Ease of victory by Win My Wings prompts a sharp cut to 20s for the GN odds for Eclair Surf, narrowly beaten by her in the Eider. The form of his Warwick Classic win had already been franked by the impressive winner and 2nd in the Ultima.
Still not guaranteed a run and was scratched from the race today because the ground was thought too quick. If he does make the line up and the ground's soft, he certainly has the stats to be in the mix.
Quick pedigree note for any fellow weirdos like me from today's Scottish GN.
Sire of winner Win My Wings is Gold Well. As a mare, she inherited his X-chromosome, believed by some (though it's a matter of debate) to be the conveyor of the Big Heart gene. She certainly won like she's got a whopper.
Gold Well is also the sire of 2 runners next Saturday - Agusta Gold (also a mare and thus also an inheritor of Gold Well's X-chromosome) andTwo For Gold (relative of The Last Samuri but recipient of Gold Well's Y-chromosome).
Agusta Gold's jumping leaves a lot to be desired but also of note:
Gold Well was the unraced full brother to Montjeu, who is the damsire (i.e. maternal grand-dad) of Fiddlerontheroof. That means that Fiddlerontheroof could have inherited Montjeu's X-chromosome (identical to Gold Well's?) via his Mum.
Moreover, Fiddler's sire is Stowaway. Of the sires represented next Saturday, the highest strike rate for their progeny making the frame in chases at 4m+ from 10+ attempts?
Stowaway 40% (from 10) Gold Well 36% (from 25)
Stowaway is also the sire of Phoenix Way and Go Another One (who has form over 28f and is not the worst value each-way shot at 100/1)
Any guidance @PeanutsMolloy where Bob’s free bet at Ayr should be going in the McNational?
Noticed my free bet pop up whilst on my way to Tonbridge yesterday, so had to be on the winner. Done an additional double on both the horse and football team. Schoolboy error on my part, the football team is shit.
"Narrow preference is for Burrows Saint, who finished fourth off the same mark last season. The Willie Mullins-trained nine-year-old is a general 20-1 chance.
His age is not a problem on the trends and he carries 11st 4lb, which should not be insurmountable if he is able to bounce back from his disappointing show when a remote third behind Any Second Now last time.
Burrows Saint has mostly run well this season with this race in mind and his experience of running in the National stands him in good stead, especially given the recent record of Irish trainers in the race."
Even on trends, there is quite a flaw in this analysis because only 1 horse that previously made the frame in a GN has then won it in the last 34 years (Amberleigh House in 2004 and he owed it to a massive slice of good fortune).
And in the 8 "modern" GNs (since the course and fence changes after 2012), other than the inimitable Tiger Roll, the winner has been a GN debutant every time.
And if the writer's hanging their hat on being Irish-trained, that's great but there are currently 22 other Irish-trained steeds in the top 40. Indeed, as a side note, for the first time in history, there's likely to be a majority of the field Irish-trained.
But most important of all, let's hear the thoughts of his jockey last year, recalling the point in the race just before the 2nd last fence:
"I thought I could win the National - but in five strides it all went up in smoke
...... Burrows empties underneath me, his stamina evaporating like air out of a balloon. We jump the second-last and Minella Times and Balko start to draw away. Any Second Now runs on past. Sigh.
The last is getting bigger. We're getting slower. Get over it. Jesus, the Elbow looks a long way away. Burrows is starting to hang right, he's very tired."
Last year Burrows Saint carried 10.13 (his prep 5L 2nd in the Bobbyjo), this year at least 11.04 (his prep 42L 3rd of 4 in the Bobbyjo).
If Burrows Saint wins this GN, I will permanently delete my model and
So my old friend and fellow cardinal @PeanutsMolloy what are you top three suggestions for this once a year punter?
