This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
Something I feel you and I are in complete harmony in, a good article, thanks.
The bits in bold just have me with my head in my hands at what people are doing... I did make a comment in regards to a lot of this on their thread the other day haha.
It's only attraction is volatility, well I'm actually off to a wedding in Vegas today and I guarantee I will see people telling me they have a "system" on roulette (just double your stake each time and you end up winning the amount you first staked every time (apart from the fact that this grows exponentially until eventually on one run you WILL run out of cash)).
If something's only attraction is volatility, it's gambling, plain and simple. I don't mind that, I love a flutter and you'll find me glued to a blackjack table for the next 72 hours, but I know I'm gambling. Gambling dressed up as an "investment" I don't like. It gives it an element of legitimacy that it does not deserve.
I would love every crypto advert to have to have the whole "when the fun stops, stop" attached to it.
It always reminds me of a (probably mythical) story about Joe Kennedy in 1929 where he sold all his stocks just before the crash because "when the shoe shine boy is giving me stock tips, the market is too popular for its own good"
Crypto is just thousands of shoe shine boys chatting hot air at each other.
I’m glad you emphasised a phrase whose elegance had flown over my head “ the chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment toward itself”. Brilliant. And actually, speaking for myself that sums up the approach to our “forecast the FTSE 100” competition. I just try to consider what might be exercising the world’s collective mindset a few months ahead and consider how that mindset would drive market sentiment, based on years of listening to the news bulletins which usually end with the update on how the markets performed that day. I have no better grasp than that of what moves the indices, and certainly couldn’t claim to understand “market fundamentals”, and funny enough the regulars on here whom I look up to in that respect often do badly in the competition.😆
I have worked in the betting industry for over 42 years and my profit and loss account on my own personal betting performance is, at best, break even.
Crypto - betting Shares - betting Funds - betting Fixed-term and rate savings accounts - betting (although very happy with 6.2% at NS&I) DC Pensions - betting
Most if not all forms of investment - betting
I rest my case
Sorry, but I cant agree with that.
True betting means you can lose your stake. Horses, football, you name it.
Investing means you could lose it all but in reality you dont. Very very few investments lead you to losing your entire stake. Certainly regulated UK investments dont. Worse case scenario is that you might lose 40%-60% if you invest badly or the markets go tits up.
This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
Something I feel you and I are in complete harmony in, a good article, thanks.
The bits in bold just have me with my head in my hands at what people are doing... I did make a comment in regards to a lot of this on their thread the other day haha.
It's only attraction is volatility, well I'm actually off to a wedding in Vegas today and I guarantee I will see people telling me they have a "system" on roulette (just double your stake each time and you end up winning the amount you first staked every time (apart from the fact that this grows exponentially until eventually on one run you WILL run out of cash)).
If something's only attraction is volatility, it's gambling, plain and simple. I don't mind that, I love a flutter and you'll find me glued to a blackjack table for the next 72 hours, but I know I'm gambling. Gambling dressed up as an "investment" I don't like. It gives it an element of legitimacy that it does not deserve.
I would love every crypto advert to have to have the whole "when the fun stops, stop" attached to it.
It always reminds me of a (probably mythical) story about Joe Kennedy in 1929 where he sold all his stocks just before the crash because "when the shoe shine boy is giving me stock tips, the market is too popular for its own good"
Crypto is just thousands of shoe shine boys chatting hot air at each other.
I’m glad you emphasised a phrase whose elegance had flown over my head “ the chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment toward itself”. Brilliant. And actually, speaking for myself that sums up the approach to our “forecast the FTSE 100” competition. I just try to consider what might be exercising the world’s collective mindset a few months ahead and consider how that mindset would drive market sentiment, based on years of listening to the news bulletins which usually end with the update on how the markets performed that day. I have no better grasp than that of what moves the indices, and certainly couldn’t claim to understand “market fundamentals”, and funny enough the regulars on here whom I look up to in that respect often do badly in the competition.😆
I have worked in the betting industry for over 42 years and my profit and loss account on my own personal betting performance is, at best, break even.
Crypto - betting Shares - betting Funds - betting Fixed-term and rate savings accounts - betting (although very happy with 6.2% at NS&I) DC Pensions - betting
Most if not all forms of investment - betting
I rest my case
Sorry, but I cant agree with that.
True betting means you can lose your stake. Horses, football, you name it.
