And an immediate tip from James Hill in the RP (is he a Lifer?)
I've given the 100s a battering but Bob's generosity is unbowed. 66s top price elsewhere and last traded at 55 on Betfair Exchange. For the full skinny on his stat-claims, see post on p1. Take advantage while you can!
I can't remember the last time a reigning Irish Grand National winner was 100-1 for Aintree, but you can still get a three-figure price for Freewheelin Dylan, which is surprising when you consider the second from that race, Run Wild Fred, is now rated as high as 158 and is currently one of the favourites.
Freewheelin Dylan has shown little in two starts this winter, although the jockey should never have come off in the cross-country chase at Cheltenham in November. Generally his jumping is excellent, and that Irish National win wasn't a fluke. James Hill, tipster
And an immediate tip from James Hill in the RP (is he a Lifer?)
I've given the 100s a battering but Bob's generosity is unbowed. 66s top price elsewhere and last traded at 55 on Betfair Exchange. For the full skinny on his stat-claims, see post on p1. Take advantage while you can!
I can't remember the last time a reigning Irish Grand National winner was 100-1 for Aintree, but you can still get a three-figure price for Freewheelin Dylan, which is surprising when you consider the second from that race, Run Wild Fred, is now rated as high as 158 and is currently one of the favourites.
Freewheelin Dylan has shown little in two starts this winter, although the jockey should never have come off in the cross-country chase at Cheltenham in November. Generally his jumping is excellent, and that Irish National win wasn't a fluke. James Hill, tipster
Only run the slide rule over about half of the entries so far but there's already quite a few, new Irish contenders with very likeable stat-profiles. However, as always, relative and absolute weights are going to be crucial.
Aside from the possibility of an Irish premium when the GN marks are framed on 15 Feb, there's the potential for a significant weight hike if Galvin (OR167) and, say, Chris's Dream (160) is topweight.
That would give Minella Times 11.09 and Any Second Now 11.07 to carry (not winnable-with given either's profile IMHO) and put a lot of otherwise lively chances in or over the critical 10.12~11.02 range.
So some tricky betting tactics to figure out since all may not be clear about topweight until after the Gold Cup.
Aside from Freewheelin Dylan, flashing away on the radar screen already are:
Mount Ida (wants to be <11.00)
Longhouse Poet (put up 9lbs to 154 for his impressive Theystes win but that might not stop him if he carries <11.02)
Enjoy D'Allen (<10.12)
Braeside (<10.10)
School Boy Hours (at Irish OR142 touch and go whether he'd make the cut so an extra 1lb on 15th Feb would be welcome)
From British yards, the brightest flashers are currently:
Small but interesting and competitive field for the Edinburgh National today at Musselburgh on a decent surface, including 2 of the home-trained GN entries that are flashing away on my stats' radar screen for April:
Mighty Thunder (as high as 50s with some bookies for April), with the GN his stated target is looking for back-to-back wins in this and to get off the mark at the 3rd attempt this season, after taking the Scottish National impressively in April. Though he won this on desperate ground a year ago, back on a flat track and with a sound surface I'm expecting Mighty Thunder to go a lot better than he did at Chepstow, and
Highland Hunter (generally 40s),whose having an excellent season already and who, on Midlands National form in March, is the better off of the two at the weights and is fav to take this.
It's an open race however and they won't have it their own way. With April's weights not framed until 15 Feb, it would suit both of them to near-miss rather than incur the further hike in OR that would accompany a win today, especially if (as appears likely) the GN topweight runs off only around OR160. Though, of the 2, by my reckoning Mighty Thunder's stats are a tad more resilient to a moderate rise in mark. A fascinating watch. Enjoy.
And one of the Irish-trained entries with good-looking stats, Enjoy D'Allen, having a spin in a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown today. A safe round will do nicely but he's got an exceptionally low hurdles mark and could well be in the mix.
Disappointing run from Mighty Thunder who was never travelling convincingly and stopped quickly when business got serious despite having hit the front (possibly a wind-issue?). He's got good stats for a GN but that's now 3 strikes this term and, unless he can show some creditable form before April, he won't be on my short list sadly. Highland Hunter went nicely but ran out of gas (maybe too soon after Chepstow) still ticks a lot of boxes but his best GN chance would be on soft. Job done for Enjoy D'Allen though he's an enigma over hurdles, for which his OR's a full 33lbs below his Chase mark. No lack of intent but was off the bridle from a long way out yesterday but, once again, showed his genuineness hanging in to finish 10L 5th. Very much still flashing away brightly on the radar screen for April and happy to have snaffled the 50s (40 best now), though weight will be key.
Very interesting Grade A over 21f at Leopardstown today. Minella Times was never put in the race and it looked like a safe spin was the order of the day after a fall on his seasonal debut. Aside from no form this season, he'll have too much weight in April to have a serious chance of back to back wins.
What interested me most was that both the winner Birchdale and close second Foxy Jacks frank the form of both December's Paddy Power Handicap and the recent Thyestes. Birchdale was notably 4lb out of the handicap today, so effectively a 4lbs higher mark than when 8.5L 6th to PP winner School Boy Hours (Enjoy D’Allen close 3rd). Enjoy D’Allen is very much on the shortlist but so too is School Boy Hours, for whom Noel Meade has confirmed Aintree is his #1 target. Though OR142 doesn't guarantee a run, this year it looks like there's a decent chance he'll make the cut, especially if the handicapper applies a premium to the Irish marks (we find out 15 Feb). He'll have no further run before Aintree and, while that isn't ideal from a stats-perspective, he still has an overall winning GN stat-profile that's resilient to any likely weight rise and a nice pedigree, with Wild Risk in the right places and hailing from the family of the great stayer of the late 1980s Bonanza Boy. Barring mishap he'll very likely be on my team. Currently antepost 33/1.
Foxy Jacks (9L 7th in the PP) was well beaten in a particularly strong renewal of the Thyestes 10 days ago and the winner of that, Longhouse Poet (also 33s)would also be of serious consideration in April depending on how the weights pan out.