Cheers Henry me ol mucker. It's a case of the early bird etc.... sadly. There are 3 that have the best fit with winners or near-missers over last 6 GNs (the ground will affect relative chances) but, alas, they are all much shorter odds now than they once were even 3 weeks ago. There are some tastier prices among those that could win it but whose stat-profiles are more like those being in the mix at the business end but a panatela rather than a Churchill.
Tricky weather outlook that could scupper a couple of lively 50/1 shots, who'd like it dry. And there are some contenders on any ground at 33~40/1 among the lightweights but they may not line up at Aintree
Best-fit with winners/near-missers profiles:
Fiddlerontheroof (best profile-fit with last 5 winners but would not want it Soft) - tipped when 25/1 but now 14/1 Snow Leopardess (would not want it quick) - tipped when 20/1 now 9/1 Delta Work (no worries on ground) - tipped when 66/1 but now 8/1
Strong fit with near-missers/placed horses (could win it if fate smiles):
Dingo Dollar (would want it as dry as possible) - 50/1 Freewheelin Dylan (ditto) - tipped when 100/1 now 50/1 Enjoy D'Allen - tipped when 40~50/1 now 11/1 Longhouse Poet 18/1 Death Duty (may go for Irish GN in preference) 40/1 Eclair Surf (would prefer it Soft and not guaranteed to get a starting place) 14/1 School Boy Hours (unlikely to make the cut) 33/1
If you fancy taking a flyer at a tasty 33/1 on a runner that has a question-mark over them but, if all's well, has the stats to win it, is guaranteed a start and is reasonably versatile as to ground, one to consider is Mighty Thunder. The question mark is that it will be his first run after a wind operation (his form this season has been poor, evidently because of a not-uncommon breathing issue). That's a standard op these days but it doesn't always work - in which case he'll likely bomb. A race like the GN will find him out for sure if the op hasn't worked but if it has, he won the 4m+ Scottish GN a year ago, after near-missing in the 4m+ Midlands National. He's a 2nd season chaser (like 6 of last 7 winners), has only 10.09 to carry and has a nice element to his pedigree that's shared by each of the last 5 GN winners and 3 near-missers (though also 10 others likely to run this year, including Fiddlerontheroof, Delta Work, Dingo Dollar, Longhouse Poet, Death Duty and School Boy Hours) His trainer won it with One For Arthur in 2017.
Chris's Dream, together with Chatham Street Lad and Go Another One scratched at today's Confirmation Stage. So Minella Times will be topweight and weights rise 1lb as mentioned last week Also puts the last one in now as Poker Party.
Next in line:
Death Duty GNOR144 (but seemingly targeted at Fairyhouse)
Domaine De L'Isle 144 (but current OR140)
Eclair Surf 143 (current 147 but bound to get rated higher than Fortescue tomorrow after Win My Wings' romp at Ayr but trainer wants Soft ground for him)
Fortescue 143 (current 147)
Commodore 142 (Topham entry)
School Boy Hours 142 (the same current rating as Commodore - would have to draw lots if Commodore stayed in at Thursday's decs)
Romain De Senam 142 (current 139)
There remain 3 with Topham entries (decs Wednesday): Battleoverdoyen, Samcro and Commodore And Elliott said last week that decisions still had to be made re Run Wild Fred and Coko Beach. Going to go to the wire for School Boy Hours but will he travel over if only a Reserve or stay home and target the Irish?
I've got a few more bets running right now than will likely be in play on the day - either because they're scratched or don't made the cut (I'm on Death Duty, Eclair Surf and School Boy Hours NRNB) or the ground has gone against them and I'd aim to cash out.
I aim to back each-way all of those that my model identifies with stat-profiles comparable with previous winners or those finishing <10L. These days it seems to be typically at least 6 and this year it will be between 6 and 8, depending on the ground.
Only 4 are definites regardless of going - Delta Work, Snow Leopardess, Enjoy D'Allen and Longhouse Poet.
