Quick mention for some likely GN runners having their final preps tomorrow:
DINGO DOLLAR (50/1 for the GN), one of my model's top 6 on stat-ratings on a sound surface, runs in the Listed Premier Chase at Kelso, favoured by Ballabriggs as his GN preps. Soft ground and weights relative to a couple of rivals not in his favour but a safe spin is all the doctor's ordering.
As usual a small field, including possible GN rivals Windsor Avenue and Itchy Feet, neither of which tick enough boxes.
Cloth Cap tops the weights in the 26f Grimthorpe at Donny and he too will have to contend with unsuitable soft ground.
And at Newbury Kildisart has his first start for 462 days. No chance on the stats of being ready to contend on 9 April regardless of how he goes tomorrow.
Looking ahead to The Festival, a strong show could upgrade the GN stat-profile of at least 1 current GN outsider, but as they're 6/1 2nd fav to Tiger for the 30f XC and Bob is being his munificent self once again, I'll mention him now.
DELTA WORK (66/1 for the GN with Bet365, 40s generally elsewhere)
One of those quality 24~26f chasers for which early success as a 5~7 yo locked them into a career exclusively in Grade 1 company. Though still only a 9 yo, he's now clearly over-matched in that arena and, having come down the handicap, looks ripe for his handicap debut.
More than 2 years since his last win but was a keeping-on up The Hill 6th (6L) in the 2020 Gold Cup (rated OR170 at the time) and, until headgear was removed for his last 2 runs, ran equally creditably in Grade 1 company in 3 of his 6 subsequent runs.
Dropped to a mark of OR160 for the GN, for which Elliott says he's "a definite possibility", he'd carry 11.03 if Galvin or Conflated run and 11.08 if (as likely) they don't. For most runners that would be too much but, as Many Clouds showed in 2015, it is possible for a quality stayer to win a modern GN with a big weight (11.09 in his case off the very same OR160), especially of course if fortune smiles rather than frowns.
By way of further comparison, Many Clouds was also untried beyond the Gold Cup trip (in which he'd finished a more remote 6th) and, prior to his GN win, had just notched a career high chase RPR166. By comparison, at his 2019/20 peak, Delta Work notched x3 times chase RPRs168~173 and, as recently as last October, a 165 when 5L adrift of Galvin at levels; giving him a season's best 3+m RPR vs GNOR of +5 (meeting a crude benchmark for competitive GN weight).
Many Clouds had a pedigree pointing to GN success, and so does Delta Work, albeit of a different variety which, ironically, is remarkably similar to that of Saint Are, who just failed to reel in Many Clouds in that 2015 GN.
Very unusually, Delta Work shares both the same sire (Network) and the same damsire (Video Rock) as Saint Areand, like the former GN 2nd and 3rd, also has the electric combo of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler present on his damside.
Handles any ground but at his best in the spring (86% [6 from 7] wins or near-misses from mid-Mar to mid-May compared to 47% at other times of the season)
Campaigning exclusively at Grade 1 means smallish chase fields but he's won or near-missed against 10 and 11 rivals and, over hurdles, won the 2018 Pertemps Final (always a scrimmage) against 22.
The XC will make it 4 runs this season (fine), the last 24 days prior. Even allowing for it to be closer than ideal to have a hard race, a win or near-miss against the retiring Tiger would not only upgrade his GN stat-profile to winning calibre but would surely, of course, send his Aintree odds tumbling.
Hi Peanuts As you see it at the moment is there a slim chance that School Boy Hours could scrape in.
Slim chance yes but only slim sadly, and since he's got entries in the Ultima and Kim Muir (was due to go straight to Aintree) trainer seems to be planning a spin before the Irish, 9 days after the GN. SBH was in the #68~70 group (OR142) at weights. Average last in last 4 years has been #69.5 (but the range was 61~76) so was always going to be a doubt but he now needs at least 21 above him to come out and I count about 12 that I think are unlikely to run but there are a few that are said to be ground dependent and we may get a couple of injuries. Even then it's probably not enough. Great shame if he doesn't make it.
Can't resist a tanner e/w at 15/2 on an old buddy of mine, Big River, Kelso course-specialist and soft ground lover, in the Prem Chase in 5 mins, even if 3 miles is a tad short for him. Don't expect much from Dingo on this ground but a safe round should set him up nicely for 9 April with hooves crossed for decent ground then.
EDIT Mission accomplished for Dingo (no change in his 50s for 9 Apr). Way too short a trip for Big River - takes him 2.5 miles to warm up. No matter - bigger fish to fry.