Perplexing decision to run Snow Leopardess today, just 2 days before the GN weights are framed. It is guesswork I know but, looking at the entries and likely scratches this year, I'd be very surprised if the cut isn't well below her mark this morning of 145. And, as a winner over the GN fences, she'd possibly get an extra lb anyway from the handicapper. Yet, seemingly, Charlie Longsdon thought otherwise and she's just romped to victory, 14L clear of a 142-rated rival, in a 3m mares chase in the Exeter mud - virtually guaranteeing a mark of 150+ and 11.00+ to carry if, as likely, the GN topweight runs off c.160. She's promptly been cut to 16s from 25s for the GN and she's a very likeable mare and, especially in the event of rain, would likely have been on my team off 145. But my model suggests that 11.00+ tips the scales meaningfully against her for 9 April. Betting aside, I'd love to be wrong as we haven't had a mare win it for 71 years and it would be a great story (a grey to boot) but I fear Charlie Longsdon may be one of those British trainers (King, Hobbs, Henderson, Tizzard readily spring to mind as others) that seem to go to extremes not to win a Grand National.
Half an hour later saw Elegant Escape PU in the heavy ground. Maybe retirement beckons for him now (or should do); it'll be touch and go whether he hangs on to a mark to earn a GN start, if connections still had that aspiration.
GN weights and a major break for Snow Leopardess, put up just 1lb to 146 for that romp home on Sunday. What's more Chris's Dream (the likely default topweight if Galvin [will "only run if something happened in the GC"], Conflated [sounds a definite non-starter] and Melon are scratched), being allotted 162, means a probable worst case 10.08 to carry for Longsdon's grey mare (10.07 if Melon lines up). Still very much a player on her stats and a dead cert to go off favourite surely once the housewives put their money down. Freewheelin Dylan given 147; guaranteed a run and a very workable weight to carry (10.04~10.09). Still available at 100s from Bob and an each-way steal IMHO if he gets decent ground. Time to get busy with the slide rule. More anon.
First thing to say is that there has been quite a range in the point at which the cut has come in relation to the order on weights day since 2015, when the transition to the "new normal" of a "modern GN" might be said to have been more or less completed.
range of lowest OR: 139~145
range of lowest weights: 10.02~10.06
range of OR from topweight to bottomweight: 18~22lbs
rank in weights' list when weights unveiled: 58~76 (ave 67.3)
Taking the average, we may expect the cut to be at 143 but, as that would imply only 17lbs difference to probable topweight of 160, I'm still hopeful that School Boy Hours (#69~71), who's 33/1 and ticks a lot of boxes, may make it off 142 (had hoped he'd get the extra lb, like many of the other Irish-trained runners but hey ho).
The current best candidates (from the 72 down to OR141) on their stats, according to my model, and from a quick and dirty run of the slide rule over the actual marks (importantly assuming decent ground and that Melon is topweight off 163), in weight order:
Longhouse Poet (weight-sensitive but the best of the "quality" Irish contenders, with potential to take it with 11.00+)
Fiddlerontheroof (weight-sensitive but ticks the key pedigree boxes)
Farclas (weight-sensitive, comfortably the best chance of the returning frame-makers IMHO [put in the best GN run by a 7yo since Saint Are in 2013] and sure to put in a bold show but recent form line via Run Wild Fred gives him a fair bit to find on several, including Longhouse Poet - very likeable sort but others preferred at the weights)
Enjoy D'Allen (heads straight to Aintree - super genuine and a pedigree reminiscent of Saint Are's)
Caribean Boy (another to tick the optimal pedigree boxes but winning stat-profile dependent on strong run at Ascot or Kempton)
Dingo Dollar (jumping a concern [didn't go great in Grand Sefton on soft 15 months ago] but loves spring ground and, now in Sandy Thomson's hands rather than Alan King's, he may be a dark house and e/w value at 50s)
Braeside (but will run in Nat Hunt Chase at The Festival - hard race would be a concern. Softer ground preferred but the PP Hdcp was run at a fair clip)
Freewheelin Dylan (said plenty already. Would definitely not want soft. Entered in the XC at The Festival. A safe spin would be nice stats-wise but not essential. Biggest weakness may be the jockey)
Cloth Cap (on paper has the stats but, aside from less than stellar form this season, there's a risk he'll be adversely affected mentally returning to the track at which he had a breathing issue last year - won't be carrying my shillings)
Snow Leopardess (near-perfect pedigree [same Damsire, Persian Bold, as Rule The World]. The softer ground the better her chance but travels OK on better ground)
School Boy Hours (may not make the cut)
6 of these Irish-trained, 5 for the home team. Maybe some additions, deletions over the next month as final preps are run. For what it's worth, I'm currently on each-way antepost with Bob's Mob (5 places 1/4 odds):
Freewheelin Dylan at 100s Enjoy D'Allen at 50s (now 25s for 5 places) Snow Leopardess at 20s (now 16s) Fiddlerontheroof at 33s (now 25s) School Boy Hours at 33s
PS The list could change dramatically if it came up Soft - Discorama, Highland Hunter, Lord Du Mesnil, Eclair Surf and possibly even Blaklion most likely to come into the reckoning (Dylan, Dingo and Cloth Cap definitely off that list).
I've just chucked a small ante post bet on Santini at 50/1.
As for Snow Leopardess, what do I know, they've got the prize money with basically no impact on weights!
A head scratcher. Maybe Longsdon got the nod from the handicapper that he wouldn't put too much store on the mares only race but does look very odd, as Chilli Filli who was 14L adrift keeps her mark of 142. So just 4lbs between them? Looks like the BHA's keen on a home win.
PS On reflection, Chilli Fill's mark is probably not due for adjustment until next Tuesday, seeing as the race was on Sunday. Maybe she'll get a drop after all.
Racing Post seems to have decided that Braeside won't head to Aintree this year - I didn't interpret that definitively from Elliott's comments but it certainly would be unusual to head on from the Nat Hunt Chase to the GN a few weeks later. Barring a mishap, he's likely to be there or thereabouts at Cheltenham in what is without fail a gruelling contest. That said, according to Racing TV's conversations with Elliott: "The intention is to run him if he gets in. He will run in the National Hunt Chase and then go to the National. He made a mistake in Thyestes .... that just put him out of the race a little bit. He has been really good since then. He has already won the Cork National on heavy ground and he stays very well but he ran well in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown on good ground."
Please can we all just take a moment to sympathise with Michael O'Leary has been victimised yet again given the weight allotted to Tiger Roll. Quite rightly he has withdrawn this superstar of a horse from the National because of the "idiotic" handicapper.
