Currently in New York, today I've seen homeless people with cards saying "give me a dollar or I'll vote for Trump" and also a handful of people wearing the "Make America Great Again" hats.
A few of the people I've spoken to here seem genuinely terrified of Trump though, I think it's going to be really close.
Just read the story. He should be toast but his odds haven't twitched. I suspect the only thing that will stop him is a bullet.
In a normal election and a normal world yes but I just don't think that, at this point, things he's said in the past can hurt him all that much. I think there's just so much there that, apart from small chunks of the electorate, we're all kind of numb to it and/or it doesn't change our opinion of him. Add to this the fact that news cycles last anywhere from 6-48 hours, and I don't think this will matter that much. With the ongoing coverage of Hurricane Matthew, and the fact that tomorrow will see a news coverage shift to debate build-up (already happening for some), I'm not convinced this will matter*
*I reserve the right to be wrong about this if Hillary uses this tactically in campaign ads. That said, it's so crass and explicit, it's almost too crass to use in a campaign ad (because of TV/radio decency standards).
Also worth noting that there's usually about a week's turnaround between something happening and the polls moving, which is why we're now seeing the result of the first presidential debate in polls:
Just read the story. He should be toast but his odds haven't twitched. I suspect the only thing that will stop him is a bullet.
In a normal election and a normal world yes but I just don't think that, at this point, things he's said in the past can hurt him all that much. I think there's just so much there that, apart from small chunks of the electorate, we're all kind of numb to it and/or it doesn't change our opinion of him. Add to this the fact that news cycles last anywhere from 6-48 hours, and I don't think this will matter that much. With the ongoing coverage of Hurricane Matthew, and the fact that tomorrow will see a news coverage shift to debate build-up (already happening for some), I'm not convinced this will matter*
*I reserve the right to be wrong about this if Hillary uses this tactically in campaign ads. That said, it's so crass and explicit, it's almost too crass to use in a campaign ad (because of TV/radio decency standards).
Also worth noting that there's usually about a week's turnaround between something happening and the polls moving, which is why we're now seeing the result of the first presidential debate in polls:
This could be it for Trump: the amount of condemnation from his own party shows how repulsive his comments are and how much they want to distance themselves from him. If Clinton herself was not such a divisive figure figure this would be a whitewash of an election.
Trump is like a horror movie monster. You think you've killed him but he keeps coming back. The graph below is his betting odds during the campaign. He's recovered from similar falls before.
This could be it for Trump: the amount of condemnation from his own party shows how repulsive his comments are and how much they want to distance themselves from him. If Clinton herself was not such a divisive figure figure this would be a whitewash of an election.
On the other hand would other Republicans have stood a good chance against Clinton?
Marco Rubio would probably have been a more unifying figure for the Republicans than Trump, although some of Trump's more deranged supporters would not have backed him due to his Latino heritage.
Republican Party hierarchy would love to drop Trump but Would likely split the Republican vote. In addition to the not paying taxes for 19 years, it is difficult to see how Trump can come back.
Nicely put and presented by Bob there. Hilary Clinton may be many things, but at least she has the decency to sound statesmanlike, and to take the role seriously. Donald, on the other hand, is all bluster and blather. I hope she buries him in this election, because it would feel a touch safer having someone mostly adult in the White House, rather than someone with the manners and brains of a chimp. ( no disrespect to chimps intended)
How a man that has probably got more skeletons in his cupboard than a city morgue got this far is quite astounding.
How desperate must his supporters be to have ignored those skeltons and to have propelled him so far. The world is already pretty dystopian for huge swathes of the electorate and I find it hard to be optimistic about the future whether or not Trump wins.
If he's smart enough he can limit the damage by turning this around onto Bill Clinton and the sordid nature of the Clintons "past"
I doubt this will materially impact on his already faltering campaign. Certainly Hillary needs to tread carefully attacking him on this one otherwise she might end up with a bit of egg on her face too.
If he's smart enough he can limit the damage by turning this around onto Bill Clinton and the sordid nature of the Clintons "past"
I doubt this will materially impact on his already faltering campaign. Certainly Hillary needs to tread carefully attacking him on this one otherwise she might end up with a bit of egg on her face too.
If he's smart enough he can limit the damage by turning this around onto Bill Clinton and the sordid nature of the Clintons "past"
I doubt this will materially impact on his already faltering campaign. Certainly Hillary needs to tread carefully attacking him on this one otherwise she might end up with a bit of egg on her face too.
Facinating stuff.
There are so many things wrong with this post, starting with the first four words
If he's smart enough he can limit the damage by turning this around onto Bill Clinton and the sordid nature of the Clintons "past"
I doubt this will materially impact on his already faltering campaign. Certainly Hillary needs to tread carefully attacking him on this one otherwise she might end up with a bit of egg on her face too.
