Everyone knows Corbyn is in favour of Brexit. Isn't it a shame that he can't stand behind his principles eh?
Blimey the stuff you (and everybody, apparently) "know" is amazing Nick, I wish I had your insight...
People talk about what model the UK would follow if we left, but to me it's a bit like the jocks who wanted to leave the UK. They were talking about cherry picking the bits they liked (the pound, the Queen, the EU etc) and wanted to keep, but it really wouldn't have been up to them had they dropped out, the decision as to what we left them with would ultimately have been that of the rest of the UK.
If we left the EU, there is no reason why the rest of the European union would have to accept us into the EEA or any other part of the organisation. They might just tell us to push off...
If the Leave side was definitely putting forward Norway as the desired model, I could be convinced
Do Norway have to pay more per capita than us to trade in Europe without any control on agreements that may affect them?
Sorry, I don't know and don't have time to check now, but it looks like Norway pays almost as much as they would if they were an EU member, according to their minister for EU affairs.
I believe but am not certain that the UK pays less than an identical country would pay in the EU, given the rebate.
I don't know how these two bits of information relate to per capita payments for Norway and the UK.
They (the Norwegians) have been quoted in the recent past complaining about their financial contribution without any input into European legislation. Some Norwegian ministers have advised us not to follow their model for this reason. Would be interesting to find out how much per capita the pay compared to us.
Article here from a former Norwegian foreign minister on the subject. A must read, in my opinion.
Thanks Prague. Very interesting read. A must for all those suggesting we follow the Norwegian or Swiss model.
Good read Prague.As I said on the other (the angry thread) as as NLA said earlier, it's a dificult one, and hard to find information which isn't distorted by the interests of one side or the other. I don't see too much undue influence in a Norwegian living in Switzerland.
Not read all of this so far, but I'm on the 'in' side on largely gut feel, for NLA the main points in my in/out columns:
In: - EU together is very influential, much more-so than Britain on it's own - and the trend suggests we're of declining world importance. I think we'd struggle to stay significant in the long-term as companies choose to HQ elsewhere with better international connections in Europe (talking 10+ years to really see this happen I'd have thought). Losing the finance sector would be huge, may well not happen - but it's a risk. - If we actually left it's in the EUs interests for it to not go well, so they'll have to do what they can to show any other wavering countries that it's not worth it... might play with EU tariffs a bit, who knows - but it's more risk and could hit us hard. Our exports are less-and-less manufacturing based and can be gotten elsewhere. - Skilled and unskilled workers from abroad are good for us I think, especially in places like the NHS for example which are losing a bit of a battle with the skilled-labour market in the UK by being not keeping up with wages. - Immediate effect of an out vote may well 'wobble' the economy which is balanced quite finely at the moment [short-term, don't think the timing is right]
Out: - Control of own policy is important, and wherever you stand on immigration - if it gets 'too much' (whatever that is) you want to have the power to control it. - The highly publicised 'welfare tourism' issue around EU migrants does need reform, hopefully we don't have to leave to get that. There are plenty of policies which under the microscope need a lot of reform - and it's going to take a long time with so many other parties involved in policy making. - If it means that it's easier to move to and work in places like Canada, NZ, Australia, (maybe the US?) that'd be cool. - The cost of being in the EU is high, and may well outweigh what we get out of it if you actually put it side-by-side.
I think leaving the EU is like taking out a Jenga piece in the latter stages of the game, could be okay but could be a long-term catastrophe (I take Jenga very seriously).