They'll be joined by Fiddlerontheroof, Dingo Dollar and Freewheelin Dylan if the ground looks like riding no worse than Good to Soft and, if it's Soft, by Blaklion and Eclair Surf if he makes the cut or Discorama if he doesn't.
If that seems a lot it's because, while I do it principally for fun, I spend so much time on the model that (though it's not a crystal ball) if I have confidence in it improving my % betting returns, it'd be daft if I didn't make it a financial exercise and invest a reasonable sum, not least with Mrs Molloy perusing the cruise catalogues once again.
My "book" of bets is aimed not to produce a jackpot but a favourably-skewed risk-reward profile. The aim, if I can get on early enough to secure decent odds, is for 1 place (2nd~5th, in some cases 6th) by any of my selections to get me to or very close to breakeven. Obviously I hope to get 2+ in the first 5 home, ideally including the winner.
I've never had a total blank as regards making the frame and only twice in 15 GNs have I made a loss (and one of those because I thought Tiger Roll's price too short to back in 2018 - the model had identified him - and the other was because Sunnyhillboy just got caught on the line and lost by a hair on Neptune Collonges's nose in 2012).
I've backed 5 of the last 15 winners (the model's actually identified 8 but, aside from me ducking Tiger twice because he was so short, I fucked up Pineau de Re's stats on my spreadsheet). I've backed 1st and/or 2nd 10 out of 15 (model = 13 from 15).
Obviously, as luck does play a meaningful part in a GN, it means backing the whole "team" that the model reckons could do the business. This year, as I'm on Delta Work at 66/1 and have made a decent profit laying off some of the Win bets I placed on him at 70s, I've got some ammunition to add Mighty Thunder to my team, for the reasons I mentioned to Henry. If Bob comes up with his usual offer, it'd be rude not to avail oneself.
Cloth Cap is another that on paper has the right stats but he's more ground dependent and I don't like backing a returning runner that had a bad experience last time (he had a breathing problem). Horses have long memories about places.
That’s why I asked, as have been getting on all those you mention above but obviously have to trim them off a bit. Weather’s looking a bit mental this week so I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Here’s to Mrs Peanuts getting a month long Caribbean cruise!
Jockeys being named for Ellliott's runners, suggesting that Run Wild Fred will run (Davy Russell) but no pilot as yet for Farclas (possibly injured?), Battleoverdoyen, Samcro (both Topham), Coko Beach or Death Duty (Irish GN). If none of these 5 run, either School Boy Hours or Commodore (both GN and current OR142) would be #40 (Commodore also has a Topham entry).
Complete by the by but this picky of Blaklion in the RP struck me as being the perfect, wordless explanation of why National Hunt racing is such an awesome, at its best wonderful, sport. Poetry, power and bravery in motion. Fantastic. Makes me go all goosepimply
Cheers, @RobinKeepsBobbin. Ive got some of Peanuts's tips at lovely long odds already, but will top up on his other suggestions using this offer, which is very good value indeed.
Cheers, @RobinKeepsBobbin. Ive got some of Peanuts's tips at lovely long odds already, but will top up on his other suggestions using this offer, which is very good value indeed.
That is the offer they did last year but the rumour is they will do it again
Cheers, @RobinKeepsBobbin. Ive got some of Peanuts's tips at lovely long odds already, but will top up on his other suggestions using this offer, which is very good value indeed.
That is the offer they did last year but the rumour is they will do it again
Great pic but i don't think Blaklion has a hope in hell of winning. I would go as far as to say no 13 year old will ever win it again.
There's sometimes gold in them there each-way hills, even for 13 year olds. Vics Canvas as a 13 yo 3rd in 2016 on Soft at 100/1 - on my team and he was bloody unlucky not to be closer to the win. Bless The Wings as a 13 yo 3rd in 2018 on Soft at 40/1 - another that my model picked as one to have on the team and, idiot-that-I-am, I gave him the swerve cos he'd PU'd in the Irish GN on desperate ground 5 days earlier. Hells teeth, I can be a right plonker at times. 66/1 for Blaklion - placed twice in a GN and won a Becher? Wouldn't surprise me at all if he placed if it were on the soft side - could be wrong but my model says he one of the top 6 on Soft.