23L 4th of 10 may not look much on paper but it was a very nice return to action after 462 days off by Kildisart today, under a terrific, sympathetic ride from James Bowen. Related to Rathvinden, he’d likely have been on my GN team 2 years ago before the Covid abandonment and ditto this time but for his lay off meaning too late a start to his campaign. A 40/1 shot, I expect him to give a bold run for money for a long way on 9 April but, by my model‘s reckoning and given the rest of his CV, the lack of race miles this season is a stat-killer as regards a financial return. Great shame for a very genuine chaser.
@PeanutsMolloy I watch a lot of racing as you know and look at form etc but fuck me your knowledge and analysis is on a different level.
Cheers @smiffyboy you’re way too kind. I am strictly a one-trick pony but the system’s seen me right for a while now, even if it’s always work in progress. Not Cheltenham bound this year. Used to do it religiously but it's too bloody cold at Prestbury Park in March for someone of my advancing years. Hope all's good with you.
@PeanutsMolloy I watch a lot of racing as you know and look at form etc but fuck me your knowledge and analysis is on a different level.
Cheers @smiffyboy you’re way too kind. I am strictly a one-trick pony but the system’s seen me right for a while now, even if it’s always work in progress. Not Cheltenham bound this year. Used to do it religiously but it's too bloody cold at Prestbury Park in March for someone of my advancing years. Hope all's good with you.
I don't think so, Peanuts - but even if that were true, what a trick!
Another boost for the form of the Thyestes (won impressively in January by Longhouse Poet - one of my e/w GN team) with Diol Ker taking the Leinster National at Naas today off a 2lb higher mark than when 6L 4th behind the Poet at Gowran Park. Franco De Port (2nd in the Thyestes) ran creditably in the conditions off a 5lb higher mark with topweight to finish a slightly unfortunate 4th.
Unusually, the Scottish GN (2 April) precedes the GN this season. Entries out and those entered for both Ayr and Aintree Nationals are:
Lord Du Mesnil Highland Hunter Mighty Thunder Blaklion Domaine De L'isle Go Another One Eclair Surf Fortescue
Some of these (certainly from Blakion down) may have entries for fear of missing the cut at Aintree but some, including also Lord Du Mesnil and Highland Hunter, would much prefer soft ground. If there's meaningful juice at Ayr later this month, it could be that at least 6 of these 8 opt for the Scottish. And with a number of others known to be unlikely GN runners (Galvin, Conflated, Chantry House, Windsor Avenue) and some that may not be certain to take their chance (Melon, Easysland, Run Wild Fred, Lostintranslation, Battleoverdoyen, Santini, Ontheropes, Phoenix Way, Milan Native) while it's still definitely odds against, it's not impossible that School Boy Hours may yet make the cut. He's joint 2nd fav at 8/1 for tomorrow's Kim Muir. A win or near-miss should assure him of top spot of the 3 rated OR142 (i.e. #61 in the list).
But if he has a hard race tomorrow surely that must be a negative for his National chances
Hard race <28 days prior can be a negative but not a chance killer. Hard fought close 3rd in the Pertemps didn't stop Pineau De Re 23 days later in 2014. Depends on the horse and the strength of their profile IMO. In SBH's case it would be net no change stat-score wise, as he'd clear a negative having not run since Dec. Ditto Delta Work this pm. A hard-fought win but similarly competitive wins in the same race for Balthazar King in 2014 and Cause Of Causes in 2017 didn't stop them coming within 5L of winning the GN 24 days later. PP now make DW 12/1 joint 2nd fav for Aintree.
Hi @PeanutsMolloy - would you be worried about weight with Delta Work? Obviously it's becoming a more 'normal' handicap for better quality and up and coming horses, but he's currently 11st 3lbs and above him Conflated, Galvin, Melon, Chantry House are almost certainly coming out and it's not out of the question that one of the other 3 might too; which is going to push him over 11-06. He's a class horse who has won Grade 1s, bu how does his run today leave him in your model - or was it just the value in the price (and potential cash out windfall) that swayed you to back him?
I'm assuming with all the runners that they've got to be able to bear a 5lbs increase, based on Chris's Dream being topweight, so that would put DW on 11.08.
Can he win with it?
