In most leagues in Europe and in the case of the Championship and the Premier League, three teams get relegated.
Of the teams relegated, usually there are different types of reasons as to why they go down.
The First One- Bottom of the league, never put in a serious challenge to stay up as can never put a good run together and are usually pretty much down around February.
The Second One- Second from bottom, can often swing between being a bit unlucky or not quite good enough.
The Third One- Third from Bottom, take it down to the last game or so and will often go down by the thinnest of margins such as a point or goal difference. Often play well in games for 70% of the season, but don't pick up enough wins even when playing well.
Sadly, we could be the third one. As we have been playing well at times in this bad run but not winning games. Personally I think we will stay up as I think we will strengthen properly this month, but by how much we stay up I'm not sure.
I've been getting twitchy this last month or two as
a) our injury crisis has coincided with a run of "6 pointers" which we've done badly in, rather than games where you'd "accept" a defeat. b) the teams below us has started improving. Boro have flown past us, while Reading, Barnsley, Huddersfield and Stoke have all improved under new managers. c) our players take an ETERNITY to return from injury. And the get injured again.
The only positive atm is that we are only losing by the odd goal. Our GD i miles better than any of the bottom 6 or 7 clubs. A point last night would have moved us above Birmingham purely on GD. We nicked 3rd last season purely on GD (different situation then as it was more to do with goals scored than goals conceeded).
However.
We are losing games. Not winning or drawing but losing them. We are dropping like a stone because we cant get even build a small platform of a couple of draws & a win. Its only because we beat Bristol City on Boxing day that there is some light between us & the bottom 3. 1 win in 13 & only a couple of draws in there as well. The rot has got to stop NOW. Do something to grind out a couple of draws (esp as we have tough games this month) and then head into February with some confidence as we then have a month of 6 pointers. If we dont we will go down as we wont win the big games against the bottom 3.
The Third One- Third from Bottom, take it down to the last game or so and will often go down by the thinnest of margins such as a point or goal difference. Often play well in games for 70% of the season, but don't pick up enough wins even when playing well.
Often the team, sometimes there are 2 or 3, which after a reasonable first half of season goes into freefall caused by their internal politics, players demotivated/unrest, manager losing dressing room, etc.
Sure it can also be caused by losing a key player or 2 ...... and of course, people will say, "Hey, that's us". But generally, it's a team not playing as a team that is at the heart of the problem. And that's not us.
Interesting post though. But looking at statistics and perhaps averages, rather than specifics. We have to look at the context and reasons behind the stats to understand fully ..... and each club/situation will be different and not really a reliable guide to how the rest of Charlton's season will unfold.
14 points from the last 20 games and people really think the warning signs weren't there 2 months ago?
2 months ago was a week after we hammered Derby, if back then you thought we were up for a relegation battle then I'm not sure what to say. Our points per game ratio at that stage was more than good enough to keep us up this season.
One reason we are in relegation battle and likely to go down is that the team need a completely new defence, and you can not get 4-6 top quality defenders in the january transfer window. if we had a defence that could defend a one goal leed then we would be in a better place than being relegated.
The Third One- Third from Bottom, take it down to the last game or so and will often go down by the thinnest of margins such as a point or goal difference. Often play well in games for 70% of the season, but don't pick up enough wins even when playing well.
Often the team, sometimes there are 2 or 3, which after a reasonable first half of season goes into freefall caused by their internal politics, players demotivated/unrest, manager losing dressing room, etc.
Sure it can also be caused by losing a key player or 2 ...... and of course, people will say, "Hey, that's us". But generally, it's a team not playing as a team that is at the heart of the problem. And that's not us.
Interesting post though. But looking at statistics and perhaps averages, rather than specifics. We have to look at the context and reasons behind the stats to understand fully ..... and each club/situation will be different and not really a reliable guide to how the rest of Charlton's season will unfold.
Teams often start well after promotion, fueled by the positive atmosphere around the club AND because they are a surprise package. Sheffield United typify this, but what's impressive is that they've kept it going for so long with a team of Championship players really.
I never thought that we would keep up our good start to the season, once teams got to "work us out" more BUT it's the injuries that have derailed us.
