1-0 victories don't get you up. It is the 2-0 ones that do. On a bad day the 2-0 becomes a 1-0 or 1-1. That is what you are looking at.
I've read this back a few times and i don't understand this at all?
I wonder if perhaps Muttley means that if you're regularly winning by more than one goal you have a bit more leeway and can still win on a bad day. Of course that's just a guess, the truth is that, with no mechanism to deduct goals, 2-0 can never become 1-0 or 1-1 or any other binary scoreline. So no, it doesn't make sense.
Perhaps, what was meant is that a 1-0 lead always leaves you vulnerable to a stroke of misfortune or something you can't defend, like a fluke deflection, wonder goal or inexplicable refereeing decision?
Of course, a 2-0 cushion means you are not so much at the mercy of the gods. But there are plenty of 1-0 wins typically in the course of a season for every promotion winning side.
Remember, most promotion sides are built first on the principle of solid defence and clean sheets. Then you 'need' only 1 goal to win.
Washington 5 goals from 9 starts and 2 substitutions Anneke 4 goals from 2 start and 7 substitutions Smyth 1 goal from 2 starts and 2 substitutions Bogle 1 goals from 6 starts and 2 substitutions
All the strikers off the mark now. Morgan's opener means most of the midfielders have a goal apiece too.
It doesn't take a genius to work out that our game plan is to keep a clean sheet and to build on that especially as we are not good at coming from behind - one point from the four games in which this has happened.
Gunter and Pratley are makeshift CBs and despite yesterday's result we will be stronger once we are able to field Famewo and Inniss together again (four clean sheets and four wins) or with at least one of them back. All we need then is for one of our 11 goal scorers this season to nick a goal.
There is also an irony in not having one or two prolific strikers - an injury can be devastating and it's also easier for the opposition to work out where a goal threat will come from. Look at Spurs - 16 of their 21 PL goals and 13 assists have come from Kane and Son. How Spurs would struggle if those two were injured.
Our success so far this season has certainly been built on defence. Not sure I buy an argument that it might be advantageous not to have a goal-scoring striker or front pair because they might somehow be easier to mark or that injury necessarily ruins your season. There is a strong correlation between sides who go up and the top scorers. As things stand, we only have one scorer in the Top 20 in the division (Washington) although 11 of our 19 goals have come from 'strikers.' The eight others have been spread around and that has helped but perhaps also diluted a bit because we have used so many midfielders.
I still believe we need to bring a goal-scorer in come January to ensure we remain competitive and don't let points slip because of a lack of goals. You can get up without a leading goal-scorer but you usually scrape in if you do. I think we would all rather avoid that this season. Let's bring in a proven scorer in January.
Our success so far this season has certainly been built on defence. Not sure I buy an argument that it might be advantageous not to have a goal-scoring striker or front pair because they might somehow be easier to mark or that injury necessarily ruins your season. There is a strong correlation between sides who go up and the top scorers. As things stand, we only have one scorer in the Top 20 in the division (Washington) although 11 of our 19 goals have come from 'strikers.' The eight others have been spread around and that has helped but perhaps also diluted a bit because we have used so many midfielders.
I still believe we need to bring a goal-scorer in come January to ensure we remain competitive and don't let points slip because of a lack of goals. You can get up without a leading goal-scorer but you usually scrape in if you do. I think we would all rather avoid that this season. Let's bring in a proven scorer in January.
It feels like we're one striker short anyway, as Smyth isn't a prolific scorer and seems just as happy on the wing
Our success so far this season has certainly been built on defence. Not sure I buy an argument that it might be advantageous not to have a goal-scoring striker or front pair because they might somehow be easier to mark or that injury necessarily ruins your season. There is a strong correlation between sides who go up and the top scorers. As things stand, we only have one scorer in the Top 20 in the division (Washington) although 11 of our 19 goals have come from 'strikers.' The eight others have been spread around and that has helped but perhaps also diluted a bit because we have used so many midfielders.
I still believe we need to bring a goal-scorer in come January to ensure we remain competitive and don't let points slip because of a lack of goals. You can get up without a leading goal-scorer but you usually scrape in if you do. I think we would all rather avoid that this season. Let's bring in a proven scorer in January.
It feels like we're one striker short anyway, as Smyth isn't a prolific scorer and seems just as happy on the wing
The reason Smyth seems happier on the wing is, well ...... he's a winger really.
