It's the Becher Chase at Aintree tomorrow and there's been no sign of Peanuts Molloy ??!!
.. I am sure that he is quite an elderly Addick ..
LOL....cheeky git.
Good afternoon ladies and gents. Pardon the absence. Not pushing up the daisies yet, just too much vitriole being spouted on Addick-related threads for my liking. Anyhow, to business. It’s a wide open Becher Chase this afternoon and plenty have good claims. As always, I try to look to stats (basic ones in the case of the Becher Chase) to improve percentages. If we’re left with one that’s overlooked by the market (as Oscar Time was last year), so much the better. It may be so again today. With rain due to arrive soon on ground already rain softened, it will likely be a Becher Chase of the gruelling variety this afternoon. We want selections that have proven their ability to handle the fences, have abundant stamina and like to get their toe in. Of the 3 at the head of the market: • Favourite Algernon Pazham is a fine prospect but no 6 year old has ever won the race in 23 runnings. A GN fence debutant he did post a Refusal in gruelling conditions earlier this year. • The ground will obviously suit Goonyella but he did UR at the first in his only attempt at the fences. • Advancing years is no barrier to Becher success and 12 year old Pineau De Re is to be respected but (though Many Clouds will likely put the stat to rest) no GN winner since Bindaree (2002) has subsequently won again under Rules. • No winner younger than 8 in the last 10 years – so eliminate Thunder & Roses and Unioniste. • Of the others with form over the fences: • Dolatulo probably will struggle to get the trip on the ground; • Highland Lodge was 8th in this last year but is 7lbs out of the handicap; • That leaves: SAINT ARE (11/1), SOLL (10/1) and PORTRAIT KING (16/1) SAINT ARE and SOLL both have great chances today. Both run off career high marks - Saint Are is 3 lbs higher than when close 2nd to Many Clouds in the GN. Soll is 7lbs higher than when a tired 9th in the GN. PORTRAIT KING handles testing going and loves a stamina test (Eider Chase winner) and was jumping and travelling very nicely in the GN when departing 3 from home (in touch but getting out paced) on ground way too lively for him (8lb lower mark today, carrying 10 stone). Has recently been bought by Aurora’s Encore’s owners with Aintree success the aim. Given the ground, I will I’ll have e/w interests in SAINT ARE and PORTRAIT KING.
hooray .. 3 cheers for peanuts ... hip hip hip .. nice to see you back .. I was worried that you'd jumped your last fence, hurdled your last obstacle ((:>)
EDIT: and straight back in with an impeccable analysis as always .. great stuff
Cheers chaps but apologies for naff final selections today. Bit rusty ;o) Blanket finishes becoming commonplace for the Becher Chase. Plenty of those on the long-list figured at the death and have to think that PK would have been in the mix if he hadn't jumped into the back of a rival at the last (2nd last?) but hey-ho. COYR.
Cheers chaps but apologies for naff final selections today. Bit rusty ;o) Blanket finishes becoming commonplace for the Becher Chase. Plenty of those on the long-list figured at the death and have to think that PK would have been in the mix if he hadn't jumped into the back of a rival at the last (2nd last?) but hey-ho. COYR.
the ground was the deciding factor .. very low weights took the first 2 places .. Dolatulo and the new boys Greatrix/Sheehan might be the one to watch
Comments
He's not been on since much after the National, I'll try and get in touch offline
Good afternoon ladies and gents. Pardon the absence. Not pushing up the daisies yet, just too much vitriole being spouted on Addick-related threads for my liking.
Anyhow, to business. It’s a wide open Becher Chase this afternoon and plenty have good claims.
As always, I try to look to stats (basic ones in the case of the Becher Chase) to improve percentages. If we’re left with one that’s overlooked by the market (as Oscar Time was last year), so much the better. It may be so again today.
With rain due to arrive soon on ground already rain softened, it will likely be a Becher Chase of the gruelling variety this afternoon. We want selections that have proven their ability to handle the fences, have abundant stamina and like to get their toe in.
Of the 3 at the head of the market:
• Favourite Algernon Pazham is a fine prospect but no 6 year old has ever won the race in 23 runnings. A GN fence debutant he did post a Refusal in gruelling conditions earlier this year.
• The ground will obviously suit Goonyella but he did UR at the first in his only attempt at the fences.
• Advancing years is no barrier to Becher success and 12 year old Pineau De Re is to be respected but (though Many Clouds will likely put the stat to rest) no GN winner since Bindaree (2002) has subsequently won again under Rules.
• No winner younger than 8 in the last 10 years – so eliminate Thunder & Roses and Unioniste.
• Of the others with form over the fences:
• Dolatulo probably will struggle to get the trip on the ground;
• Highland Lodge was 8th in this last year but is 7lbs out of the handicap;
• That leaves: SAINT ARE (11/1), SOLL (10/1) and PORTRAIT KING (16/1)
SAINT ARE and SOLL both have great chances today. Both run off career high marks - Saint Are is 3 lbs higher than when close 2nd to Many Clouds in the GN. Soll is 7lbs higher than when a tired 9th in the GN.
PORTRAIT KING handles testing going and loves a stamina test (Eider Chase winner) and was jumping and travelling very nicely in the GN when departing 3 from home (in touch but getting out paced) on ground way too lively for him (8lb lower mark today, carrying 10 stone). Has recently been bought by Aurora’s Encore’s owners with Aintree success the aim.
Given the ground, I will I’ll have e/w interests in SAINT ARE and PORTRAIT KING.
I have invested.
Whilst you are here,
The father in law has tipped me about the Tizzard trained Thistlecrack.
Know much about it?
EDIT: and straight back in with an impeccable analysis as always .. great stuff
Had us worried for a while there PM - glad you're ok, and good to see you back .
Blanket finishes becoming commonplace for the Becher Chase. Plenty of those on the long-list figured at the death and have to think that PK would have been in the mix if he hadn't jumped into the back of a rival at the last (2nd last?) but hey-ho.
COYR.
Welcome back anyway.