If only he could rely on one or two of his other dozen entries to be better handicapped than Tiger Roll.
First thing to say is that there has been quite a range in the point at which the cut has come in relation to the order on weights day since 2015, when the transition to the "new normal" of a "modern GN" might be said to have been more or less completed.
range of lowest OR: 139~145
range of lowest weights: 10.02~10.06
range of OR from topweight to bottomweight: 18~22lbs
rank in weights' list when weights unveiled: 58~76 (ave 67.3)
Taking the average, we may expect the cut to be at 143 but, as that would imply only 17lbs difference to probable topweight of 160, I'm still hopeful that School Boy Hours (#69~71), who's 33/1 and ticks a lot of boxes, may make it off 142 (had hoped he'd get the extra lb, like many of the other Irish-trained runners but hey ho).
The current best candidates (from the 72 down to OR141) on their stats, according to my model, and from a quick and dirty run of the slide rule over the actual marks (importantly assuming decent ground and that Melon is topweight off 163), in weight order:
Longhouse Poet (weight-sensitive)
Fiddlerontheroof (weight-sensitive)
Farclas (weight-sensitive, comfortably the best chance of the returning frame-makers IMHO)
Enjoy D'Allen (heads straight to Aintree)
Caribean Boy (stats dependent on strong run at Ascot or Kempton)
Dingo Dollar (jumping a meaningful concern but loves spring ground and, now in Sandy Thomson's hands rather than Alan King's, he may have a shout)
Braeside (but will run in Nat Hunt Chase at The Festival - hard race would be a concern. Softer ground preferred but the PP Hdcp was run at a fair clip)
Freewheelin Dylan (would definitely not want soft. Entered in the XC at The Festival. A safe spin would be nice stats-wise but not essential)
Cloth Cap (could be adversely affected mentally returning to the fences after his breathing issue last year and must have good ground)
Snow Leopardess (the softer ground the better her chance but travels OK on better ground)
School Boy Hours (may not make the cut)
6 of these Irish-trained, 5 for the home team. Maybe some additions, deletions over the next month as final preps are run. For what it's worth, I'm currently on each-way antepost with Bob's Mob (5 places 1/4 odds):
Freewheelin Dylan at 100s Enjoy D'Allen at 50s (now 25s for 5 places) Snow Leopardess at 20s (now 16s) Fiddlerontheroof at 33s (now 25s) School Boy Hours at 33s
PS The list could change dramatically if it came up Soft - Discorama, Highland Hunter, Lord Du Mesnil, Eclair Surf and possibly even Blaklion most likely to come into the reckoning (Dylan, Dingo and Cloth Cap definitely off that list).
Please can we all just take a moment to sympathise with Michael O'Leary has been victimised yet again given the weight allotted to Tiger Roll. Quite rightly he has withdrawn this superstar of a horse from the National because of the "idiotic" handicapper.
If only he could rely on one or two of his other dozen entries to be better handicapped than Tiger Roll.
O'Leary - an arsehole of the very highest order (and that's me being polite).
I echo Bobs kind words about O’Leary, he’s an absolute knobhead. I do however think he’s got a point on this occasion. When I saw what the handicapper had given him I did think it was 2/3 lbs high.
I echo Bobs kind words about O’Leary, he’s an absolute knobhead. I do however think he’s got a point on this occasion. When I saw what the handicapper had given him I did think it was 2/3 lbs high.
I agree with you @cafc1990 and @bobmunro and @Addick Addict But I reckon JP and de Bromhead have a much more justifiable complaint about Minella Times' mark, which at 161 is higher still that was indicated after he won last year, despite a (not unreasonably quiet but) very ordinary season. To have him 15lbs higher for his win is completely unjustifiable (even in relation to other returnees and they're hardly favourably treated IMHO). It screws any chance of a competitive run, let alone back-to-back wins, and in his case I think that, in the interest of the horse, JP would be justified in pulling him out. I don't think he's shown anything like the form necessary to take a chance with virtually topweight. I think this handicapper's got different but equally odd views to his predecessor. Just my view.
Galvin is an interesting one who's won over a long distance (3m6f) as well as over most distances between 2m and 3m .. however he's allocated a lot of weight and is my fancy, for what it's worth, for THE Gold CUP
Galvin is an interesting one who's won over a long distance (3m6f) as well as over most distances between 2m and 3m .. however he's allocated a lot of weight and is my fancy, for what it's worth, for THE Gold CUP
Totally agree. I'd probably have him fav for the Gold Cup.
Ok folks, time to get serious, not least because one of the candidates with a winning stat-profile and the best-possible "fit" with the pedigrees of the last 5 GN winners is going to run this Saturday. And though it's possible another GN entry blasts into the picture to rival him (Caribean Boy, opposing on Saturday, is such a candidate), as things currently stand, just a safe spin in the Listed 3m chase at Ascot (currently 4/1 fav) will suffice to make him my NAP for 9 April (assuming decent ground) but he's unlikely to be ridden that way and, obviously, a strong run could shorten his current price materially.
And, hold on to your hats, much though I'd love to see Dylan score at 100/1 (and he could, with a slice of fair fortune), my model's indicating he'll more likely near-miss and instead, this year, it'll be one for the Home Team (the first for 5 years):
FIDDLERONTHEROOF (25/1), whose profile and campaign to date is very reminiscent of Many Clouds but with an extra giddy-up to his pedigree.
2nd season chaser, like every first-time GN winner since 2014, the 8 year-old's had the GN as his target all season and started his campaign (like MC) by winning the Listed 20f chase at Carlisle in November before notching his best chase RPR to date, notably over the furthest trip yet attempted, in the 26f Hennessy (aka Ladbroke Trophy) 3 weeks later.
Run at a left-handed galloping track, presenting one of the stiffest jumping tests in National Hunt, carrying >11.00 to go close in Newbury's Hennessy (with its typically large field) has been a decent GN pointer for many a year (Comply Or Die, State Of Play as well as Many Clouds). Fiddler might have won but for being hampered by his fallen stablemate at the 4th last and, though the jury's out on the form of the race (winner's been poor but others have run creditably, suggesting the finish took its toll), his strong-finishing 0.5L 2nd earned him an RPR164. Notably, that's 9lbs higher than his GN mark OR155 (crude benchmark for GN success is 5+) and 2lbs higher than Many Clouds RPR162 for his Hennessy win in 2014 (MC's GN winning mark was 160 and his weight 11.09). Travelling and jumping nicely on decent ground under 11.04 that day (will carry 10.12~11.03 on 9 Apr) bodes well for a GN on similar going but soft ground would be a concern.
