In my humble opinion there is no perfect solution. Whichever way the decision will go there will be advantages and disadvantages. But I am quite sure staying within the EU will be the by far "lesser evil" for the UK.
OK thanks. Fair enough. It's an interesting take on it. Different to most "anti EU" arguments.
IA I haven't read many of the posts on here so I don't know your views. Do you see our future in the EU and if you do what sort of Union do you envisage?
At the moment, yes I see the future for the UK being in the EU. The EU is better than no EU and it's better being on the inside pissing out. While I understand the focus of many people (not you) on intangibles like sovereignty, my opinion is that it's what you do with it that counts. I've asked twice on this thread for recent examples of bad things the EU has done to the UK, and, other than the decades-old fishing policy that Dippenhall is understandably concerned with, I've not got any answers for anything since the passage of the Lisbon or Nice treaties. That says to me that the UK is no worse off in the EU. I also asked for examples of negative things that would happen if Britain voted to stay in, but no response to that one.
Norway has full control over its own fishing policy, but, in order to maintain its access to the single market, needs to implement EU regulations, which cover 75% of new laws. It also contributes to the EU budget, but has no control over either.
Leaving the EU would also remove the UK from the TTIP, in the hope that it turns out to be so successful that the USA decides to offer better terms to the UK, and I don't understand why the US would do that (this issue is a concern for Norway right now). Depending on global WTO agreements will get nowhere fast. Going back to some sort of splendid isolation is an option, but it doesn't seem a wise one. In my opinion, the EU is the best show available right now. If it starts doing things against the wishes of British people then my mind might change, but right now I think it's best to stay in. I don't think the world is yet at the point you discuss where everyone has to join a powerful block, but I don't think the country should leave one it's in.
Political harmonisation, if inevitable, would be focused on the Eurozone for at least the next decade. Denmark and Sweden would be as hostile to this as the UK would. The government should be looking to build allies within the union (the above two, plus Finland and Holland would be likely allies - possibly Poland) to protect the people's interests and try to guide the direction of the union.
Thanks for replying, I'm sorry I haven't been able to get back to you before now. I think you make some reasonable points about changing the organisation from the inside with like minded countries but I still wonder how effective any British led grouping would be given the geographical splits within the Union.
I don't however believe that your characterisation of EU opponents as being 'splendid isolationists' is really true. Surely everyone realises that the future of this country relies upon it engaging politically and economically with the rest of the world, the question is whether the EU is the most effective mechanism for doing so?
I think we'll see the EU put under enormous pressure in the coming years and I think it's members will demonstrate that the notion of solidarity is trumped by national self interest. If the end game is as I fear we should keep a healthy distance between us and the 'project'.
I was using the definition of 'splendid isolation' as from the Victorian foreign policy, especially under Disraeli. Under that policy, Britain would remain aloof from European conflicts and differences and instead seek deals with whatever suited Britain best.
"it is the duty of the Government of this country, placed as it is with regard to geographical position, to keep itself upon terms of goodwill with all surrounding nations, but not to entangle itself with any single or monopolising alliance with any one of them; above all to endeavour not to interfere needlessly and vexatiously with the internal affairs of any foreign country."
Because they're a single issue party, UKIP have dominated the debate on Europe, and I think that Nigel Farage would agree with the above quote. Most of the anti-EU posters on this thread would agree with the above too.
I know you see the future in politically integrated blocks, and see the EU as a weak block, but that is not the majority view among people who would like to leave the EU. If you're expecting the UK to apply to become a State of the US soon after voting to leave the EU, you'll be disappointed.
If the UK leaves the EU there are two ways it can go: 'splendid isolation' or join another block.
In my opinion it's naive to think that the UK would be able to negotiate better deals with the likes of the US or China than the EU ('splendid isolation'). I don't understand why a country like the US would give better terms to a country of 60m people than a block of 550m.
The only block that might be viable right now would be the United States. They are not taking applications just now. It would also require joining a currency union.
At the moment, the EU is the best option available, and does no harm to the UK. If that changes, my opinion will change.