Not read all of this so far, but I'm on the 'in' side on largely gut feel, for NLA the main points in my in/out columns:
In: - EU together is very influential, much more-so than Britain on it's own - and the trend suggests we're of declining world importance. I think we'd struggle to stay significant in the long-term as companies choose to HQ elsewhere with better international connections in Europe (talking 10+ years to really see this happen I'd have thought). Losing the finance sector would be huge, may well not happen - but it's a risk. - If we actually left it's in the EUs interests for it to not go well, so they'll have to do what they can to show any other wavering countries that it's not worth it... might play with EU tariffs a bit, who knows - but it's more risk and could hit us hard. Our exports are less-and-less manufacturing based and can be gotten elsewhere. - Skilled and unskilled workers from abroad are good for us I think, especially in places like the NHS for example which are losing a bit of a battle with the skilled-labour market in the UK by being not keeping up with wages. - Immediate effect of an out vote may well 'wobble' the economy which is balanced quite finely at the moment [short-term, don't think the timing is right]
Out: - Control of own policy is important, and wherever you stand on immigration - if it gets 'too much' (whatever that is) you want to have the power to control it. - The highly publicised 'welfare tourism' issue around EU migrants does need reform, hopefully we don't have to leave to get that. There are plenty of policies which under the microscope which need a lot of reform - and it's going to take a long time with so many other parties involved in policy making. - If it means that it's easier to move to and work in places like Canada, NZ, Australia, (maybe the US?) that'd be cool. - The cost of being in the EU is high, and may well outweigh what we get out of it if you actually put it side-by-side.
I think leaving the EU is like taking out a Jenga piece in the latter stages of the game, could be okay but could be a long-term catastrophe (I take Jenga very seriously).
Potentially the first thing that sums up positives rather than attack the other side with negatives, cheers.
Does anyone really think the EU would do anything that would damage their tourist trade. The Spanish economy for one would suffer massively. We on the other hand still attract people from all over the world .
Does anyone really think the EU would do anything that would damage their tourist trade. The Spanish economy for one would suffer massively. We on the other hand still attract people from all over the world .
Yeah, probably, but I can't see too many trying to get a tan in October...
Does anyone really think the EU would do anything that would damage their tourist trade. The Spanish economy for one would suffer massively. We on the other hand still attract people from all over the world .
Huge swathes of the EU have no tourist trade. Tourists come from all over the world to Spain, not just from the UK. If they sent back all the retired UK ex-pats draining their health system it would save them a huge amount of money...
I wouldn't have thought tourism would be affected, if it's like other countries then you just have to go through the 'non-EU' passport control entrance and duty-free is a bit cheaper? Or am I being overly simplistic?
Does anyone really think the EU would do anything that would damage their tourist trade. The Spanish economy for one would suffer massively. We on the other hand still attract people from all over the world .
Huge swathes of the EU have no tourist trade. Tourists come from all over the world to Spain, not just the UK. If they sent back all the retired UK ex-pats draining their health system it would save them a huge amount of money...
Health tourism is always shouted down as a myth in the UK but strangely it's a different story when we look abroad. The Spanish would also miss out on the pensioners spending their Sterling pensions and Sterling housing equity over there which might make them think twice.
Does anyone really think the EU would do anything that would damage their tourist trade. The Spanish economy for one would suffer massively. We on the other hand still attract people from all over the world .
Huge swathes of the EU have no tourist trade. Tourists come from all over the world to Spain, not just the UK. If they sent back all the retired UK ex-pats draining their health system it would save them a huge amount of money...
Health tourism is always shouted down as a myth in the UK but strangely it's a different story when we look abroad. The Spanish would also miss out on the pensioners spending their Sterling pensions and Sterling housing equity over there which might make them think twice.
They are not tourists, they are residents and as citizens (subjects) of an EU country they are entitled to health care under reciprocal agreements. If this goes west, many will be forced to return to the UK.
I agree that Spain (and Portugal) benefit somewhat from the spending power of the pensioners, but a lot of them don't pay their tax in the countries they live in, and it could be said they (we) drive up the cost of housing in certain areas, pricing the locals out of the market...
Does anyone really think the EU would do anything that would damage their tourist trade. The Spanish economy for one would suffer massively. We on the other hand still attract people from all over the world .
Huge swathes of the EU have no tourist trade. Tourists come from all over the world to Spain, not just the UK. If they sent back all the retired UK ex-pats draining their health system it would save them a huge amount of money...