With one prep, he'll have 10 chases under his belt (same as MC) and, though not essential to his GN chance, with a strong run on Sat he'd match MC's 70% win or near-miss record to date. In fact, Fiddler's never been out of the first 3 home.
That includes 7L 2nd to Monkfish in the Grade 1 Novice 3m chase at last year's Cheltenham Festival and, even allowing for that margin to have slightly flattered him, the collateral form from that, by my reckoning, makes Fiddler nicely-weighted relative to the best of the Irish competition.
With Saturday's spin, he'll have had 3 runs in the season, the last 49 days prior: in the sweet spot.
Damside Pedigree is spot on for a "modern GN" winner
Damsire is Arc winner Montjeu, whose flat progeny include multiple Group 1 winners at 12~20f (including Tiger Roll's sire Authorized) and 2nd damsire Midyan has damsired a G1 winner at 10f (RPR120). 7 of the 8 winners since 2013 have 1st damsire with such quality flat progeny and at least 1 other damsire likewise or having damsired a GN winner or runner-up (only 15% of GN fields ticked this box).
Not only has Wild Risk on his damside (all of the last 8 winners and all 6 finishing up to 5L of them shared this, as did c 50% of all GN runners since 2013) but it's in combination with Bold Ruler (sire of Secretariat), who's seen on the damside of only 16% of GN runners but in every winner of the last 5 GNs (i.e. Rule The World, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll and Minella Times). Saint Are, Magic Of Light and Rathvinden also had this Wild Risk and Bold Ruler combo on their damsides, which only 8% of GN fields shared.
This is the pedigree giddy-up that Many Clouds didn't possess (notably Saint Are was only 2L behind him that day in 2015) and, of this year's likely runners, only Minella Times, Caribean Boy and (with a twist) Snow Leopardess share all of these pedigree attributes
Unlikely though it is, Galvin running would be an meaningful advantage for Fiddler in keeping his weight at 10.12 but the winning calibre of his stat-profile is (just about) resilient to carrying 11.03, should Chris's Dream be topweight on the day. In any event, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune typical to a GN, I seldom back win only in a GN and, though I was fortunate to grab the 33s, I still regard him as excellent e/w value with Bet365 (5 & 1/4 odds) at 25s. Gonna be glued to the box at 2.25pm Saturday, also to watch Caribean Boy (more anon).
Comments
107 entered for 9 April (53 Irish-trained).
Weights unveiled 15 Feb.
Achille (FR) 12 Mrs Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
Agusta Gold (IRE) 9 Dr SP Fitzgerald Willie Mullins Ireland
Alpha des Obeaux (FR) 12 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Anibale Fly (FR) 12 Mr John P McManus Tony Martin Ireland
Any Second Now (IRE) 10 Mr John P McManus Ted Walsh Ireland
Assemble 8 Gigginstown House Stud Joseph O'Brien Ireland
Back On The Lash 8 Mr M Boothright Martin Keighley
Battleoverdoyen (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Blaklion 13 Darren & Annaley Yates Dan Skelton
Brace Yourself (IRE) 9 Mrs Patricia Hunt Noel Meade Ireland
Braeside (IRE) 8 KTDA Racing Gordon Elliott Ireland
Brahma Bull (IRE) 11 Mrs S. Ricci Willie Mullins Ireland
Burrows Saint (FR) 9 Mrs S. Ricci Willie Mullins Ireland
Caribean Boy (FR) 8 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson
Chantry House (IRE) 8 Mr John P McManus Nicky Henderson
Chatham Street Lad (IRE) 10 Mr V Healy Michael Winters Ireland
Chris's Dream (IRE) 10 Robcour Henry de Bromhead Ireland
Class Conti (FR) 10 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede Willie Mullins Ireland
Cloth Cap (IRE) 10 Exors of the late Mr Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
Cloudy Glen (IRE) 9 Exors of the late Mr Trevor Hemmings Venetia Williams
Coko Beach (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Commodore (FR) 10 Mrs C Watson & Mrs S Graham Venetia Williams
Conflated (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Court Maid (IRE) 9 Rory F Larkin Thomas Mullins Ireland
Death Duty (IRE) 11 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Defi Bleu (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Definite Plan (IRE) 10 Mr James J Reilly Gordon Elliott Ireland
Deise Aba (IRE) 9 Exors of the late Mr Trevor Hemmings Philip Hobbs
Delta Work (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
De Rasher Counter 10 Makin' Bacon Partnership Emma Lavelle
Didero Vallis (FR) 9 Normans, Ramsay, Tufnell & Bishop Venetia Williams
Dingo Dollar (IRE) 10 M Warren J Holmes R Kidner & J Wright Sandy Thomson
Discorama (FR) 9 Andrew Gemmell/Thomas Friel Paul Nolan Ireland
Discordantly (IRE) 8 The Odd Fellows Partnership Jessica Harrington Ireland
Domaine de L'Isle (FR) 9 12 Oaks Racing and Mr Ian Hutchins Sean Curran
Double Shuffle (IRE) 12 Crossed Fingers Partnership Tom George
Easysland (FR) 8 Mr John P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
Eclair Surf (FR) 8 Dominic Burke & Tim Syder Emma Lavelle
Eklat de Rire (FR) 8 Mr P Davies Henry de Bromhead Ireland
Elegant Escape (IRE) 10 Mr JP Romans Colin Tizzard
El Presente 9 Davies Pilkington Yarborough Brooke Kim Bailey
Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 8 Railway View Stud Partnership Ciaran Murphy Ireland
