I am not endorsing Donald Trump, but I am now more convinced than ever that Trump (or someone other than Hillary Clinton) will be the next President.
I may be proven wrong, and like I said, that wouldn't bother me in terms of my politics, I think they are both pretty shit, but I just think Hillary Clinton has successfully had her character completely assassinated. Trump doesn't need to do anything anymore. With Trump the questions are generally about him getting in trouble for "telling it like it is" which voters love (don't ever focus on people that will never vote for you), with Hillary, it is always more a question of her character, she seems to be the kind of person that will tell you she got somewhere on a train rather than a car just for the fun of it. Again, this may completely not be the case, but the portrayal of Hillary Clinton in the media is starting to make her less and less unelectable.
Roll on Mr Trump, be kind to us.
With the greatest of respect, the numbers just don't bear that out. This is really anorak stuff, just to warn you, but moral of the story is Clinton is ahead in enough states that were the polls representative of the election (and polls here are FAR better than in the UK), she would win by a landslide.
Second, I think the reason why it feels like there is such a constant attack on Clinton's character is that we are so used to Trump being a nasty, bigoted bully that no one bats an eyelid anymore (and so that we're clear, that plays with the American electorate). Until a couple months ago, for as deplorable as I found many of his comments, he could still claim that he was "just telling it like it is," even if facts didn't necessarily bear that out (for example, Mexico does not send us mostly rapists).
But, when he first suggested that the Russian hack Hillary Clinton's email, and then, most importantly, when he attacked the family of a soldier killed in battle, and not just that, but continued to double down on his criticism of them, the tide turned from him "telling it like it is" to him being a nasty human being. Criticizing soldiers and their families is just something that is not done here, and that is particularly true amongst Republicans who consider themselves the party of patriotism and "Supporting the Troops."
My prediction just under two months from the elections: Clinton will hold everything Obama won in 2012 and flip North Carolina and Arizona. I want some sort of shock prediction, and maybe her ground game is enough to flip Georgia, but I suspect that one may just be a bridge too far.
What is most likely is that Clinton wins but is only a one term President, making way for Tim Kaine or somebody else.
If Hillary Clinton were to be a one term president, be it because of lack of popularity or health problems, and I think the former is far more likely than the latter, I don't think Kane would be in any kind of position to step in (unless forced to should Clinton leave office). He is, by his own admission, boring, incredibly milk toast, lacking in anything noteworthy despite a long career in politics. That's not to say he's a terrible person, there are plenty of politicians who do things who are far worse. But I can't see him winning a general election.
Furthermore, there are various democrats, namely Corey Booker and Elizabeth Warren, on the more left leaning side of the party who are lying in wait. It's one of the many frustrations about Hillary as the de facto nominee going into the primaries--the Democrats have a pretty deep bench with some individuals who have some interesting things to say.
On the Republican side...there isn't really anyone glaringly obvious who looks like winning a general election. When elected to the Senate six years ago, Marco Rubio looked like the golden boy. That said, his presidential run was a disaster, he's barely turned up to the Senate, and he now has a struggle on his hands to retain his senate seat in Florida. He is probably a good example of trying to get too much too soon. Nikki Haley, South Carolina governor and Tea Party darling is the only other person who immediately springs to mind (my knowledge of the Republicans is not as good as of the Dems). She is pretty conservative, but she did take drastic steps such as saying that the Confederate Flag should be taken down wfrom the state house in South Carolina.
Sorry that got quite inside baseball.
Thinking beyond the next election, and based on his frequent appearances on the Bill Maher show, I have always been impressed with Gavin Newsom. With his looks, style and Hollywood connected wife I think he has the potential to be the next Obama/Jack Kennedy. Am I missing something? Why is he never mentioned in discussions about the next Dem presidential nominee?
What is most likely is that Clinton wins but is only a one term President, making way for Tim Kaine or somebody else.
If Hillary Clinton were to be a one term president, be it because of lack of popularity or health problems, and I think the former is far more likely than the latter, I don't think Kane would be in any kind of position to step in (unless forced to should Clinton leave office). He is, by his own admission, boring, incredibly milk toast, lacking in anything noteworthy despite a long career in politics. That's not to say he's a terrible person, there are plenty of politicians who do things who are far worse. But I can't see him winning a general election.
Furthermore, there are various democrats, namely Corey Booker and Elizabeth Warren, on the more left leaning side of the party who are lying in wait. It's one of the many frustrations about Hillary as the de facto nominee going into the primaries--the Democrats have a pretty deep bench with some individuals who have some interesting things to say.
