Best guess for Saturday’s going is GS that’s quicker than last year.
On that basis, these are the top 8 with either winning or strong place potential according to my model’s ratings, excluding Mighty Thunder and Cloth Cap who are both at risk from potential breathing issues. They’re in order that I’d most want to have them on my betting slip each-way on decent ground.
Fiddlerontheroof
Dingo Dollar
Delta Work
Freewheelin Dylan
Enjoy D'Allen
Snow Leopardess
Longhouse Poet
Death Duty
On decent ground I’d definitely want to back the top 5 and if I was adding a 6th, at current prices, I’d probably plump for Death Duty. I hope these bloody weather forecasts prove correct.
Hi Peanuts I think your last post shows the race is very open this year. Around half the runners are Irish trained and one or two will have dodgy handicap weights.
Hi Peanuts I think your last post shows the race is very open this year. Around half the runners are Irish trained and one or two will have dodgy handicap weights.
Completely agree. Especially on a sound surface, there's more with strong-place calibre stat profiles this year than typical. Winner, 3rd and 4th from last time all clobbered by the handicapper but otherwise it’s wide open. British horses doing better at the Festival and some indifferent form for Elliott and De Bromhead doesn’t necessarily point to the Irish not winning this one, cos as you say they’ve got half the field, but it does open the door for the first British winner for 5 years.
Maybe we can tighten the "Slide Rule" to refine the models selections. I don't like to use an "elimination" approach, other than where "cast iron", but if I were to drill down among the Slide Rule tests to identify which specific test-fails were never seen among the 14 winners and near-missers and/or never seen among the placers, then I would have a concern about making the frame for:
Longhouse Poet - with 11.04 fails the weight test in light of his current CV (37 of the 40 to make 1st~5th failed this specific test, the nearest of the exceptions being 16L 4th)
And, I'd have a concern about winning (not placing) for:
Enjoy D'Allen (hurdles RPR & no Wild Risk on damside)
Freewheelin Dylan (hurdles RPR)
Eclair Surf (hurdles RPR & no Wild Risk on damside)
Since no winner or near-misser <5L failed either the minimum hurdles RPR or damside-Wild Risk tests.
At 50/1 even now, assuming he's got ground to suit, I'd never abandon Dylan (and I certainly wouldn't eject Enjoy D'Allen having backed him at 50s) but if I didn't have the ammo to back all the model's selections at current prices, I'd probably jettison the other 3.
That said, I've learnt to my cost not to pick and choose between my model's selections - hence the aim to identify and back likely candidates as early as poss for the best prices.
Another possible elimination stat, that doesn't affect my team but which does look strong in terms of statistically-meanngful underperformance, is that veterans (10yo+) carrying >11.00 have drawn a blank since 2013 in finishing 1st~6th despite accounting for 10% of fields. On that basis, if any one of these were to even make the frame, they'd be a stat-buster:
Any Second Now
Brahma Bull
Lostintranslation
Santini
Samcro
Those like Longhouse Poet that are 7~9yo but fail my model's Weight test are:
I doff my cap to you Sir. Congratulations on a wonderful thread once again. I thought I knew a bit about racing but your insight is quite remarkable. Good luck tomorrow.
From what I can work out it’s better to have a 2 to 1 winner than a 33 to 1 loser.
Better to have a good value 33/1 loser than a bad value 2/1 winner. Would you rather have 2/1 on Charlton to win at Rotherham tomorrow or 33/1 on Charlton to finish top six next season?
Thinking in the longer term is always better whereas if you’re trying to chase winners at any cost, you might as well back the favourite every time and that’s a guaranteed way to lose money. You’re guaranteed to win the most often but your wins won’t cover losses and the money will drain away quickly.
Posted at 12.48 on RP that Phoenix Way was scratched to give Commodore a run - the other 2 are no longer offered by some bookies so if 1 of them was out by 1pm SBH should be in. Waiting for confirmation. Always thought it nuts for Lord Du Mesnil to run if it looked like decent ground.
Peanuts - first up, this is brilliant as always. I've followed you as always, though I might take a chance on Cloth Cap.
Where does SBH rank on the model? Didn't see his name explicitly mentioned of late as wasn't likely to make the cut, so unless I've missed it, am I right in saying you didn't factor him in earlier this week?
Peanuts - first up, this is brilliant as always. I've followed you as always, though I might take a chance on Cloth Cap.
Where does SBH rank on the model? Didn't see his name explicitly mentioned of late as wasn't likely to make the cut, so unless I've missed it, am I right in saying you didn't factor him in earlier this week?