Health tourism is always shouted down as a myth in the UK but strangely it's a different story when we look abroad. The Spanish would also miss out on the pensioners spending their Sterling pensions and Sterling housing equity over there which might make them think twice.
Don't know if many are suggesting that British people are 'health tourists' in Spain.
I don't think it's health tourism, but if people move there to retire, then there are likely to be healthcare costs along the line.
Does anyone really think the EU would do anything that would damage their tourist trade. The Spanish economy for one would suffer massively. We on the other hand still attract people from all over the world .
Huge swathes of the EU have no tourist trade. Tourists come from all over the world to Spain, not just the UK. If they sent back all the retired UK ex-pats draining their health system it would save them a huge amount of money...
Health tourism is always shouted down as a myth in the UK but strangely it's a different story when we look abroad. The Spanish would also miss out on the pensioners spending their Sterling pensions and Sterling housing equity over there which might make them think twice.
Don't know if many are suggesting that British people are 'health tourists' in Spain.
I don't think it's health tourism, but if people move there to retire, then there are likely to be healthcare costs along the line.
Boris has just broken cover and will campaign for the Tory leadership UK to leave the EU!
Boris's Dad has just said on BBC Breakfast that he is fighting to stay in as a part of the Environmentalists for Europe campaign group. That, however well written his son's article in the Telegraph was, it left out completely so many important issues. So his daddy has seen straight through him then.
At some point in the debate a Lifer will doubtless write that the Americans (Obama or Kerry) are "interfering" in our referendum by providing their opinions.
I would like to remind all Lifers that Mr B. Johnson, the Hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, is a US citizen.
So we have the preposterous situation where the Out campaign is dominated by an American, and an old git who lives in France (Lawson), yet up to 2m British citizens are denied a say in a referendum which hugely affects their lives because they have not registered to vote in the UK for 15 years and currently live abroad.
If people haven't bothered to vote in 15 years then that's their own fault
Does anyone really think the EU would do anything that would damage their tourist trade. The Spanish economy for one would suffer massively. We on the other hand still attract people from all over the world .
Huge swathes of the EU have no tourist trade. Tourists come from all over the world to Spain, not just the UK. If they sent back all the retired UK ex-pats draining their health system it would save them a huge amount of money...
Health tourism is always shouted down as a myth in the UK but strangely it's a different story when we look abroad. The Spanish would also miss out on the pensioners spending their Sterling pensions and Sterling housing equity over there which might make them think twice.
They are not tourists, they are residents and as citizens (subjects) of an EU country they are entitled to health care under reciprocal agreements. If this goes west, many will be forced to return to the UK.
I agree that Spain (and Portugal) benefit somewhat from the spending power of the pensioners, but a lot of them don't pay their tax in the countries they live in, and it could be said they (we) drive up the cost of housing in certain areas, pricing the locals out of the market...
I'm sure some Spanish would see them as long term tourists but I take your point. BTW with regards to housing I thought Spain had a big over supply of property hanging over from the mid 2000's property boom? Are they really causing supply issues for locals?
A very good article explaining the potential scenarios for what will happen after Brexit. It is well written and informative. You may not agree with the author's bias (which he lays out up front), but he does walk through the potential outcomes very well.
I am obviously not a UK citizen, and the EU is far from perfect, but as Lindon Baines Johnson (a man who helped to kill his predecessor, but that's another story) once said "better to have people inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in."
I think it should also be pointed out that all developed countries benefit greatly from cheap labor, be they immigrants or ones based overseas.
Boris has just broken cover and will campaign for the Tory leadership UK to leave the EU!
Boris's Dad has just said on BBC Breakfast that he is fighting to stay in as a part of the Environmentalists for Europe campaign group. That, however well written his son's article in the Telegraph was, it left out completely so many important issues. So his daddy has seen straight through him then.
At some point in the debate a Lifer will doubtless write that the Americans (Obama or Kerry) are "interfering" in our referendum by providing their opinions.