Cheers, @RobinKeepsBobbin. Ive got some of Peanuts's tips at lovely long odds already, but will top up on his other suggestions using this offer, which is very good value indeed.
That is the offer they did last year but the rumour is they will do it again
Chris's Dream, together with Chatham Street Lad and Go Another One scratched at today's Confirmation Stage. So Minella Times will be topweight and weights rise 1lb as mentioned last week Also puts the last one in now as Poker Party.
Next in line:
Death Duty GNOR144 (but seemingly targeted at Fairyhouse)
Domaine De L'Isle 144 (but current OR140)
Eclair Surf 143 (current 147 but bound to get rated higher than Fortescue tomorrow after Win My Wings' romp at Ayr but trainer wants Soft ground for him)
Fortescue 143 (current 147)
Commodore 142 (Topham entry)
School Boy Hours 142 (the same current rating as Commodore - would have to draw lots if Commodore stayed in at Thursday's decs)
Romain De Senam 142 (current 139)
There remain 3 with Topham entries (decs Wednesday): Battleoverdoyen, Samcro and Commodore And Elliott said last week that decisions still had to be made re Run Wild Fred and Coko Beach. Going to go to the wire for School Boy Hours but will he travel over if only a Reserve or stay home and target the Irish?
Chris's Dream, together with Chatham Street Lad and Go Another One scratched at today's Confirmation Stage. So Minella Times will be topweight and weights rise 1lb as mentioned last week Also puts the last one in now as Poker Party.
Next in line:
Death Duty GNOR144 (but seemingly targeted at Fairyhouse)
Domaine De L'Isle 144 (but current OR140)
Eclair Surf 143 (current 147 but bound to get rated higher than Fortescue tomorrow after Win My Wings' romp at Ayr but trainer wants Soft ground for him)
Fortescue 143 (current 147)
Commodore 142 (Topham entry)
School Boy Hours 142 (the same current rating as Commodore - would have to draw lots if Commodore stayed in at Thursday's decs)
Romain De Senam 142 (current 139)
There remain 3 with Topham entries (decs Wednesday): Battleoverdoyen, Samcro and Commodore And Elliott said last week that decisions still had to be made re Run Wild Fred and Coko Beach. Going to go to the wire for School Boy Hours but will he travel over if only a Reserve or stay home and target the Irish?
So is Fortescue likely to get in?
It's 50:50 but I suspect he'll just make it. He needs 4 to come out. I'm probably making something of nothing re Farclas - Jack Kennedy, who rode him most of last season including for his GN 5th, was bound to be on board Delta Work, so maybe Elliott's just still finalising. No mention of a problem last week but he's not run for 139 days and jocks are already up for Run Wild Fred (Davy Russell, who presumably had the option to ride Farclas) and 40/1 shot Mount Ida (Denis O'Regan, who hasn't ridden her for more than a season). Escaria Ten too, but Heskin's retained by the owner. Let's assume Farclas does run in the GN - all is not lost for Fortescue. It seems pointless to give Samcro and Battleoverdoyen Topham entries unless they were intended runners on Friday. After all, he and the owner have got the fav Delta Work plus other livelier chances in the GN (they're 80 and 200/1 respectively for Saturday) and they're Elliott's only reps (2 of 3 for O'Leary) in the Topham (both 33/1). If that's right and if Death Duty is heading for Fairyhouse, as seems probable, then it would just take 1 more to be scratched for Fortescue to get a run. Elliott was undecided last week where to target Coko Beach; Aintree (80/1) or Fairyhouse (33/1). He'd run with 4lbs lower mark in the Irish GN, which Elliott is very keen to win again. Seems like a no brainer to me. Alternatively, there's always the chance of a late niggle - as a Reserve, he'd have until Friday morning for a final chance to get in.
