As an amateur investor with a diversified portfolio, I am bricking it at the moment.
If the diversification includes fixed interest & property as well as equities then the losses shouldn't be as bad as what you are reading about. If markets fall 5% I suggest your portfolio will only fall 2-3%.
Correct. Am still concerned with bad news after bad news. Even you thought the Corona virus impact was over on Monday but just take a look what's happened since.
Just keep remembering the market looks forward and discounts the future - it's obviously hard to define but if markets continue to fall (eg FTSE now down 27% for the year) then they will be discounting a worst-case scenario which may very well not occur.
As an amateur investor, I've read a lot of posts on here and have a lot of respect for the knowledge and expertise of those who post on here and share their knowledge so freely and openly.
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
So if I do not need or cannot access my investment for at least 3.5 years ( Im 51years old ) should I be ready for HariKari or ignoring the whole thing. My investments down 7% as of yesterday
It's clear to me that a lot of financial 'experts' are as clueless as the rest of us. This is unchartered territory and a rolling problem with no real historical precedent to base your views on.
I can see the FTSE dropping down to 3700 if Governments don't get a grip of this. Every day there seems more evidence of governments in denial.
I have a pension I was going to draw down on in May. Given the situation would it be better to defer this for a year and let the stock market hopefully recover?
So the floor was 6500. Tomorrow you expect the floor to be 6300 and the next floor could be 6000/6200. Can you tell us in your bizarre language, your prediction figure for when the basement is reached ?
As I said, I have no idea.
All I was doing is giving the benefit of my 35 year experience of watching the markets. The FTSE isn't going to fall through the floor tomorrow & end up at 4000 points. The US brought in "circuit breakers" after the 1987 crash (no idea if they still have them) which was supposed to stop a complete meltdown. Once the FTSE gets to a certain point traders (and even some posters on here) will start to buy again.
Also, I didn't say the floor was 6500 as if it was a given. More that this week 6500 has been tested & has shown there is some resistance there. Seeing as the Dow Jones has has fallen more than 4% today I would imagine the FTSE will start lower tomorrow, but only as a knee jerk reaction. There is a level at which it will stabilise. I'm guessing 6300 for the short term. No idea about the next couple of months but stand by my assertion that in 6 months things will be better. FTSE above 6750 & more likely 7000.
So the floor was 6500. Tomorrow you expect the floor to be 6300 and the next floor could be 6000/6200. Can you tell us in your bizarre language, your prediction figure for when the basement is reached ?
As I said, I have no idea.
All I was doing is giving the benefit of my 35 year experience of watching the markets. The FTSE isn't going to fall through the floor tomorrow & end up at 4000 points. The US brought in "circuit breakers" after the 1987 crash (no idea if they still have them) which was supposed to stop a complete meltdown. Once the FTSE gets to a certain point traders (and even some posters on here) will start to buy again.
Also, I didn't say the floor was 6500 as if it was a given. More that this week 6500 has been tested & has shown there is some resistance there. Seeing as the Dow Jones has has fallen more than 4% today I would imagine the FTSE will start lower tomorrow, but only as a knee jerk reaction. There is a level at which it will stabilise. I'm guessing 6300 for the short term. No idea about the next couple of months but stand by my assertion that in 6 months things will be better. FTSE above 6750 & more likely 7000.
Clearly.
As I said earlier nobody has a clue. We're heading towards 5000 and the virus hasn't really kicked in yet.
So the floor was 6500. Tomorrow you expect the floor to be 6300 and the next floor could be 6000/6200. Can you tell us in your bizarre language, your prediction figure for when the basement is reached ?
As I said, I have no idea.
All I was doing is giving the benefit of my 35 year experience of watching the markets. The FTSE isn't going to fall through the floor tomorrow & end up at 4000 points. The US brought in "circuit breakers" after the 1987 crash (no idea if they still have them) which was supposed to stop a complete meltdown. Once the FTSE gets to a certain point traders (and even some posters on here) will start to buy again.
