Apologies for an unusually early start for the GN thread this season, but there's an interesting and potentially significant renewal of the Grand Sefton this afternoon (2.15).
TIME TO GET UP, the JP-owned & Jonjo-trained winner of a decent quality Midlands National over 34f last March. Got up that day to pip Mighty Thunder (who went on to take the Scottish GN a month later and is himself an interesting candidate for the biggie, despite being outclassed in the Charlie Hall) will take his first look at the GN fences.
Probably too short a trip at 21f today but a useful sighter for a very serious contender on form and stats. 20/1 ante-post for the real thing.
Enjoy.
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That said, it's difficult to see from the tele how fit he stripped for what was his seasonal debut and it will be interesting to see if Jonjo brings him back for the Becher in 3 weeks.
Even off his mark today, he'd probably want him up a lb or two in the handicap to ensure a run in the big one.
Jury out.
The latter is Scot Nat winner and Mid Nat runner up, 8 yo Mighty Thunder, who ticks quite a few boxes for a GN. He's on the drift today (out to 14s) and best result would be a nice sighter but nothing to incur the wrath of the handicapper to spoil a handy OR150.
Kimberlite Candy (11/1) could run well again (fresh) today - loves the fences and should love the ground. He was a disappointment in April and no doubt the pace was too quick for him but he also got very unlucky in running and was never in the race. Not to be written off if underhoof conditions are more to his liking in 4 months time.
Big chance for the topweight today, Chris's Dream (8/1) who was going very nicely with the leaders last April before departing 4 out. Interesting to see whether Mac Tottie (8/1) can repeat his fantastic run when taking the Grand Sefton over the extra 5f today. Achille (nice pull at the weights with Mighty Thunder) would have been my e/w pick at 14/1 on Thursday but the market got behind him before I could get my shilling down and 8/1 looks a bit meagre for a fence-debutant who can get a little behind in his races.
If Connor O'Farrell were in the plate, I'd have a nibble on Vieux Lion Rouge to win back to back Becher (the pair brought home the bacon for me last year), but I'm just not a fan nowadays (as he's got a bit moodier) of him paired with Tom Scu and 10/1 doesn't tempt me particularly.
Bound to be something from the longer prices that goes well but I'm not had the time to sift through them closely enough so will be a spectator only this afternoon, but a very interested one.
May yet be tempted to pair CHRIS'S DREAM and KIMBERLITE CANDY in a forecast.
Should be a cracker.
Prior to that, at 2.05, Tiger Roll makes his season's debut in the Many Clouds Chase.
Lightweights fared best on the ground, though Chris's Dream was going nicely enough and in touch when softly unseating after Foinavon. Kimberlite strangely jumped poorly.
Snow Leopardess cut to 20s for April and will surely get the required nudge up in the handicap to have the chance to run.
4 former winners line up, including redoubtable topweight Native River, stablemate Elegant Escape, Potters Corner and last year's Secret Reprieve, together with a host of other lively contenders, including 2 close runners-up in the race Ramses de Teillee and Truckers Lodge.
Good cases can be made for any of these and several others, including the interesting Irish contender, winner of the Irish GN Trial The Big Dog (from the family of 1992 GN 2nd Romany King).
With April in mind, I'll be keeping a close eye on Mighty Thunder and, despite running off a career-high OR150 in a handicap for the first time, with a workable 10.10 on his back (courtesy of Native River's participation, which also places 7 of the 20 runners out of the handicap), 14/1 (7 places) with WH has some each-way appeal for the progressive 8 yo. Has winning form on testing ground, taking the Edinburgh National over 31f in Feb, prior to a close 2nd in the Mid Nat and an impressive win in the Scottish GN.
And, at IMHO bonkers prices, I've added 2 more each way interests:
Kimberlite Candy 33/1 (5 places), jumped poorly in his season's bow in the Becher Chase but is a winner over Chepstow's fences (important stat for WGN winners) and, importantly, has his usual partner Richie McLernon back in the plate. Interestingly, dons blinkers for the first time. Yet to win off >140 (now rated 150) but was a fine 2nd off 153 in last year's Becher and, again, carries a workable 10.10 tomorrow with ground very much to suit.
Achille 33/1 (7 places), made minor places in the Midlands Nat and Becher Chase and was a strong finishing close 2nd in GN Trial in Feb on Haydock's notoriously testing Soft ground. Off a similar mark tomorrow but has 5lbs taken off by Hugh Nugent, who has a good record on his back (2 of last 4 WGN winning jockies were claimers). Yet to run at Chepstow but ran well over a similar test at Cheltenham and, though he can get behind in his races, with just 9.10 to carry, conditions tomorrow should be right up his street.
All 3 bets more for fun than out of conviction in what is a red hot renewal.
Should be an absolute belter.
Enjoy.
My eldest picked out Tornado Flyer !