It's Bowyer who's trying to use him differently, like he's tried to do with Leko and Green last season. Bowyer's wild card philosophy, trying to get a winger to play his game through the middle and nick goals.
I like Smyth - busy little player, who's got pace, can run with the ball and pull defenders all over the shop. But IMO at least ..... a striker he ain't.
Our success so far this season has certainly been built on defence. Not sure I buy an argument that it might be advantageous not to have a goal-scoring striker or front pair because they might somehow be easier to mark or that injury necessarily ruins your season. There is a strong correlation between sides who go up and the top scorers. As things stand, we only have one scorer in the Top 20 in the division (Washington) although 11 of our 19 goals have come from 'strikers.' The eight others have been spread around and that has helped but perhaps also diluted a bit because we have used so many midfielders.
I still believe we need to bring a goal-scorer in come January to ensure we remain competitive and don't let points slip because of a lack of goals. You can get up without a leading goal-scorer but you usually scrape in if you do. I think we would all rather avoid that this season. Let's bring in a proven scorer in January.
It feels like we're one striker short anyway, as Smyth isn't a prolific scorer and seems just as happy on the wing
The reason Smyth seems happier on the wing is, well ...... he's a winger really.
It's Bowyer who's trying to use him differently, like he's tried to do with Leko and Green last season. Bowyer's wild card philosophy, trying to get a winger to play his game through the middle and nick goals.
I like Smyth - busy little player, who's got pace, can run with the ball and pull defenders all over the shop. But IMO at least ..... a striker he ain't.
Thierry Henry was happier on the wing, to start with.
I blame the former regime entirely for the lost time to enable us to get a quality striker in. Tonight, was a classic example of needing to take your chances when they come. We badly need to get a 'natural' in over Jan. Won't be easy, but without one I really think we can kiss the promotion party goodbye for this season.
I blame the former regime entirely for the lost time to enable us to get a quality striker in. Tonight, was a classic example of needing to take your chances when they come. We badly need to get a 'natural' in over Jan. Won't be easy, but without one I really think we can kiss the promotion party goodbye for this season.
We didn't lose tonight because we didn't take our chances though. Without some excellent saves by Amos we could have lost 4-2 again!
I blame the former regime entirely for the lost time to enable us to get a quality striker in. Tonight, was a classic example of needing to take your chances when they come. We badly need to get a 'natural' in over Jan. Won't be easy, but without one I really think we can kiss the promotion party goodbye for this season.
We didn't lose tonight because we didn't take our chances though. Without some excellent saves by Amos we could have lost 4-2 again!
With some better decision making from Washington we could have won 2-1
First, I think the club have done a sterling job in reinforcing the squad. Given the League One salary cap and our lateness into it, we can have no complaints.
However, when I look at our striking options I struggle to see who will get the goals we need this season if we are to seriously challenge for promotion.
Anneke, Bogle, Washington and Smyth are at their peak, aged between 23 and 28. All have league experience at a number of clubs but over the last four seasons, none have scored more than a total of 20 goals. In the circumstances, it might he asking a lot to expect two of them to get into double figures and even then, 15 or more would look like a big ask for any of them.
So, who's going to be our top scorer and how many?
Not sure, but whoever it is I doubt they will get much more than 10 or 12. Washington is ahead with 2 atm, but he is not an out & out striker (his miss at Lincoln showing that he is not a natural no. 9). None of the others have any real goal scoring record, although out of all of them I'd say Bogle could end up our top goalscorer.
Our main problem is that we are just not attack minded enough. No one really wants to have a shot & all like to pass to someone else when in & around the box (even Aneke, who played in Pratley on Saturday instead of having a shot). We do not have a poacher or natural finisher. Does my head in that our academy can produce defender after defender (Jenkinson, Gomez, Konsa) but not a decent striker in years (Defoe......but he never played for the first team). I remember Liverpool fans wondering what would happen once Ian Rush retired, but he was replaced by Robbie Fowler & then he was replaced by Michael Owen !!)
I have said this so many times I sound like a broken record - until you get a 20 goal a season striker you ain't getting out of this league - unless you have 3 or 4 other players chipping in with 12-15 goals each, which is rare & not happening with our team or set up. And to counter some previous posters, both Wycombe & Coventry only played 34 games last season.
