First, I think the club have done a sterling job in reinforcing the squad. Given the League One salary cap and our lateness into it, we can have no complaints.
However, when I look at our striking options I struggle to see who will get the goals we need this season if we are to seriously challenge for promotion.
Anneke, Bogle, Washington and Smyth are at their peak, aged between 23 and 28. All have league experience at a number of clubs but over the last four seasons, none have scored more than a total of 20 goals. In the circumstances, it might he asking a lot to expect two of them to get into double figures and even then, 15 or more would look like a big ask for any of them.
So, who's going to be our top scorer and how many?
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Goals do look the potential issue but if we could share them around the team we may get there and we seem to have more threat from midfield than we did last year.
It's what Coventry did last season with Godden getting 14 goals and their next top scorer only had 5 - they only scored 46 goals in 34 games and were still Champions.
Say it all the time but to get out of this Division you need to get yourself a good defence, achieve that and you'll win games as you will get chances at this level
Our main problem is that we are just not attack minded enough. No one really wants to have a shot & all like to pass to someone else when in & around the box (even Aneke, who played in Pratley on Saturday instead of having a shot). We do not have a poacher or natural finisher. Does my head in that our academy can produce defender after defender (Jenkinson, Gomez, Konsa) but not a decent striker in years (Defoe......but he never played for the first team). I remember Liverpool fans wondering what would happen once Ian Rush retired, but he was replaced by Robbie Fowler & then he was replaced by Michael Owen !!)
I have said this so many times I sound like a broken record - until you get a 20 goal a season striker you ain't getting out of this league - unless you have 3 or 4 other players chipping in with 12-15 goals each, which is rare & not happening with our team or set up. And to counter some previous posters, both Wycombe & Coventry only played 34 games last season.
In all our previous promotions going back to 1998, our leading goalscorer had scored 20 goals. (Mendonca, Hunt, BWP, Taylor)
The answer to the question in this post is Who Knows? Bogle has done it in league 2, Smyth is from a championship club, Aneke and Doughty are unknown quantities at this level. Madison is proven and will chip in with 4-5 goals and more assists.
I feel positive about our chances of play offs again (bowyer just seems to know how to get us there) with a slim chance of autos.
All I know is that In My Experience WE always need a player to get 20+ goals a season. I've highlighted the 4 most recent promotions I've experienced. Can't remember back to 1985 - Pearson got a few but not 20 I think. Melrose chipped in with a few too, but he only played from March (?) onwards.
In 2009/10 we finished 4th with 71 goals
In 2011/12 we won L1 with 82 goals, the 3rd best - Sheffield United scored 92 in coming 3rd
In 2017/18 we finished 6th with 58 goals, Wigan winning with 89
In 2018/19 we finished 3rd with 73 goals, but were still the lowest scoring of the top 6 - Luton scored 90 that season in winning the title
I'm pretty happy we have some players to choose from, they need to get at least 5 each. Whilst I mainly thought centre forwards just whinged all the time when I was playing it wasn't until I had a season up front that you realise the pressure you are under and the abominable service you get. Spend a game chasing lost causes and having about 5 touches of the ball can wear even the most confident centre forward down its a high turnover position too. Have 3 or 4 games without a goal and people will expect to see you dropped
Midfielders can play all season as number 8s or wingers and are not really under the same pressure to score. Bowyer has called out Williams and rightly so, hes got high standards and Williams plays very advanced, sees a lot of the ball in those areas so you must see a return wither in final balls or hitting the target
I'd back Washington to get at least 5, same for Aneke, Bogle, Maddison and Shinnie there's your 25 goals Doughty I think will be our most prolific player personally once the reigns are taken off him and he's got space ahead to run into
We have some players in Forster Caskey, Morgan, Watson and Maddison who can deliver a dead ball well and players who are going to be horrible to defend against attacking said dead balls. Innis, Prattley, Watson, Famewo there's another 7 at least
Top scorer = 14 therefore expected to score 19 in a full season
2nd top scorer = 5 therefore expected to score 7 in a full season
That leaves 39 goals to be scored by approximately 18 other outfield players which equates to an average of just over 2 goals each per game
Wycombe scored 45 in 34 so that equates to 1.33 goals per game or 60 goals for a 46 match season
Top scorer = 10 therefore expected to score 14 in a full season
2nd top scorer = 9 therefore expected to score 12 in a full season
That leaves 34 goals to be scored by approximately 18 other outfield players which equates to an average of less than 2 goals each per game
In 2017-18 we scored just 58 goals and our top scorer was Josh Magennis and he managed 10 - but we still made the play offs
So, as good as it would be to have a 20 goal a season striker, it isn't absolutely necessary to go up. LB isn't an adventurous manager but will set up the team to play to their strengths which is why I suggested that we will probably have a lot of 1-0, 1-1. 2-1 and possibly 2-0 results.
Joe Aribo got 9 in 2018/19, Jacko 12 in 2011/12, Hollands 7 in that season, it's crucial that midfielders score heavily as well, Maddison being the main hope
"We need a 20 goal a season striker", comes the cry.
Then we get one.
"We need another 20 goal a season striker to help share the load", comes the cry ...... ad nauseum.
https://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/comment/4075624/#Comment_4075624
Promoted teams top scorers:
19/20:
Coventry - Matt Godden (14 - 18 or 19 in a full season)
Rotherham - Freddie Ladapo (14 - 18 or 19 in a full season)
Wycombe - Adebayo Akinfenwa (10 - 13 or 14 in a full season)
18/19:
Luton - James Collins (25)
Barnsley - Kieffer Moore (17)
Charlton - Lyle Taylor (21)
17/18:
Wigan - Will Grigg (19)
Blackburn - Bradley Dack (18)
Rotherham - Kieffer Moore (13)
Only two of the last nine clubs promoted from this division have had a 20+ goal man in their squad.
https://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/comment/4075632/#Comment_4075632
After seeing some post that we won't get promoted or even top 6 as we haven't signed a proven 20+ goalscorer, thought I'd take a look at the last few League 1 seasons to see how many players have scored 20 or more, and where that club finished.
19/20 (season wasn't completed)
Toney - Peterborough finished 7th
18/19
Collins - Luton finished 1st
Eaves - Gillingham finished 13th
Marquis - Doncaster finished 6th
Taylor - We finished 3rd
Henderson - Rochdale finished 16th
17/18
Marriott - Peterborough finished 9th
Pitman - Portsmouth finished 8th
16/17
Sharp - Sheff Utd finished 1st
Vaughan - Bury finished 19th
15/16
Ajose - Swindon finished 16th
Grigg - Wigan finished 1st
Sharp - Sheff Utd finished 11th
Winnall - Barnsley finished 6th
Armstrong - Coventry finished 8th
Madden - Scunthorpe finished 7th