Investing means you could lose it all but in reality you dont. Very very few investments lead you to losing your entire stake. Certainly regulated UK investments dont. Worse case scenario is that you might lose 40%-60% if you invest badly or the markets go tits up.
Didn’t get much back from my Charlton shares.
Thats AIM for you - populated almost exclusively by snake oil salesmen
This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
Something I feel you and I are in complete harmony in, a good article, thanks.
The bits in bold just have me with my head in my hands at what people are doing... I did make a comment in regards to a lot of this on their thread the other day haha.
It's only attraction is volatility, well I'm actually off to a wedding in Vegas today and I guarantee I will see people telling me they have a "system" on roulette (just double your stake each time and you end up winning the amount you first staked every time (apart from the fact that this grows exponentially until eventually on one run you WILL run out of cash)).
If something's only attraction is volatility, it's gambling, plain and simple. I don't mind that, I love a flutter and you'll find me glued to a blackjack table for the next 72 hours, but I know I'm gambling. Gambling dressed up as an "investment" I don't like. It gives it an element of legitimacy that it does not deserve.
I would love every crypto advert to have to have the whole "when the fun stops, stop" attached to it.
It always reminds me of a (probably mythical) story about Joe Kennedy in 1929 where he sold all his stocks just before the crash because "when the shoe shine boy is giving me stock tips, the market is too popular for its own good"
Crypto is just thousands of shoe shine boys chatting hot air at each other.
I’m glad you emphasised a phrase whose elegance had flown over my head “ the chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment toward itself”. Brilliant. And actually, speaking for myself that sums up the approach to our “forecast the FTSE 100” competition. I just try to consider what might be exercising the world’s collective mindset a few months ahead and consider how that mindset would drive market sentiment, based on years of listening to the news bulletins which usually end with the update on how the markets performed that day. I have no better grasp than that of what moves the indices, and certainly couldn’t claim to understand “market fundamentals”, and funny enough the regulars on here whom I look up to in that respect often do badly in the competition.😆
I have worked in the betting industry for over 42 years and my profit and loss account on my own personal betting performance is, at best, break even.
Crypto - betting Shares - betting Funds - betting Fixed-term and rate savings accounts - betting (although very happy with 6.2% at NS&I) DC Pensions - betting
Most if not all forms of investment - betting
I rest my case
Sorry, but I cant agree with that.
True betting means you can lose your stake. Horses, football, you name it.
Investing means you could lose it all but in reality you dont. Very very few investments lead you to losing your entire stake. Certainly regulated UK investments dont. Worse case scenario is that you might lose 40%-60% if you invest badly or the markets go tits up.
We agree to disagree then.
It's all betting - agreed that you are not risking the lot with the examples I gave because you can always cut your losses, but very few people risk their entire wealth when having a bet.
This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
Something I feel you and I are in complete harmony in, a good article, thanks.
The bits in bold just have me with my head in my hands at what people are doing... I did make a comment in regards to a lot of this on their thread the other day haha.
It's only attraction is volatility, well I'm actually off to a wedding in Vegas today and I guarantee I will see people telling me they have a "system" on roulette (just double your stake each time and you end up winning the amount you first staked every time (apart from the fact that this grows exponentially until eventually on one run you WILL run out of cash)).
If something's only attraction is volatility, it's gambling, plain and simple. I don't mind that, I love a flutter and you'll find me glued to a blackjack table for the next 72 hours, but I know I'm gambling. Gambling dressed up as an "investment" I don't like. It gives it an element of legitimacy that it does not deserve.
I would love every crypto advert to have to have the whole "when the fun stops, stop" attached to it.
It always reminds me of a (probably mythical) story about Joe Kennedy in 1929 where he sold all his stocks just before the crash because "when the shoe shine boy is giving me stock tips, the market is too popular for its own good"
Crypto is just thousands of shoe shine boys chatting hot air at each other.
I’m glad you emphasised a phrase whose elegance had flown over my head “ the chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment toward itself”. Brilliant. And actually, speaking for myself that sums up the approach to our “forecast the FTSE 100” competition. I just try to consider what might be exercising the world’s collective mindset a few months ahead and consider how that mindset would drive market sentiment, based on years of listening to the news bulletins which usually end with the update on how the markets performed that day. I have no better grasp than that of what moves the indices, and certainly couldn’t claim to understand “market fundamentals”, and funny enough the regulars on here whom I look up to in that respect often do badly in the competition.😆
I have worked in the betting industry for over 42 years and my profit and loss account on my own personal betting performance is, at best, break even.