I would like to remind all Lifers that Mr B. Johnson, the Hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, is a US citizen.
So we have the preposterous situation where the Out campaign is dominated by an American, and an old git who lives in France (Lawson), yet up to 2m British citizens are denied a say in a referendum which hugely affects their lives because they have not registered to vote in the UK for 15 years and currently live abroad.
If people haven't bothered to vote in 15 years then that's their own fault
Sorry, I meant a slightly different thing, but did not make myself clear. I refer of course to citizens who have not been continuously resident in the UK for 15 years, and so have voted by post.
I don't know of any other European country which deprives its citizens of the right to vote in this way, just because they have the temerity not to live there. After all (as in my case) they may still pay UK income tax, qualify for a UK state pension, have a UK property, have family in the UK whose welfare they are responsible for, have a UK bank account, keep savings in the UK, consume UK media, write to their MP, travel home regularly to see their football team...yet they are not allowed to vote? On the Today programme Michael Fallon said "Every UK citizen has the right to decide". No Mr Fallon, your government deprived up to 2 million citizens of this right.
Boris has just broken cover and will campaign for the Tory leadership UK to leave the EU!
Boris's Dad has just said on BBC Breakfast that he is fighting to stay in as a part of the Environmentalists for Europe campaign group. That, however well written his son's article in the Telegraph was, it left out completely so many important issues. So his daddy has seen straight through him then.
At some point in the debate a Lifer will doubtless write that the Americans (Obama or Kerry) are "interfering" in our referendum by providing their opinions.
I would like to remind all Lifers that Mr B. Johnson, the Hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, is a US citizen.
So we have the preposterous situation where the Out campaign is dominated by an American, and an old git who lives in France (Lawson), yet up to 2m British citizens are denied a say in a referendum which hugely affects their lives because they have not registered to vote in the UK for 15 years and currently live abroad.
If people haven't bothered to vote in 15 years then that's their own fault
I don't know of any other European country which deprives its citizens of the right to vote in this way, just because they have the temerity not to live there.
I've got one for you: Ireland.
I've tried googling to confirm how quickly Irish citizens lose their vote. I had thought it was about 18 months. All the options on my quick search seem to suggest they lose their vote immediately once they're no longer resident.
I'm voting IN. There are numerous reasons and I list some below. Having worked in the CoL finance sector for nearly 20 years, It will be a potential big blow if we vote OUT, as someone has already posted, the financial houses in Paris and Frankfurt will be circling to take the investment houses over there, this rendering the CoL a bit part player in years to come, and the money the CoL generates will diminish quite quickly. Jobs will also be lost. I also worked for a big German company who may well decide to relocate back to their homeland losing the UK 1,000's of jobs. We like to 'think' we hold a big influence in the world, well we don't. On my work travels around the world, mainly Far East, Asia, Africa and Middle East, and dealing with CEO's of foreign companies, they have full respect for the UK but were more interested in trading with the EU block and saw the UK as their way into the the rest. I guess if we leave they will not want to bother too much with us as our influence will have been even more diluted. When in hospital I was looked after by Nurses from Spain, France, Czech Republic, Doctors from Poland, Cleaners from other European countries. It puzzled me a bit, so I asked the Hospital manager why so many non-Brits in the hospital? Answer was quite emphatic - Sadly UK staff either didn't apply, did apply - got the job and then didn't turn up, did apply - didn't get the job as not skilled enough, many also left as money wasn't enough. If we have this problem now, what will it be like if we cant employ these people over here if we leave? If we vote OUT, then expect Scotland to go for another Independence vote, as they want to stay IN. If that happens it will be England OUT, Scotland IN and I guess Wales will ask for the same Independence vote as well....goodbye UK?