Also, I didn't say the floor was 6500 as if it was a given. More that this week 6500 has been tested & has shown there is some resistance there. Seeing as the Dow Jones has has fallen more than 4% today I would imagine the FTSE will start lower tomorrow, but only as a knee jerk reaction. There is a level at which it will stabilise. I'm guessing 6300 for the short term. No idea about the next couple of months but stand by my assertion that in 6 months things will be better. FTSE above 6750 & more likely 7000.
Clearly.
As I said earlier nobody has a clue. We're heading towards 5000 and the virus hasn't really kicked in yet.
Absolutely, but the majority of us aren't pretending we do know, even if we are in the industry.
I will admit I'm getting a bit concerned, but more so because I have 2 or 3 clients with things maturity in June & need the FTSE100 to be at a certain level for them to pay out a profit. If the FTSE is below 4500 then they may actually start losing money.
However, as I've said before, the markes fall on uncertainty & rise with certainty. I still have no idea when all this madness will stop, but I certain that it will & things will recover.......and sooner than some may think.
As for @iainment. May time maybe a bit early for things to have righted themselves so I fear you may have to wait a few months after that before taking your pension. Depending in what you were planning on doing that is. Probably not the best time to buy an annuity but going into Drawdown & only taking a partial Tax free lump sum might be ok.
I will admit I'm getting about concerned, but more so because I gave 2 or 3 clients with things maturity in June & need the FTSE100 to be at a certain level for them to pay out a profit. If the FTSE is below 4500 then they may actually stay losing money.
However, as I've said before, the markes fall on uncertainty & rise with certainty. I still have no idea when all this madness will stop, but I certain that it will & things will recover.
As for @iainment. May time maybe a bit early for things to have righted themselves so I fear you may have to wait a few months after that before taking your pension. Depending in what you were planning on doing that is.
I was looking to use my private pension to allow me to work part time until I retire next summer. My IFA tells me that I might still get the quote in full as there doesn’t seem to be a market rate reduction clause in the paperwork. So hopefully I’ll be ok, if not I just work through to when I’m 66.
I will admit I'm getting a bit concerned, but more so because I have 2 or 3 clients with things maturity in June & need the FTSE100 to be at a certain level for them to pay out a profit. If the FTSE is below 4500 then they may actually start losing money.
However, as I've said before, the markes fall on uncertainty & rise with certainty. I still have no idea when all this madness will stop, but I certain that it will & things will recover.......and sooner than some may think.
As for @iainment. May time maybe a bit early for things to have righted themselves so I fear you may have to wait a few months after that before taking your pension. Depending in what you were planning on doing that is. Probably not the best time to buy an annuity but going into Drawdown & only taking a partial Tax free lump sum might be ok.
But there has to be a point where the selling is overdone? The market seems to be factoring in for coronavirus on a daily basis.
As an amateur investor, I've read a lot of posts on here and have a lot of respect for the knowledge and expertise of those who post on here and share their knowledge so freely and openly.
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
Just got in from a lovely walk and a quick top-up shopping at my local supermarket (where there is no pasta and only a handful of toilet rolls left!) to find the FTSE is now down over 500 points and the Dow has opened over 2000 points down). My prediction of the FTSE falling through the 5000 mark this week still on!
As an amateur investor, I've read a lot of posts on here and have a lot of respect for the knowledge and expertise of those who post on here and share their knowledge so freely and openly.
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
Just got in from a lovely walk and a quick top-up shopping at my local supermarket (where there is no pasta and only a handful of toilet rolls left!) to find the FTSE is now down over 500 points and the Dow has opened over 2000 points down). My prediction of the FTSE falling through the 5000 mark this week still on!
As an amateur investor, I've read a lot of posts on here and have a lot of respect for the knowledge and expertise of those who post on here and share their knowledge so freely and openly.
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
Just got in from a lovely walk and a quick top-up shopping at my local supermarket (where there is no pasta and only a handful of toilet rolls left!) to find the FTSE is now down over 500 points and the Dow has opened over 2000 points down). My prediction of the FTSE falling through the 5000 mark this week still on!
Let's hope the traders feel more confident soon!
Rivalling 1987 at present.....
Yup. Sadly I remember it well.
But this is worse and I fear the market will fall much further before someone says enough.
