@Huskaris you’re right to remind everyone about the UK tax element when comparing PBs and savings accounts. I tend to overlook it, being neither a UK taxpayer as of this year, or an ISA holder which is for UK tax residents only regardless of whether you pay UK tax.
@Huskaris you’re right to remind everyone about the UK tax element when comparing PBs and savings accounts. I tend to overlook it, being neither a UK taxpayer as of this year, or an ISA holder which is for UK tax residents only regardless of whether you pay UK tax.
Typical tax dodging rich bastards, no wonder the UK is such a mess (as you often remind us)
@Huskaris you’re right to remind everyone about the UK tax element when comparing PBs and savings accounts. I tend to overlook it, being neither a UK taxpayer as of this year, or an ISA holder which is for UK tax residents only regardless of whether you pay UK tax.
Typical tax dodging rich bastards, no wonder the UK is such a mess (as you often remind us)
Don’t you worry mate, Prague is a haven for a fair few morally dubious practices, but tax avoidance isn’t one of them. They don’t tax State pensions, mind. And unlike banks, NS&I don’t grass on Brits abroad. Rollin’ in it, me 😉
@Huskaris you’re right to remind everyone about the UK tax element when comparing PBs and savings accounts. I tend to overlook it, being neither a UK taxpayer as of this year, or an ISA holder which is for UK tax residents only regardless of whether you pay UK tax.
Typical tax dodging rich bastards, no wonder the UK is such a mess (as you often remind us)
Don’t you worry mate, Prague is a haven for a fair few morally dubious practices, but tax avoidance isn’t one of them. They don’t tax State pensions, mind. And unlike banks, NS&I don’t grass on Brits abroad. Rollin’ in it, me 😉
I hope to be back there eating at Kantyna and Sia in the new year whilst being morally dubious!!!
20% for the wife this year which was a one off win of £100 last month on a holding of just £500. Which is great but not quite so given that she has had that holding for 20 years and had only received £75 in total in that time prior to this year's win.
This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
Something I feel you and I are in complete harmony in, a good article, thanks.
The bits in bold just have me with my head in my hands at what people are doing... I did make a comment in regards to a lot of this on their thread the other day haha.
It's only attraction is volatility, well I'm actually off to a wedding in Vegas today and I guarantee I will see people telling me they have a "system" on roulette (just double your stake each time and you end up winning the amount you first staked every time (apart from the fact that this grows exponentially until eventually on one run you WILL run out of cash)).
If something's only attraction is volatility, it's gambling, plain and simple. I don't mind that, I love a flutter and you'll find me glued to a blackjack table for the next 72 hours, but I know I'm gambling. Gambling dressed up as an "investment" I don't like. It gives it an element of legitimacy that it does not deserve.
I would love every crypto advert to have to have the whole "when the fun stops, stop" attached to it.
It always reminds me of a (probably mythical) story about Joe Kennedy in 1929 where he sold all his stocks just before the crash because "when the shoe shine boy is giving me stock tips, the market is too popular for its own good"
Crypto is just thousands of shoe shine boys chatting hot air at each other.
This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
Something I feel you and I are in complete harmony in, a good article, thanks.
The bits in bold just have me with my head in my hands at what people are doing... I did make a comment in regards to a lot of this on their thread the other day haha.
It's only attraction is volatility, well I'm actually off to a wedding in Vegas today and I guarantee I will see people telling me they have a "system" on roulette (just double your stake each time and you end up winning the amount you first staked every time (apart from the fact that this grows exponentially until eventually on one run you WILL run out of cash)).
If something's only attraction is volatility, it's gambling, plain and simple. I don't mind that, I love a flutter and you'll find me glued to a blackjack table for the next 72 hours, but I know I'm gambling. Gambling dressed up as an "investment" I don't like. It gives it an element of legitimacy that it does not deserve.
I would love every crypto advert to have to have the whole "when the fun stops, stop" attached to it.
It always reminds me of a (probably mythical) story about Joe Kennedy in 1929 where he sold all his stocks just before the crash because "when the shoe shine boy is giving me stock tips, the market is too popular for its own good"
Crypto is just thousands of shoe shine boys chatting hot air at each other.
I’m glad you emphasised a phrase whose elegance had flown over my head “ the chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment toward itself”. Brilliant. And actually, speaking for myself that sums up the approach to our “forecast the FTSE 100” competition. I just try to consider what might be exercising the world’s collective mindset a few months ahead and consider how that mindset would drive market sentiment, based on years of listening to the news bulletins which usually end with the update on how the markets performed that day. I have no better grasp than that of what moves the indices, and certainly couldn’t claim to understand “market fundamentals”, and funny enough the regulars on here whom I look up to in that respect often do badly in the competition.😆
This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
Something I feel you and I are in complete harmony in, a good article, thanks.