In all our previous promotions going back to 1998, our leading goalscorer had scored 20 goals. (Mendonca, Hunt, BWP, Taylor)
I posted the above at the start of this thread back on October 19th. Nothing has changed imo.
We principally have 3 strikers:
Washington. Not an out & out striker but will chip in with a few. Not goal minded enough or clinical enough. Is in the 12-15 goals per season category.
Aneke. Probably the best of the 3 but for some reason (only known to LB & the medical guys) he can't play 2 games in a row. Should get the same number of goals as Washington but in less games.
Bogle. So off the pace he really should be 4th or 5th choice, but current situation says he either starts (and plays 60 mins) or comes on for the last 20. Will be lucky to get more than 7 or 8 goals this season.
The midfield should then be able to chip in with a few......but none shoot from distance & we only get the odd goal because the build up play is so slow that by the time the ball gets in the box one if them is in there following up. Between them (Shinnie, Morgan, Gilbey, Williams & Maddison) they might make double figures. Smyth might chip in with a couple, and so will Dougherty when fit. Buts that's it.
I'm glad Steve Gallen has prioritised a striker in the January transfer window, but unless he can prise away a decent striker from League 1 or 2 for peanuts (salary wise) then I think we'll be looking at loans or freebies......which going by recent history just wont be good enough.
First time we haven't scored in 10 league games and here comes the thread again!
The issue is an over reliance on clean sheets though. We've only picked up 4 points all season when we've conceded and just 1 point from 15 when we've gone behind in a game.
As I said on the post match thread, we've only had 42 shots on target all season - Hull, by comparison, have had 72. That isn't just about having a 20 goal a season striker. It's to do with our inability to create and to get into positions to shoot. And the way we set our team up not to lose.
Washington 5 goals from 10 starts and 2 substitutions Anneke 4 goals from 2 starts and 8 substitutions Smyth 1 goal from 2 starts and 2 substitutions Bogle 1 goal from 7 starts and 2 substitutions
19 goals in 14 matches. We have to bring in a goal-scorer early in the January window. I think it would also help Anneke and Washington's games too if we had a first choice striker who scored one in two.
For the record, our problem last night was midfield, not necessarily the forwards.
Yes, great to see five goals today and five different scorers. Washington and Anneke both adding to their tallies:
Washington 6 goals from 12 starts and 2 substitutions Anneke 5 goals from 3 starts and 9 substitutions Smyth 1 goal from 2 starts and 2 substitutions Bogle 1 goal from 8 starts and 3 substitutions
Purrington, Williams and Forster-Caskey all on 2 goals.
Spoilt yesterday with both of our main strikers on target. There was no stopping Bogle once he closed in on goal and Anneke got the last touch to his.
Washington 6 goals from 13 starts and 2 substitutions Anneke 6 goals from 3 starts and 10 substitutions Bogle 2 goals from 9 starts and 3 substitutions Smyth 1 goals from 2 starts and 2 substitutions
Still six games to the half-way stage of the season. Can Washington or Annke get to 10, which might suggest they could close in one the mythical 20? They will need to be quick as Ronnie Schwartz is rumoured to be in the building so someone is going to miss out, although that should certainly be Bogle.
xG shows we are the most OVER-performing club in League One. This smells a lot like last season... quick start, but xG indicates we are not as good as we appear..... then start giving up late goals, then fall apart. As pointed out by Addick Addict... if we need clean sheets to get 8 of our ten results this season, this bodes very badly for us. Especially if we rack up more injuries, which seems to be our MO.
xG shows we are the most OVER-performing club in League One. This smells a lot like last season... quick start, but xG indicates we are not as good as we appear..... then start giving up late goals, then fall apart. As pointed out by Addick Addict... if we need clean sheets to get 8 of our ten results this season, this bodes very badly for us. Especially if we rack up more injuries, which seems to be our MO.
There's one table that counts and that's the League table. It's not perfect, but it's not going to be wrong by eleven places.
xG shows we are the most OVER-performing club in League One. This smells a lot like last season... quick start, but xG indicates we are not as good as we appear..... then start giving up late goals, then fall apart. As pointed out by Addick Addict... if we need clean sheets to get 8 of our ten results this season, this bodes very badly for us. Especially if we rack up more injuries, which seems to be our MO.