Ground quicker today on Mildmay and hurdles courses. Expecting similar on GN course for the Topham at 4.05. Forecast still for dry and sunny-ish day tomorrow. They'll likely apply water overnight but expecting the going to be on the quick side of GS for the big one.
I was on early on School Boy Hours at 33s and switched to NRNB 6 places at the same price a couple of weeks ago, and glad I did, cos on decent ground he's in the top 6 (stat-rating 2++).
I never spelt out the reasons why the model rates him and will do so shortly.
In the meantime: my re-configured preferences on the likely ground:
One of the most open GNs I can recall in recent years, helped by another 2 potential frame hitters being subbed in today and a few of the no hopers withdrawing. You could make a solid enough case for about 25 of the field to have a shout.
Ahoy Senor, despite a hard race at Cheltenham, does it easily on his preferred good ground. Great for Lucinda and, if his wind holds up, promising for Mighty Thunder. A big IF though.
I see that SBH is best price at B365 according to Oddschecker. Unless it’s too late, might be worth grabbing that with the e/w offer before they cut like the rest of them have.
Assigned a GN OR142 (identical to his Irish mark - why he alone was not penalised among the Irish contingent is a mystery and could prove a miscalculation), he'll carry just 10.05 tomorrow.
9 yo in his 3rd season chasing but, with only 4 chases at 24~26f, he's unexposed at further but the way he's finished his 3m chases suggests that he'll be at his best over extended tips. 2 particularly notable performances at 24~25.5f:
- Staying-on close 2nd at levels to Eklat De Rire (now rated 153) over 25.5f on heavy last season
- Strong finishing winner of the 24f Paddy Power Hdcp in December on quickish ground (Gd~Yielding) - a race with a big field and lots of hurly burly that's proved a strong pointer for the GN in recent years, most recently Minella Times close 2nd prior to his GN. That race was franked by both Birchdale (off effectively 4lbs higher mark) and Death Duty in Feb. Enjoy D’Allen (close 3rd) represents the PP Hdcp as well and, on that result, has a 3lb advantage but that's nothing over the GN trip.
- Pedigree re-enforces his GN claims:
From the family of top stayer Bonanza Boy (winner of the Welsh Nat (twice), Midlands National and 5th in the 1991 GN)
Sire Presenting sired GN winner Ballabriggs and close 2nd Pleasant Company
Damside has the electric combo of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler and his 2nd damsire is Strong Gale (damsire of Cappa Bleu and Teaforthree and 2nd DS of Rathvinden and The Last Samuri) and 3rd damsire is Menelek (sire of GN winners, Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy and 3rd damsire of Any Second Now)
- 2 runs in the season a tad short of ideal but last 23 days prior that wasn't a hard race (in touch and progressing until late when stumbling badly 4 out and PU-ing) is a help stats-wise.
Partnered tomorrow by Sean Flanagan who piloted him to his Paddy Power win.
25/1 (especially if Bet365's half-stake refund is available to you) is great value IMHO.
Won’t last and he could be a plunge horse, on the back of his PP win, now he’s in.
5m 22.89s (slow by 2.89s) the time for the Topham, and the winner did it comfortably in the end. That is definitely Good side of GS. They're bound to water tonight with the forecast but it will not ride markedly different tomorrow. Another drying day.
Comments
They’re in order that I’d most want to have them on my betting slip each-way on decent ground.
I hope these bloody weather forecasts prove correct.
Especially on a sound surface, there's more with strong-place calibre stat profiles this year than typical.
Winner, 3rd and 4th from last time all clobbered by the handicapper but otherwise it’s wide open.
British horses doing better at the Festival and some indifferent form for Elliott and De Bromhead doesn’t necessarily point to the Irish not winning this one, cos as you say they’ve got half the field, but it does open the door for the first British winner for 5 years.
Maybe we can tighten the "Slide Rule" to refine the models selections.
I don't like to use an "elimination" approach, other than where "cast iron", but if I were to drill down among the Slide Rule tests to identify which specific test-fails were never seen among the 14 winners and near-missers and/or never seen among the placers, then I would have a concern about making the frame for:
- Longhouse Poet - with 11.04 fails the weight test in light of his current CV (37 of the 40 to make 1st~5th failed this specific test, the nearest of the exceptions being 16L 4th)
And, I'd have a concern about winning (not placing) for:- Enjoy D'Allen (hurdles RPR & no Wild Risk on damside)
- Freewheelin Dylan (hurdles RPR)
- Eclair Surf (hurdles RPR & no Wild Risk on damside)
Since no winner or near-misser <5L failed either the minimum hurdles RPR or damside-Wild Risk tests.At 50/1 even now, assuming he's got ground to suit, I'd never abandon Dylan (and I certainly wouldn't eject Enjoy D'Allen having backed him at 50s) but if I didn't have the ammo to back all the model's selections at current prices, I'd probably jettison the other 3.