There's a clear bottom pack - and we are part of it. I'm confident we'll strengthen and pull away once we get players back. I think the normal relegations from the Champ aren't as @UEAAddick says, but usually: 1. Whoever has one of the lowest budgets 2. A team that has come down from the Prem in the last couple of years and are in a mess 3. Another team with a low budget or sometimes... 4. A long-standing Champ team who have run out of steam
In the last few seasons it's been: 2018/19: Rotherham (3), Bolton (1) and Ipswich (4) 2017/18: Barnsley (3), Burton (1), Sunderland (2) 2016/17: Blackburn (2), Wigan (3), Rotherham (1) 2015/16: us (3), MK Dons (1), Bolton (2) 2014/15: Spanners (1), Wigan(2), Blackpool (4 with a bit of 2) 2013/14: Donny (3), Barnsley (3), Yeovil (1) 2012/13: Posh (1), Wolves (2), Bristol City (4) 2011/12: Pompey (2), Donny (1), Coventry (4) 2010/11: Preston (4), Sheffield United (2), Scunthorpe (1) 2009/10: Wednesday (2), Argyle (3), Posh (1) Only two seasons in the last decade (2018/19 and 2013/14) has there not been a team that was in the Prem in the last couple of years relegated from the Championship. I think one of Stoke or Huddersfield will go. I'd be a bit concerned if I was a Birmingham or Reading fan too. I don't think our run in will be pretty, but we've been competitive in most games with the majority of our squad out. In Bowyer and Gallen I trust
One reason we are in relegation battle and likely to go down is that the team need a completely new defence, and you can not get 4-6 top quality defenders in the january transfer window. if we had a defence that could defend a one goal leed then we would be in a better place than being relegated.
We don't need a completely new defence, but we do have major defensive issues as a team. No clean sheet since Derby, the 19th October, that's awful
The Third One- Third from Bottom, take it down to the last game or so and will often go down by the thinnest of margins such as a point or goal difference. Often play well in games for 70% of the season, but don't pick up enough wins even when playing well.
Often the team, sometimes there are 2 or 3, which after a reasonable first half of season goes into freefall caused by their internal politics, players demotivated/unrest, manager losing dressing room, etc.
Sure it can also be caused by losing a key player or 2 ...... and of course, people will say, "Hey, that's us". But generally, it's a team not playing as a team that is at the heart of the problem. And that's not us.
Interesting post though. But looking at statistics and perhaps averages, rather than specifics. We have to look at the context and reasons behind the stats to understand fully ..... and each club/situation will be different and not really a reliable guide to how the rest of Charlton's season will unfold.
Fully agree and I would say it was posted as more of a general outlook of what I've seen since watching football, without looking necessarily into the stats and specifics of different clubs.
You could also say when looking at our last relegation in 2016, in which we finished 22nd, we looked like we were going down from February onwards, even though I said at the time it was when Fraeye was appointed.
Our relegations in 2009 and 2007 would probably support my theory more.
One reason we are in relegation battle and likely to go down is that the team need a completely new defence, and you can not get 4-6 top quality defenders in the january transfer window. if we had a defence that could defend a one goal leed then we would be in a better place than being relegated.
I don't agree - our defence may not be world-beaters, but they're fine if they have a midfield that's not over-run. We are using our 7th, 8th, 9th choice midfielders. We've also missed Lyle holding the ball up top. We play as a team: yes our defence make mistakes (that's why they're with us not in the Prem) but it's midfield and now upfront where we are desperate to get bodies
One reason we are in relegation battle and likely to go down is that the team need a completely new defence, and you can not get 4-6 top quality defenders in the january transfer window. if we had a defence that could defend a one goal leed then we would be in a better place than being relegated.
We don't need a completely new defence, although I concede we could do with a dominating 1st ball CB.
Our current defensive vulnerability is because we play 3 raw youngsters marshalled best as he can by the overplayed veteran Pratley, desperate himself for some respite.
The team that can defend a one goal lead defends from the top, it has experience and tenacity in midfield - and the backline gets the protection needed. That's simply not available with the present injury stricken line up and consequently the defence is frequently left exposed.
If we had to play our remaining 20 games with only the players that finished the Swansea match last night, I might also be worried about relegation. But that's not going to happen is it?
It's not going to be a comfortable ride and we can't rule out that the worst could happen, but however bad things look at the moment, tell me they don't look worse from a Luton, Barnsley, Wigan perspective.
I would say that Luton are favourites to go down. The Director notes in the programme when we played them made it very clear that they wouldn't be splashing the cash to stay up, and that their new stadium and longer term projects are their priority
Barnsley and Wigan on the other hand are playing much better than us at the moment, I certainly think that both have a chance of survival, depending on injuries and the January window.
Not sure about Barnsley. But Wigan won first game since October the other day, so must be a similar points tally to us.
Not a lot wrong with our defence......the back 6 of Solly, Matthews, Pearce, Lockyer, Sarr & Purrington have been the mainstays of the campaign so far & at the start were doing pretty well.
What hasn't helped is that since Williams, Cullen & Taylor have been injured the midfield & attack hasnt been strong enough to be able to keep the ball up the pitch long enough. In recent games our midfield gets over run & therefore putting a lot of pressure on the defence. The fact we haven't been shipping in goals left, right & centre shows its not a defensive problem.
Get the aforementioned players back, as well as 3 or 4 additions then we may find that we are starting to score a few more & thus putting pressure on the other team.....and not vice versa.