Crypto - betting Shares - betting Funds - betting Fixed-term and rate savings accounts - betting (although very happy with 6.2% at NS&I) DC Pensions - betting
Most if not all forms of investment - betting
I rest my case
All loosely gambling agreed, just different risk levels even within each category.
Although I'd say the Fixed term cash isn't really betting as if sensible 100% of your cash is safe and you know what you will be getting by way of return.
This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
Something I feel you and I are in complete harmony in, a good article, thanks.
The bits in bold just have me with my head in my hands at what people are doing... I did make a comment in regards to a lot of this on their thread the other day haha.
It's only attraction is volatility, well I'm actually off to a wedding in Vegas today and I guarantee I will see people telling me they have a "system" on roulette (just double your stake each time and you end up winning the amount you first staked every time (apart from the fact that this grows exponentially until eventually on one run you WILL run out of cash)).
If something's only attraction is volatility, it's gambling, plain and simple. I don't mind that, I love a flutter and you'll find me glued to a blackjack table for the next 72 hours, but I know I'm gambling. Gambling dressed up as an "investment" I don't like. It gives it an element of legitimacy that it does not deserve.
I would love every crypto advert to have to have the whole "when the fun stops, stop" attached to it.
It always reminds me of a (probably mythical) story about Joe Kennedy in 1929 where he sold all his stocks just before the crash because "when the shoe shine boy is giving me stock tips, the market is too popular for its own good"
Crypto is just thousands of shoe shine boys chatting hot air at each other.
I’m glad you emphasised a phrase whose elegance had flown over my head “ the chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment toward itself”. Brilliant. And actually, speaking for myself that sums up the approach to our “forecast the FTSE 100” competition. I just try to consider what might be exercising the world’s collective mindset a few months ahead and consider how that mindset would drive market sentiment, based on years of listening to the news bulletins which usually end with the update on how the markets performed that day. I have no better grasp than that of what moves the indices, and certainly couldn’t claim to understand “market fundamentals”, and funny enough the regulars on here whom I look up to in that respect often do badly in the competition.😆
I have worked in the betting industry for over 42 years and my profit and loss account on my own personal betting performance is, at best, break even.
Crypto - betting Shares - betting Funds - betting Fixed-term and rate savings accounts - betting (although very happy with 6.2% at NS&I) DC Pensions - betting
Most if not all forms of investment - betting
I rest my case
All loosely gambling agreed, just different risk levels even within each category.
Although I'd say the Fixed term cash isn't really betting as if sensible 100% of your cash is safe and you know what you will be getting by way of return.
In the strictest sense fixed rate is still speculation - it's a judgement call on the direction of travel of interest rates. No, you can't lose - but you could have made more (or less) by not fixing.
A diversified portfolio of shares has a positive expected return thanks to the equity risk premium (the extra return investors demand for the additional risk of not just leaving their money in cash [which does today finally offer an actual risk-free positive return in nominal terms albeit perhaps not after inflation]).
Obviously it doesn't guarantee a positive return over all time periods but the probabilistic starting point is a postive one at least.
By definition gambling on say sport has a negative expected value thanks to the bookmaker's overround.
On the rare occasions a smart punter can consistently identify situations where the odds are wrong to a sufficient degree to offset the overround they will find their accounts closed pretty sharpish (not something that happens to a successful stock investor at their brokerage, in fact quite the opposite [a successful investor will pay more in fees and be more profitable for them too]).
There are for most punters non-financial returns from betting in terms of added enjoyment from watching an event but I suspect a properly structured survey would conclude these are actually de minimis.
I can't assess if crypto offers a positive risk premium (I can't see how/why it should) and thus have no interest.
A diversified portfolio of shares has a positive expected return thanks to the equity risk premium (the extra return investors demand for the additional risk of not just leaving their money in cash [which does today finally offer an actual risk-free positive return in nominal terms albeit perhaps not after inflation]).
Obviously it doesn't guarantee a positive return over all time periods but the probabilistic starting point is a postive one at least.
By definition gambling on say sport has a negative expected value thanks to the bookmaker's overround.
On the rare occasions a smart punter can consistently identify situations where the odds are wrong to a sufficient degree to offset the overround they will fine their accounts closed pretty sharpish (not something that happens to a successful stock investor at their brokerage, in fact quite the opposite [a successful investor will pay more in fees and be more profitable for them too]).