Escaria Ten (FR) 8 McNeill Family Gordon Elliott Ireland
Eurobot 8 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade Ireland
Farclas (FR) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Fiddlerontheroof (IRE) 8 Taylor, Burley & O'Dwyer Colin Tizzard
Fortescue 8 Mr TFF Nixon Henry Daly
Franco de Port (FR) 7 Bruton Street V Willie Mullins Ireland
Freewheelin Dylan (IRE) 10 Miss Sheila Mangan Dermot Anthony McLoughlin Ireland
Full Back (FR) 7 Mr Ashley Head Gary Moore
Galvin (IRE) 8 Mr R. A. Bartlett Gordon Elliott Ireland
Go Another One (IRE) 10 Ms Caroline Ahearn John McConnell Ireland
Good Boy Bobby (IRE) 9 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Nigel Twiston-Davies
Gwencily Berbas (FR) 11 Mr Aidan J Ryan David Pipe
Highland Hunter (IRE) 9 Mr T Barr Paul Nicholls
Hill Sixteen 9 J Fyffe & S Townshend Sandy Thomson
Itchy Feet (FR) 8 Kate & Andrew Brooks Olly Murphy
Jerrysback (IRE) 10 Mr John P McManus Philip Hobbs
Jett (IRE) 11 Mr Robert Waley-Cohen Olly Murphy
Kalooki (GER) 8 Mr Andrew L Cohen Philip Hobbs
Kapcorse (FR) 9 Mr John P McManus Paul Nicholls
Kauto Riko (FR) 11 Mr and Mrs J Dale and Partners Tom Gretton
Kildisart (IRE) 10 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Ben Pauling
Larry 9 Galloping On The South Downs Partnership Gary Moore
Longhouse Poet (IRE) 8 Sean & Bernardine Mulryan Martin Brassil Ireland
Lord du Mesnil (FR) 9 Mr Paul Porter & Mike & Mandy Smith Richard Hobson
Lostintranslation (IRE) 10 Taylor & O'Dwyer Colin Tizzard
Mac Tottie 9 Steve & Jackie Fleetham Peter Bowen
Melon 10 Mrs J Donnelly Willie Mullins Ireland
Mighty Thunder 9 Allson Sparkle Ltd Lucinda Russell
Milan Native (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Minella Times (IRE) 9 Mr John P McManus Henry de Bromhead Ireland
Mister Fogpatches (IRE) 8 Mr JB Fahy Pat Fahy Ireland
Mister Whitaker (IRE) 10 Mr TG Leslie Donald McCain
Mortal (IRE) 10 Mr A. Dunlop Gordon Elliott Ireland
Mount Ida (IRE) 8 KTDA Racing Gordon Elliott Ireland
Noble Yeats (IRE) 7 Mr P Byrne Emmet Mullins Ireland
Off You Go (IRE) 9 Mr John P McManus Charles Byrnes Ireland
Ontheropes (IRE) 8 Cheveley Park Stud Willie Mullins Ireland
Phoenix Way (IRE) 9 Mr John P McManus Harry Fry
Pink Eyed Pedro 11 Mr David Brace David Brace
Plan of Attack (IRE) 9 Mr A. Halsall Henry de Bromhead Ireland
Poker Party (FR) 10 Robcour Henry de Bromhead Ireland
Potters Corner (IRE) 12 All Stars Sports, Davies & Racehorse Club Christian Williams
Robin des Foret (IRE) 12 The 119 Partnership John McConnell Ireland
Roi Mage (FR) 10 Mr D. G. Pryde Patrick Griffin Ireland
Romain de Senam (FR) 10 Judith Wilson David Pipe
Run Wild Fred (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Sam Brown 10 Mr T. C. Frost Anthony Honeyball
Samcro (IRE) 10 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Santini 10 Mr & Mrs R Kelvin-Hughes Polly Gundry
School Boy Hours (IRE) 9 Mr John P McManus Noel Meade Ireland
Scoir Mear (IRE) 12 Mr John P McManus Thomas Mullins Ireland
Secret Reprieve (IRE) 8 Mr & Mrs William Rucker Evan Williams
Smoking Gun (IRE) 9 D Barnard, N Courtney, M Madden, Gin & G Gee's Gordon Elliott Ireland
Snow Leopardess 10 Andrew Fox-Pitt Charlie Longsdon
Stones And Roses (IRE) 8 P. Reilly/C. Reilly Willie Mullins Ireland
The Big Dog (IRE) 9 Damien J. Kelly/Colin Kelly Peter Fahey Ireland
The Hollow Ginge (IRE) 9 The Ginge Army Nigel Twiston-Davies
The Two Amigos 10 Bradley Partnership Nicky Martin
Tiger Roll (IRE) 12 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Time To Get Up (IRE) 9 Mr John P. McManus Jonjo O'Neill
Top Ville Ben (IRE) 10 Harbour Rose Partnership Philip Kirby
Two For Gold (IRE) 9 May We Never Be Found Out Partnership 2 Kim Bailey
Uisce Beatha (IRE) 9 The Has Been's Sophie Leech
Via Dolorosa (FR) 10 Judith Wilson David Pipe
Windsor Avenue (IRE) 10 Phil & Julie Martin Brian Ellison
And an immediate tip from James Hill in the RP (is he a Lifer?)
I've given the 100s a battering but Bob's generosity is unbowed. 66s top price elsewhere and last traded at 55 on Betfair Exchange.
For the full skinny on his stat-claims, see post on p1.
Take advantage while you can!
'His Irish National win was no fluke'
Freewheelin Dylan
100-1 bet365
I can't remember the last time a reigning Irish Grand National winner was 100-1 for Aintree, but you can still get a three-figure price for Freewheelin Dylan, which is surprising when you consider the second from that race, Run Wild Fred, is now rated as high as 158 and is currently one of the favourites.
Freewheelin Dylan has shown little in two starts this winter, although the jockey should never have come off in the cross-country chase at Cheltenham in November. Generally his jumping is excellent, and that Irish National win wasn't a fluke.
James Hill, tipster
However, as always, relative and absolute weights are going to be crucial.
Aside from the possibility of an Irish premium when the GN marks are framed on 15 Feb, there's the potential for a significant weight hike if Galvin (OR167) and, say, Chris's Dream (160) is topweight.
That would give Minella Times 11.09 and Any Second Now 11.07 to carry (not winnable-with given either's profile IMHO) and put a lot of otherwise lively chances in or over the critical 10.12~11.02 range.
So some tricky betting tactics to figure out since all may not be clear about topweight until after the Gold Cup.