If we’d been winning whilst not playing well people would say that’s the sign of a good team We’ve been losing whilst playing (allegedly) well is that the sign of a shit team
There's a clear bottom pack - and we are part of it. I'm confident we'll strengthen and pull away once we get players back. I think the normal relegations from the Champ aren't as @UEAAddick says, but usually: 1. Whoever has one of the lowest budgets 2. A team that has come down from the Prem in the last couple of years and are in a mess 3. Another team with a low budget or sometimes... 4. A long-standing Champ team who have run out of steam
In the last few seasons it's been: 2018/19: Rotherham (3), Bolton (1) and Ipswich (4) 2017/18: Barnsley (3), Burton (1), Sunderland (2) 2016/17: Blackburn (2), Wigan (3), Rotherham (1) 2015/16: us (3), MK Dons (1), Bolton (2) 2014/15: Spanners (1), Wigan(2), Blackpool (4 with a bit of 2) 2013/14: Donny (3), Barnsley (3), Yeovil (1) 2012/13: Posh (1), Wolves (2), Bristol City (4) 2011/12: Pompey (2), Donny (1), Coventry (4) 2010/11: Preston (4), Sheffield United (2), Scunthorpe (1) 2009/10: Wednesday (2), Argyle (3), Posh (1) Only two seasons in the last decade (2018/19 and 2013/14) has there not been a team that was in the Prem in the last couple of years relegated from the Championship. I think one of Stoke or Huddersfield will go. I'd be a bit concerned if I was a Birmingham or Reading fan too. I don't think our run in will be pretty, but we've been competitive in most games with the majority of our squad out. In Bowyer and Gallen I trust
Stoke have improved under their new manager and have taken 10 points from their last 5 games.
Huddersfield have also picked up a bit, 10 points from their last 6 games, including beating us although they did get hammed by Stoke the other day.
I think we'll see two of the promoted League One teams go down and Wigan
During the SKY Rooney-Wankfest on Thursday they briefly spoke with the Barnsley Manager and commented on their run of games which involved Huddersfield and Charlton
They then went on to discuss about how Barnsley have such a poor record against teams down the bottom and seriously need to improve on that
If we’d been winning whilst not playing well people would say that’s the sign of a good team We’ve been losing whilst playing (allegedly) well is that the sign of a shit team
We've played okay given the teams we've had to put out - can't realistically do much better with such a weak team. Our existing team won't keep us up - have to hope key players return from injury and new signings deliver.
If we’d been winning whilst not playing well people would say that’s the sign of a good team We’ve been losing whilst playing (allegedly) well is that the sign of a shit team
No. Weve been losing because we can barely put a team out oohaah
Yeah our current team of the last 14 games has managed 7 points 1 win 4 draws and 9 defeats no clean sheets
we are on a horrendous run and of course the injury crisis has killed us but we won’t get given any points by pleading we’re hard done by , something drastic has to happen and quickly and by that it’s proper decent transfers in cos sitting here saying we’ll be ok when so and so comes back fully fit is living in hope
Thankfully first 12 games 21 points 6 wins 3 draws 3 defeats 4 clean sheets
Yeah our current team of the last 14 games has managed 7 points 1 win 4 draws and 9 defeats no clean sheets
we are on a horrendous run and of course the injury crisis has killed us but we won’t get given any points by pleading we’re hard done by , something drastic has to happen and quickly and by that it’s proper decent transfers in cos sitting here saying we’ll be ok when so and so comes back fully fit is living in hope
Thankfully first 12 games 21 points 6 wins 3 draws 3 defeats 4 clean sheets
In Lord Bowyer we trust
This is it though oohaah. Since Luton away I've not been expecting any points with the team weve had to put out. We should know in the next couple of weeks what's going to happen. I'm expecting us to sign 4 players, I cant believe the owners have spent tens of millions and are going to take a chance on a couple of signings keeping us up.
Comments
Of the teams relegated, usually there are different types of reasons as to why they go down.
The First One- Bottom of the league, never put in a serious challenge to stay up as can never put a good run together and are usually pretty much down around February.
The Second One- Second from bottom, can often swing between being a bit unlucky or not quite good enough.
The Third One- Third from Bottom, take it down to the last game or so and will often go down by the thinnest of margins such as a point or goal difference. Often play well in games for 70% of the season, but don't pick up enough wins even when playing well.
Sadly, we could be the third one. As we have been playing well at times in this bad run but not winning games. Personally I think we will stay up as I think we will strengthen properly this month, but by how much we stay up I'm not sure.
a) our injury crisis has coincided with a run of "6 pointers" which we've done badly in, rather than games where you'd "accept" a defeat.
b) the teams below us has started improving. Boro have flown past us, while Reading, Barnsley, Huddersfield and Stoke have all improved under new managers.
c) our players take an ETERNITY to return from injury. And the get injured again.