Overall I think being IN is better for us, but one final point - I'm nearly 61 and with a bit of luck I'll still be around for 20 years, but then after that who knows, so who am I to tell someone in their 20's who has at least 60 years left what their future should be? And, on that point, the Scottish gave 16 year old's a vote on Independence but this government when asked to give the same opportunity to 16 yr old's in Wales/England has denied them that right? Are English and Welsh 16 year old's not responsible enough, or do the Eurosceptics think that many of the younger generation have less 'baggage' and 'hang ups' about being part of the EU and could help to win the IN vote? Call me an old sceptic!!!
Boris has just broken cover and will campaign for the Tory leadership UK to leave the EU!
Boris's Dad has just said on BBC Breakfast that he is fighting to stay in as a part of the Environmentalists for Europe campaign group. That, however well written his son's article in the Telegraph was, it left out completely so many important issues. So his daddy has seen straight through him then.
At some point in the debate a Lifer will doubtless write that the Americans (Obama or Kerry) are "interfering" in our referendum by providing their opinions.
I would like to remind all Lifers that Mr B. Johnson, the Hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, is a US citizen.
So we have the preposterous situation where the Out campaign is dominated by an American, and an old git who lives in France (Lawson), yet up to 2m British citizens are denied a say in a referendum which hugely affects their lives because they have not registered to vote in the UK for 15 years and currently live abroad.
If people haven't bothered to vote in 15 years then that's their own fault
I don't know of any other European country which deprives its citizens of the right to vote in this way, just because they have the temerity not to live there.
I've got one for you: Ireland.
I've tried googling to confirm how quickly Irish citizens lose their vote. I had thought it was about 18 months. All the options on my quick search seem to suggest they lose their vote immediately once they're no longer resident.
Except for Seanad elections, where there remains a seat for the National University of Ireland...
However, as witnessed in the marriage referendum last year, a significant number of "young" Irish retain their residency at their familial homes, and so could return to vote (most often "yes").
Just to add that as of a few minutes ago the £ has seen the biggest drop in its value today (2%) since the financial meltdown in 2008. This is due to the fact, apparently, that Boris has joined the OUT campaign and markets are worried that this is the way the UK will vote, what we don't need is a weak £.
Boris has just broken cover and will campaign for the Tory leadership UK to leave the EU!
Boris's Dad has just said on BBC Breakfast that he is fighting to stay in as a part of the Environmentalists for Europe campaign group. That, however well written his son's article in the Telegraph was, it left out completely so many important issues. So his daddy has seen straight through him then.
At some point in the debate a Lifer will doubtless write that the Americans (Obama or Kerry) are "interfering" in our referendum by providing their opinions.
I would like to remind all Lifers that Mr B. Johnson, the Hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, is a US citizen.
So we have the preposterous situation where the Out campaign is dominated by an American, and an old git who lives in France (Lawson), yet up to 2m British citizens are denied a say in a referendum which hugely affects their lives because they have not registered to vote in the UK for 15 years and currently live abroad.
If people haven't bothered to vote in 15 years then that's their own fault
I don't know of any other European country which deprives its citizens of the right to vote in this way, just because they have the temerity not to live there.
I've got one for you: Ireland.
I've tried googling to confirm how quickly Irish citizens lose their vote. I had thought it was about 18 months. All the options on my quick search seem to suggest they lose their vote immediately once they're no longer resident.
Blimey.
Would like to change my criteria re "other European country", but many of the tribe have Irish ancestry so I better let it go.
Did you find any others, out of interest? Deffo not Sweden or Germany. My mate who is dual citizen, votes in both. Lived in Prague or Oslo last 22 years
Boris has just broken cover and will campaign for the Tory leadership UK to leave the EU!
Boris's Dad has just said on BBC Breakfast that he is fighting to stay in as a part of the Environmentalists for Europe campaign group. That, however well written his son's article in the Telegraph was, it left out completely so many important issues. So his daddy has seen straight through him then.
At some point in the debate a Lifer will doubtless write that the Americans (Obama or Kerry) are "interfering" in our referendum by providing their opinions.