Obviously only certain horses are capable of doing so but his CV stacks up nicely with that of Many Clouds who won with 11.09 off the same GN OR160 as DW's:
Comparable same-season 3m+ RPRs: MC's was a career-high166, DW's is 165 but we await yesterday's rating which could be a tad higher (I'm guessing 167)
At his 2019/20 peak, DW notched x3 times chase RPRs168~173 (including his Gold Cup 6L 5th - MC managed a more remote 6th) which is not irrelevant because, by all accounts, the switch to XC from the incessant Grade 1 chases in which he'd become overmatched has reignited his love of the game and he's still only a 10yo.
Fwiw, it's a fair bet that next Tuesday the handicapper will up DW's mark (at one time OR170) to OR162+ to make him at least 2lbs well-in on 9 April, though MC was 5lbs well-in in 2015.
Whereas MC was untried beyond the GC trip, DW's now won his only attempt at further and in a race that's produced same-season x3 GN winners and x2 GN 2nds <5L in the last 15 years (3 of those the same 24 days prior).
Before yesterday, on the back of both CV, his love of spring ground and importantly his Saint Are-like pedigree, he was c. 7th best rated by my model with a minor-placing stat-score. Despite the negative of a hard race (though he looked far from spent at the finish and his record shows a hat-trick of wins in quick succession as a novice), he's cleared a couple of negatives (chase win within last calendar year and in a 15+ field) and is now solidly in winning calibre territory, importantly irrespective of going.
So I'd already nabbed the 66s to add him to my team in the hope that he'd run creditably and see out the trip yesterday, but having laid in to the Betfair win market at 70s I've now got the pleasant decision to make as to whether to cover my stake but still earn a meaty pay day if he wins or hold it for the chance to acquire one of the superyachts on the market right now for Mrs Molloy's and my next voyage round the Caribbean.
I'm assuming with all the runners that they've got to be able to bear a 5lbs increase, based on Chris's Dream being topweight, so that would put DW on 11.08.
Can he win with it?
Obviously only certain horses are capable of doing so but his CV stacks up nicely with that of Many Clouds who won with 11.09 off the same GN OR160 as DW's:
Comparable same-season 3m+ RPRs: MC's was a career-high166, DW's is 165 but we await yesterday's rating which could be a tad higher (I'm guessing 167)
At his 2019/20 peak, DW notched x3 times chase RPRs168~173 (including his Gold Cup 6L 5th - MC managed a more remote 6th) which is not irrelevant because, by all accounts, the switch to XC from the incessant Grade 1 chases in which he'd become overmatched has reignited his love of the game and he's still only a 10yo.
Fwiw, it's a fair bet that next Tuesday the handicapper will up DW's mark (at one time OR170) to OR162+ to make him at least 2lbs well-in on 9 April, though MC was 5lbs well-in in 2016.
Whereas MC was untried beyond the GC trip, DW's now won his only attempt at further and in a race that's produced same-season x3 GN winners and x2 GN 2nds <5L in the last 15 years (3 of those the same 24 days prior).
Before yesterday, on the back of both CV, his love of spring ground and importantly his Saint Are-like pedigree, he was c. 7th best rated by my model with a minor-placing stat-score. Despite the negative of a hard race (though he looked far from spent at the finish and his record shows a hat-trick of wins in quick succession as a novice), he's cleared a couple of negatives (chase win within last calendar year and in a 15+ field) and is now solidly in winning calibre territory, importantly irrespective of going.
So I'd already nabbed the 66s to add him to my team in the hope that he'd run creditably and see out the trip yesterday, but having laid in to the Betfair win market at 70s I've now got the pleasant decision to make as to whether to cover my stake but still earn a meaty pay day if he wins or hold it for the chance to acquire one of the superyachts on the market right now for Mrs Molloy's and my next voyage round the Caribbean.
I'm assuming with all the runners that they've got to be able to bear a 5lbs increase, based on Chris's Dream being topweight, so that would put DW on 11.08.
Can he win with it?
Obviously only certain horses are capable of doing so but his CV stacks up nicely with that of Many Clouds who won with 11.09 off the same GN OR160 as DW's:
Comparable same-season 3m+ RPRs: MC's was a career-high166, DW's is 165 but we await yesterday's rating which could be a tad higher (I'm guessing 167)
At his 2019/20 peak, DW notched x3 times chase RPRs168~173 (including his Gold Cup 6L 5th - MC managed a more remote 6th) which is not irrelevant because, by all accounts, the switch to XC from the incessant Grade 1 chases in which he'd become overmatched has reignited his love of the game and he's still only a 10yo.
Fwiw, it's a fair bet that next Tuesday the handicapper will up DW's mark (at one time OR170) to OR162+ to make him at least 2lbs well-in on 9 April, though MC was 5lbs well-in in 2016.