Yay
Being the scrimmage it is with 27 runners, the PP Hdcp has become an interesting pointer to the some of the better Irish hopes for Aintree in April; especially JPs young, potential contenders.
For the most part this year, JP's squad that's within range Ratings-wise is on the young side to run at Aintree 2022. But down the weights Birchdale (though still a maiden over fences, now in the hands of Enda Bolger) is of interest (today at least) at a suitable trip for the first time in a chase and will carry an e/w shilling of mine at 33/1 (6 places). Related to Carlingford Lough and other top 3 milers (and incidentally a nice one of mine that sadly had a foreshortened career, so possibly heart ruling here!).
With next April in mind, the runner of most obvious interest today isn't JP's but is 2nd season chaser 7yo Enjoy D'allen, a close and not-stopping 3rd in the Irish GN. He'd certainly be on the "long list" if going close today and taking his chance at Aintree and, notwithstanding 3lbs higher mark than at Fairyhouse and his jockey losing his claim, 25/1 is IMHO appealing each way value for a very genuine fellow, who's yet to finish out of the frame in 9 chases.
Nollaig Shona Daoibh.
Fry's in good form and great value at 33s.
Achille backed into 14s. @bobmunro was offering 50s for 5 places yesterday.
Arguably still the classiest true stayer in the country, even at the age of 11, and hasn’t run further than the GC trip or in handicap company since winning this 5 years ago.
Tidal Bay carried topweight to go very close when a 12 yo and Raz De Maree (2nd to him that day) won it 12 months on when effectively 12.
He puts 7 of the oppo out of the handicap and though that's not stopped such winners in this previously, there are plenty worse each way candidates IMHO.
I've deployed my free bet, courtesy of the munificent @bobmunro, to add him to my team.
At Kempton today. Shishkin was incredible.
Cheers @paulbaconsarnie
Glad he hung on to make a return for us. Looked like he might score coming off the final bend but, thankfully, put me in profit this afternoon despite not hitting a bullseye.
Winner (School Boy Hours) might make up into a GN candidate if progressing on this first win over fences; related to Bonanza Boy and a pedigree typical of pre-2013 GN success but would need to go up 12lbs+ to get a chance this time round.
Enjoy D'Allen with another admirable run in 3rd, likely already has a high enough rating and does merit serious consideration each-way if he gets an entry for Aintree.
Attritional stuff at Chepstow with 14 PU.
Credit to Iwilldoit - yet another home-town success and back-to-back winner of the Trial and the real thing.
Related to Bless The Wings and plenty of Wild Risk in the pedigree to hint at GN potential. Will probably get a high enough mark to get in in April but still early doors in his fencing career and trainer considers him better in the mud.
I pissed my freebie away but still managed to prize a little out of his clenched fist
Have a good one.
Crazy early it may be but when there’s a whiff of a wonky price about a lively and likely GN contender, it’d be rude not to. And to my nose, @bobmunro’s 100/1 about FREEWHEELIN DYLAN seems like sizzling bacon.
Why?1. The form of April’s Irish GN, of which he was the longest-ever priced winner at 150/1, is proving to be decent:
Both of these 7yo, 2nd season chasers are entitled to be progressive, but 9yo Dylan’s also shown since that he’s still competitive despite a higher mark:
- Off +8lbs a month later, he carried topweight over
31f to be a not-stopping 3L 4th behind Scottish GN runner-up Mister
Fogpatches (receiving 17lbs) and fellow topweight Anibale Fly.
- Off +10lbs (OR147) in November, as an Aintree
prep, he was going very nicely and in contention in a competitive XC at
Cheltenham before a soft UR 5 from home
- On paper, recent collateral form (including but also independent of the Troytown) imply ratings for both Dylan and Enjoy D'allen ahead of Farclas (GN 5th off OR146 and 25/1 for April) and, while OR151 may now flatter him, he's set a consistent and competitive benchmark over the last year at up to OR148, suggesting both may have a tad more up their sleeves at current marks
2. Loves an extended trip on decent ground: In 11 chases & 1 hurdle over 25f+ on Gd or Y, he’s made the frame in 75%, with 8 wins or near-misses (67%)3. Pedigree consistent with making the frame in a GN:
4. Age is fine, being 10yo come April. 5 of 14 winners/near-missers from 2013 and 40% of those finishing 1st~5th were 10+yo
5. Likely to make the cut with a very workable weight. Was given OR147 by the British handicapper for his (respectable) run at Cheltenham and Irish mark is 146; the same as Minella Times' last April, when he carried 10.03 (the cut was at OR145).
As a general observation, perhaps unsurprisingly, the GN record of former Irish GN winners or near-missers continues to be decent post-2012; from 14 runs, 5 made the frame (1st~5th), including the 2016 winner (i.e. 4.4% of runners contributing 12.5% of winners and first 5 places).
