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Relegation

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  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,955
    edited January 2020
    People keep saying we'll be okay once players return from injury but no sign of this happening. 

    2 wins since beginning of October - 16 games. Can't see much room for optimism.
    Always room for optimism.
    It'll get you a lot further than fearing the worst.

    Last February with our crap run of results and no strikers, did you ever think we'd win promotion in May?



  • stonemuse
    stonemuse Posts: 33,998
    Oggy Red said:
    People keep saying we'll be okay once players return from injury but no sign of this happening. 

    2 wins since beginning of October - 16 games. Can't see much room for optimism.
    Always room for optimism.
    It'll get you a lot further than fearing the worst.

    Last February with our crap run of results and no strikers, did you ever think we'd win promotion in May?



    I still feel positive ... I don’t expect relegation and expect us to start moving up the table in a few weeks. 
  • shine166
    shine166 Posts: 13,917
    stonemuse said:
    Oggy Red said:
    People keep saying we'll be okay once players return from injury but no sign of this happening. 

    2 wins since beginning of October - 16 games. Can't see much room for optimism.
    Always room for optimism.
    It'll get you a lot further than fearing the worst.

    Last February with our crap run of results and no strikers, did you ever think we'd win promotion in May?



    I still feel positive ... I don’t expect relegation and expect us to start moving up the table in a few weeks. 
    Trouble is there are gaps opening up every few places now. Couple weeks ago you could win a couple games and jump 5 places... just not the case any more. 
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,955
    edited January 2020
    Me too, Stonemuse.
    Well said.

    In Bows we trust. 

  • Oggy Red said:
    People keep saying we'll be okay once players return from injury but no sign of this happening. 

    2 wins since beginning of October - 16 games. Can't see much room for optimism.
    Always room for optimism.
    It'll get you a lot further than fearing the worst.

    Last February with our crap run of results and no strikers, did you ever think we'd win promotion in May?



    Optimism has to be based on something - if players return from injury or we sign some new players then I'll have grounds to be optimistic.

    We've had a terrible run of injuries and are fielding players who are out of their depth or not fully fit. I'm being pretty realistic as far as I can see.

    I hope things do change but relegation is a strong possibility. The Championship is far harder than League 1.
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,625
    shine166 said:
    stonemuse said:
    Oggy Red said:
    People keep saying we'll be okay once players return from injury but no sign of this happening. 

    2 wins since beginning of October - 16 games. Can't see much room for optimism.
    Always room for optimism.
    It'll get you a lot further than fearing the worst.

    Last February with our crap run of results and no strikers, did you ever think we'd win promotion in May?



    I still feel positive ... I don’t expect relegation and expect us to start moving up the table in a few weeks. 
    Trouble is there are gaps opening up every few places now. Couple weeks ago you could win a couple games and jump 5 places... just not the case any more. 
    There is further up the league as Millwall proved today. The problem is that 1 win in 12 games puts a serious dent in any campaign. We would need a run of 2 or 3 wins & a couple of draws just to put us in the mid table pack.

    What we need to worry about is not this month where picking up points look nigh on impossible but February, where we play 4 of the bottom 6 or 7 teams.......mostly at home. Lose those 6-pointers & we really are fucked 
  • shine166
    shine166 Posts: 13,917
    shine166 said:
    stonemuse said:
    Oggy Red said:
    People keep saying we'll be okay once players return from injury but no sign of this happening. 

    2 wins since beginning of October - 16 games. Can't see much room for optimism.
    Always room for optimism.
    It'll get you a lot further than fearing the worst.

    Last February with our crap run of results and no strikers, did you ever think we'd win promotion in May?



    I still feel positive ... I don’t expect relegation and expect us to start moving up the table in a few weeks. 
    Trouble is there are gaps opening up every few places now. Couple weeks ago you could win a couple games and jump 5 places... just not the case any more. 
    There is further up the league as Millwall proved today. The problem is that 1 win in 12 games puts a serious dent in any campaign. We would need a run of 2 or 3 wins & a couple of draws just to put us in the mid table pack.

    What we need to worry about is not this month where picking up points look nigh on impossible but February, where we play 4 of the bottom 6 or 7 teams.......mostly at home. Lose those 6-pointers & we really are fucked 
    6 pointers are not our forte unfortunately! I think Lutons last win was against us and then the loss to Derby. Feb is a huge month though I agree but unfortunately any 'fit' players returning will be run into the ground again unless we get a handful back at once, along side signings that can walk strait into the 1st team. 
  • Sillybilly
    Sillybilly Posts: 9,234
    edited January 2020
    shine166 said:
    stonemuse said:
    Oggy Red said:
    People keep saying we'll be okay once players return from injury but no sign of this happening. 

