A very important one for Europe, and first round results due tonight. Another shock election result for anti-Europe/anti-immigration Le Pen, or a victory for the moderates Macron or Fillon?
Since this is the htread for further discussion, I'd like to paste what I wrote on the other thread.
If that is the final figure for Le Pen, I am delighted because it would represent a lower figure than her opinion polls for most of this year. In March she was above 26%, and the graph has been downward ever since.
So any "benefit" from Thursday's attack did not materialise.
I am cautiously pleased, as I was after the recent Dutch result, and the Austrian result back in September, as well as fading AfD in Germany.
Since this is the htread for further discussion, I'd like to paste what I wrote on the other thread.
If that is the final figure for Le Pen, I am delighted because it would represent a lower figure than her opinion polls for most of this year. In March she was above 26%, and the graph has been downward ever since.
So any "benefit" from Thursday's attack did not materialise.
I am cautiously pleased, as I was after the recent Dutch result, and the Austrian result back in September, as well as fading AfD in Germany.
Right, let's play a game of SDAddick attempts to interpret election data for an election he doesn't really understand in a country he doesn't really understand, and then compare it hamfistedly to the US election which has numerous key differences. What could go wrong?
So if those numbers hold, Le Pen pretty much hit her pre-election numbers of 22%. Prague, as you say, the trend is downward, especially on the heels of a terrorist attack, which is largely good.
What Trump (and he is now the benchmark for the rest of these movements/candidates/parties) did that helped to put him over the top was, in the general election, expand beyond his base and turn out 90%+ of Republicans and Republican leaning Independents. Those will be the large number of people who disapprove/don't like him, but still voted for him (worth noting that more Clinton voters voted FOR her, whereas more Trump voters voted AGAINST Clinton). Many of those people "came home" in the final month or so of the election, which is why the race "broke" so late and so narrowly*.
What I expect will be different here is that Le Pen and these other far right nationalists move just do not have that base to draw from--conservative leaning voters willing to unite behind whoever the conservative is (even if it's far, far further to the right than they're used to). Because it's not a binary political party system, she, and others, need to woo voters from other candidates/parties. And as Harry Enten points out, there really isn't anything to indicate she can do that in anywhere near the numbers she'd need.
These populist, nationalists movement, for as much as we call them "populist," aren't actually THAT popular. They're targeted at a certain section of the population, and in electoral and overall terms, that number isn't really that high. When you think of the term populist, you think of political movements or figures that are transformative and popular, like Hugo Chavez or Fidel Castro (who, for all their faults, had very large public support, and if you say they didn't then they would like to have a word). In modern political parlance, it seems to means "something that is nationalist and applies to anywhere from 25-35%ish, max, of the electorate."
Unless Macron (side note, underrated maker of Charlton kits) has suicided people in the past or has been highly irresponsible with his email accounts, he should be France's next PM.
*I make a lot of statistical claims in there from months of having read analysis of election numbers, I'll try to find a source or two that back that up without having to link to 17 different articles.
Round 2 is on 7 May 2017. Seems a strange way of doing things for all its faults I do prefer FPTP.
Not really comparable since we don't have a presidential system, although our FPTP is what gives us dysfunctional political parties trying to hold together increasingly incompatible coalitions of support and disenfranchises most of the people most of the time.
I think you need French citizenship mate, but I've not looked into it
I've asked my uncle as he voted. He lives in Montpellier, but I think as he has been living there for many years, he registered to become a French citizen so now maybe he has dual nationality.
Since this is the htread for further discussion, I'd like to paste what I wrote on the other thread.
If that is the final figure for Le Pen, I am delighted because it would represent a lower figure than her opinion polls for most of this year. In March she was above 26%, and the graph has been downward ever since.
So any "benefit" from Thursday's attack did not materialise.
I am cautiously pleased, as I was after the recent Dutch result, and the Austrian result back in September, as well as fading AfD in Germany.
Right, let's play a game of SDAddick attempts to interpret election data for an election he doesn't really understand in a country he doesn't really understand, and then compare it hamfistedly to the US election which has numerous key differences. What could go wrong?
So if those numbers hold, Le Pen pretty much hit her pre-election numbers of 22%. Prague, as you say, the trend is downward, especially on the heels of a terrorist attack, which is largely good.