"Other parts of the Virgin Empire, such as Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Media" will stay in the UK. As Virgin Media is wholly owned by a company called Liberty Global and not Branson it seems unlikely that this journalist knows what she is talking about. Although it does make sense for a business that does no more than licence intellectual property rights to be somewhere like Switzerland
In my humble opinion there is no perfect solution. Whichever way the decision will go there will be advantages and disadvantages. But I am quite sure staying within the EU will be the by far "lesser evil" for the UK.
Not at all. Far more to gain from leaving the EU than staying within it.
OK thanks. Fair enough. It's an interesting take on it. Different to most "anti EU" arguments.
IA I haven't read many of the posts on here so I don't know your views. Do you see our future in the EU and if you do what sort of Union do you envisage?
At the moment, yes I see the future for the UK being in the EU. The EU is better than no EU and it's better being on the inside pissing out. While I understand the focus of many people (not you) on intangibles like sovereignty, my opinion is that it's what you do with it that counts. I've asked twice on this thread for recent examples of bad things the EU has done to the UK, and, other than the decades-old fishing policy that Dippenhall is understandably concerned with, I've not got any answers for anything since the passage of the Lisbon or Nice treaties. That says to me that the UK is no worse off in the EU. I also asked for examples of negative things that would happen if Britain voted to stay in, but no response to that one.
Norway has full control over its own fishing policy, but, in order to maintain its access to the single market, needs to implement EU regulations, which cover 75% of new laws. It also contributes to the EU budget, but has no control over either.
Leaving the EU would also remove the UK from the TTIP, in the hope that it turns out to be so successful that the USA decides to offer better terms to the UK, and I don't understand why the US would do that (this issue is a concern for Norway right now). Depending on global WTO agreements will get nowhere fast. Going back to some sort of splendid isolation is an option, but it doesn't seem a wise one. In my opinion, the EU is the best show available right now. If it starts doing things against the wishes of British people then my mind might change, but right now I think it's best to stay in. I don't think the world is yet at the point you discuss where everyone has to join a powerful block, but I don't think the country should leave one it's in.
Political harmonisation, if inevitable, would be focused on the Eurozone for at least the next decade. Denmark and Sweden would be as hostile to this as the UK would. The government should be looking to build allies within the union (the above two, plus Finland and Holland would be likely allies - possibly Poland) to protect the people's interests and try to guide the direction of the union.
Thanks for replying, I'm sorry I haven't been able to get back to you before now. I think you make some reasonable points about changing the organisation from the inside with like minded countries but I still wonder how effective any British led grouping would be given the geographical splits within the Union.
I don't however believe that your characterisation of EU opponents as being 'splendid isolationists' is really true. Surely everyone realises that the future of this country relies upon it engaging politically and economically with the rest of the world, the question is whether the EU is the most effective mechanism for doing so?
I think we'll see the EU put under enormous pressure in the coming years and I think it's members will demonstrate that the notion of solidarity is trumped by national self interest. If the end game is as I fear we should keep a healthy distance between us and the 'project'.
I was using the definition of 'splendid isolation' as from the Victorian foreign policy, especially under Disraeli. Under that policy, Britain would remain aloof from European conflicts and differences and instead seek deals with whatever suited Britain best.
"it is the duty of the Government of this country, placed as it is with regard to geographical position, to keep itself upon terms of goodwill with all surrounding nations, but not to entangle itself with any single or monopolising alliance with any one of them; above all to endeavour not to interfere needlessly and vexatiously with the internal affairs of any foreign country."
Because they're a single issue party, UKIP have dominated the debate on Europe, and I think that Nigel Farage would agree with the above quote. Most of the anti-EU posters on this thread would agree with the above too.
At the moment, the EU is the best option available, and does no harm to the UK.
When the single currency came in, it Split opinions even among the people who knew high finance. Put simply, there were no easy answers. My view (put on the Greece thread) was that it would'nt work as interest rates need to be set by individual countries, not a central block, and I feel a bit vindicated now, but that's not to say I knew lots about it. Now the in/out argument for the EU is the same. My view is swayed horribly by the anti-immigration lobby whoseem to loathe everything about europe and feel forever victims. However, when you set that apart, I feel we need to be in Europe financially and as trading partners, and have yet to see an argument which seriously suggests where our exports would go if we pull out. There are always problems in a bunch of countries tied up by the tails, but the idea of us cutting loose 1890's style is bizarre. It's not 1890, and anyway, our splendid isolation did'nt help us any. I say stay in, but I don't pretend to know all or even many of the issues.