    2 wins since beginning of October - 16 games. Can't see much room for optimism.
    Always room for optimism.
    It'll get you a lot further than fearing the worst.

    Last February with our crap run of results and no strikers, did you ever think we'd win promotion in May?



    I still feel positive ... I don’t expect relegation and expect us to start moving up the table in a few weeks. 
    Trouble is there are gaps opening up every few places now. Couple weeks ago you could win a couple games and jump 5 places... just not the case any more. 
    There is further up the league as Millwall proved today. The problem is that 1 win in 12 games puts a serious dent in any campaign. We would need a run of 2 or 3 wins & a couple of draws just to put us in the mid table pack.

    What we need to worry about is not this month where picking up points look nigh on impossible but February, where we play 4 of the bottom 6 or 7 teams.......mostly at home. Lose those 6-pointers & we really are fucked 
    This. And the effect on morale of being thumped every game during January on too of our current bad run cannot be underestimated. 
  • shine166 said:
    stonemuse said:
    Oggy Red said:
    People keep saying we'll be okay once players return from injury but no sign of this happening. 

    2 wins since beginning of October - 16 games. Can't see much room for optimism.
    Always room for optimism.
    It'll get you a lot further than fearing the worst.

    Last February with our crap run of results and no strikers, did you ever think we'd win promotion in May?



    I still feel positive ... I don’t expect relegation and expect us to start moving up the table in a few weeks. 
    Trouble is there are gaps opening up every few places now. Couple weeks ago you could win a couple games and jump 5 places... just not the case any more. 
    There is further up the league as Millwall proved today. The problem is that 1 win in 12 games puts a serious dent in any campaign. We would need a run of 2 or 3 wins & a couple of draws just to put us in the mid table pack.

    What we need to worry about is not this month where picking up points look nigh on impossible but February, where we play 4 of the bottom 6 or 7 teams.......mostly at home. Lose those 6-pointers & we really are fucked 
    This. And the effect on morale of being thumped every game during January on too of our current bad run cannot be underestimated. 
    If we don't get some new players or midfielders returning from injury then January could be a nightmare. We lack any creative spark at present.
  • soapy_jones
    soapy_jones Posts: 21,350
    6 pointers unfortunately are not our forte... If anyone on here can see us doing a job on our fellow relegation candidates then we have been watching a different football club for many years!  We are more likely to smash and grab a few points off of any promotion candidates we encounter, when the chips are down, there are only a few exceptions over the years, where we have not bottled it.
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  • Fact,we need to win 6-7 games plus a couple of draws.
  • shine166 said:
    stonemuse said:
    Oggy Red said:
    People keep saying we'll be okay once players return from injury but no sign of this happening. 

    2 wins since beginning of October - 16 games. Can't see much room for optimism.
    Always room for optimism.
    It'll get you a lot further than fearing the worst.

    Last February with our crap run of results and no strikers, did you ever think we'd win promotion in May?



    I still feel positive ... I don’t expect relegation and expect us to start moving up the table in a few weeks. 
    Trouble is there are gaps opening up every few places now. Couple weeks ago you could win a couple games and jump 5 places... just not the case any more. 
    There is further up the league as Millwall proved today. The problem is that 1 win in 12 games puts a serious dent in any campaign. We would need a run of 2 or 3 wins & a couple of draws just to put us in the mid table pack.

    What we need to worry about is not this month where picking up points look nigh on impossible but February, where we play 4 of the bottom 6 or 7 teams.......mostly at home. Lose those 6-pointers & we really are fucked 
    Agreed.

    The important games to win are against the teams around you.
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    Suddenly we need to start picking up points again to distance ourselves from Stoke & Wigan.
  • bolloxbolder
    bolloxbolder Posts: 7,960
    Suddenly. Jeez people slowly waking up and smelling coffee 2 months too late.
  • The writing is on the wall , something dramatic has to happen (as in decent new signings and keeping Lyle Taylor) to kickstart our season again , sitting here crossing our fingers  for players to get fit and saying be optimistic isn’t working !! 
  • In the freefall we are in, teams rarely arrest the slide dramatically.

    It's going to be a long 5 months, but a successful season if we stay up.
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,625
    shine166 said:
    stonemuse said:
    Oggy Red said:
    People keep saying we'll be okay once players return from injury but no sign of this happening. 

    2 wins since beginning of October - 16 games. Can't see much room for optimism.
    Always room for optimism.
    It'll get you a lot further than fearing the worst.

    Last February with our crap run of results and no strikers, did you ever think we'd win promotion in May?