We know we need to improve our attacking play, but that's why we're looking to bring in attacking players.
xG shows we are the most OVER-performing club in League One. This smells a lot like last season... quick start, but xG indicates we are not as good as we appear..... then start giving up late goals, then fall apart. As pointed out by Addick Addict... if we need clean sheets to get 8 of our ten results this season, this bodes very badly for us. Especially if we rack up more injuries, which seems to be our MO.
There's one table that counts and that's the League table. It's not perfect, but it's not going to be wrong by eleven places.
It was wrong by 13 places last year. Go back and look at the thread about it last season. When we were top 6 it showed we were actually bottom 1/3. When we were midtable it showed we were relegation. In the end we got relegated.
I think a lot of people really don't understand what xG really... is. It's all about reversion to the mean. Which eventually happens. That's why xG is so popular and why it is calculated and all managers (or those above the manager)... track it. If it was not useful it would not be calculated. xG shows we are probably heading further down the table over time.
xG shows we are the most OVER-performing club in League One. This smells a lot like last season... quick start, but xG indicates we are not as good as we appear..... then start giving up late goals, then fall apart. As pointed out by Addick Addict... if we need clean sheets to get 8 of our ten results this season, this bodes very badly for us. Especially if we rack up more injuries, which seems to be our MO.
There's one table that counts and that's the League table. It's not perfect, but it's not going to be wrong by eleven places.
It was wrong by 13 places last year. Go back and look at the thread about it last season. When we were top 6 it showed we were actually bottom 1/3. When we were midtable it showed we were relegation. In the end we got relegated.
I think a lot of people really don't understand what xG really... is. It's all about reversion to the mean. Which eventually happens. That's why xG is so popular and why it is calculated and all managers (or those above the manager)... track it. If it was not useful it would not be calculated. xG shows we are probably heading further down the table over time.
I understand xG but that table doesn’t tell you if a team is improving their attacking play - Maddison for example is settling in and having more of an impact on games. It would be interesting to see our xG game by game rather than just what it currently is.
xG shows we are the most OVER-performing club in League One. This smells a lot like last season... quick start, but xG indicates we are not as good as we appear..... then start giving up late goals, then fall apart. As pointed out by Addick Addict... if we need clean sheets to get 8 of our ten results this season, this bodes very badly for us. Especially if we rack up more injuries, which seems to be our MO.
There's one table that counts and that's the League table. It's not perfect, but it's not going to be wrong by eleven places.
It was wrong by 13 places last year. Go back and look at the thread about it last season. When we were top 6 it showed we were actually bottom 1/3. When we were midtable it showed we were relegation. In the end we got relegated.
I think a lot of people really don't understand what xG really... is. It's all about reversion to the mean. Which eventually happens. That's why xG is so popular and why it is calculated and all managers (or those above the manager)... track it. If it was not useful it would not be calculated. xG shows we are probably heading further down the table over time.
I’ll admit, as I have in the past, of not completely understanding xG all the time. But are you so confident of xG that you believe we’ll finish 17th or close to it this season?
Comments
Perhaps, what was meant is that a 1-0 lead always leaves you vulnerable to a stroke of misfortune or something you can't defend, like a fluke deflection, wonder goal or inexplicable refereeing decision?
Of course, a 2-0 cushion means you are not so much at the mercy of the gods.
But there are plenty of 1-0 wins typically in the course of a season for every promotion winning side.
Remember, most promotion sides are built first on the principle of solid defence and clean sheets.
Then you 'need' only 1 goal to win.
Anneke 4 goals from 2 start and 7 substitutions
Smyth 1 goal from 2 starts and 2 substitutions
Bogle 1 goals from 6 starts and 2 substitutions
All the strikers off the mark now. Morgan's opener means most of the midfielders have a goal apiece too.
2-0
0-0
1-0
1-0
2-0
2-0
2-0
3-2
1-1
2-0
It doesn't take a genius to work out that our game plan is to keep a clean sheet and to build on that especially as we are not good at coming from behind - one point from the four games in which this has happened.
Gunter and Pratley are makeshift CBs and despite yesterday's result we will be stronger once we are able to field Famewo and Inniss together again (four clean sheets and four wins) or with at least one of them back. All we need then is for one of our 11 goal scorers this season to nick a goal.