I would like to remind all Lifers that Mr B. Johnson, the Hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, is a US citizen.
So we have the preposterous situation where the Out campaign is dominated by an American, and an old git who lives in France (Lawson), yet up to 2m British citizens are denied a say in a referendum which hugely affects their lives because they have not registered to vote in the UK for 15 years and currently live abroad.
If people haven't bothered to vote in 15 years then that's their own fault
I don't know of any other European country which deprives its citizens of the right to vote in this way, just because they have the temerity not to live there.
I've got one for you: Ireland.
I've tried googling to confirm how quickly Irish citizens lose their vote. I had thought it was about 18 months. All the options on my quick search seem to suggest they lose their vote immediately once they're no longer resident.
Blimey.
Would like to change my criteria re "other European country", but many of the tribe have Irish ancestry so I better let it go.
Did you find any others, out of interest? Deffo not Sweden or Germany. My mate who is dual citizen, votes in both. Lived in Prague or Oslo last 22 years
I didn't search for that. I just knew Ireland had a very short time or no time after which they lose the vote. I was googling to confirm how long. One of those things in the back of my head somehow.
Boris has just broken cover and will campaign for the Tory leadership UK to leave the EU!
Boris's Dad has just said on BBC Breakfast that he is fighting to stay in as a part of the Environmentalists for Europe campaign group. That, however well written his son's article in the Telegraph was, it left out completely so many important issues. So his daddy has seen straight through him then.
At some point in the debate a Lifer will doubtless write that the Americans (Obama or Kerry) are "interfering" in our referendum by providing their opinions.
I would like to remind all Lifers that Mr B. Johnson, the Hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, is a US citizen.
So we have the preposterous situation where the Out campaign is dominated by an American, and an old git who lives in France (Lawson), yet up to 2m British citizens are denied a say in a referendum which hugely affects their lives because they have not registered to vote in the UK for 15 years and currently live abroad.
If people haven't bothered to vote in 15 years then that's their own fault
I don't know of any other European country which deprives its citizens of the right to vote in this way, just because they have the temerity not to live there.
I've got one for you: Ireland.
I've tried googling to confirm how quickly Irish citizens lose their vote. I had thought it was about 18 months. All the options on my quick search seem to suggest they lose their vote immediately once they're no longer resident.
Blimey.
Would like to change my criteria re "other European country", but many of the tribe have Irish ancestry so I better let it go.
Did you find any others, out of interest? Deffo not Sweden or Germany. My mate who is dual citizen, votes in both. Lived in Prague or Oslo last 22 years
I didn't search for that. I just knew Ireland had a very short time or no time after which they lose the vote. I was googling to confirm how long. One of those things in the back of my head somehow.
Ireland has been relying on emigration as an economic and social safety valve for the last few hundred years (it didn't just start with the Famine). The figures would also be interesting if Northern Ireland was included, though it might be difficult to get detailed information for those migrating across the Irish Sea.
Migration from the island has also included large numbers of of the most educated for at least the last 40 years, in Northern Ireland there is a clear correlation between university students going to England and Scotland to study and not returning (particularly the Protestant middle class).
Does anyone really think the EU would do anything that would damage their tourist trade. The Spanish economy for one would suffer massively. We on the other hand still attract people from all over the world .
Huge swathes of the EU have no tourist trade. Tourists come from all over the world to Spain, not just the UK. If they sent back all the retired UK ex-pats draining their health system it would save them a huge amount of money...
Health tourism is always shouted down as a myth in the UK but strangely it's a different story when we look abroad. The Spanish would also miss out on the pensioners spending their Sterling pensions and Sterling housing equity over there which might make them think twice.
They are not tourists, they are residents and as citizens (subjects) of an EU country they are entitled to health care under reciprocal agreements. If this goes west, many will be forced to return to the UK.
I agree that Spain (and Portugal) benefit somewhat from the spending power of the pensioners, but a lot of them don't pay their tax in the countries they live in, and it could be said they (we) drive up the cost of housing in certain areas, pricing the locals out of the market...