On the Republican side...there isn't really anyone glaringly obvious who looks like winning a general election. When elected to the Senate six years ago, Marco Rubio looked like the golden boy. That said, his presidential run was a disaster, he's barely turned up to the Senate, and he now has a struggle on his hands to retain his senate seat in Florida. He is probably a good example of trying to get too much too soon. Nikki Haley, South Carolina governor and Tea Party darling is the only other person who immediately springs to mind (my knowledge of the Republicans is not as good as of the Dems). She is pretty conservative, but she did take drastic steps such as saying that the Confederate Flag should be taken down wfrom the state house in South Carolina.
Sorry that got quite inside baseball.
Thinking beyond the next election, and based on his frequent appearances on the Bill Maher show, I have always been impressed with Gavin Newsom. With his looks, style and Hollywood connected wife I think he has the potential to be the next Obama/Jack Kennedy. Am I missing something? Why is he never mentioned in discussions about the next Dem presidential nominee?
Probably because he's too young and just not ready for it yet. Definitely one for the future though.
Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin said conservatives may need to turn to physical violence in order to protect the United States against contemporary liberalism.
The Republican governor put forth the controversial suggestion after speaking of the “degradation of society” during an impassioned, 15-minute speech at the Values Voter Summit in Washington, D.C., on Saturday. The provocative comments started to gain national attention at the start of this week.
“America is worth fighting for ideologically. I want us to be able to fight ideologically, mentally, spiritually, economically, so that we don’t have to do it physically. But that may, in fact, be the case,” he told the crowd.
Bevin suggested that if Democrat Hillary Clinton were elected president, she would set the nation on a dangerous course that might require bloodshed to correct. He told the audience that the “candle” of liberty might go out “on our watch.”
To hammer home his point, he paraphrased a famous quote from Founding Father Thomas Jefferson: “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.”
“Whose blood will be shed? It may be that of those in this room. It might be that of our children and grandchildren. I have nine children,” he said. “It breaks my heart to think that it might be their blood that is needed to redeem something, to reclaim something that we, through our apathy and our indifference, have given away. Don’t let it happen.”
This man is well known for his stupidity. Not someone many people pay attention to.
Sounds like the ideal Trump VP candidate. How did Pence get the nod?
You usually choose a running mate to balance the ticket or to help win specific states. Even though the Democrats aren't handicapped by a black candidate I'm pretty sure Kentucky will remain red. You could argue that he'd soften Trump's image with liberal voters though ;-)
I really think Hillary will wipe the floor with Trump. Currently Trump is marginally ahead in 3 republican states where they are usually leading by a lot more.
I heard a great, short conversation on LBC the other day. It was the prelude to a longer section on Trump and Clinton's competence and ability to hold the office of President. One, seemingly innocuous question, followed by one tantalising answer. It went like this...
Question: "Will the next Presient of the United States be Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?"
Is it some kind of joke by elite financial powers to see if America will put a fucking moron in charge??? Are they experimenting to see if society are THAT stupid??
This man is well known for his stupidity. Not someone many people pay attention to.
Sounds like the ideal Trump VP candidate. How did Pence get the nod?
You usually choose a running mate to balance the ticket or to help win specific states. Even though the Democrats aren't handicapped by a black candidate I'm pretty sure Kentucky will remain red. You could argue that he'd soften Trump's image with liberal voters though ;-)
I think maybe my attempt at humour there was a little too subtle
I really think Hillary will wipe the floor with Trump. Currently Trump is marginally ahead in 3 republican states where they are usually leading by a lot more.
You can get 4/7 on exactly that. It's telling that her odds are still so comparatively long given who her opponent is. Personally I feel that if she can hold it together physically she'll win but if ever a candidate was going to make people shy about telling pollsters who they're voting for it's Trump.
What is most likely is that Clinton wins but is only a one term President, making way for Tim Kaine or somebody else.
If Hillary Clinton were to be a one term president, be it because of lack of popularity or health problems, and I think the former is far more likely than the latter, I don't think Kane would be in any kind of position to step in (unless forced to should Clinton leave office). He is, by his own admission, boring, incredibly milk toast, lacking in anything noteworthy despite a long career in politics. That's not to say he's a terrible person, there are plenty of politicians who do things who are far worse. But I can't see him winning a general election.
Furthermore, there are various democrats, namely Corey Booker and Elizabeth Warren, on the more left leaning side of the party who are lying in wait. It's one of the many frustrations about Hillary as the de facto nominee going into the primaries--the Democrats have a pretty deep bench with some individuals who have some interesting things to say.