Somewhat off topic but still within the EU, but it is nice to see Greece providing Scots with a working example of how an independent Scotland would have worked out for them.
"have yet to see an argument which seriously suggests where our exports would go if we pull out."
Have yet to see any argument that suggests our exports to the EU countries will suddenly stop. What British products are exported to France or Germany is determined by their domestic consumers, not the EU or the politicians.
Will Europe suddenly stop importing Scotch whisky or British technology just because a different trade agreement has to be put in place. Will Germany stop exporting BMWs to Britain one of it's biggest trading partners. Came across this article looking for examples of our trade relationship with Germany:
Pailton Engineering ships precision-steering systems for cars and trucks from its small plant in Coventry, one of countless UK engineering firms linked into the Wirtschaftswunder. The two economies have become entwined, and Britain is the biggest investment destination for German companies, despite having different currencies. The car group BWM builds engines for its BMW 1 and BMW 3 series at Hams Hall near Birmingham that are then shipped back to Germany for further assembly. The engineering conglomerate Siemens exports turbines and a host of compenents made in Britain back to Germany.
This sort of arrangement was going to be impossible we were told by the financial experts if we were not part of the Euro. Those "in the know" were wrong then and just as likely to be wrong today about the after effects of leaving the EU.
What changes would BMW's make if we are not part of the EU? Will BMW want to damage their lucrative trade arrangements with Britain, we buy most of their cars as it is? The French won't stop buying Citroen/Peugeot to take Germany's suplus VWs and BMWs cars off its hands will they?
Me and everyone else genuinely needs to know if it's true and how it will happen, that we will stop importing from the EU and they will ban us from exporting our goods, the UK will grind to a halt and the EU will prosper.
Since 2009 UK exports to the EU increased by 7% and to non-EU countries increased by over 40%. Nearly 60% of our exports are to non-EU countries. The impression that these exports stop just because we need to have a new trade agreement is nonsense. The trade has not been created by the EU, the EU only fronts negotiations and handles some of the paperwork, the exports are down to the efforts of UK businesses, not EU bureaucrats.
Apart from outsourcing the work to agents (EU Commissioners) to pay to get you a deal that you could have got anyway, what is the significant benefit of being part of a large trading block?
Replicating trade agreements is no big deal, just take a copy and change the names and a few numbers on the existing EU agreement - simples. Redundant civil servants would need a new job so they can shuffle the papers to sort them out, so no additional cost.
No. We should invest all of the money we currently invest in the EU into a credible nuclear defense system, increase MOD funding and join the US in making the world a safer place. God save the Queen.
If EU bosses, are prepared to continue funding the Greeks, knowing full well, that their promises, to reform their economy, collect taxes and behave responsibly are likely to be nonsense. They should concede almost anything that Britain wants.
EU rulers, are so terrified, that the EU might break up, they have accepted, the likely, empty promises, from the Greeks.
Britain should now step up its demands for change.
If EU bosses, are prepared to continue funding the Greeks, knowing full well, that their promises, to reform their economy, collect taxes and behave responsibly are likely to be nonsense. They should concede almost anything that Britain wants.
EU rulers, are so terrified, that the EU might break up, they have accepted, the likely, empty promises, from the Greeks.
Britain should now step up its demands for change.
The Greek debt owed to the IMF and the ECB, amongst others, is reportedly some €323 BILLION, a simply ludicrous figure .. the Greek population is around 11.5 MILLION people .. that gives a debt of around €28,000 for every man, woman and child (of either gender) in the country .. they are in the process of paying it back .. errrr .. like f**k they are .. the UK may be expected to fork over some €1 BILLION to help out .. LIKE F**K WE SHOULD
If EU bosses, are prepared to continue funding the Greeks, knowing full well, that their promises, to reform their economy, collect taxes and behave responsibly are likely to be nonsense. They should concede almost anything that Britain wants.