    I still feel positive ... I don’t expect relegation and expect us to start moving up the table in a few weeks. 
    Trouble is there are gaps opening up every few places now. Couple weeks ago you could win a couple games and jump 5 places... just not the case any more. 
    There is further up the league as Millwall proved today. The problem is that 1 win in 12 games puts a serious dent in any campaign. We would need a run of 2 or 3 wins & a couple of draws just to put us in the mid table pack.

    What we need to worry about is not this month where picking up points look nigh on impossible but February, where we play 4 of the bottom 6 or 7 teams.......mostly at home. Lose those 6-pointers & we really are fucked 
    Agreed.

    The important games to win are against the teams around you.
    Its funny because although I said this in the  above post & generally agree with the sentiment, my mind always goes back to the season we got relegated from the Premier League. We played West Ham at  home in February and smashed them 4-0......but they stayed up by beating Man U in the last game of the season relegating Sheff U in the process. Ok they had Tevez & should have been docked points......but the fact we beat them in a 6 pointer but they went on to beat Man U shows that it is more down to picking up points and not who against. Defeats my own argument I know. 😁
  • shine166 said:
    stonemuse said:
    Oggy Red said:
    People keep saying we'll be okay once players return from injury but no sign of this happening. 

    2 wins since beginning of October - 16 games. Can't see much room for optimism.
    Always room for optimism.
    It'll get you a lot further than fearing the worst.

    Last February with our crap run of results and no strikers, did you ever think we'd win promotion in May?



    I still feel positive ... I don’t expect relegation and expect us to start moving up the table in a few weeks. 
    Trouble is there are gaps opening up every few places now. Couple weeks ago you could win a couple games and jump 5 places... just not the case any more. 
    There is further up the league as Millwall proved today. The problem is that 1 win in 12 games puts a serious dent in any campaign. We would need a run of 2 or 3 wins & a couple of draws just to put us in the mid table pack.

    What we need to worry about is not this month where picking up points look nigh on impossible but February, where we play 4 of the bottom 6 or 7 teams.......mostly at home. Lose those 6-pointers & we really are fucked 
    Agreed.

    The important games to win are against the teams around you.
    Its funny because although I said this in the  above post & generally agree with the sentiment, my mind always goes back to the season we got relegated from the Premier League. We played West Ham at  home in February and smashed them 4-0......but they stayed up by beating Man U in the last game of the season relegating Sheff U in the process. Ok they had Tevez & should have been docked points......but the fact we beat them in a 6 pointer but they went on to beat Man U shows that it is more down to picking up points and not who against. Defeats my own argument I know. 😁
    LThen if we had lost to West Ham the final game could have been academic.

    I'm more than happy we have Wigan in our penultimate game, although so keen on the last one!
  • I think LB and JJ are doing the best they can with the resources available and we are managing to compete but there has been no sign of an upturn.

    Most of our key players are injured and if anything our injury list just seems to get worse.

    When will our luck change?
  • You could argue that our luck changed last night a bit

    For weeks we've been letting in defensive errors with Swansea being gifted three of them in the 1st Half

    Ball didnt go in though - Complete difference to what we've seen since Sheffield Wednesday
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  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,955
    In the freefall we are in, teams rarely arrest the slide dramatically.

    It's going to be a long 5 months, but a successful season if we stay up.
    Often, teams are in freefall because the manager has lost the dressing room.
    That's not the case at Charlton.

    The team spirit is still high, the team is competing, it's not getting battered.
    All that's really lacking is so many key players missing through injury - and their replacements also injured. And their replacements, raw inexperienced kids - 6 of them played yesterday, including 5 at the same time.

    No other club this season has had to deal with an injury situation like it.
    And if they did, they would be in freefall also.

    It might well be a long 5 months, but first let's see what January brings?





  • You could argue that our luck changed last night a bit

    For weeks we've been letting in defensive errors with Swansea being gifted three of them in the 1st Half

    Ball didnt go in though - Complete difference to what we've seen since Sheffield Wednesday
    Going down to endless narrow defeats means our GD isn't bad but not helping our points total. It would have been much better to be tonked in a couple of these narrow defeats BUT also have a game where we somehow fluke a win

    In a way our goals aren't being well "distributed" when compared to some of the other struggling teams. It's frustrating that other than Brizzle, when we score 2 goals we also let in 2, but then when we let in just 1, we don't score. That consolation penalty at Derby in a game where we deserved nothing would have given us a point last night for example or even better taken 2 points from Huddersfield or Boro in those 6 pointer matches.
  • Elthamaddick
    Elthamaddick Posts: 15,810
    love @Oggy Red 's positive thinking....keep posting mate !