We’re a month away from entries but Dylan’s stated target is the Aintree GN, not least because of his love of decent ground (handily, Aintree is 9 days prior to the Irish GN this season so, unless it's looking wet, presumably he’ll head to Liverpool).
He’s unlikely to be seen again on the track until better ground returns but all that’s needed to confirm a frame-making stat-profile is a safe prep 22~49 days prior to the big day.
Even if he’s a tick short of winning-calibre stats, he's very much got the profile to make a bold show on decent ground and, with most other bookies making him 50~66/1 and most Betfair trades at 65~70, 100s for 5 places (1/4 odds) is too big an each-way price IMHO. Thus, my first shilling is invested.
Happy New Year.
- Winner, School Boy Hours (in JP's colours and from family of the high class stayer Bonanza Boy), is +9lbs to 142 - would likely need another few lbs to have a chance of lining up for the big one
- 2nd Ben Dundee +4lbs to 146 and 4th Braeside (winner of the 28f Cork National, who could be of interest in a soft ground GN) +2lbs to 145, both have ratings that should make the GN cut, if that's their target, but neither would likely figure on my team on good ground
- However close 3rd ENJOY D’ALLEN (+3lbs to OR148) most certainly would as he remains progressive over an extended trip IMHO. His target is unclear but 50s were too good to pass up and I've had an early e/w dabble, though sadly Bet365 have now cut him to 40s. We'll have to wait and see whether this very genuine 2nd season chaser gets an entry at the end of the month.
Also this morning I've added to my stake on FREEWHEELIN DYLAN who's rated OR146 but on April's Irish GN victory was 2lbs superior to Enjoy D'Allen and only 2lbs inferior to now OR158-rated Run Wild Fred (16/1 for the GN). Even allowing for the British handicapper to add a couple of lbs to the Irish marks, he looks materially overpriced at 100s by Bet365 (5 places, 1/4 odds), given that Aintree is the stated target.Just a safe prep in due course is all that's needed to confirm Dylan with the stat-rating for a strong run and, if you want to have a dabble and are prepared to do so antepost, Bet365 is now the only outlier in the market (all others bookies now best-price 66s and latest Betfair win trade at 70) and I would be surprised to see the 100s last much longer.
Just a heads up if you're interested.
TTFN
Because he's a c*nt.
Edit - PU on unfavourable ground but mission accomplished and a final safe spin late Feb or early Mar would be ideal.
Small but quality field for a very interesting renewal of the 28f Portman Cup at Taunton tomorrow.
The weights favour Yala Enki in his attempt for a hat-trick but he won't have things his own way on ground that offers to be a bit better than he might prefer.
I'll have my eyes on the frustrating but talented 10 yo Elegant Escape, whose GN intentions are unclear but who, if he can put in a strong show without incurring the subsequent wrath of the handicapper, who's dropped him for the first time to a mark (150) lower than when he last tasted victory in the 2018 Welsh GN, when impressively holding off Ramses de Teillee, who also opposes tomorrow.
From the family of Romany King, close runner-up to Party Politics in the GN 30 years ago, he's got the stats to go well in the big one if he can show he's back fit and in love with the game. Signs of it at Chepstow last month and, on a sounder surface, could go well tomorrow.
Of most interest to me on their current stat-profiles, providing they don't attract the unwelcome attention of the handicapper, are:
Braeside, impressive winner of the Cork National and 7/1 co fav today, for whom a safe spin will suffice (assuming he's entered for Aintree) and
Escaria Ten, on season's debut but nicely handicapped based on his 3L defeat to Galvin at the Festival. GN thought to be his target and he needs to be in the mix to edge his stats into backable territory.
Plenty of strong opposition and should be a cracker.
Assuming he's OK, Braeside (PU) still very much of interest though the softer the ground the better his chance.
Escaria Ten (threatening until emptying at the last) ran nicely but the niggle-enforced late start to his campaign may count against him, even with 10 weeks still to go.
The well-backed and possibly slightly cosy winner, Longhouse Poet, from GN-winning yard of Martin Brassil (Numbersixvalverde, who won the 2005 Thyestes before taking the Irish GN the same season and the GN a year later), despite being a tad light on experience, is also shaping up very nicely as a GN candidate stats-wise if he's given that as his target now. Ladbrokes make him 33s after his win.
A 2nd season chaser, unbeaten over fences at 3m+ (including a defeat at level weights of now 158-rated Run Wild Fred) and with that uncommon Wild Risk X Factor on his damside, he's ticking a lot of boxes.
We'll have to wait to see how much his 145 mark is hiked but his form and yet another creditable run by 5L 3rd Mister Fogpatches (a good benchmark) in my book lends still more collateral support at current marks over an extended trip for Freewheelin Dylan (still 100/1 for Aintree) and Mighty Thunder.