There are for most punters non-financial returns from betting in terms of added enjoyment from watching an event but I suspect a properly structured survey would conclude these are actually de minimis.
I can't assess if crypto offers a positive risk premium (I can't see how/why it should) and thus have no interest.
In my opinion premium bonds are returnable lottery tickets. You have a (very remote) chance of 'the big one' and slightly more chance of a smaller prize. My return since January 2023 on a holding less than half of the maximum has been 3.75%.
In my opinion premium bonds are returnable lottery tickets. You have a (very remote) chance of 'the big one' and slightly more chance of a smaller prize. My return since January 2023 on a holding less than half of the maximum has been 3.75%.
That's how I often describe it, the lottery but you get your stake back.
This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
Something I feel you and I are in complete harmony in, a good article, thanks.
The bits in bold just have me with my head in my hands at what people are doing... I did make a comment in regards to a lot of this on their thread the other day haha.
It's only attraction is volatility, well I'm actually off to a wedding in Vegas today and I guarantee I will see people telling me they have a "system" on roulette (just double your stake each time and you end up winning the amount you first staked every time (apart from the fact that this grows exponentially until eventually on one run you WILL run out of cash)).
If something's only attraction is volatility, it's gambling, plain and simple. I don't mind that, I love a flutter and you'll find me glued to a blackjack table for the next 72 hours, but I know I'm gambling. Gambling dressed up as an "investment" I don't like. It gives it an element of legitimacy that it does not deserve.
I would love every crypto advert to have to have the whole "when the fun stops, stop" attached to it.
It always reminds me of a (probably mythical) story about Joe Kennedy in 1929 where he sold all his stocks just before the crash because "when the shoe shine boy is giving me stock tips, the market is too popular for its own good"
Crypto is just thousands of shoe shine boys chatting hot air at each other.
I’m glad you emphasised a phrase whose elegance had flown over my head “ the chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment toward itself”. Brilliant. And actually, speaking for myself that sums up the approach to our “forecast the FTSE 100” competition. I just try to consider what might be exercising the world’s collective mindset a few months ahead and consider how that mindset would drive market sentiment, based on years of listening to the news bulletins which usually end with the update on how the markets performed that day. I have no better grasp than that of what moves the indices, and certainly couldn’t claim to understand “market fundamentals”, and funny enough the regulars on here whom I look up to in that respect often do badly in the competition.😆
I have worked in the betting industry for over 42 years and my profit and loss account on my own personal betting performance is, at best, break even.
Crypto - betting Shares - betting Funds - betting Fixed-term and rate savings accounts - betting (although very happy with 6.2% at NS&I) DC Pensions - betting
Most if not all forms of investment - betting
I rest my case
Sorry, but I cant agree with that.
True betting means you can lose your stake. Horses, football, you name it.
Investing means you could lose it all but in reality you dont. Very very few investments lead you to losing your entire stake. Certainly regulated UK investments dont. Worse case scenario is that you might lose 40%-60% if you invest badly or the markets go tits up.
How is ‘losing 40-60%’ any different to crypto. It just happens a lot faster than in investments but the outcome is the same.
I agree, to some degree, all investments are betting, just with varying levels of risk.
The world markets continue to be doing very well. After a bumper November my SIPP has busted it's all time high this month by some margin. Just wish 18 months ago I'd have put 100% in the S&P 500 rather than 20%.
On a slightly more serious note, I've had a couple of interesting meetings recently that is worth passing on.
The first was with some investment bankers the other day (I know, I know) and they were saying that the FTSE250 is looking extremely cheap. One of the impacts has been companies looking to delist and move to the States. But there are also lots of companies (trade and private equity) looking to buy FTSE 250 companies as they are so under-valued.
I was also lucky enough to have ten minutes with Nigel Wood, who is the CEO of L&G. I can't remember meeting anyone so positive and upbeat generally, it was infectious. But specifically, he is very upbeat about the UK economy next year. Reckons there's almost no political risk from the election, as both parties are so aligned from an economic point of view, and that he has high hopes that there are going to be some reforms on the stock market that are going to give it a boost (he's on that committee looking into why it's in such a bad way).
I speculated that might mean getting rid of stamp duty on buying shares (I'd just bought a few BP on a US exchange and avoided 240 quid of charges). Like Humphrey, he didn't confirm or deny that.