As an amateur investor, I've read a lot of posts on here and have a lot of respect for the knowledge and expertise of those who post on here and share their knowledge so freely and openly.
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
Just got in from a lovely walk and a quick top-up shopping at my local supermarket (where there is no pasta and only a handful of toilet rolls left!) to find the FTSE is now down over 500 points and the Dow has opened over 2000 points down). My prediction of the FTSE falling through the 5000 mark this week still on!
Let's hope the traders feel more confident soon!
Rivalling 1987 at present.....
Yup. Sadly I remember it well.
But this is worse and I fear the market will fall much further before someone says enough.
I'm hoping it will bottom out around 3700 to 3750 which is approx 50% below value at start of year. If it drops below that even my extreme pessimism will have been exceeded.
Yes, I saw that too. High yield US bonds in trouble. So not only are equities tanking so is fixed interest.
Time to be holding Gold perhaps.....?
Even gold has been dropping due to fears of deflation!
I still think this is a 1987 style crash, which will recover reasonably quickly for the reasons you state, Golfy, if the virus and oil fallout turn out to be temporary and we don't tip into a full blown recession. If the latter, it will take a bit longer, but it won't be 2008.
At least it's good news on the Charlton front ... it does feel like the 1980s in many ways ...
For my own purposes, I'm sticking with my 1987 template ....
.. but the FTSE All World has already almost reached my target low of 280 so getting a bit twitchy.
Question then is, is the bull market really over? Looks like it and, if so, there should be one more opportunity to get out, at maybe 10% from the highs. If not, roll on the Roaring twenties (which also recovered after the Spanish flu) and off we go again.
With the FTSE 100, if it breaks below 4600 before it recovers, then we ARE in uncharted territory as that breaks a channel going back to 1987. I think we'll all be working at lot longer in that case.
As an amateur investor, I've read a lot of posts on here and have a lot of respect for the knowledge and expertise of those who post on here and share their knowledge so freely and openly.
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
Just got in from a lovely walk and a quick top-up shopping at my local supermarket (where there is no pasta and only a handful of toilet rolls left!) to find the FTSE is now down over 500 points and the Dow has opened over 2000 points down). My prediction of the FTSE falling through the 5000 mark this week still on!
Let's hope the traders feel more confident soon!
Rivalling 1987 at present.....
Yup. Sadly I remember it well.
But this is worse and I fear the market will fall much further before someone says enough.
I'm hoping it will bottom out around 3700 to 3750 which is approx 50% below value at start of year. If it drops below that even my extreme pessimism will have been exceeded.
A lot of people will really suffer from this.
I can see your 3700. 2003 - 2008 channel would be about 3900 but really don't think this is going to be as bad as 2008.
Several people have rightly pointed out that uncertainty is what spooks markets. One of the reasons for this uncertainty is the lack of global leadership, by which is meant leaders with the maturity to reach out to other leaders and agree on co-ordinated measures. Trump is of course the worst example of this, and his speech yesterday and his complete lack of a strategy up to now is what has driven the markets down today. He is basically panicking because he seems to think that high- riding markets are key to his re-election. We are all now paying the price for having this oaf as head of the world’s most powerful country.
Since this round of postings have started since the FTSE has started collapsing, I have really not understood why anyone thinks this is just a temporary blip that will quickly correct itself. The Coronavirus scare plus the economic slowdown it is now certain to cause means we are in unchartered water. With seemingly no-one able to stop the selling - traders all now disliking the uncertainty and not feeling confident, poor dears - who know where the FTSE is going to bottom out. Personally, I can see the FTSE going through the 5000 barrier in the next few days - the question is how far will it drop? Your guess is as good as mine - I'm hopeful the 4500 mark might see the bottom, but I wouldn't argue against the 3700 called by @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
As an amateur investor, I've read a lot of posts on here and have a lot of respect for the knowledge and expertise of those who post on here and share their knowledge so freely and openly.
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
Just got in from a lovely walk and a quick top-up shopping at my local supermarket (where there is no pasta and only a handful of toilet rolls left!) to find the FTSE is now down over 500 points and the Dow has opened over 2000 points down). My prediction of the FTSE falling through the 5000 mark this week still on!