The bits in bold just have me with my head in my hands at what people are doing... I did make a comment in regards to a lot of this on their thread the other day haha.
It's only attraction is volatility, well I'm actually off to a wedding in Vegas today and I guarantee I will see people telling me they have a "system" on roulette (just double your stake each time and you end up winning the amount you first staked every time (apart from the fact that this grows exponentially until eventually on one run you WILL run out of cash)).
If something's only attraction is volatility, it's gambling, plain and simple. I don't mind that, I love a flutter and you'll find me glued to a blackjack table for the next 72 hours, but I know I'm gambling. Gambling dressed up as an "investment" I don't like. It gives it an element of legitimacy that it does not deserve.
I would love every crypto advert to have to have the whole "when the fun stops, stop" attached to it.
It always reminds me of a (probably mythical) story about Joe Kennedy in 1929 where he sold all his stocks just before the crash because "when the shoe shine boy is giving me stock tips, the market is too popular for its own good"
Crypto is just thousands of shoe shine boys chatting hot air at each other.
I’m glad you emphasised a phrase whose elegance had flown over my head “ the chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment toward itself”. Brilliant. And actually, speaking for myself that sums up the approach to our “forecast the FTSE 100” competition. I just try to consider what might be exercising the world’s collective mindset a few months ahead and consider how that mindset would drive market sentiment, based on years of listening to the news bulletins which usually end with the update on how the markets performed that day. I have no better grasp than that of what moves the indices, and certainly couldn’t claim to understand “market fundamentals”, and funny enough the regulars on here whom I look up to in that respect often do badly in the competition.😆
I have worked in the betting industry for over 42 years and my profit and loss account on my own personal betting performance is, at best, break even.
Crypto - betting Shares - betting Funds - betting Fixed-term and rate savings accounts - betting (although very happy with 6.2% at NS&I) DC Pensions - betting
This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
Something I feel you and I are in complete harmony in, a good article, thanks.
The bits in bold just have me with my head in my hands at what people are doing... I did make a comment in regards to a lot of this on their thread the other day haha.
It's only attraction is volatility, well I'm actually off to a wedding in Vegas today and I guarantee I will see people telling me they have a "system" on roulette (just double your stake each time and you end up winning the amount you first staked every time (apart from the fact that this grows exponentially until eventually on one run you WILL run out of cash)).
If something's only attraction is volatility, it's gambling, plain and simple. I don't mind that, I love a flutter and you'll find me glued to a blackjack table for the next 72 hours, but I know I'm gambling. Gambling dressed up as an "investment" I don't like. It gives it an element of legitimacy that it does not deserve.
I would love every crypto advert to have to have the whole "when the fun stops, stop" attached to it.
It always reminds me of a (probably mythical) story about Joe Kennedy in 1929 where he sold all his stocks just before the crash because "when the shoe shine boy is giving me stock tips, the market is too popular for its own good"
Crypto is just thousands of shoe shine boys chatting hot air at each other.
I’m glad you emphasised a phrase whose elegance had flown over my head “ the chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment toward itself”. Brilliant. And actually, speaking for myself that sums up the approach to our “forecast the FTSE 100” competition. I just try to consider what might be exercising the world’s collective mindset a few months ahead and consider how that mindset would drive market sentiment, based on years of listening to the news bulletins which usually end with the update on how the markets performed that day. I have no better grasp than that of what moves the indices, and certainly couldn’t claim to understand “market fundamentals”, and funny enough the regulars on here whom I look up to in that respect often do badly in the competition.😆
I have worked in the betting industry for over 42 years and my profit and loss account on my own personal betting performance is, at best, break even.
Crypto - betting Shares - betting Funds - betting Fixed-term and rate savings accounts - betting (although very happy with 6.2% at NS&I) DC Pensions - betting
Most if not all forms of investment - betting
I rest my case
Sorry, but I cant agree with that.
True betting means you can lose your stake. Horses, football, you name it.
Investing means you could lose it all but in reality you dont. Very very few investments lead you to losing your entire stake. Certainly regulated UK investments dont. Worse case scenario is that you might lose 40%-60% if you invest badly or the markets go tits up.
Comments
Missus had a return of 4% off max.