Whereas MC was untried beyond the GC trip, DW's now won his only attempt at further and in a race that's produced same-season x3 GN winners and x2 GN 2nds <5L in the last 15 years (3 of those the same 24 days prior).
Before yesterday, on the back of both CV, his love of spring ground and importantly his Saint Are-like pedigree, he was c. 7th best rated by my model with a minor-placing stat-score. Despite the negative of a hard race (though he looked far from spent at the finish and his record shows a hat-trick of wins in quick succession as a novice), he's cleared a couple of negatives (chase win within last calendar year and in a 15+ field) and is now solidly in winning calibre territory, importantly irrespective of going.
So I'd already nabbed the 66s to add him to my team in the hope that he'd run creditably and see out the trip yesterday, but having laid in to the Betfair win market at 70s I've now got the pleasant decision to make as to whether to cover my stake but still earn a meaty pay day if he wins or hold it for the chance to acquire one of the superyachts on the market right now for Mrs Molloy's and my next voyage round the Caribbean.
Decisions, decisions
Go for the yacht!
I make you right, though it'd look a bit weedy moored next to yours @bobmunro
Bob (Bet365) is getting serious ahead of Tuesday's 2nd Forfeit Stage and has lengthened odds on a lot of the entries. Still ante-post (not NRNB) & 5 places 1/4 odds but possibly another chance to get on at market-beating prices that may or may not last. e.g. of my model's top-rated: Fiddlerontheroof 33/1 (back to 25s now) Enjoy D'Allen 16/1 (back to 14s now) Delta Work 20/1 (back to 16s now) Longhouse Poet 25/1 (back to 22s now) Dingo Dollar 66/1 (back to 50s) but plenty of others that may tickle your fancy.
EDIT (Sat am) - Bob must have been a tad tired and emotional yesterday afternoon after a rough day. A large whiff of smelling salts this morning and most GN entries are now back in line with the market.
Bet365 is now NRNB and 6 places (but dropped to only 1/5 odds - BOOOOOOO) for the GN
Meanwhile, Delta Work accorded a season-high RPR166 for his XC win. Some stattos place a lot of store on RPR vs GNOR (not me, not least as being liable to revision retrospectively, there's no reliable benchmark for previous winners) and fwiw he's now +6; identical to Many Clouds' retrospective +6.
With Galvin and Conflated both disappointing this week, I'm wondering whether Elliott might have at least one of them line up on 9 April after all; thus keeping the weights unaltered. Would be a boost for the chances particularly of those currently around the 11.00 mark - on my list, that's Delta Work (11.03), Fiddlerontheroof and Longhouse Poet (both 10.12). It includes Any Second Now as well, of course. Tuesday's 2nd Forfeit Stage and the talk around it will be very interesting.
2nd forfeit stage tomorrow. Since Paddy Power no longer offering for Galvin or Conflated, looks like Elliott is scratching both, along with Braeside and Milan Native. So that's a minimum 4lb rise in absolute weights.
EDIT - Racing Post now showing the 4 scratched, plus Cloudy Glen and as expected Jett
Conflicting weather forecasts for the week of the meeting. Dry until then but MetCheck shows minimal rain during the meeting, Accuweather showing an unsettled week with a reasonable amount, mainly on the Thursday. If it's Soft or worse on the day and OR144 makes the cut, Death Duty and Discorama enter the equation - Snow Leopardess (nap on soft), Delta Work, Enjoy D'Allen and Longhouse Poet make up the top 6.
Bob (Bet365) is getting serious ahead of Tuesday's 2nd Forfeit Stage and has lengthened odds on a lot of the entries. Still ante-post (not NRNB) & 5 places 1/4 odds but possibly another chance to get on at market-beating prices that may or may not last. e.g. of my model's top-rated: Fiddlerontheroof 33/1 (back to 25s now) Enjoy D'Allen 16/1 (back to 14s now) Delta Work 20/1 (back to 16s now) Longhouse Poet 25/1 (back to 22s now) Dingo Dollar 66/1 (back to 50s) but plenty of others that may tickle your fancy.
EDIT (Sat am) - Bob must have been a tad tired and emotional yesterday afternoon after a rough day. A large whiff of smelling salts this morning and most GN entries are now back in line with the market.
Now set to carry at least 11.08 (most likely 11.09), I wouldn't assume that Minella Times will turn up to defend his title. His Irish mark is 3lbs lower than he's been allotted for Aintree and jockies can use their claims in the Irish GN (unlike the GN). JP is a traditionalist and he wouldn't re-route to Fairyhouse lightly but it's such a massive ask to carry 19 or 20lbs more (2 non-completes this season) I wouldn't rule it out.