I'm sure some Spanish would see them as long term tourists but I take your point. BTW with regards to housing I thought Spain had a big over supply of property hanging over from the mid 2000's property boom? Are they really causing supply issues for locals?
I think the property thing depends on where exactly you are - much the same as the UK I guess?
On the original point about the tourist trade, Madrid is a long way from the costas, and like any government they do not always take into account local issues. I am thinking of the sporadic sabre rattling about Gibraltar when the heat is on the Spanish government over other issues. It's seen as a great vote winner in many parts of Spain, except for the area around Gib, where the local economy relies heavily on the rock and they are very pro things remaining as they are. If the large number of Spanish voters who don't rely on the tourist trade are miffed at any Brexit, the government might not give a monkeys about upsetting those on the coast if they see a few votes in it by getting arsey with the Brits?
Comments
People talk about what model the UK would follow if we left, but to me it's a bit like the jocks who wanted to leave the UK. They were talking about cherry picking the bits they liked (the pound, the Queen, the EU etc) and wanted to keep, but it really wouldn't have been up to them had they dropped out, the decision as to what we left them with would ultimately have been that of the rest of the UK.
If we left the EU, there is no reason why the rest of the European union would have to accept us into the EEA or any other part of the organisation. They might just tell us to push off...
; )
In:
- EU together is very influential, much more-so than Britain on it's own - and the trend suggests we're of declining world importance. I think we'd struggle to stay significant in the long-term as companies choose to HQ elsewhere with better international connections in Europe (talking 10+ years to really see this happen I'd have thought). Losing the finance sector would be huge, may well not happen - but it's a risk.
- If we actually left it's in the EUs interests for it to not go well, so they'll have to do what they can to show any other wavering countries that it's not worth it... might play with EU tariffs a bit, who knows - but it's more risk and could hit us hard. Our exports are less-and-less manufacturing based and can be gotten elsewhere.
- Skilled and unskilled workers from abroad are good for us I think, especially in places like the NHS for example which are losing a bit of a battle with the skilled-labour market in the UK by being not keeping up with wages.
- Immediate effect of an out vote may well 'wobble' the economy which is balanced quite finely at the moment [short-term, don't think the timing is right]
Out:
- Control of own policy is important, and wherever you stand on immigration - if it gets 'too much' (whatever that is) you want to have the power to control it.
- The highly publicised 'welfare tourism' issue around EU migrants does need reform, hopefully we don't have to leave to get that. There are plenty of policies which under the microscope need a lot of reform - and it's going to take a long time with so many other parties involved in policy making.
- If it means that it's easier to move to and work in places like Canada, NZ, Australia, (maybe the US?) that'd be cool.
- The cost of being in the EU is high, and may well outweigh what we get out of it if you actually put it side-by-side.
I think leaving the EU is like taking out a Jenga piece in the latter stages of the game, could be okay but could be a long-term catastrophe (I take Jenga very seriously).
The Spanish economy for one would suffer massively. We on the other hand still attract people from all over the world .
I agree that Spain (and Portugal) benefit somewhat from the spending power of the pensioners, but a lot of them don't pay their tax in the countries they live in, and it could be said they (we) drive up the cost of housing in certain areas, pricing the locals out of the market...
I don't think it's health tourism, but if people move there to retire, then there are likely to be healthcare costs along the line.
Health tourism is a different thing.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/business/2015/10/what-actually-happens-if-britain-leaves-eu
I am obviously not a UK citizen, and the EU is far from perfect, but as Lindon Baines Johnson (a man who helped to kill his predecessor, but that's another story) once said "better to have people inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in."
I think it should also be pointed out that all developed countries benefit greatly from cheap labor, be they immigrants or ones based overseas.
Sorry, I meant a slightly different thing, but did not make myself clear. I refer of course to citizens who have not been continuously resident in the UK for 15 years, and so have voted by post.