EU rulers, are so terrified, that the EU might break up, they have accepted, the likely, empty promises, from the Greeks.
Britain should now step up its demands for change.
The Greek debt owed to the IMF and the ECB, amongst others, is reportedly some €323 BILLION, a simply ludicrous figure .. the Greek population is around 11.5 MILLION people .. that gives a debt of around €28,000 for every man, woman and child (of either gender) in the country .. they are in the process of paying it back .. errrr .. like f**k they are .. the UK may be expected to fork over some €1 BILLION to help out .. LIKE F**K WE SHOULD
Could Cameron not use this as a negotiating tool on his better terms for Britain in Europe campaign?
If EU bosses, are prepared to continue funding the Greeks, knowing full well, that their promises, to reform their economy, collect taxes and behave responsibly are likely to be nonsense. They should concede almost anything that Britain wants.
EU rulers, are so terrified, that the EU might break up, they have accepted, the likely, empty promises, from the Greeks.
Britain should now step up its demands for change.
I think the worry is more about the collapse of the Euro than the EU, sadly this will only be a bad thing for us.
We owe them that much for the Elgin Marbles don't we?
Bloke I worked with once asked: "So, these Elgin Marbles, what are they made of and who brought them into the UK?" He then didn't understand why we all fell about laughing. Still about what you'd expect for an ex-plod I suppose...
With the Guardian left (Monbiot, Jones et al) turning against the EU, we're now seeing 1976-style alliance between the hard left and the hard right. Not sure whether this makes a no vote more or less likely.
the situation in Greece is stunning. The Greeks owe at least 350 BILLION Euro yet the EU are bending over backwards to keep em in ? thats after they lied about their GDP to get in (get a fecking auditor on board for fuck sake). If the EU will bend over so much to keep Greece in lets stop this total BOLLOX that they dont care if the UK leaves---its laughable that they would let the 2nd biggest contributor leave. If there was a chance of a "no" vote i wonder what they would do to keep the UK in ? Who could pick up the huge shortfall if the UK left ? after bailing out the Greeks who has the dosh to step up ?
This could be the last chance to actually get some sort of a "rebate" from them. Why not ask/demand money to help build the infrastructure of schools/hospitals etc re the 300,00 plus increase to the population yearly of England ?
Camaron cant and wont get any sort of deal--his first opening line with the EU is " i want the UK to stay in the EU but ----".
Some years ago a small rural town in Spain twinned with a similar town in Greece. The mayor of the Greek town visited the Spanish town. When he saw the palatial mansion belonging to the Spanish mayor, he wondered aloud how on earth he could afford such a house. The Spaniard replied: ‘You see that bridge over there? The EU gave us a grant to construct a two-lane bridge, but by building a single lane bridge with traffic lights at either end, I could build this place.’ The following year the Spaniard visited the Greek town. He was simply amazed at the Greek mayor's house: gold taps, marble floors, diamond doorknobs, it was marvellous. When he asked how he’d raised the money to build this incredible house, the Greek mayor said: ‘You see that bridge over there?’ The Spaniard replied: ‘No.’
If EU bosses, are prepared to continue funding the Greeks, knowing full well, that their promises, to reform their economy, collect taxes and behave responsibly are likely to be nonsense. They should concede almost anything that Britain wants.
EU rulers, are so terrified, that the EU might break up, they have accepted, the likely, empty promises, from the Greeks.
Britain should now step up its demands for change.
I think the worry is more about the collapse of the Euro than the EU, sadly this will only be a bad thing for us.
Disagree. If Greece went back to the Drachma, it would have little effect on the Euro currency.
The reason they are desperate to keep Greece in, is because if they go, who goes next ?
They need to keep Europe together, to prevent any Russian threat or any other threat, for that matter.
If EU bosses, are prepared to continue funding the Greeks, knowing full well, that their promises, to reform their economy, collect taxes and behave responsibly are likely to be nonsense. They should concede almost anything that Britain wants.
EU rulers, are so terrified, that the EU might break up, they have accepted, the likely, empty promises, from the Greeks.
Britain should now step up its demands for change.