That said, I've learnt to my cost not to pick and choose between my model's selections - hence the aim to identify and back likely candidates as early as poss for the best prices.
Another possible elimination stat, that doesn't affect my team but which does look strong in terms of statistically-meanngful underperformance, is that veterans (10yo+) carrying >11.00 have drawn a blank since 2013 in finishing 1st~6th despite accounting for 10% of fields.
On that basis, if any one of these were to even make the frame, they'd be a stat-buster:
- Any Second Now
- Brahma Bull
- Lostintranslation
- Santini
- Samcro
Those like Longhouse Poet that are 7~9yo but fail my model's Weight test are:Congratulations on a wonderful thread once again. I thought I knew a bit about racing but your insight is quite remarkable. Good luck tomorrow.
fiddlerontheroof
Two for gold
Dingo dollar
good luck everyone
Not if you get a place.
Waiting for confirmation.
Always thought it nuts for Lord Du Mesnil to run if it looked like decent ground.
Where does SBH rank on the model? Didn't see his name explicitly mentioned of late as wasn't likely to make the cut, so unless I've missed it, am I right in saying you didn't factor him in earlier this week?
Thanks again!
Cheers @PaddyP17
Ground quicker today on Mildmay and hurdles courses. Expecting similar on GN course for the Topham at 4.05.
Forecast still for dry and sunny-ish day tomorrow. They'll likely apply water overnight but expecting the going to be on the quick side of GS for the big one.
I was on early on School Boy Hours at 33s and switched to NRNB 6 places at the same price a couple of weeks ago, and glad I did, cos on decent ground he's in the top 6 (stat-rating 2++).
I never spelt out the reasons why the model rates him and will do so shortly.
In the meantime: my re-configured preferences on the likely ground:
- Fiddlerontheroof
- Dingo Dollar
- Delta Work
- Freewheelin Dylan
- Enjoy D'Allen
- School Boy Hours
Biggest dangers:Great for Lucinda and, if his wind holds up, promising for Mighty Thunder. A big IF though.
Carries 10.05.
I think I will have to move forward with School Boy Hours, Mighty Thunder, Dingo Dollar, Freewheelin Dylan and Death Duty.
Thank you as always Peanuts. Fingers and toes crossed for tomorrow!
Assigned a GN OR142 (identical to his Irish mark - why he alone was not penalised among the Irish contingent is a mystery and could prove a miscalculation), he'll carry just 10.05 tomorrow.
9 yo in his 3rd season chasing but, with only 4 chases at 24~26f, he's unexposed at further but the way he's finished his 3m chases suggests that he'll be at his best over extended tips. 2 particularly notable performances at 24~25.5f:
- Staying-on close 2nd at levels to Eklat De Rire (now rated 153) over 25.5f on heavy last season
- Strong finishing winner of the 24f Paddy Power Hdcp in December on quickish ground (Gd~Yielding) - a race with a big field and lots of hurly burly that's proved a strong pointer for the GN in recent years, most recently Minella Times close 2nd prior to his GN. That race was franked by both Birchdale (off effectively 4lbs higher mark) and Death Duty in Feb. Enjoy D’Allen (close 3rd) represents the PP Hdcp as well and, on that result, has a 3lb advantage but that's nothing over the GN trip.
- Pedigree re-enforces his GN claims:
- From the family of top stayer Bonanza Boy (winner of the Welsh Nat (twice), Midlands National and 5th in the 1991 GN)
- Sire Presenting sired GN winner Ballabriggs and close 2nd Pleasant Company
- Damside has the electric combo of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler and his 2nd damsire is Strong Gale (damsire of Cappa Bleu and Teaforthree and 2nd DS of Rathvinden and The Last Samuri) and 3rd damsire is Menelek (sire of GN winners, Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy and 3rd damsire of Any Second Now)
- 2 runs in the season a tad short of ideal but last 23 days prior that wasn't a hard race (in touch and progressing until late when stumbling badly 4 out and PU-ing) is a help stats-wise.Partnered tomorrow by Sean Flanagan who piloted him to his Paddy Power win.
25/1 (especially if Bet365's half-stake refund is available to you) is great value IMHO.
That is definitely Good side of GS.
They're bound to water tonight with the forecast but it will not ride markedly different tomorrow. Another drying day.