What Trump (and he is now the benchmark for the rest of these movements/candidates/parties) did that helped to put him over the top was, in the general election, expand beyond his base and turn out 90%+ of Republicans and Republican leaning Independents. Those will be the large number of people who disapprove/don't like him, but still voted for him (worth noting that more Clinton voters voted FOR her, whereas more Trump voters voted AGAINST Clinton). Many of those people "came home" in the final month or so of the election, which is why the race "broke" so late and so narrowly*.
What I expect will be different here is that Le Pen and these other far right nationalists move just do not have that base to draw from--conservative leaning voters willing to unite behind whoever the conservative is (even if it's far, far further to the right than they're used to). Because it's not a binary political party system, she, and others, need to woo voters from other candidates/parties. And as Harry Enten points out, there really isn't anything to indicate she can do that in anywhere near the numbers she'd need.
These populist, nationalists movement, for as much as we call them "populist," aren't actually THAT popular. They're targeted at a certain section of the population, and in electoral and overall terms, that number isn't really that high. When you think of the term populist, you think of political movements or figures that are transformative and popular, like Hugo Chavez or Fidel Castro (who, for all their faults, had very large public support, and if you say they didn't then they would like to have a word). In modern political parlance, it seems to means "something that is nationalist and applies to anywhere from 25-35%ish, max, of the electorate."
Unless Macron (side note, underrated maker of Charlton kits) has suicided people in the past or has been highly irresponsible with his email accounts, he should be France's next PM.
*I make a lot of statistical claims in there from months of having read analysis of election numbers, I'll try to find a source or two that back that up without having to link to 17 different articles.
Président, not PM, otherwise sound reasoning, especially the bit about 'populist' not actually being that popular.
1. The opinion pollsters. They were very accurate, and in particular were accurately tracking the downward trend of Le Pen since March, when they had her on more than 26%.
2. The French people. 78% is an excellent turnout, not least against the background of an alleged terror threat.
Le Pen has announced that she's 'stepping down' as leader of the National Front .. quite remarkable, although the presidential election is ostensibly to elect a person and not a party, especially with these two 'outsiders'
I suspect a ruse, an attempt to portray herself as not as nasty and radical as the leader of the NF .. whatever the result, France is in a political mess
Le Pen has announced that she's 'stepping down' as leader of the National Front .. quite remarkable, although the presidential election is ostensibly to elect a person and not a party, especially with these two 'outsiders'
I suspect a ruse, an attempt to portray herself as not as nasty and radical as the leader of the NF .. whatever the result, France is in a political mess
I give the French people a bit more credit than falling for a 'look, I'm not the leader of the National Front'. She realises the brand is toxic for the majority, but she is the NF.
Round 2 is on 7 May 2017. Seems a strange way of doing things for all its faults I do prefer FPTP.
The French system allows for anybody to stand. Historically the two Round 1 winners require more than 20% to win through. Instead of parties cutting deals out of sight, the losing candidates get to sponsor one of the two winners and then the French electorate get to choose in a fortnight.
In this case all defeated candidates bar Melenchon are backing Macron.
It has been established that Le Pen has made gains in the north eastern "rust belt" - this has added to the core FN base which is not dissimilar to the map of Vichy France!
Le Pen has called for liberty for the french and for the people to overthrow the ruling elite. Familiar populist, anti-establishment rhetoric. As posted elsewhere, this is unlikely to appeal to voters who backed socialist candidates - they make up 25% of the electorate. She is using the Trump/Farage/Breitbart playbook and her party is propped up by loans from Russian banks.
This is not the result which the Daily Mail and Farage wanted nor predicted. Their problem is that the EU and the Euro is simply not that unpopular in France. It is 10% unemployment along with security issues which is top of the agenda. And Macron has a pro-euro, pro jobs agenda.
Melenchon (independent Socialist) has not yet accepted the "estimate". One couldn't get a cigarette paper between his policy positions and Corbyn / Podemos. And this says alot about where Corbyn is on Brexit.
FTFP appears to work if you have rational centre left and centre right alternatives from which to choose. Whether that is Heath vs Wison or Major vs Kinnock (then Major vs Blair), the electorate had choices based on manifestos that talked to reform not revolution.
But western democracies have an explosion of populism not dissimilar to the intra-war period in the last century. That might suit those who only want to engage via social media but it leaves a huge political risk of extremism.
Talking of political risk, the euro is up two cents on the dollar and the French stock market is at a nine year high! That doesn't mean Macron is sure to win but the nightmare of a Melenchon Le Pen run off has been avoided.
Le Pen has banned skinheads from her rallies and kicked her father out of the NF. And now she leaves the FN. But as they say in Ireland, the apple doesn't fall far from the tree!