They seem to do whatever it takes to make sure the going is good to soft
Indeed but semantics really do matter here. For welfare reasons, rightly, they will never allow the race again to be run on ground that rides quicker than Good. But Aintree's been acutely sensitive about the going description for the GN ever since the 1990 race run on Firm ground, which attracted much criticism. Obviously, it's been even more sensitive since 2012. So, for PR purposes, the official going will never now be described as anything faster than "Good to Soft".
But what is Aintree's "Good to Soft"?
Judging by the quickest modern GNs on official Good to Soft, it doesn't necessarily have sufficient juice for horses that like cut, even if they have form on GS elsewhere. Plenty of them have found Aintree GS to be too quick.
And, at its quickest, importantly it won't disadvantage Good ground horses.
Why do I say that when the times clearly show that, even at its quickest, they're now run at slower speeds than the "Good" ground GNs of pre-2013?
It's true that the 15.63~16.02 seconds per furlong range of times recorded in the 4 fastest since 2012 (2014, 2015, 2017 and 2019, all on officially GS) is much slower than the 15.00~15.14 spf of 2010~2012. And, of course, the fences were bigger pre-2013, so it's obviously much slower these days.
BUT note the Racing Post's time-based assessment of the ground in each of the 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2019 GNs as "Good" (viewable via the Results section of its website).
In truth, the fact is that the 2010~2012 GNs were all run on effectively Good to Firm ground, despite the official "Good" description. 2011 was the 2nd fastest time since at least 1988, slower only than that officially "Firm" ground GN of 1990 won by Mr Frisk.
The problem now is that Aintree GS covers such a broad spectrum that the only reliable way to try to gauge the true condition of the ground is to time the Topham and Foxhunters on the first 2 days and make a guesstimate as to any effect of rain/watering on the day itself - the races on the Mildmay course on the day can give a clue as to the direction of any change as well of course.
In other words, don't take any notice of the "official" description. Aintree "Good to Soft" can ride anywhere between Good or verging on Soft.
Delta Work now 10/1 clear fav with Bet365, joint-fav (with Any Second Now) with Paddy, Betfair, WH and Fred.
14 scratched today now confirmed:
Conflated Galvin Melon Franco De Port Chantry House Ontheropes Itchy Feet Windsor Avenue Braeside Jett Cloudy Glen Milan Native Back On The Lash Kapcorse
Weights rise 5lbs with Chris's Dream the new topweight.
That makes all those on OR146 (incl Snow Leopardess) definitely in.
School Boy Hours is now joint #49 on current OR with Commodore.
Last year #48 at this stage (Blaklion) was the last to make the line up BUT bear in mind the Scottish GN is (atypically) a week earlier than Aintree this year and there are 8 above SBH in the remaining GN weights that also hold entries for Ayr.
4 of these are GN OR143~144, 2 of whom (Eclair Surf and Fortescue) would definitely prefer it soft. 2 higher up also prefer it soft (Highland Hunter and Lord Du Mesnil, who would run off 3lbs lower at Ayr than Aintree).
Forecast is for dry weather for Ayr until the day before the Scottish GN, but only light rain is forecast then and it's anybody's guess how many of those 8 opt for the Scottish but, importantly, they'll have to decide where to go prior to the next GN scratchings.
Best guess: an agonising wait as a Reserve for SBH.
Comments
Afternoon all.
Quick mention for some likely GN runners having their final preps tomorrow:
DINGO DOLLAR (50/1 for the GN), one of my model's top 6 on stat-ratings on a sound surface, runs in the Listed Premier Chase at Kelso, favoured by Ballabriggs as his GN preps. Soft ground and weights relative to a couple of rivals not in his favour but a safe spin is all the doctor's ordering.
As usual a small field, including possible GN rivals Windsor Avenue and Itchy Feet, neither of which tick enough boxes.
Cloth Cap tops the weights in the 26f Grimthorpe at Donny and he too will have to contend with unsuitable soft ground.
And at Newbury Kildisart has his first start for 462 days. No chance on the stats of being ready to contend on 9 April regardless of how he goes tomorrow.
Looking ahead to The Festival, a strong show could upgrade the GN stat-profile of at least 1 current GN outsider, but as they're 6/1 2nd fav to Tiger for the 30f XC and Bob is being his munificent self once again, I'll mention him now.