However.
We are losing games. Not winning or drawing but losing them. We are dropping like a stone because we cant get even build a small platform of a couple of draws & a win. Its only because we beat Bristol City on Boxing day that there is some light between us & the bottom 3. 1 win in 13 & only a couple of draws in there as well. The rot has got to stop NOW. Do something to grind out a couple of draws (esp as we have tough games this month) and then head into February with some confidence as we then have a month of 6 pointers. If we dont we will go down as we wont win the big games against the bottom 3.
Sure it can also be caused by losing a key player or 2 ...... and of course, people will say, "Hey, that's us". But generally, it's a team not playing as a team that is at the heart of the problem. And that's not us.
Interesting post though. But looking at statistics and perhaps averages, rather than specifics. We have to look at the context and reasons behind the stats to understand fully ..... and each club/situation will be different and not really a reliable guide to how the rest of Charlton's season will unfold.
I never thought that we would keep up our good start to the season, once teams got to "work us out" more BUT it's the injuries that have derailed us.
1. Whoever has one of the lowest budgets
2. A team that has come down from the Prem in the last couple of years and are in a mess
3. Another team with a low budget or sometimes...
4. A long-standing Champ team who have run out of steam
In the last few seasons it's been:
2018/19: Rotherham (3), Bolton (1) and Ipswich (4)
2017/18: Barnsley (3), Burton (1), Sunderland (2)
2016/17: Blackburn (2), Wigan (3), Rotherham (1)
2015/16: us (3), MK Dons (1), Bolton (2)
2014/15: Spanners (1), Wigan(2), Blackpool (4 with a bit of 2)
2013/14: Donny (3), Barnsley (3), Yeovil (1)
2012/13: Posh (1), Wolves (2), Bristol City (4)
2011/12: Pompey (2), Donny (1), Coventry (4)
2010/11: Preston (4), Sheffield United (2), Scunthorpe (1)
2009/10: Wednesday (2), Argyle (3), Posh (1)
Only two seasons in the last decade (2018/19 and 2013/14) has there not been a team that was in the Prem in the last couple of years relegated from the Championship. I think one of Stoke or Huddersfield will go. I'd be a bit concerned if I was a Birmingham or Reading fan too. I don't think our run in will be pretty, but we've been competitive in most games with the majority of our squad out.
In Bowyer and Gallen I trust
You could also say when looking at our last relegation in 2016, in which we finished 22nd, we looked like we were going down from February onwards, even though I said at the time it was when Fraeye was appointed.
Our relegations in 2009 and 2007 would probably support my theory more.
Our current defensive vulnerability is because we play 3 raw youngsters marshalled best as he can by the overplayed veteran Pratley, desperate himself for some respite.
The team that can defend a one goal lead defends from the top, it has experience and tenacity in midfield - and the backline gets the protection needed. That's simply not available with the present injury stricken line up and consequently the defence is frequently left exposed.
If we had to play our remaining 20 games with only the players that finished the Swansea match last night, I might also be worried about relegation. But that's not going to happen is it?
What hasn't helped is that since Williams, Cullen & Taylor have been injured the midfield & attack hasnt been strong enough to be able to keep the ball up the pitch long enough. In recent games our midfield gets over run & therefore putting a lot of pressure on the defence. The fact we haven't been shipping in goals left, right & centre shows its not a defensive problem.
Get the aforementioned players back, as well as 3 or 4 additions then we may find that we are starting to score a few more & thus putting pressure on the other team.....and not vice versa.
We’ve been losing whilst playing (allegedly) well is that the sign of a shit team
Huddersfield have also picked up a bit, 10 points from their last 6 games, including beating us although they did get hammed by Stoke the other day.
During the SKY Rooney-Wankfest on Thursday they briefly spoke with the Barnsley Manager and commented on their run of games which involved Huddersfield and Charlton
They then went on to discuss about how Barnsley have such a poor record against teams down the bottom and seriously need to improve on that
Stoke I expect to finish above us
Would be v frustrating to go down.
Weve been losing because we can barely put a team out oohaah
1 win 4 draws and 9 defeats
no clean sheets
we are on a horrendous run and of course the injury crisis has killed us but we won’t get given any points by pleading we’re hard done by , something drastic has to happen and quickly and by that it’s proper decent transfers in cos sitting here saying we’ll be ok when so and so comes back fully fit is living in hope
Thankfully first 12 games 21 points
6 wins 3 draws 3 defeats
4 clean sheets
In Lord Bowyer we trust
Since Luton away I've not been expecting any points with the team weve had to put out.
We should know in the next couple of weeks what's going to happen.
I'm expecting us to sign 4 players, I cant believe the owners have spent tens of millions and are going to take a chance on a couple of signings keeping us up.