest spanner in the works. Having said that, 2nd 3rd 4th and 6th were in the ballpark of where the model rated them and maybe Druids would have been there or thereabouts if he hadn't tipped up. I did see that trend-follower micko70 on OLBG, who's got a decent track record in staying chases and had the Welsh National winner, had Mon Parrain, Night In Milan and Soll for the GN. At least I got a place!
Didn't like the combination of youth, (somewhat) lack of chase miles, big weight and no form at 29f+. Simples.....................and, regrettably, bollocks!
Ignoring age and trip experience, Many Clouds campaign was similar to that of Suny Bay - Won Hennessy, then a run, then 5th in Gold Cup (MC 6th) and finally 2nd in GN, top weight carrying 12 stone.
Didn't like the combination of youth, (somewhat) lack of chase miles, big weight and no form at 29f+. Simples.....................and, regrettably, bollocks!
Ignoring age and trip experience, Many Clouds campaign was similar to that of Suny Bay - Won Hennessy, then a run, then 5th in Gold Cup (MC 6th) and finally 2nd in GN, top weight carrying 12 stone.
Dead right AA. Rated 170 at the time and best run in a modern day GN according to Phil Smith. I was at Aintree for that and I thought it couldn't be any more of a mudbath - 2001 proved it could!
You saying that reminds me of when I backed Just So in 1994. The horse needed 10 miles and a swamp to show his best and came second to Miinehoma - and was one of only six finishers!
LOL, you're right - that was a swamp as well. I hate to tell you this AA but I had both Miinnehoma and Just So - somehow picked them out from those poxy form pages in the Racing Post on the train up there watching the rain tip down. Hadn't had a GN winner since Little Polveir (also on desperate ground - I seem to do better in the wet!) and it was one of those very, very rare, lovely feelings of watching 2 horses battling head to head to the line and not caring which one got his nose in front. Cost me a bloody fortune in drinks afterwards mind and I didn't have another GN winner for 6 years. Happy days.
You saying that reminds me of when I backed Just So in 1994. The horse needed 10 miles and a swamp to show his best and came second to Miinehoma - and was one of only six finishers!
LOL - you have been bloomin' unlucky in this race over the years AA There was only 1.25L between them that day, both well clear of Moorcroft Boy. I bet you used to back The Pilgarlic every year!!
You saying that reminds me of when I backed Just So in 1994. The horse needed 10 miles and a swamp to show his best and came second to Miinehoma - and was one of only six finishers!
LOL - you have been bloomin' unlucky in this race over the years AA There was only 1.25L between them that day, both well clear of Moorcroft Boy. I bet you used to back The Pilgarlic every year!!
I backed Many Clouds in the Gold Cup, didn't think he had a chance over the longer distance so .. didn't back him .. Scots National tomorrow ? .. Al Co and Goonyella
Reported in the Mail today that the GN will be run over a new advertised distance in 2016 after the method of calculating the distance has been changed. It will be officially over 4 miles two and a half furlongs as the distance will now be measured from a point two yards from the inside rail rather than the mid point of the track. I know it was reduced by a furlong two years ago to try and slow the horses on the run to the first fence but this all seems a bit unnecessary to me . What do you think Peanuts ?
Comments
Got the Dude and Royale Knight each way so not too bad.
Took the children to the park in the afternoon and Gary Cahill is at the swings with his little girl.
All that money and they haven't got betting accounts and massive gardens !!
forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/63102/sport-of-kings-discussion-thread#latest
If he raises Many Clouds to his correct mark he will not be able to get all 40 runners into the handicap which is what he wants every year.If this is what he wants then the rating he must give Many Clouds will mean he is thrown in and will win next years National.I have gone for the latter theory and backed Many Clouds at 20/1 for next years National!!! Yes madness may have set in and sorry to start next years National so early.
Smith won't/ can't favour him with any compression that's certain though he could do with the next highest rated. Just depends on the entries and their prevailing ratings. Could be like a pre-2000 GN with a biggish gap from top-weight to next and a bunch out of the handicap at the bottom.
Still, even if he's not up to doing a Rummy, record of returning winners making the frame is pretty good.
Montys Pass 2004
Hedgehunter 2006
Comply Or Die 2009
Don't Push It 2011
Ballabriggs 2012
That said, Many Clouds is younger than most but I just wonder whether Oliver Sherwood's reluctance to run the horse in the race this year was, perhaps, based on the fear of the long term effects on the horse of participating in such a grueling race.
Food for thought. Will be interesting to see how Many Clouds performs as it's hard to believe he wont win another race.
Sorry, just seen you said that. Takes me an age to type on a bloody I-phone.
Also it was no mean feat for those retuning to make the frame with the extra weight given them - a lot in some cases.
Nonetheless your point is a good one.
That ground, last Saturday, was too quick and unnecessarily so.
Yeap, never fancied him to get close - nor Shutthefrotndoor as it happens - also an 8yo.
I think it was the age factor that threw the biggest spanner in the works.
Having said that, 2nd 3rd 4th and 6th were in the ballpark of where the model rated them and maybe Druids would have been there or thereabouts if he hadn't tipped up.
I did see that trend-follower micko70 on OLBG, who's got a decent track record in staying chases and had the Welsh National winner, had Mon Parrain, Night In Milan and Soll for the GN. At least I got a place!
I hate to tell you this AA but I had both Miinnehoma and Just So - somehow picked them out from those poxy form pages in the Racing Post on the train up there watching the rain tip down. Hadn't had a GN winner since Little Polveir (also on desperate ground - I seem to do better in the wet!) and it was one of those very, very rare, lovely feelings of watching 2 horses battling head to head to the line and not caring which one got his nose in front. Cost me a bloody fortune in drinks afterwards mind and I didn't have another GN winner for 6 years. Happy days.
There was only 1.25L between them that day, both well clear of Moorcroft Boy.
I bet you used to back The Pilgarlic every year!!
I know it was reduced by a furlong two years ago to try and slow the horses on the run to the first fence but this all seems a bit unnecessary to me .
What do you think Peanuts ?