On a slightly more serious note, I've had a couple of interesting meetings recently that is worth passing on.
The first was with some investment bankers the other day (I know, I know) and they were saying that the FTSE250 is looking extremely cheap. One of the impacts has been companies looking to delist and move to the States. But there are also lots of companies (trade and private equity) looking to buy FTSE 250 companies as they are so under-valued.
I was also lucky enough to have ten minutes with Nigel Wood, who is the CEO of L&G. I can't remember meeting anyone so positive and upbeat generally, it was infectious. But specifically, he is very upbeat about the UK economy next year. Reckons there's almost no political risk from the election, as both parties are so aligned from an economic point of view, and that he has high hopes that there are going to be some reforms on the stock market that are going to give it a boost (he's on that committee looking into why it's in such a bad way).
I speculated that might mean getting rid of stamp duty on buying shares (I'd just bought a few BP on a US exchange and avoided 240 quid of charges). Like Humphrey, he didn't confirm or deny that.
I've started increasing my holdings in my FTSE250 ETF as it does seem one that has potential to increase.
The world markets continue to be doing very well. After a bumper November my SIPP has busted it's all time high this month by some margin. Just wish 18 months ago I'd have put 100% in the S&P 500 rather than 20%.
Grr. Jealous? Me?
Well at least mine is higher than it's been for quite a while (even though the Mug Punter's Favourite Platform doesn't allow me to see precisely). From memory I think I'm about 8% off all time high. The Vanguard Life Strategy 40% has really shot up in the last few weeks and that's still 7% of my portfolio (it was the 20% I had a beef with and I gradually got shot of all that).
Given my age, I've been working to de-risk my SIPP a bit in the last year, and I've just done a bit more today. Well this is the time of year for turkey-culls The way I've been doing this is to sell off higher -risk or underperforming stuff and dumping the proceeds in a Money Market fund (Premier Miton in my case). It is currently up 4.9% yr-on-yr and now comprises 23% of my SIPP. What will it deliver next year? I think 4.0% is still on, given that the Fed is now indicating gradual rate cuts amounting to 0.75% over the year.
@WishIdStayedinthePub Interesting insights! That could be something for me to consider. In the last few years I've been trying to reduce UK exposure - not so much because I believed I had any insights (beyond the obvious) but more because it dawned on me that mug punters investing via Uk-run funds will always be overweight UK equities whatever they say on the tin. as an overseas based investor the issue on top of that is sterling - but people seem to believe that sterling might be on the turn too, especially aginst the euro, so that's another factor for me (and potentially very good news since most of my overall investments including cash remain in sterling. I'm done with Europe for a while. Germany needs to get a grip. Again, no big market insights. Basically, my conclusion is based on the absolute state of Deutsche Bahn, and that while you are sitting on your hour-late ICE, your phone data signal, if you have one at all, shows the dreaded word "EDGE". How many years since most of you saw that on your phones? OK it's just a metaphor, but it's a good indicator of the condition of what used to be Germany's strengths.
Market being manipulated by some of our experts on here!
FTSE currently up about 150 points in a completely undeserved rise. Moves me from near the top of the board to midway.
The lengths some people go to win our little game!
7848 now not looking too shabby!
Is that figure right, Bob? My app shows the day high ( so far) of 7724 and it has pulled back a bit from then. Maybe its my app but I thought it was always pretty accurate.
Market being manipulated by some of our experts on here!
FTSE currently up about 150 points in a completely undeserved rise. Moves me from near the top of the board to midway.
The lengths some people go to win our little game!
7848 now not looking too shabby!
Is that figure right, Bob? My app shows the day high ( so far) of 7724 and it has pulled back a bit from then. Maybe its my app but I thought it was always pretty accurate.
Market being manipulated by some of our experts on here!
FTSE currently up about 150 points in a completely undeserved rise. Moves me from near the top of the board to midway.
The lengths some people go to win our little game!
7848 now not looking too shabby!
Is that figure right, Bob? My app shows the day high ( so far) of 7724 and it has pulled back a bit from then. Maybe its my app but I thought it was always pretty accurate.
Market being manipulated by some of our experts on here!
FTSE currently up about 150 points in a completely undeserved rise. Moves me from near the top of the board to midway.
The lengths some people go to win our little game!
7848 now not looking too shabby!
Is that figure right, Bob? My app shows the day high ( so far) of 7724 and it has pulled back a bit from then. Maybe its my app but I thought it was always pretty accurate.