Facinating stuff.
There are so many things wrong with this post, starting with the first four words
If he's smart enough he can limit the damage by turning this around onto Bill Clinton and the sordid nature of the Clintons "past"
I doubt this will materially impact on his already faltering campaign. Certainly Hillary needs to tread carefully attacking him on this one otherwise she might end up with a bit of egg on her face too.
Facinating stuff.
There are so many things wrong with this post, starting with the first four words
I see what he's getting at though. Attacking Trump on sexism and misogyny against other woman in his past has the chance that he can counter with Bill Clinton's past. THIS ISN'T RIGHT (probably my most commonly used sentence about this election), but it did divert for a while. I think this is too bad and falls too neatly into the patter to really worth this time though Shooters. I think the Alicia Machado (former Ms. Universe) thing flipped the script, but I think part of why that worked where others hadn't is 1) it happened in a debate (obvi), but 2) he criticized her weight AND, arguably most importantly, called her "Ms. Housekeeping." Alicia Machado has been a huge surrogate for Clinton in Spanish speaking markets.
@Red_in_SE8 you're right, but there are no rules in this, particularly not anymore.
@SantaClaus I see what you're saying, I was thinking polls not betting market because we don't have that here.
Marco Rubio would probably have been a more unifying figure for the Republicans than Trump, although some of Trump's more deranged supporters would not have backed him due to his Latino heritage.
The anyone else in the Republican party is a good question. I feel pretty safe saying that Ted Cruz would be doing worse. He has no appeal across the aisle, and I don't think whatever libertarian wing Trump has tapped in to would be excited by him. He is also a fundamentalist Christian, even for American Christians, and he is a petty little cunt. He is, by all accounts, a deplorable little man, and there were rumours coming from the Republican party when it was down to him and Trump that some would favor Trump because Trump could be seen as a blip.
Rubio was THE rising star in the Republican party as recently as a couple years ago. I think running for President and the primaries came too soon for him. And he's got two big problems 1) he's a part of the Senate but he never turns up, and that was before he started running for President and 2) He does not want to take a hardline "ABSOLUTELY NO ONE IN" policy on immigration. The fact that he's willing to talk about logical ways to handle immigration and immigrants already in the country (path to citizenship) has gotten the backs up of some Republicans in congress.
Past that, everything Mike Pence has done since being named VP has been aimed at a run in 2020 I believe. There's Nikki Hailey in South Carolina who, despite being a Tea Party Republican, took the mildly controversial stance of saying 'yes, this Confederate Flag that flies about the state legislature should really come down because, ya know, it's 2016." The subs bench isn't deep there.
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A few of the people I've spoken to here seem genuinely terrified of Trump though, I think it's going to be really close.
Goodbye Trump!
*I reserve the right to be wrong about this if Hillary uses this tactically in campaign ads. That said, it's so crass and explicit, it's almost too crass to use in a campaign ad (because of TV/radio decency standards).
Also worth noting that there's usually about a week's turnaround between something happening and the polls moving, which is why we're now seeing the result of the first presidential debate in polls:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-clinton-field-offices/
Lastly, I think that maybe the most profound and universally true statement in this entire election cycle comes from this tape:
"...when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything"
Republican Party hierarchy would love to drop Trump but Would likely split the Republican vote. In addition to the not paying taxes for 19 years, it is difficult to see how Trump can come back.
Hilary Clinton may be many things, but at least she has the decency to sound statesmanlike, and to take the role seriously.
Donald, on the other hand, is all bluster and blather. I hope she buries him in this election, because it would feel a touch safer having someone mostly adult in the White House, rather than someone with the manners and brains of a chimp.
( no disrespect to chimps intended)
I doubt this will materially impact on his already faltering campaign. Certainly Hillary needs to tread carefully attacking him on this one otherwise she might end up with a bit of egg on her face too.
Facinating stuff.
@Red_in_SE8 you're right, but there are no rules in this, particularly not anymore.
@SantaClaus I see what you're saying, I was thinking polls not betting market because we don't have that here.
Rubio was THE rising star in the Republican party as recently as a couple years ago. I think running for President and the primaries came too soon for him. And he's got two big problems 1) he's a part of the Senate but he never turns up, and that was before he started running for President and 2) He does not want to take a hardline "ABSOLUTELY NO ONE IN" policy on immigration. The fact that he's willing to talk about logical ways to handle immigration and immigrants already in the country (path to citizenship) has gotten the backs up of some Republicans in congress.
Past that, everything Mike Pence has done since being named VP has been aimed at a run in 2020 I believe. There's Nikki Hailey in South Carolina who, despite being a Tea Party Republican, took the mildly controversial stance of saying 'yes, this Confederate Flag that flies about the state legislature should really come down because, ya know, it's 2016." The subs bench isn't deep there.