For those interested, there is an opportunity to learn about the 5th Republic as its political lanscape transforms. Like most western democracies it has shifted to the right over the last 15-20 years.
And like Westminster, new forrces are emerging very rapidly. Le Pen and the FN have gone up 5% in five years. Macron and En Marche! has gone from 0 to 23% in 12 months.
Just like Trump, Brexit and LePen, Macron is a product of the failure of post crash political economics. But he is the exception because his programme talks of meritocracy and solutions, not populist blame of the elites.
And finally both Le Pen and Macron are very savvy on social media. Macron is not Clinton and he will be very attractive to all shades of opinions - no 30 year track record in the establishment.
What is different about the French system is not just the Presidetial eleection but "round 3" in June when the people elect around 600 to the legislature. At that point we will see whether Macron has revolutionised the system - whether he has a bloc with which he can work to form a government.
Five years ago that was a traditional left vs right set up where the FN had just two representatives - not dissimilar to UKIP!
So while we vote for the MPs to deliver Brexit, the French electorate will decide the make up that dictates whether Macron can deliver his programme of reform, jobs and strenghthening the EU and the Euro. Macron has started a new party from scratch and is seeking to stand head teachers, doctors and entrepreneurs as candidates... a new way to "take back control"!
Macron is the archetypal demigogue of modern politics. His ridiculous personal biography only including his grandma in it because she'd been working class in her schooldays, is the first carefully constructed personal hagiography. His arrogance for engage and smarm, shows up his utter misunderstanding of the non-bourgeoise.
The irony is that much of white provincial France would do better socially under Le Pen than Macron, not the man who claims to be of them from Amiens. He is pro EU, which of course underwrites huge swathes of provincial France, but few of them are able to accept that.
Macron's the man to cynically rob the liberal ideal for Rostchild and his banking friends. Would I vote for him against Le Pen? Yes. Would I vote for his awful En Marche party? No. His autocratic tendencies will attempt to un-democratically dominate legislation and the legislative bodies. The French bourgeois will only support when it pays them, if he doesn't play to them he'll be one term. Hence it'll all be for them.
Comments
The "nightmare" scenario of Le Pen against Melenchon has been avoided it seems. Macron will win the second round now
If that is the final figure for Le Pen, I am delighted because it would represent a lower figure than her opinion polls for most of this year. In March she was above 26%, and the graph has been downward ever since.
So any "benefit" from Thursday's attack did not materialise.
I am cautiously pleased, as I was after the recent Dutch result, and the Austrian result back in September, as well as fading AfD in Germany.
First off, some proper anorak shit from 538's Harry Enten (the Jew my father wishes I was):
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-french-election-is-way-too-close-to-call/
So if those numbers hold, Le Pen pretty much hit her pre-election numbers of 22%. Prague, as you say, the trend is downward, especially on the heels of a terrorist attack, which is largely good.
What Trump (and he is now the benchmark for the rest of these movements/candidates/parties) did that helped to put him over the top was, in the general election, expand beyond his base and turn out 90%+ of Republicans and Republican leaning Independents. Those will be the large number of people who disapprove/don't like him, but still voted for him (worth noting that more Clinton voters voted FOR her, whereas more Trump voters voted AGAINST Clinton). Many of those people "came home" in the final month or so of the election, which is why the race "broke" so late and so narrowly*.
What I expect will be different here is that Le Pen and these other far right nationalists move just do not have that base to draw from--conservative leaning voters willing to unite behind whoever the conservative is (even if it's far, far further to the right than they're used to). Because it's not a binary political party system, she, and others, need to woo voters from other candidates/parties. And as Harry Enten points out, there really isn't anything to indicate she can do that in anywhere near the numbers she'd need.
These populist, nationalists movement, for as much as we call them "populist," aren't actually THAT popular. They're targeted at a certain section of the population, and in electoral and overall terms, that number isn't really that high. When you think of the term populist, you think of political movements or figures that are transformative and popular, like Hugo Chavez or Fidel Castro (who, for all their faults, had very large public support, and if you say they didn't then they would like to have a word). In modern political parlance, it seems to means "something that is nationalist and applies to anywhere from 25-35%ish, max, of the electorate."
Unless Macron (side note, underrated maker of Charlton kits) has suicided people in the past or has been highly irresponsible with his email accounts, he should be France's next PM.
*I make a lot of statistical claims in there from months of having read analysis of election numbers, I'll try to find a source or two that back that up without having to link to 17 different articles.
v
1. The opinion pollsters. They were very accurate, and in particular were accurately tracking the downward trend of Le Pen since March, when they had her on more than 26%.