This is an editorial in today's FT. There's no point in upsetting the cryptobros on their thread, but I find it really compelling.
The crypto bulls are back again. Bitcoin surged to $42,000 on Monday, its highest in nearly 20 months, marking a dramatic 150 per cent rise so far this year. After losing more than 60 per cent of its value in 2022, its climb back has sparked yet another wave of euphoric calls: industry veterans now project the token will breach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and at least $750,000 by 2026. Competitors including ethereum, dogecoin, solana and cardano are all up by double-digit percentages too.
As with any instrument, the investment case for crypto hinges on finding a convincing narrative. But unlike other assets, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor is it backed by anything. Some may argue that gold is not much different. Yet the glossy metal has been trusted as an effective store of wealth for millennia, and has been shown to offer some protection in down markets and times of high uncertainty — living up to its status as a hedge.
The same cannot be said for bitcoin. Its most consistent facet is its inconsistency. What the cryptocurrency ultimately offers, then, is a chance to speculate on the market’s sentiment towards itself. And here the current pro-bitcoin sales pitch from its evangelists appears to be three-fold.
First, they argue, a “risk-on” mood has returned to financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have become increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate-raising cycle, and that cuts will happen sooner than it is signalling. With ample liquidity, and rate expectations lower, punting for something more speculative seems appealing. And rising bitcoin prices tend to generate a buying frenzy, which reinforces itself — until it inevitably pops.
The bulls are, however, also claiming that this time it is more than just hype. The second part of their pitch is that the closure of the most high-profile criminal cases that have hung over the crypto-market for the past year is akin to a cleansing moment. Last month the US successfully prosecuted Sam Bankman-Fried, former chief executive of FTX, for fraud, while Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, pleaded guilty to charges related to money laundering and sanctions breaches.
Third, crypto optimists expect signs of a possible US regulatory approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, among others, to drive a wave of crypto fund products backed by mainstream asset managers. Wider institutional adoption by serious players, they claim, gives cryptocurrency credibility.
But the buy-and-hold case is full of holes. Crypto’s brushes with the law are far from over. In the nascent industry, the authorities are still cautiously calibrating regulations and hearing legal cases. Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said the sector was rife with “fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering”.
Spot bitcoin ETF applications, if approved, may attract more investors who seek crypto exposure yet are fearful of theft and lost coins in digital wallets and exchanges. But they do not protect investors from crypto’s volatility. As it is, Grayscale’s private trusts tracking cryptocurrencies are trading at absurd multiples of their underlying value. For mainstream asset managers, ETFs are also just another way to collect fees from investors seeking crypto exposure, not necessarily a backing of the asset class itself.
What remains of the bull case, then, is the flimsy argument that there appears to be some appetite for speculation, and that bitcoin is a speculative asset. This is basically the “greater fool theory” playbook for investors: all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone silly enough to buy the asset at an even higher price. That will last, until it doesn’t. Bitcoin has collapsed before; it will surely do so again.
Something I feel you and I are in complete harmony in, a good article, thanks.
The bits in bold just have me with my head in my hands at what people are doing... I did make a comment in regards to a lot of this on their thread the other day haha.
It's only attraction is volatility, well I'm actually off to a wedding in Vegas today and I guarantee I will see people telling me they have a "system" on roulette (just double your stake each time and you end up winning the amount you first staked every time (apart from the fact that this grows exponentially until eventually on one run you WILL run out of cash)).
If something's only attraction is volatility, it's gambling, plain and simple. I don't mind that, I love a flutter and you'll find me glued to a blackjack table for the next 72 hours, but I know I'm gambling. Gambling dressed up as an "investment" I don't like. It gives it an element of legitimacy that it does not deserve.
I would love every crypto advert to have to have the whole "when the fun stops, stop" attached to it.
It always reminds me of a (probably mythical) story about Joe Kennedy in 1929 where he sold all his stocks just before the crash because "when the shoe shine boy is giving me stock tips, the market is too popular for its own good"
Crypto is just thousands of shoe shine boys chatting hot air at each other.
Crypto - betting
Shares - betting
Funds - betting
Fixed-term and rate savings accounts - betting (although very happy with 6.2% at NS&I)
DC Pensions - betting
Most if not all forms of investment - betting
I rest my case
True betting means you can lose your stake. Horses, football, you name it.
Investing means you could lose it all but in reality you dont. Very very few investments lead you to losing your entire stake. Certainly regulated UK investments dont. Worse case scenario is that you might lose 40%-60% if you invest badly or the markets go tits up.