OK - completely disregard my ruminations yesterday about Elliott's jockey bookings for Saturday and absence thereof. All of his GN entries now have pilots named but, unless he's bizarrely decided he'll run them all to keep out Eclair Surf or ANOther, it surely means little. It would be nuts IMHO not to run Samcro and Battleoverdoyen in the Topham and Coko Beach off 4lbs lower in the Irish GN. And Death Duty was explicitly named last week by Elliott as his main hope for Fairyhouse. But who the F knows what he's got planned? Thankfully I seem not to be in tune with how his mind works.
What the F do I know? Other than you can't rely on a single word that the press reports about race intentions even within the last week - it's hardly a shock I know but it's f***ing irritating. So, now confirmed - Elliott has 20% of Saturday's field (8) and O'Leary 15% (6). With so much at stake, I think the BHA is inviting trouble at some point with so many runners representing a single owner. In any event, so much for Elliott waxing lyrical about Death Duty being his best chance in the Irish GN and being desperate to win it again. He runs on Saturday, in the slot freed up by Battleoverdoyen, who runs in the Topham. Samcro (off 3lbs higher in the GN, for which he's 80/1, than he would have on Friday, for which he was 33/1) and Coko Beach (who runs off 4lbs more than he would carry 9 days later at Fairyhouse, and may still do) join him plus Delta Work, Farclas, Mount Ida, Run Wild Fred and Escaria Ten to mount his GN assault. That leaves Domaine De L'Isle, Eclair Surf, Fortescue and School Boy Hours to rely on late niggles to get a run.
Many apologies for the false hope for Fortescue and SBH to squeak in.
Probably a lot of devious stuff going on to keep out horses they see as dangers.
Win My Wings understandably put up 14lbs for her romp at Ayr on Saturday. She no doubt improved after the Eider (Innisfree Lad's relatively disappointing run a yardstick) but, even so, it's surprising that there's no collateral rise for Eclair Surf. Nonetheless, he was already 4lbs well-in for the GN after his close 2nd in the Eider (Corrach Rambler also franking the form of his Warwick win (the last run prior to GN weights), when taking the Ultima so impressively). So, odds of 16/1 are fair enough for Eclair Surf for the GN. On OR147, he's now rated 1lb higher than Coko Beach and he'd be #30~35 on the card if his new rating were used. Great shame for connections if he and they miss out on a run by virtue of an egregious owner, not content with a 7/1, two 25/1 and a 40/1 shot, pursuing a weight-of-numbers strategy by adding two 80/1 shots who are 3 and 4lbs wrong at the weights. It's not against the rules (though it should be a matter of debate) but it demeans the race IMHO.
Comments
The form of his Warwick Classic win had already been franked by the impressive winner and 2nd in the Ultima.
Still not guaranteed a run and was scratched from the race today because the ground was thought too quick.
If he does make the line up and the ground's soft, he certainly has the stats to be in the mix.
Sire of winner Win My Wings is Gold Well. As a mare, she inherited his X-chromosome, believed by some (though it's a matter of debate) to be the conveyor of the Big Heart gene. She certainly won like she's got a whopper.
Gold Well is also the sire of 2 runners next Saturday - Agusta Gold (also a mare and thus also an inheritor of Gold Well's X-chromosome) and Two For Gold (relative of The Last Samuri but recipient of Gold Well's Y-chromosome).
Agusta Gold's jumping leaves a lot to be desired but also of note:
Gold Well was the unraced full brother to Montjeu, who is the damsire (i.e. maternal grand-dad) of Fiddlerontheroof.
That means that Fiddlerontheroof could have inherited Montjeu's X-chromosome (identical to Gold Well's?) via his Mum.
Moreover, Fiddler's sire is Stowaway.
Of the sires represented next Saturday, the highest strike rate for their progeny making the frame in chases at 4m+ from 10+ attempts?