2. The French people. 78% is an excellent turnout, not least against the background of an alleged terror threat.
I suspect a ruse, an attempt to portray herself as not as nasty and radical as the leader of the NF .. whatever the result, France is in a political mess
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39696861
It really irritates me how people who voted for Brexit/Trump/Le Pen/Conservative are denounced as stupid/unintelligent types in the media.
All it does it lead to people turning into silent voters, scared that their left wing colleagues/friends will just negatively label them.
We all have opinions and our opinions are equal according to the democracy we live in.
In this case all defeated candidates bar Melenchon are backing Macron.
For sure Le Pen scored over 20% but it should be noted that the four leading candidates appear to have secured exactly what was predicted during last week. That lends validity to polls next week. One can take a look at a map of France to see which candidate led where:
blogs.ft.com/the-world/files/2017/04/G1308_17X-French-election-results-department-WORLD_SOCIAL.png
It has been established that Le Pen has made gains in the north eastern "rust belt" - this has added to the core FN base which is not dissimilar to the map of Vichy France!
Le Pen has called for liberty for the french and for the people to overthrow the ruling elite. Familiar populist, anti-establishment rhetoric. As posted elsewhere, this is unlikely to appeal to voters who backed socialist candidates - they make up 25% of the electorate. She is using the Trump/Farage/Breitbart playbook and her party is propped up by loans from Russian banks.
This is not the result which the Daily Mail and Farage wanted nor predicted. Their problem is that the EU and the Euro is simply not that unpopular in France. It is 10% unemployment along with security issues which is top of the agenda. And Macron has a pro-euro, pro jobs agenda.
Melenchon (independent Socialist) has not yet accepted the "estimate". One couldn't get a cigarette paper between his policy positions and Corbyn / Podemos. And this says alot about where Corbyn is on Brexit.
FTFP appears to work if you have rational centre left and centre right alternatives from which to choose. Whether that is Heath vs Wison or Major vs Kinnock (then Major vs Blair), the electorate had choices based on manifestos that talked to reform not revolution.
But western democracies have an explosion of populism not dissimilar to the intra-war period in the last century. That might suit those who only want to engage via social media but it leaves a huge political risk of extremism.
Talking of political risk, the euro is up two cents on the dollar and the French stock market is at a nine year high! That doesn't mean Macron is sure to win but the nightmare of a Melenchon Le Pen run off has been avoided.
Le Pen has banned skinheads from her rallies and kicked her father out of the NF. And now she leaves the FN. But as they say in Ireland, the apple doesn't fall far from the tree!
For those interested, there is an opportunity to learn about the 5th Republic as its political lanscape transforms. Like most western democracies it has shifted to the right over the last 15-20 years.
And like Westminster, new forrces are emerging very rapidly. Le Pen and the FN have gone up 5% in five years. Macron and En Marche! has gone from 0 to 23% in 12 months.
Just like Trump, Brexit and LePen, Macron is a product of the failure of post crash political economics. But he is the exception because his programme talks of meritocracy and solutions, not populist blame of the elites.
And finally both Le Pen and Macron are very savvy on social media. Macron is not Clinton and he will be very attractive to all shades of opinions - no 30 year track record in the establishment.
What is different about the French system is not just the Presidetial eleection but "round 3" in June when the people elect around 600 to the legislature. At that point we will see whether Macron has revolutionised the system - whether he has a bloc with which he can work to form a government.
Five years ago that was a traditional left vs right set up where the FN had just two representatives - not dissimilar to UKIP!
So while we vote for the MPs to deliver Brexit, the French electorate will decide the make up that dictates whether Macron can deliver his programme of reform, jobs and strenghthening the EU and the Euro. Macron has started a new party from scratch and is seeking to stand head teachers, doctors and entrepreneurs as candidates... a new way to "take back control"!
The irony is that much of white provincial France would do better socially under Le Pen than Macron, not the man who claims to be of them from Amiens. He is pro EU, which of course underwrites huge swathes of provincial France, but few of them are able to accept that.
Macron's the man to cynically rob the liberal ideal for Rostchild and his banking friends. Would I vote for him against Le Pen? Yes. Would I vote for his awful En Marche party? No. His autocratic tendencies will attempt to un-democratically dominate legislation and the legislative bodies. The French bourgeois will only support when it pays them, if he doesn't play to them he'll be one term. Hence it'll all be for them.