  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,955
    Cheers, @Elthamaddick

    We've got to stay positive, it gives you belief that you can do it.
    And we will. Ask Lee Bowyer!





  • I feel very positive having LB as manager but there's obviously a limit to what he can do with the resources at his disposal. The injury crisis this season is pretty amazing and I don't imagine anyone saw it coming.

    Our luck has to change.
  • Stig
    Stig Posts: 29,022
    Here are the last teams to get relegated in each of the last five seasons:

    Rotherham 201940-31
    Barnsley 201841-24
    Blackburn 201751-12
    Charlton 201640-40
    Millwall 201541-34

    With the exception of 2017 which looks to have been a pretty freak season, 42 points would have been enough to stay up each time. If we take that as a target, that means we need 14 points to stay up. If we can get just four points a month for the next four months we can do that with two to spare. We did it in December, we can do it in the other months!

    Now, I can almost hear people shouting, but we didn't do it in November and we've not got off to a good start in January, but here are some things to be positive about:

    • We've got brand new owners who have just shelled out a fortune on our club. I don't believe they've done that just to watch us get relegated.  I've got faith that they'll invest in the squad. We might not have a squad full of Neymars or De Bruynes that some people were fancifully saying last month, but I'm sure that Bows will have a meaningful war chest to help keep the ship afloat.
    • Bows is a great manager, he'll get the best out of the players.
    • The youngsters have shown terrific spirit, with a couple of more experienced players in there it'll look really positive.
    • The injuries won't last forever. With Williams and Cullen back in the side we'll be looking good again.
    • If you pick up a couple of wins at this end of the table you can go up a few places.
    It's not going to be a comfortable ride and we can't rule out that the worst could happen, but however bad things look at the moment, tell me they don't look worse from a Luton, Barnsley, Wigan perspective.
     
  • LenGlover
    LenGlover Posts: 31,651
    Stig said:
    Here are the last teams to get relegated in each of the last five seasons:

    Rotherham 201940-31
    Barnsley 201841-24
    Blackburn 201751-12
    Charlton 201640-40
    Millwall 201541-34

    With the exception of 2017 which looks to have been a pretty freak season, 42 points would have been enough to stay up each time. If we take that as a target, that means we need 14 points to stay up. If we can get just four points a month for the next four months we can do that with two to spare. We did it in December, we can do it in the other months!

    Now, I can almost hear people shouting, but we didn't do it in November and we've not got off to a good start in January, but here are some things to be positive about:

    • We've got brand new owners who have just shelled out a fortune on our club. I don't believe they've done that just to watch us get relegated.  I've got faith that they'll invest in the squad. We might not have a squad full of Neymars or De Bruynes that some people were fancifully saying last month, but I'm sure that Bows will have a meaningful war chest to help keep the ship afloat.
    • Bows is a great manager, he'll get the best out of the players.
    • The youngsters have shown terrific spirit, with a couple of more experienced players in there it'll look really positive.
    • The injuries won't last forever. With Williams and Cullen back in the side we'll be looking good again.
    • If you pick up a couple of wins at this end of the table you can go up a few places.
    It's not going to be a comfortable ride and we can't rule out that the worst could happen, but however bad things look at the moment, tell me they don't look worse from a Luton, Barnsley, Wigan perspective.
     
    All of whom have to visit The Valley.

    Win those 3 and we take a  big step in the right direction.
  • shine166
    shine166 Posts: 13,917
    In the freefall we are in, teams rarely arrest the slide dramatically.

    It's going to be a long 5 months, but a successful season if we stay up.
    Only difference is its usually teams first 11 in place when the slide happens. 
  • Stig said:
    It's not going to be a comfortable ride and we can't rule out that the worst could happen, but however bad things look at the moment, tell me they don't look worse from a Luton, Barnsley, Wigan perspective.
     
    I would say that Luton are favourites to go down. The Director notes in the programme when we played them made it very clear that they wouldn't be splashing the cash to stay up, and that their new stadium and longer term projects are their priority

    Barnsley and Wigan on the other hand are playing much better than us at the moment, I certainly think that both have a chance of survival, depending on injuries and the January window. 
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    Suddenly. Jeez people slowly waking up and smelling coffee 2 months too late.
    Yes suddenly because they've only just started to close that gap, therefore to stay 7 points away from them we need to get some points on the board again. Admittedly this is simply because I quite liked the 7 point gap.

    So long as we stay at least 1 point ahead of 3 other sides, come the end of the season, despite how stressful it may feel...  I really couldn't care less as we'll have survived.