Aside from Freewheelin Dylan, flashing away on the radar screen already are:
- Mount Ida (wants to be <11.00)
- Longhouse Poet (put up 9lbs to 154 for his impressive Theystes win but that might not stop him if he carries <11.02)
- Enjoy D'Allen (<10.12)
- Braeside (<10.10)
- School Boy Hours (at Irish OR142 touch and go whether he'd make the cut so an extra 1lb on 15th Feb would be welcome)
From British yards, the brightest flashers are currently:- Fiddlerontheroof (<11.02)
- Mighty Thunder (<11.00)
- Snow Leopardess (<11.00)
- Time To Get Up (<10.12)
- Elegant Escape (<10.12)
- [if soft] Highland Hunter (<10.12)
But early doors of course.More anon.
- Highland Hunter (generally 40s), whose having an excellent season already and who, on Midlands National form in March, is the better off of the two at the weights and is fav to take this.
It's an open race however and they won't have it their own way.With April's weights not framed until 15 Feb, it would suit both of them to near-miss rather than incur the further hike in OR that would accompany a win today, especially if (as appears likely) the GN topweight runs off only around OR160. Though, of the 2, by my reckoning Mighty Thunder's stats are a tad more resilient to a moderate rise in mark.
A fascinating watch. Enjoy.
And one of the Irish-trained entries with good-looking stats, Enjoy D'Allen, having a spin in a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown today. A safe round will do nicely but he's got an exceptionally low hurdles mark and could well be in the mix.
He's got good stats for a GN but that's now 3 strikes this term and, unless he can show some creditable form before April, he won't be on my short list sadly.
Highland Hunter went nicely but ran out of gas (maybe too soon after Chepstow) still ticks a lot of boxes but his best GN chance would be on soft.
Job done for Enjoy D'Allen though he's an enigma over hurdles, for which his OR's a full 33lbs below his Chase mark. No lack of intent but was off the bridle from a long way out yesterday but, once again, showed his genuineness hanging in to finish 10L 5th. Very much still flashing away brightly on the radar screen for April and happy to have snaffled the 50s (40 best now), though weight will be key.
Minella Times was never put in the race and it looked like a safe spin was the order of the day after a fall on his seasonal debut. Aside from no form this season, he'll have too much weight in April to have a serious chance of back to back wins.
What interested me most was that both the winner Birchdale and close second Foxy Jacks frank the form of both December's Paddy Power Handicap and the recent Thyestes.
Birchdale was notably 4lb out of the handicap today, so effectively a 4lbs higher mark than when 8.5L 6th to PP winner School Boy Hours (Enjoy D’Allen close 3rd).
Enjoy D’Allen is very much on the shortlist but so too is School Boy Hours, for whom Noel Meade has confirmed Aintree is his #1 target.
Though OR142 doesn't guarantee a run, this year it looks like there's a decent chance he'll make the cut, especially if the handicapper applies a premium to the Irish marks (we find out 15 Feb).
He'll have no further run before Aintree and, while that isn't ideal from a stats-perspective, he still has an overall winning GN stat-profile that's resilient to any likely weight rise and a nice pedigree, with Wild Risk in the right places and hailing from the family of the great stayer of the late 1980s Bonanza Boy.
Barring mishap he'll very likely be on my team. Currently antepost 33/1.
Foxy Jacks (9L 7th in the PP) was well beaten in a particularly strong renewal of the Thyestes 10 days ago and the winner of that, Longhouse Poet (also 33s) would also be of serious consideration in April depending on how the weights pan out.
It is guesswork I know but, looking at the entries and likely scratches this year, I'd be very surprised if the cut isn't well below her mark this morning of 145. And, as a winner over the GN fences, she'd possibly get an extra lb anyway from the handicapper.
Yet, seemingly, Charlie Longsdon thought otherwise and she's just romped to victory, 14L clear of a 142-rated rival, in a 3m mares chase in the Exeter mud - virtually guaranteeing a mark of 150+ and 11.00+ to carry if, as likely, the GN topweight runs off c.160.
She's promptly been cut to 16s from 25s for the GN and she's a very likeable mare and, especially in the event of rain, would likely have been on my team off 145. But my model suggests that 11.00+ tips the scales meaningfully against her for 9 April.
Betting aside, I'd love to be wrong as we haven't had a mare win it for 71 years and it would be a great story (a grey to boot) but I fear Charlie Longsdon may be one of those British trainers (King, Hobbs, Henderson, Tizzard readily spring to mind as others) that seem to go to extremes not to win a Grand National.
Half an hour later saw Elegant Escape PU in the heavy ground. Maybe retirement beckons for him now (or should do); it'll be touch and go whether he hangs on to a mark to earn a GN start, if connections still had that aspiration.
Will get whacked for that by the handicapper. Could have just given her a spin around Haydock this Saturday?
All for an £18k pot?
GN weights and a major break for Snow Leopardess, put up just 1lb to 146 for that romp home on Sunday.What's more Chris's Dream (the likely default topweight if Galvin [will "only run if something happened in the GC"], Conflated [sounds a definite non-starter] and Melon are scratched), being allotted 162, means a probable worst case 10.08 to carry for Longsdon's grey mare (10.07 if Melon lines up).
Still very much a player on her stats and a dead cert to go off favourite surely once the housewives put their money down.
Freewheelin Dylan given 147; guaranteed a run and a very workable weight to carry (10.04~10.09). Still available at 100s from Bob and an each-way steal IMHO if he gets decent ground.
Time to get busy with the slide rule.
More anon.