I think the worry is more about the collapse of the Euro than the EU, sadly this will only be a bad thing for us.
They need to keep Europe together, to prevent any Russian threat or any other threat, for that matter.
No, they don't need the EU to prevent these so-called threats. That was what NATO was for.
If EU bosses, are prepared to continue funding the Greeks, knowing full well, that their promises, to reform their economy, collect taxes and behave responsibly are likely to be nonsense. They should concede almost anything that Britain wants.
EU rulers, are so terrified, that the EU might break up, they have accepted, the likely, empty promises, from the Greeks.
Britain should now step up its demands for change.
I think the worry is more about the collapse of the Euro than the EU, sadly this will only be a bad thing for us.
Disagree. If Greece went back to the Drachma, it would have little effect on the Euro currency.
The reason they are desperate to keep Greece in, is because if they go, who goes next ?
They need to keep Europe together, to prevent any Russian threat or any other threat, for that matter.
Greece going back to the Drachma and it being a success would have a huge effect on the Euro.
I also think, it they do thing properly, the Drachma could work again, with tourists flocking from all over Europe for a cheap holiday.
the situation in Greece is stunning. The Greeks owe at least 350 BILLION Euro yet the EU are bending over backwards to keep em in ? thats after they lied about their GDP to get in (get a fecking auditor on board for fuck sake). If the EU will bend over so much to keep Greece in lets stop this total BOLLOX that they dont care if the UK leaves---its laughable that they would let the 2nd biggest contributor leave. If there was a chance of a "no" vote i wonder what they would do to keep the UK in ? Who could pick up the huge shortfall if the UK left ? after bailing out the Greeks who has the dosh to step up ?
This could be the last chance to actually get some sort of a "rebate" from them. Why not ask/demand money to help build the infrastructure of schools/hospitals etc re the 300,00 plus increase to the population yearly of England ?
Camaron cant and wont get any sort of deal--his first opening line with the EU is " i want the UK to stay in the EU but ----".
Our net contribution is minuscule in the overall scheme of things. It equates to around 7% of the Volkswagen Group's turnover and is remarkably similar to one year's profit made by that business. You think the Germans would REALLY give a crap about our contribution if push came to shove? It would not be a huge shortfall at all: Merkel would just have to rummage around in her purse for some loose change.
Comments
The 1866 quote from the Earl of Derby sums it up.
"it is the duty of the Government of this country, placed as it is with regard to geographical position, to keep itself upon terms of goodwill with all surrounding nations, but not to entangle itself with any single or monopolising alliance with any one of them; above all to endeavour not to interfere needlessly and vexatiously with the internal affairs of any foreign country."
Because they're a single issue party, UKIP have dominated the debate on Europe, and I think that Nigel Farage would agree with the above quote. Most of the anti-EU posters on this thread would agree with the above too.
I know you see the future in politically integrated blocks, and see the EU as a weak block, but that is not the majority view among people who would like to leave the EU. If you're expecting the UK to apply to become a State of the US soon after voting to leave the EU, you'll be disappointed.
If the UK leaves the EU there are two ways it can go: 'splendid isolation' or join another block.
In my opinion it's naive to think that the UK would be able to negotiate better deals with the likes of the US or China than the EU ('splendid isolation'). I don't understand why a country like the US would give better terms to a country of 60m people than a block of 550m.
The only block that might be viable right now would be the United States. They are not taking applications just now. It would also require joining a currency union.
At the moment, the EU is the best option available, and does no harm to the UK. If that changes, my opinion will change.
Thanks for that insight, Mr Keynes.
Now the in/out argument for the EU is the same. My view is swayed horribly by the anti-immigration lobby whoseem to loathe everything about europe and feel forever victims. However, when you set that apart, I feel we need to be in Europe financially and as trading partners, and have yet to see an argument which seriously suggests where our exports would go if we pull out. There are always problems in a bunch of countries tied up by the tails, but the idea of us cutting loose 1890's style is bizarre. It's not 1890, and anyway, our splendid isolation did'nt help us any.
I say stay in, but I don't pretend to know all or even many of the issues.