Stowaway 40% (from 10)
Gold Well 36% (from 25)
Stowaway is also the sire of Phoenix Way and Go Another One (who has form over 28f and is not the worst value each-way shot at 100/1)
Done an additional double on both the horse and football team.
Schoolboy error on my part, the football team is shit.
4 April so definitely not an April Fool. A simple guide to how to make "trends" come up with a ludicrous tip if you disengage your brain.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/who-will-win-the-2022-grand-national-based-on-previous-trends/547465
"Narrow preference is for Burrows Saint, who finished fourth off the same mark last season. The Willie Mullins-trained nine-year-old is a general 20-1 chance.
His age is not a problem on the trends and he carries 11st 4lb, which should not be insurmountable if he is able to bounce back from his disappointing show when a remote third behind Any Second Now last time.
Burrows Saint has mostly run well this season with this race in mind and his experience of running in the National stands him in good stead, especially given the recent record of Irish trainers in the race."
Even on trends, there is quite a flaw in this analysis because only 1 horse that previously made the frame in a GN has then won it in the last 34 years (Amberleigh House in 2004 and he owed it to a massive slice of good fortune).
And in the 8 "modern" GNs (since the course and fence changes after 2012), other than the inimitable Tiger Roll, the winner has been a GN debutant every time.
And if the writer's hanging their hat on being Irish-trained, that's great but there are currently 22 other Irish-trained steeds in the top 40. Indeed, as a side note, for the first time in history, there's likely to be a majority of the field Irish-trained.
But most important of all, let's hear the thoughts of his jockey last year, recalling the point in the race just before the 2nd last fence:
"I thought I could win the National - but in five strides it all went up in smoke
...... Burrows empties underneath me, his stamina evaporating like air out of a balloon. We jump the second-last and Minella Times and Balko start to draw away. Any Second Now runs on past. Sigh.
The last is getting bigger. We're getting slower. Get over it. Jesus, the Elbow looks a long way away. Burrows is starting to hang right, he's very tired."
Last year Burrows Saint carried 10.13 (his prep 5L 2nd in the Bobbyjo), this year at least 11.04 (his prep 42L 3rd of 4 in the Bobbyjo).
If Burrows Saint wins this GN, I will permanently delete my model and
It's a case of the early bird etc.... sadly.
There are 3 that have the best fit with winners or near-missers over last 6 GNs (the ground will affect relative chances) but, alas, they are all much shorter odds now than they once were even 3 weeks ago.
There are some tastier prices among those that could win it but whose stat-profiles are more like those being in the mix at the business end but a panatela rather than a Churchill.
Tricky weather outlook that could scupper a couple of lively 50/1 shots, who'd like it dry.
And there are some contenders on any ground at 33~40/1 among the lightweights but they may not line up at Aintree
Best-fit with winners/near-missers profiles:
Fiddlerontheroof (best profile-fit with last 5 winners but would not want it Soft) - tipped when 25/1 but now 14/1
Snow Leopardess (would not want it quick) - tipped when 20/1 now 9/1
Delta Work (no worries on ground) - tipped when 66/1 but now 8/1
Strong fit with near-missers/placed horses (could win it if fate smiles):
Dingo Dollar (would want it as dry as possible) - 50/1
Freewheelin Dylan (ditto) - tipped when 100/1 now 50/1
Enjoy D'Allen - tipped when 40~50/1 now 11/1
Longhouse Poet 18/1
Death Duty (may go for Irish GN in preference) 40/1
Eclair Surf (would prefer it Soft and not guaranteed to get a starting place) 14/1
School Boy Hours (unlikely to make the cut) 33/1
If you fancy taking a flyer at a tasty 33/1 on a runner that has a question-mark over them but, if all's well, has the stats to win it, is guaranteed a start and is reasonably versatile as to ground, one to consider is Mighty Thunder.