2022 Grand National weights: the full list
1 Conflated, 11st 10lb (167)
2 Galvin, 11st 10lb (167)
3 Melon, 11st 6lb, (163)
4 Chris's Dream, 11st 5lb (162)
5 Franco De Port, 11st 4lb (161)
6 Minella Times, 11st 4lb (161)
7 Tiger Roll, 11st 4lb (161)
8 Chantry House, 11st 3lb (160)
9 Delta Work, 11st 3lb (160)
10 Any Second Now, 11st 2lb (159)
11 Easysland, 11st 2lb (159)
12 Run Wild Fred, 11st 1lb (158)
13 Battleoverdoyen, 11st (157)
14 Brahma Bull, 11st (157)
15 Lostintranslation, 11st (157)
16 Assemble, 10st 13lb (156)
17 Burrows Saint, 10st 13lb (156)
18 Mount Ida, 10st 13lb (156)
19 Fiddlerontheroof, 10st 12lb (155)
20 Longhouse Poet, 10st 12lb (155)
21 Two For Gold, 10st 11lb (154)
22 Eklat De Rire, 10st 10lb (153)
23 Santini, 10st 10lb (153)
24 Chatham Street Lad, 10st 9lb (152)
25 Escaria Ten, 10st 9lb (152)
26 Farclas, 10st 9lb (152)
27 Off You Go, 10st 9lb (152)
28 Ontheropes, 10st 9lb (152)
29 Samcro, 10st 9lb (152)
30 Itchy Feet, 10st 8lb (151)
31 Windsor Avenue, 10st 8lb (151)
32 Coko Beach, 10st 7lb (150)
33 Good Boy Bobby, 10st 7lb (150)
34 Lord Du Mesnil, 10st 7lb (150)
35 Caribean Boy, 10st 6lb (149)
36 Court Maid, 10st 6lb (149)
37 De Rasher Counter, 10st 6lb (149)
38 Sam Brown 10st 6lb (149)
39 Anibale Fly, 10st 5lb (148)
40 Braeside, 10st 5lb (148)
41 Dingo Dollar, 10st 5lb (148)
42 Discorama, 10st 5lb (148)
43 Enjoy D'Allen, 10st 5lb (148)
44 Highland Hunter, 10st 5lb (148)
45 Kildisart, 10st 5lb (148)
46 Top Ville Ben, 10st 5lb (148)
47 Class Conti, 10st 4lb (147)
48 Cloth Cap, 10st 4lb (147)
49 El Presente, 10st 4lb (147)
50 Freewheelin Dylan, 10st 4lb (147)
51 Jett, 10st 4lb (147)
52 Mighty Thunder, 10st 4lb (147)
53 Noble Yeats, 10st 4lb (147)
54 Agusta Gold, 10st 3lb (146)
55 Cloudy Glen, 10st 3lb (146)
56 Phoenix Way, 10st 3lb (146)
57 Snow Leopardess, 10st 3lb (146)
58 Blaklion, 10st 2lb (145)
59 Deise Aba, 10st 2lb (145)
60 Kalooki, 10st 2lb (145)
61 Milan Native, 10st 2lb (145)
62 Poker Party, 10st 2lb (145)
63 Death Duty, 10st 1lb (144)
64 Domaine De L'Isle, 10st 1lb (144)
65 Go Another One, 10st 1lb (144)
66 The Big Dog, 10st 1lb (144)
67 Eclair Surf, 10st (143)
68 Fortescue, 10st (143)
69 Commodore, 9st 13lb (142)
70 Romain De Senam, 9st 13lb (142)
71 School Boy Hours, 9st 13lb (142)
72 Back On The Lash, 9st 12lb (141)
73 Elegant Escape, 9st 11lb (140)
74 Full Back, 9st 11lb (140)
75 Mister Fogpatches, 9st 11lb (140)
76 Roi Mage, 9st 11lb (140)
77 Scoir Mear, 9st 11lb (140)
78 Smoking Gun, 9st 11lb (140)
79 Uisce Beatha, 9st 11lb (140)
80 Kauto Riko, 9st 10lb (139)
81 Mac Tottie, 9st 10lb (139)
82 Discordantly, 9st 9lb (138)
83 Hill Sixteen, 9st 9lb (138)
84 Kapcorse, 9st 9lb (138)
85 Plan Of Attack, 9st 9lb (138)
86 Potters Corner, 9st 9lb (138)
87 Secret Reprieve, 9st 9lb (138)
88 Defi Bleu, 9st 8lb (137)
89 Definite Plan, 9st 8lb (137)
90 Mister Whitaker, 9st 8lb (137)
91 Mortal, 9st 8lb (137)
92 Robin Des Foret, 9st 8lb (137)
93 Achille, 9st 6lb (135)
94 Eurobot, 9st 6lb (135)
95 Larry, 9st 6lb (135)
96 Pink Eyed Pedro, 9st 6lb (135)
97 The Two Amigos, 9st 5lb (134)
98 The Hollow Ginge, 9st 3lb (132)
99 Alpha Des Obeaux, 9st 1lb (130)
100 Didero Vallis, 9st 1lb (130)
101 Gwencily Berbas, 9st 1lb (130)
102 Jerrysback, 9st 1lb (130)
103 Stones And Roses, 9st 1lb (130)
104 Via Dolorosa, 8st 10lb (125)
As for Snow Leopardess, what do I know, they've got the prize money with basically no impact on weights!
- range of lowest OR: 139~145
- range of lowest weights: 10.02~10.06
- range of OR from topweight to bottomweight: 18~22lbs
- rank in weights' list when weights unveiled: 58~76 (ave 67.3)
Taking the average, we may expect the cut to be at 143 but, as that would imply only 17lbs difference to probable topweight of 160, I'm still hopeful that School Boy Hours (#69~71), who's 33/1 and ticks a lot of boxes, may make it off 142 (had hoped he'd get the extra lb, like many of the other Irish-trained runners but hey ho).The current best candidates (from the 72 down to OR141) on their stats, according to my model, and from a quick and dirty run of the slide rule over the actual marks (importantly assuming decent ground and that Melon is topweight off 163), in weight order:
- Longhouse Poet (weight-sensitive but the best of the "quality" Irish contenders, with potential to take it with 11.00+)
- Fiddlerontheroof (weight-sensitive but ticks the key pedigree boxes)
- Farclas (weight-sensitive, comfortably the best chance of the returning frame-makers IMHO [put in the best GN run by a 7yo since Saint Are in 2013] and sure to put in a bold show but recent form line via Run Wild Fred gives him a fair bit to find on several, including Longhouse Poet - very likeable sort but others preferred at the weights)
- Enjoy D'Allen (heads straight to Aintree - super genuine and a pedigree reminiscent of Saint Are's)
- Caribean Boy (another to tick the optimal pedigree boxes but winning stat-profile dependent on strong run at Ascot or Kempton)
- Dingo Dollar (jumping a concern [didn't go great in Grand Sefton on soft 15 months ago] but loves spring ground and, now in Sandy Thomson's hands rather than Alan King's, he may be a dark house and e/w value at 50s)
- Braeside (but will run in Nat Hunt Chase at The Festival - hard race would be a concern. Softer ground preferred but the PP Hdcp was run at a fair clip)
- Freewheelin Dylan (said plenty already. Would definitely not want soft. Entered in the XC at The Festival. A safe spin would be nice stats-wise but not essential. Biggest weakness may be the jockey)
- Cloth Cap (on paper has the stats but, aside from less than stellar form this season, there's a risk he'll be adversely affected mentally returning to the track at which he had a breathing issue last year - won't be carrying my shillings)
- Snow Leopardess (near-perfect pedigree [same Damsire, Persian Bold, as Rule The World]. The softer ground the better her chance but travels OK on better ground)
- School Boy Hours (may not make the cut)
6 of these Irish-trained, 5 for the home team. Maybe some additions, deletions over the next month as final preps are run.For what it's worth, I'm currently on each-way antepost with Bob's Mob (5 places 1/4 odds):
Freewheelin Dylan at 100s
Enjoy D'Allen at 50s (now 25s for 5 places)
Snow Leopardess at 20s (now 16s)
Fiddlerontheroof at 33s (now 25s)
School Boy Hours at 33s
PS The list could change dramatically if it came up Soft - Discorama, Highland Hunter, Lord Du Mesnil, Eclair Surf and possibly even Blaklion most likely to come into the reckoning (Dylan, Dingo and Cloth Cap definitely off that list).