On the Republican side...there isn't really anyone glaringly obvious who looks like winning a general election. When elected to the Senate six years ago, Marco Rubio looked like the golden boy. That said, his presidential run was a disaster, he's barely turned up to the Senate, and he now has a struggle on his hands to retain his senate seat in Florida. He is probably a good example of trying to get too much too soon. Nikki Haley, South Carolina governor and Tea Party darling is the only other person who immediately springs to mind (my knowledge of the Republicans is not as good as of the Dems). She is pretty conservative, but she did take drastic steps such as saying that the Confederate Flag should be taken down wfrom the state house in South Carolina.
Sorry that got quite inside baseball.
Thinking beyond the next election, and based on his frequent appearances on the Bill Maher show, I have always been impressed with Gavin Newsom. With his looks, style and Hollywood connected wife I think he has the potential to be the next Obama/Jack Kennedy. Am I missing something? Why is he never mentioned in discussions about the next Dem presidential nominee?
Probably because he's too young and just not ready for it yet. Definitely one for the future though.
Agreed, next Governor of California (currently the Lt. Governor), and then from there expect to start to hear rumbles. The only offices he's held thus far are Lt. Governor of CA and Mayor of San Francisco so as Rob says, still very much early doors.
Sky Atlantic are now showing The Bill Maher show on Monday nights. It is on now. That is great news going into the elections.
I can only take him in small doses, but he gets good, interesting, and at times quite diverse guests. For those who haven't seen it, it is worth giving it a try.
It's not even that it's corrupt. Well it is. But we've allowed money to play such a prominent part LEGALLY that it's so difficult to remember what some sort of uncorrupt politics looks like.
That Closer Look is just great. Donald Trump is truly awful. It amazes me that he has got to where he has, and the thought of that hideous freak in the White House truly appals me. Hilary Clinton may have more scandals in her closet than shoes, but at least she can appear statesman like. Trump just comes across as a small minded arsehole.
It's not even that it's corrupt. Well it is. But we've allowed money to play such a prominent part LEGALLY that it's so difficult to remember what some sort of uncorrupt politics looks like.
Also Trump got shutdown whilst trying to make a political speech in Flint, even when told he was not wanted, after visiting a waterplant station that had been shutdown due to lead poisoning. Thousands of people without drinking water and the government quibbling over replacing the infrastructure that will enable people of Flint to drink from their taps.
Trump is well under 2/1 now. Tonight is a free hit for him as his supporters will forgive him any gaff and the expectations of almost everyone else are so low. If it's clear that Hillary's mental and physical health is a problem, her campaign will be over.
Comments
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-polls-and-demographics-disagree/
Second, I think the reason why it feels like there is such a constant attack on Clinton's character is that we are so used to Trump being a nasty, bigoted bully that no one bats an eyelid anymore (and so that we're clear, that plays with the American electorate). Until a couple months ago, for as deplorable as I found many of his comments, he could still claim that he was "just telling it like it is," even if facts didn't necessarily bear that out (for example, Mexico does not send us mostly rapists).
But, when he first suggested that the Russian hack Hillary Clinton's email, and then, most importantly, when he attacked the family of a soldier killed in battle, and not just that, but continued to double down on his criticism of them, the tide turned from him "telling it like it is" to him being a nasty human being. Criticizing soldiers and their families is just something that is not done here, and that is particularly true amongst Republicans who consider themselves the party of patriotism and "Supporting the Troops."
My prediction just under two months from the elections: Clinton will hold everything Obama won in 2012 and flip North Carolina and Arizona. I want some sort of shock prediction, and maybe her ground game is enough to flip Georgia, but I suspect that one may just be a bridge too far.
Question: "Will the next Presient of the United States be Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?"
Answer: "No".
It was the metal falling from her trouser leg, the 'short circuit' and now that video about the iced coffee...
Ad Victoriam
Donald Trump is truly awful. It amazes me that he has got to where he has, and the thought of that hideous freak in the White House truly appals me.
Hilary Clinton may have more scandals in her closet than shoes, but at least she can appear statesman like.
Trump just comes across as a small minded arsehole.
Good luck the world
jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2016/09/14/report-lead-paint-makers-helped-gov-walker/90349256/
Also Trump got shutdown whilst trying to make a political speech in Flint, even when told he was not wanted, after visiting a waterplant station that had been shutdown due to lead poisoning. Thousands of people without drinking water and the government quibbling over replacing the infrastructure that will enable people of Flint to drink from their taps.