Let's hope the traders feel more confident soon!
Rivalling 1987 at present.....
Then there was a reason for the crash - US trade figs, combined with trebble witching hour. Didnt help that the UK stock market was shut on the Friday (due to the hurricane that Micheal Fish denied) and so Monday the UK opened up lower & kept going south.
At the moment I cant see a reason for the dramatic falls. Yes, global companies are going to be hit by the fall-out of Covid 19, but they aren't all having their profits halved.
Since this round of postings have started since the FTSE has started collapsing, I have really not understood why anyone thinks this is just a temporary blip that will quickly correct itself. The Coronavirus scare plus the economic slowdown it is now certain to cause means we are in unchartered water. With seemingly no-one able to stop the selling - traders all now disliking the uncertainty and not feeling confident, poor dears - who know where the FTSE is going to bottom out. Personally, I can see the FTSE going through the 5000 barrier in the next few days - the question is how far will it drop? Your guess is as good as mine - I'm hopeful the 4500 mark might see the bottom, but I wouldn't argue against the 3700 called by @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
I sort of agree. However, just because the FTSE, Dow, S&P etc are all down 10% doesn't necessarily mean your pension has lost that amount. As said earlier, a well balanced portfolio should mean seeing losses of half that, or less . I know that might not seem comforting, but unless you are 100% in a FTSE tracker fund things arent as bad as the headline figures suggest
As an amateur investor, I've read a lot of posts on here and have a lot of respect for the knowledge and expertise of those who post on here and share their knowledge so freely and openly.
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
Just got in from a lovely walk and a quick top-up shopping at my local supermarket (where there is no pasta and only a handful of toilet rolls left!) to find the FTSE is now down over 500 points and the Dow has opened over 2000 points down). My prediction of the FTSE falling through the 5000 mark this week still on!
Let's hope the traders feel more confident soon!
Rivalling 1987 at present.....
Then there was a reason for the crash - US trade figs, combined with trebble witching hour. Didnt help that the UK stock market was shut on the Friday (due to the hurricane that Micheal Fish denied) and so Monday the UK opened up lower & kept going south.
At the moment I cant see a reason for the dramatic falls. Yes, global companies are going to be hit by the fall-out of Covid 19, but they aren't all having their profits halved.
I agree with you. The selling seems a huge overreaction yet it continues - have companies really lost this much value?
10.87% fall today and 7.7% on Monday seems OTT. Politicians need to inspire confidence.
Comments
dumper
average they cried and cried
put more on moron
Poxy markets
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
I can see the FTSE dropping down to 3700 if Governments don't get a grip of this. Every day there seems more evidence of governments in denial.
Given the situation would it be better to defer this for a year and let the stock market hopefully recover?
However, as I've said before, the markes fall on uncertainty & rise with certainty. I still have no idea when all this madness will stop, but I certain that it will & things will recover.......and sooner than some may think.
As for @iainment. May time maybe a bit early for things to have righted themselves so I fear you may have to wait a few months after that before taking your pension. Depending in what you were planning on doing that is. Probably not the best time to buy an annuity but going into Drawdown & only taking a partial Tax free lump sum might be ok.
Let's hope the traders feel more confident soon!
But this is worse and I fear the market will fall much further before someone says enough.
A lot of people will really suffer from this.
.. but the FTSE All World has already almost reached my target low of 280 so getting a bit twitchy.
Question then is, is the bull market really over? Looks like it and, if so, there should be one more opportunity to get out, at maybe 10% from the highs. If not, roll on the Roaring twenties (which also recovered after the Spanish flu) and off we go again.
With the FTSE 100, if it breaks below 4600 before it recovers, then we ARE in uncharted territory as that breaks a channel going back to 1987. I think we'll all be working at lot longer in that case.
Usual caveat, just another mug punter ....
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
At the moment I cant see a reason for the dramatic falls. Yes, global companies are going to be hit by the fall-out of Covid 19, but they aren't all having their profits halved.
10.87% fall today and 7.7% on Monday seems OTT. Politicians need to inspire confidence.