DELTA WORK (66/1 for the GN with Bet365, 40s generally elsewhere)
One of those quality 24~26f chasers for which early success as a 5~7 yo locked them into a career exclusively in Grade 1 company. Though still only a 9 yo, he's now clearly over-matched in that arena and, having come down the handicap, looks ripe for his handicap debut.
More than 2 years since his last win but was a keeping-on up The Hill 6th (6L) in the 2020 Gold Cup (rated OR170 at the time) and, until headgear was removed
for his last 2 runs, ran equally creditably in Grade 1 company in 3 of his 6 subsequent runs.
Dropped to a mark of OR160 for the GN, for which Elliott says he's "a definite possibility", he'd carry 11.03 if Galvin or Conflated run and 11.08 if (as likely) they don't. For most runners that would be too much but, as Many Clouds showed in 2015, it is possible for a quality stayer to win a modern GN with a big weight (11.09 in his case off the very same OR160), especially of course if fortune smiles rather than frowns.
By way of further comparison, Many Clouds was also untried beyond the Gold Cup trip (in which he'd finished a more remote 6th) and, prior to his GN win, had just notched a career high chase RPR166. By comparison, at his 2019/20 peak, Delta Work notched x3 times chase RPRs168~173 and, as recently as last October, a 165 when 5L adrift of Galvin at levels; giving him a season's best 3+m RPR vs GNOR of +5 (meeting a crude benchmark for competitive GN weight).
Many Clouds had a pedigree pointing to GN success, and so does Delta Work, albeit of a different variety which, ironically, is remarkably similar to that of Saint Are, who just failed to reel in Many Clouds in that 2015 GN.Very unusually, Delta Work shares both the same sire (Network) and the same damsire (Video Rock) as Saint Are and, like the former GN 2nd and 3rd, also has the electric combo of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler present on his damside.
Handles any ground but at his best in the spring (86% [6 from 7] wins or near-misses from mid-Mar to mid-May compared to 47% at other times of the season)
Campaigning exclusively at Grade 1 means smallish chase fields but he's won or near-missed against 10 and 11 rivals and, over hurdles, won the 2018 Pertemps Final (always a scrimmage) against 22.
The XC will make it 4 runs this season (fine), the last 24 days prior. Even allowing for it to be closer than ideal to have a hard race, a win or near-miss against the retiring Tiger would not only upgrade his GN stat-profile to winning calibre but would surely, of course, send his Aintree odds tumbling.
https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180days.asp?zipcode=Liverpool&locationID=57220&lat=53.4&lon=-3&Event=The+Grand+National&EventDate=10/4/2021&MonthOf=3
showing very dry and fairly sunny end to March and start to April on Merseyside.
If so, great news for Fiddler and especially Dylan and Dingo.
As you see it at the moment is there a slim chance that School Boy Hours could scrape in.
SBH was in the #68~70 group (OR142) at weights. Average last in last 4 years has been #69.5 (but the range was 61~76) so was always going to be a doubt but he now needs at least 21 above him to come out and I count about 12 that I think are unlikely to run but there are a few that are said to be ground dependent and we may get a couple of injuries. Even then it's probably not enough.
Great shame if he doesn't make it.
Confirmation stage Mon 4 Apr
Declarations Thurs 7 Apr
Don't expect much from Dingo on this ground but a safe round should set him up nicely for 9 April with hooves crossed for decent ground then.
EDIT Mission accomplished for Dingo (no change in his 50s for 9 Apr).
Way too short a trip for Big River - takes him 2.5 miles to warm up. No matter - bigger fish to fry.
Related to Rathvinden, he’d likely have been on my GN team 2 years ago before the Covid abandonment and ditto this time but for his lay off meaning too late a start to his campaign.
A 40/1 shot, I expect him to give a bold run for money for a long way on 9 April but, by my model‘s reckoning and given the rest of his CV, the lack of race miles this season is a stat-killer as regards a financial return.
Great shame for a very genuine chaser.
I am strictly a one-trick pony but the system’s seen me right for a while now, even if it’s always work in progress.
Not Cheltenham bound this year. Used to do it religiously but it's too bloody cold at Prestbury Park in March for someone of my advancing years.
Hope all's good with you.
I don't think so, Peanuts - but even if that were true, what a trick!
Franco De Port (2nd in the Thyestes) ran creditably in the conditions off a 5lb higher mark with topweight to finish a slightly unfortunate 4th.