Have yet to see any argument that suggests our exports to the EU countries will suddenly stop. What British products are exported to France or Germany is determined by their domestic consumers, not the EU or the politicians.
Will Europe suddenly stop importing Scotch whisky or British technology just because a different trade agreement has to be put in place. Will Germany stop exporting BMWs to Britain one of it's biggest trading partners. Came across this article looking for examples of our trade relationship with Germany:
Pailton Engineering ships precision-steering systems for cars and trucks from its small plant in Coventry, one of countless UK engineering firms linked into the Wirtschaftswunder.
The two economies have become entwined, and Britain is the biggest investment destination for German companies, despite having different currencies.
The car group BWM builds engines for its BMW 1 and BMW 3 series at Hams Hall near Birmingham that are then shipped back to Germany for further assembly. The engineering conglomerate Siemens exports turbines and a host of compenents made in Britain back to Germany.
This sort of arrangement was going to be impossible we were told by the financial experts if we were not part of the Euro. Those "in the know" were wrong then and just as likely to be wrong today about the after effects of leaving the EU.
What changes would BMW's make if we are not part of the EU? Will BMW want to damage their lucrative trade arrangements with Britain, we buy most of their cars as it is? The French won't stop buying Citroen/Peugeot to take Germany's suplus VWs and BMWs cars off its hands will they?
Me and everyone else genuinely needs to know if it's true and how it will happen, that we will stop importing from the EU and they will ban us from exporting our goods, the UK will grind to a halt and the EU will prosper.
Since 2009 UK exports to the EU increased by 7% and to non-EU countries increased by over 40%. Nearly 60% of our exports are to non-EU countries. The impression that these exports stop just because we need to have a new trade agreement is nonsense. The trade has not been created by the EU, the EU only fronts negotiations and handles some of the paperwork, the exports are down to the efforts of UK businesses, not EU bureaucrats.
Apart from outsourcing the work to agents (EU Commissioners) to pay to get you a deal that you could have got anyway, what is the significant benefit of being part of a large trading block?
Replicating trade agreements is no big deal, just take a copy and change the names and a few numbers on the existing EU agreement - simples. Redundant civil servants would need a new job so they can shuffle the papers to sort them out, so no additional cost.
/s
EU rulers, are so terrified, that the EU might break up, they have accepted, the likely, empty promises, from the Greeks.
Britain should now step up its demands for change.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/14/left-reject-eu-greece-eurosceptic
If the EU will bend over so much to keep Greece in lets stop this total BOLLOX that they dont care if the UK leaves---its laughable that they would let the 2nd biggest contributor leave.
If there was a chance of a "no" vote i wonder what they would do to keep the UK in ?
Who could pick up the huge shortfall if the UK left ? after bailing out the Greeks who has the dosh to step up ?
This could be the last chance to actually get some sort of a "rebate" from them. Why not ask/demand money to help build the infrastructure of schools/hospitals etc re the 300,00 plus increase to the population yearly of England ?
Camaron cant and wont get any sort of deal--his first opening line with the EU is " i want the UK to stay in the EU but ----".
The mayor of the Greek town visited the Spanish town. When he saw the palatial mansion belonging to the Spanish mayor, he wondered aloud how on earth he could afford such a house.
The Spaniard replied: ‘You see that bridge over there? The EU gave us a grant to construct a two-lane bridge, but by building a single lane bridge with traffic lights at either end, I could build this place.’
The following year the Spaniard visited the Greek town. He was simply amazed at the Greek mayor's house: gold taps, marble floors, diamond doorknobs, it was marvellous.
When he asked how he’d raised the money to build this incredible house, the Greek mayor said: ‘You see that bridge over there?’
The Spaniard replied: ‘No.’
The reason they are desperate to keep Greece in, is because if they go, who goes next ?
They need to keep Europe together, to prevent any Russian threat or any other threat, for that matter.
I also think, it they do thing properly, the Drachma could work again, with tourists flocking from all over Europe for a cheap holiday.
The German PUBLIC dont want to continue to bail out the Greeks let alone take our place if we leave.
It just another "liitle Englander--Little Brit" load of bollox that they dont care of course they GIVE a fuck if we go.