I was extrapolating to year end
Doh, sorry.
Btw I noticed that in the list this morning the top 12 were within 1% of each other.
The world markets continue to be doing very well. After a bumper November my SIPP has busted it's all time high this month by some margin. Just wish 18 months ago I'd have put 100% in the S&P 500 rather than 20%.
One of this year's ISAs went here and I'm very pleased with it so far, even though it was less than a month ago.
It seems incredible that a year ago a fair number of commentators were warning of steep falls in 2023 due to company earnings dropping off and rising interest rates. Experts, eh?
The world markets continue to be doing very well. After a bumper November my SIPP has busted it's all time high this month by some margin. Just wish 18 months ago I'd have put 100% in the S&P 500 rather than 20%.
One of this year's ISAs went here and I'm very pleased with it so far, even though it was less than a month ago.
It seems incredible that a year ago a fair number of commentators were warning of steep falls in 2023 due to company earnings dropping off and rising interest rates. Experts, eh?
The S&P500 has almost doubled in 5 years, whereas the FTSE100 Its up about 12% in the same period. It's certainly doing well and long may it continue.
I'd like to bank some profits, but of course it's the age old where do you then put it question.
I’ve got 2 pensions that are taxed at source and come to roughly £10,000 per year. With the interest rates being good my savings are providing extra income. Does this mean I’ve got to fill out a tax return?
Comments
Thats AIM for you - populated almost exclusively by snake oil salesmen
Anyway, one of those topics that could last 10 pages so let's just....
Although I'd say the Fixed term cash isn't really betting as if sensible 100% of your cash is safe and you know what you will be getting by way of return.
By definition gambling on say sport has a negative expected value thanks to the bookmaker's overround.
I can't assess if crypto offers a positive risk premium (I can't see how/why it should) and thus have no interest.
Actually, maybe not. Long way to go!
but as a few minutes ago....... god we'll never hear the end of it if Golfie wins :-:smile:
The first was with some investment bankers the other day (I know, I know) and they were saying that the FTSE250 is looking extremely cheap. One of the impacts has been companies looking to delist and move to the States. But there are also lots of companies (trade and private equity) looking to buy FTSE 250 companies as they are so under-valued.
I was also lucky enough to have ten minutes with Nigel Wood, who is the CEO of L&G. I can't remember meeting anyone so positive and upbeat generally, it was infectious. But specifically, he is very upbeat about the UK economy next year. Reckons there's almost no political risk from the election, as both parties are so aligned from an economic point of view, and that he has high hopes that there are going to be some reforms on the stock market that are going to give it a boost (he's on that committee looking into why it's in such a bad way).
I speculated that might mean getting rid of stamp duty on buying shares (I'd just bought a few BP on a US exchange and avoided 240 quid of charges). Like Humphrey, he didn't confirm or deny that.
FTSE currently up about 150 points in a completely undeserved rise. Moves me from near the top of the board to midway.
The lengths some people go to win our little game!
Well at least mine is higher than it's been for quite a while (even though the Mug Punter's Favourite Platform doesn't allow me to see precisely). From memory I think I'm about 8% off all time high. The Vanguard Life Strategy 40% has really shot up in the last few weeks and that's still 7% of my portfolio (it was the 20% I had a beef with and I gradually got shot of all that).
Given my age, I've been working to de-risk my SIPP a bit in the last year, and I've just done a bit more today. Well this is the time of year for turkey-culls
@WishIdStayedinthePub Interesting insights! That could be something for me to consider. In the last few years I've been trying to reduce UK exposure - not so much because I believed I had any insights (beyond the obvious) but more because it dawned on me that mug punters investing via Uk-run funds will always be overweight UK equities whatever they say on the tin. as an overseas based investor the issue on top of that is sterling - but people seem to believe that sterling might be on the turn too, especially aginst the euro, so that's another factor for me (and potentially very good news since most of my overall investments including cash remain in sterling. I'm done with Europe for a while. Germany needs to get a grip. Again, no big market insights. Basically, my conclusion is based on the absolute state of Deutsche Bahn, and that while you are sitting on your hour-late ICE, your phone data signal, if you have one at all, shows the dreaded word "EDGE". How many years since most of you saw that on your phones? OK it's just a metaphor, but it's a good indicator of the condition of what used to be Germany's strengths.
Critiques welcome!
I'd like to bank some profits, but of course it's the age old where do you then put it question.