Entries out and those entered for both Ayr and Aintree Nationals are:
Lord Du Mesnil
Highland Hunter
Mighty Thunder
Blaklion
Domaine De L'isle
Go Another One
Eclair Surf
Fortescue
Some of these (certainly from Blakion down) may have entries for fear of missing the cut at Aintree but some, including also Lord Du Mesnil and Highland Hunter, would much prefer soft ground.
If there's meaningful juice at Ayr later this month, it could be that at least 6 of these 8 opt for the Scottish.
And with a number of others known to be unlikely GN runners (Galvin, Conflated, Chantry House, Windsor Avenue) and some that may not be certain to take their chance (Melon, Easysland, Run Wild Fred, Lostintranslation, Battleoverdoyen, Santini, Ontheropes, Phoenix Way, Milan Native) while it's still definitely odds against, it's not impossible that School Boy Hours may yet make the cut.
He's joint 2nd fav at 8/1 for tomorrow's Kim Muir. A win or near-miss should assure him of top spot of the 3 rated OR142 (i.e. #61 in the list).
Depends on the horse and the strength of their profile IMO.
In SBH's case it would be net no change stat-score wise, as he'd clear a negative having not run since Dec.
Ditto Delta Work this pm. A hard-fought win but similarly competitive wins in the same race for Balthazar King in 2014 and Cause Of Causes in 2017 didn't stop them coming within 5L of winning the GN 24 days later.
PP now make DW 12/1 joint 2nd fav for Aintree.
I'm assuming with all the runners that they've got to be able to bear a 5lbs increase, based on Chris's Dream being topweight, so that would put DW on 11.08.
Can he win with it?
Obviously only certain horses are capable of doing so but his CV stacks up nicely with that of Many Clouds who won with 11.09 off the same GN OR160 as DW's:
- Comparable same-season 3m+ RPRs: MC's was a career-high166, DW's is 165 but we await yesterday's rating which could be a tad higher (I'm guessing 167)
- At his 2019/20 peak, DW notched x3 times chase RPRs168~173 (including his Gold Cup 6L 5th - MC managed a more remote 6th) which is not irrelevant because, by all accounts, the switch to XC from the incessant Grade 1 chases in which he'd become overmatched has reignited his love of the game and he's still only a 10yo.
- Fwiw, it's a fair bet that next Tuesday the handicapper will up DW's mark (at one time OR170) to OR162+ to make him at least 2lbs well-in on 9 April, though MC was 5lbs well-in in 2015.
- Whereas MC was untried beyond the GC trip, DW's now won his only attempt at further and in a race that's produced same-season x3 GN winners and x2 GN 2nds <5L in the last 15 years (3 of those the same 24 days prior).
Before yesterday, on the back of both CV, his love of spring ground and importantly his Saint Are-like pedigree, he was c. 7th best rated by my model with a minor-placing stat-score.Despite the negative of a hard race (though he looked far from spent at the finish and his record shows a hat-trick of wins in quick succession as a novice), he's cleared a couple of negatives (chase win within last calendar year and in a 15+ field) and is now solidly in winning calibre territory, importantly irrespective of going.
So I'd already nabbed the 66s to add him to my team in the hope that he'd run creditably and see out the trip yesterday, but having laid in to the Betfair win market at 70s I've now got the pleasant decision to make as to whether to cover my stake but still earn a meaty pay day if he wins or hold it for the chance to acquire one of the superyachts on the market right now for Mrs Molloy's and my next voyage round the Caribbean.
Decisions, decisions
EDIT - DW is now top-price 16/1
Go for the yacht!
Still ante-post (not NRNB) & 5 places 1/4 odds but possibly another chance to get on at market-beating prices that may or may not last.
e.g. of my model's top-rated:
Fiddlerontheroof 33/1 (back to 25s now)
Enjoy D'Allen 16/1 (back to 14s now)
Delta Work 20/1 (back to 16s now)
Longhouse Poet 25/1 (back to 22s now)
Dingo Dollar 66/1 (back to 50s)
but plenty of others that may tickle your fancy.
EDIT (Sat am) - Bob must have been a tad tired and emotional yesterday afternoon after a rough day. A large whiff of smelling salts this morning and most GN entries are now back in line with the market.
HOLD THE FRONT PAGE
Bet365 is now NRNB and 6 places (but dropped to only 1/5 odds - BOOOOOOO) for the GN
Meanwhile, Delta Work accorded a season-high RPR166 for his XC win.
Some stattos place a lot of store on RPR vs GNOR (not me, not least as being liable to revision retrospectively, there's no reliable benchmark for previous winners) and fwiw he's now +6; identical to Many Clouds' retrospective +6.