I don't know of any other European country which deprives its citizens of the right to vote in this way, just because they have the temerity not to live there. After all (as in my case) they may still pay UK income tax, qualify for a UK state pension, have a UK property, have family in the UK whose welfare they are responsible for, have a UK bank account, keep savings in the UK, consume UK media, write to their MP, travel home regularly to see their football team...yet they are not allowed to vote? On the Today programme Michael Fallon said "Every UK citizen has the right to decide". No Mr Fallon, your government deprived up to 2 million citizens of this right.
I've tried googling to confirm how quickly Irish citizens lose their vote. I had thought it was about 18 months. All the options on my quick search seem to suggest they lose their vote immediately once they're no longer resident.
Having worked in the CoL finance sector for nearly 20 years, It will be a potential big blow if we vote OUT, as someone has already posted, the financial houses in Paris and Frankfurt will be circling to take the investment houses over there, this rendering the CoL a bit part player in years to come, and the money the CoL generates will diminish quite quickly. Jobs will also be lost.
I also worked for a big German company who may well decide to relocate back to their homeland losing the UK 1,000's of jobs.
We like to 'think' we hold a big influence in the world, well we don't. On my work travels around the world, mainly Far East, Asia, Africa and Middle East, and dealing with CEO's of foreign companies, they have full respect for the UK but were more interested in trading with the EU block and saw the UK as their way into the the rest. I guess if we leave they will not want to bother too much with us as our influence will have been even more diluted.
When in hospital I was looked after by Nurses from Spain, France, Czech Republic, Doctors from Poland, Cleaners from other European countries. It puzzled me a bit, so I asked the Hospital manager why so many non-Brits in the hospital? Answer was quite emphatic - Sadly UK staff either didn't apply, did apply - got the job and then didn't turn up, did apply - didn't get the job as not skilled enough, many also left as money wasn't enough. If we have this problem now, what will it be like if we cant employ these people over here if we leave?
If we vote OUT, then expect Scotland to go for another Independence vote, as they want to stay IN. If that happens it will be England OUT, Scotland IN and I guess Wales will ask for the same Independence vote as well....goodbye UK?
Overall I think being IN is better for us, but one final point - I'm nearly 61 and with a bit of luck I'll still be around for 20 years, but then after that who knows, so who am I to tell someone in their 20's who has at least 60 years left what their future should be? And, on that point, the Scottish gave 16 year old's a vote on Independence but this government when asked to give the same opportunity to 16 yr old's in Wales/England has denied them that right? Are English and Welsh 16 year old's not responsible enough, or do the Eurosceptics think that many of the younger generation have less 'baggage' and 'hang ups' about being part of the EU and could help to win the IN vote? Call me an old sceptic!!!
However, as witnessed in the marriage referendum last year, a significant number of "young" Irish retain their residency at their familial homes, and so could return to vote (most often "yes").
Would like to change my criteria re "other European country", but many of the tribe have Irish ancestry so I better let it go.
Did you find any others, out of interest? Deffo not Sweden or Germany. My mate who is dual citizen, votes in both. Lived in Prague or Oslo last 22 years
Probably not a big deal for Ireland. Only 17.5% of people born in Ireland now live outside the country (another case where I've googled to check the statistic and been surprised)
Migration from the island has also included large numbers of of the most educated for at least the last 40 years, in Northern Ireland there is a clear correlation between university students going to England and Scotland to study and not returning (particularly the Protestant middle class).
On the original point about the tourist trade, Madrid is a long way from the costas, and like any government they do not always take into account local issues. I am thinking of the sporadic sabre rattling about Gibraltar when the heat is on the Spanish government over other issues. It's seen as a great vote winner in many parts of Spain, except for the area around Gib, where the local economy relies heavily on the rock and they are very pro things remaining as they are. If the large number of Spanish voters who don't rely on the tourist trade are miffed at any Brexit, the government might not give a monkeys about upsetting those on the coast if they see a few votes in it by getting arsey with the Brits?