There is also an irony in not having one or two prolific strikers - an injury can be devastating and it's also easier for the opposition to work out where a goal threat will come from. Look at Spurs - 16 of their 21 PL goals and 13 assists have come from Kane and Son. How Spurs would struggle if those two were injured.
I still believe we need to bring a goal-scorer in come January to ensure we remain competitive and don't let points slip because of a lack of goals. You can get up without a leading goal-scorer but you usually scrape in if you do. I think we would all rather avoid that this season. Let's bring in a proven scorer in January.
However, I will agree that a good defence is key, especially if, like us, you can't come back from going a goal behind.
It's Bowyer who's trying to use him differently, like he's tried to do with Leko and Green last season.
Bowyer's wild card philosophy, trying to get a winger to play his game through the middle and nick goals.
I like Smyth - busy little player, who's got pace, can run with the ball and pull defenders all over the shop.
But IMO at least ..... a striker he ain't.
But then again, so was Ian Ormondroyd!
Tonight, was a classic example of needing to take your chances when they come.
We badly need to get a 'natural' in over Jan.
Won't be easy, but without one I really think we can kiss the promotion party goodbye for this season.
We principally have 3 strikers:
Washington. Not an out & out striker but will chip in with a few. Not goal minded enough or clinical enough. Is in the 12-15 goals per season category.
Aneke. Probably the best of the 3 but for some reason (only known to LB & the medical guys) he can't play 2 games in a row. Should get the same number of goals as Washington but in less games.
Bogle. So off the pace he really should be 4th or 5th choice, but current situation says he either starts (and plays 60 mins) or comes on for the last 20. Will be lucky to get more than 7 or 8 goals this season.
The midfield should then be able to chip in with a few......but none shoot from distance & we only get the odd goal because the build up play is so slow that by the time the ball gets in the box one if them is in there following up. Between them (Shinnie, Morgan, Gilbey, Williams & Maddison) they might make double figures. Smyth might chip in with a couple, and so will Dougherty when fit. Buts that's it.
I'm glad Steve Gallen has prioritised a striker in the January transfer window, but unless he can prise away a decent striker from League 1 or 2 for peanuts (salary wise) then I think we'll be looking at loans or freebies......which going by recent history just wont be good enough.
As I said on the post match thread, we've only had 42 shots on target all season - Hull, by comparison, have had 72. That isn't just about having a 20 goal a season striker. It's to do with our inability to create and to get into positions to shoot. And the way we set our team up not to lose.
Anneke 4 goals from 2 starts and 8 substitutions
Smyth 1 goal from 2 starts and 2 substitutions
Bogle 1 goal from 7 starts and 2 substitutions
19 goals in 14 matches. We have to bring in a goal-scorer early in the January window. I think it would also help Anneke and Washington's games too if we had a first choice striker who scored one in two.
For the record, our problem last night was midfield, not necessarily the forwards.
Washington 6 goals from 12 starts and 2 substitutions
Anneke 5 goals from 3 starts and 9 substitutions
Smyth 1 goal from 2 starts and 2 substitutions
Bogle 1 goal from 8 starts and 3 substitutions
Purrington, Williams and Forster-Caskey all on 2 goals.
Washington 6 goals from 13 starts and 2 substitutions
Anneke 6 goals from 3 starts and 10 substitutions
Bogle 2 goals from 9 starts and 3 substitutions
Smyth 1 goals from 2 starts and 2 substitutions
Still six games to the half-way stage of the season. Can Washington or Annke get to 10, which might suggest they could close in one the mythical 20? They will need to be quick as Ronnie Schwartz is rumoured to be in the building so someone is going to miss out, although that should certainly be Bogle.
Have said countless times that the secret to getting promotion from League One is clean sheets, concede the least amount of goals and you'll go up
Why? - Because defences are shit at this level, you will get chances to score, as we're seeing at both ends of the pitch for us at the moment!!
Yes, we'd all like to have scored more. Yes, we'd all like to have conceded less.
But can we finally put this thread to bed?
It was wrong by 13 places last year. Go back and look at the thread about it last season. When we were top 6 it showed we were actually bottom 1/3. When we were midtable it showed we were relegation. In the end we got relegated.
I think a lot of people really don't understand what xG really... is. It's all about reversion to the mean. Which eventually happens. That's why xG is so popular and why it is calculated and all managers (or those above the manager)... track it. If it was not useful it would not be calculated. xG shows we are probably heading further down the table over time.