With Galvin and Conflated both disappointing this week, I'm wondering whether Elliott might have at least one of them line up on 9 April after all; thus keeping the weights unaltered.
Would be a boost for the chances particularly of those currently around the 11.00 mark - on my list, that's Delta Work (11.03), Fiddlerontheroof and Longhouse Poet (both 10.12). It includes Any Second Now as well, of course.
Tuesday's 2nd Forfeit Stage and the talk around it will be very interesting.
Since Paddy Power no longer offering for Galvin or Conflated, looks like Elliott is scratching both, along with Braeside and Milan Native.
So that's a minimum 4lb rise in absolute weights.
EDIT - Racing Post now showing the 4 scratched, plus Cloudy Glen and as expected Jett
Conflicting weather forecasts for the week of the meeting. Dry until then but MetCheck shows minimal rain during the meeting, Accuweather showing an unsettled week with a reasonable amount, mainly on the Thursday.
If it's Soft or worse on the day and OR144 makes the cut, Death Duty and Discorama enter the equation - Snow Leopardess (nap on soft), Delta Work, Enjoy D'Allen and Longhouse Poet make up the top 6.
His Irish mark is 3lbs lower than he's been allotted for Aintree and jockies can use their claims in the Irish GN (unlike the GN).
JP is a traditionalist and he wouldn't re-route to Fairyhouse lightly but it's such a massive ask to carry 19 or 20lbs more (2 non-completes this season) I wouldn't rule it out.
For welfare reasons, rightly, they will never allow the race again to be run on ground that rides quicker than Good.
But Aintree's been acutely sensitive about the going description for the GN ever since the 1990 race run on Firm ground, which attracted much criticism. Obviously, it's been even more sensitive since 2012. So, for PR purposes, the official going will never now be described as anything faster than "Good to Soft".
But what is Aintree's "Good to Soft"?
Judging by the quickest modern GNs on official Good to Soft, it doesn't necessarily have sufficient juice for horses that like cut, even if they have form on GS elsewhere. Plenty of them have found Aintree GS to be too quick.
And, at its quickest, importantly it won't disadvantage Good ground horses.
Why do I say that when the times clearly show that, even at its quickest, they're now run at slower speeds than the "Good" ground GNs of pre-2013?
It's true that the 15.63~16.02 seconds per furlong range of times recorded in the 4 fastest since 2012 (2014, 2015, 2017 and 2019, all on officially GS) is much slower than the 15.00~15.14 spf of 2010~2012. And, of course, the fences were bigger pre-2013, so it's obviously much slower these days.
BUT note the Racing Post's time-based assessment of the ground in each of the 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2019 GNs as "Good" (viewable via the Results section of its website).
In truth, the fact is that the 2010~2012 GNs were all run on effectively Good to Firm ground, despite the official "Good" description. 2011 was the 2nd fastest time since at least 1988, slower only than that officially "Firm" ground GN of 1990 won by Mr Frisk.
The problem now is that Aintree GS covers such a broad spectrum that the only reliable way to try to gauge the true condition of the ground is to time the Topham and Foxhunters on the first 2 days and make a guesstimate as to any effect of rain/watering on the day itself - the races on the Mildmay course on the day can give a clue as to the direction of any change as well of course.
In other words, don't take any notice of the "official" description. Aintree "Good to Soft" can ride anywhere between Good or verging on Soft.
14 scratched today now confirmed:
Conflated
Galvin
Melon
Franco De Port
Chantry House
Ontheropes
Itchy Feet
Windsor Avenue
Braeside
Jett
Cloudy Glen
Milan Native
Back On The Lash
Kapcorse
Weights rise 5lbs with Chris's Dream the new topweight.
That makes all those on OR146 (incl Snow Leopardess) definitely in.
School Boy Hours is now joint #49 on current OR with Commodore.
Last year #48 at this stage (Blaklion) was the last to make the line up BUT bear in mind the Scottish GN is (atypically) a week earlier than Aintree this year and there are 8 above SBH in the remaining GN weights that also hold entries for Ayr.
4 of these are GN OR143~144, 2 of whom (Eclair Surf and Fortescue) would definitely prefer it soft.
2 higher up also prefer it soft (Highland Hunter and Lord Du Mesnil, who would run off 3lbs lower at Ayr than Aintree).
Forecast is for dry weather for Ayr until the day before the Scottish GN, but only light rain is forecast then and it's anybody's guess how many of those 8 opt for the Scottish but, importantly, they'll have to decide where to go prior to the next GN scratchings.
Best guess: an agonising wait as a Reserve for SBH.