Looks like the BHA's keen on a home win.
PS On reflection, Chilli Fill's mark is probably not due for adjustment until next Tuesday, seeing as the race was on Sunday. Maybe she'll get a drop after all.
That said, according to Racing TV's conversations with Elliott:
"The intention is to run him if he gets in. He will run in the National Hunt Chase and then go to the National. He made a mistake in Thyestes .... that just put him out of the race a little bit. He has been really good since then. He has already won the Cork National on heavy ground and he stays very well but he ran well in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown on good ground."
O'Leary - an arsehole of the very highest order (and that's me being polite).
But I reckon JP and de Bromhead have a much more justifiable complaint about Minella Times' mark, which at 161 is higher still that was indicated after he won last year, despite a (not unreasonably quiet but) very ordinary season.
To have him 15lbs higher for his win is completely unjustifiable (even in relation to other returnees and they're hardly favourably treated IMHO).
It screws any chance of a competitive run, let alone back-to-back wins, and in his case I think that, in the interest of the horse, JP would be justified in pulling him out. I don't think he's shown anything like the form necessary to take a chance with virtually topweight.
I think this handicapper's got different but equally odd views to his predecessor. Just my view.
And, hold on to your hats, much though I'd love to see Dylan score at 100/1 (and he could, with a slice of fair fortune), my model's indicating he'll more likely near-miss and instead, this year, it'll be one for the Home Team (the first for 5 years):
FIDDLERONTHEROOF (25/1), whose profile and campaign to date is very reminiscent of Many Clouds but with an extra giddy-up to his pedigree.
- 2nd season chaser, like every first-time GN winner since 2014, the 8 year-old's had the GN as his target all season and started his campaign (like MC) by winning the Listed 20f chase at Carlisle in November before notching his best chase RPR to date, notably over the furthest trip yet attempted, in the 26f Hennessy (aka Ladbroke Trophy) 3 weeks later.
- Run at a left-handed galloping track, presenting one of the stiffest jumping tests in National Hunt, carrying >11.00 to go close in Newbury's Hennessy (with its typically large field) has been a decent GN pointer for many a year (Comply Or Die, State Of Play as well as Many Clouds). Fiddler might have won but for being hampered by his fallen stablemate at the 4th last and, though the jury's out on the form of the race (winner's been poor but others have run creditably, suggesting the finish took its toll), his strong-finishing 0.5L 2nd earned him an RPR164. Notably, that's 9lbs higher than his GN mark OR155 (crude benchmark for GN success is 5+) and 2lbs higher than Many Clouds RPR162 for his Hennessy win in 2014 (MC's GN winning mark was 160 and his weight 11.09). Travelling and jumping nicely on decent ground under 11.04 that day (will carry 10.12~11.03 on 9 Apr) bodes well for a GN on similar going but soft ground would be a concern.
- With one prep, he'll have 10 chases under his belt (same as MC) and, though not essential to his GN chance, with a strong run on Sat he'd match MC's 70% win or near-miss record to date. In fact, Fiddler's never been out of the first 3 home.
- That includes 7L 2nd to Monkfish in the Grade 1 Novice 3m chase at last year's Cheltenham Festival and, even allowing for that margin to have slightly flattered him, the collateral form from that, by my reckoning, makes Fiddler nicely-weighted relative to the best of the Irish competition.
- With Saturday's spin, he'll have had 3 runs in the season, the last 49 days prior: in the sweet spot.
Damside Pedigree is spot on for a "modern GN" winner- Damsire is Arc winner Montjeu, whose flat progeny include multiple Group 1 winners at 12~20f (including Tiger Roll's sire Authorized) and 2nd damsire Midyan has damsired a G1 winner at 10f (RPR120). 7 of the 8 winners since 2013 have 1st damsire with such quality flat progeny and at least 1 other damsire likewise or having damsired a GN winner or runner-up (only 15% of GN fields ticked this box).
- Not only has Wild Risk on his damside (all of the last 8 winners and all 6 finishing up to 5L of them shared this, as did c 50% of all GN runners since 2013) but it's in combination with Bold Ruler (sire of Secretariat), who's seen on the damside of only 16% of GN runners but in every winner of the last 5 GNs (i.e. Rule The World, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll and Minella Times). Saint Are, Magic Of Light and Rathvinden also had this Wild Risk and Bold Ruler combo on their damsides, which only 8% of GN fields shared.
- This is the pedigree giddy-up that Many Clouds didn't possess (notably Saint Are was only 2L behind him that day in 2015) and, of this year's likely runners, only Minella Times, Caribean Boy and (with a twist) Snow Leopardess share all of these pedigree attributes
Unlikely though it is, Galvin running would be an meaningful advantage for Fiddler in keeping his weight at 10.12 but the winning calibre of his stat-profile is (just about) resilient to carrying 11.03, should Chris's Dream be topweight on the day.In any event, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune typical to a GN, I seldom back win only in a GN and, though I was fortunate to grab the 33s, I still regard him as excellent e/w value with Bet365 (5 & 1/4 odds) at 25s.
Gonna be glued to the box at 2.25pm Saturday, also to watch Caribean Boy (more anon).