The question mark is that it will be his first run after a wind operation (his form this season has been poor, evidently because of a not-uncommon breathing issue). That's a standard op these days but it doesn't always work - in which case he'll likely bomb.
A race like the GN will find him out for sure if the op hasn't worked but if it has, he won the 4m+ Scottish GN a year ago, after near-missing in the 4m+ Midlands National.
He's a 2nd season chaser (like 6 of last 7 winners), has only 10.09 to carry and has a nice element to his pedigree that's shared by each of the last 5 GN winners and 3 near-missers (though also 10 others likely to run this year, including Fiddlerontheroof, Delta Work, Dingo Dollar, Longhouse Poet, Death Duty and School Boy Hours)
His trainer won it with One For Arthur in 2017.
Hope this helps.
Good luck.
Mighty thunder worth a bob each way and half a dollar E/W on the three highlighted it is
Chris's Dream, together with Chatham Street Lad and Go Another One scratched at today's Confirmation Stage.
So Minella Times will be topweight and weights rise 1lb as mentioned last week
Also puts the last one in now as Poker Party.
Next in line:
There remain 3 with Topham entries (decs Wednesday): Battleoverdoyen, Samcro and Commodore
And Elliott said last week that decisions still had to be made re Run Wild Fred and Coko Beach.
Going to go to the wire for School Boy Hours but will he travel over if only a Reserve or stay home and target the Irish?
I've got a few more bets running right now than will likely be in play on the day - either because they're scratched or don't made the cut (I'm on Death Duty, Eclair Surf and School Boy Hours NRNB) or the ground has gone against them and I'd aim to cash out.
I aim to back each-way all of those that my model identifies with stat-profiles comparable with previous winners or those finishing <10L. These days it seems to be typically at least 6 and this year it will be between 6 and 8, depending on the ground.
Only 4 are definites regardless of going - Delta Work, Snow Leopardess, Enjoy D'Allen and Longhouse Poet.
They'll be joined by Fiddlerontheroof, Dingo Dollar and Freewheelin Dylan if the ground looks like riding no worse than Good to Soft and, if it's Soft, by Blaklion and Eclair Surf if he makes the cut or Discorama if he doesn't.
If that seems a lot it's because, while I do it principally for fun, I spend so much time on the model that (though it's not a crystal ball) if I have confidence in it improving my % betting returns, it'd be daft if I didn't make it a financial exercise and invest a reasonable sum, not least with Mrs Molloy perusing the cruise catalogues once again.
My "book" of bets is aimed not to produce a jackpot but a favourably-skewed risk-reward profile. The aim, if I can get on early enough to secure decent odds, is for 1 place (2nd~5th, in some cases 6th) by any of my selections to get me to or very close to breakeven. Obviously I hope to get 2+ in the first 5 home, ideally including the winner.
I've never had a total blank as regards making the frame and only twice in 15 GNs have I made a loss (and one of those because I thought Tiger Roll's price too short to back in 2018 - the model had identified him - and the other was because Sunnyhillboy just got caught on the line and lost by a hair on Neptune Collonges's nose in 2012).
I've backed 5 of the last 15 winners (the model's actually identified 8 but, aside from me ducking Tiger twice because he was so short, I fucked up Pineau de Re's stats on my spreadsheet).
I've backed 1st and/or 2nd 10 out of 15 (model = 13 from 15).
Obviously, as luck does play a meaningful part in a GN, it means backing the whole "team" that the model reckons could do the business. This year, as I'm on Delta Work at 66/1 and have made a decent profit laying off some of the Win bets I placed on him at 70s, I've got some ammunition to add Mighty Thunder to my team, for the reasons I mentioned to Henry. If Bob comes up with his usual offer, it'd be rude not to avail oneself.
Cloth Cap is another that on paper has the right stats but he's more ground dependent and I don't like backing a returning runner that had a bad experience last time (he had a breathing problem). Horses have long memories about places.
So, sorry for the long answer.
In short, 7 or 8.
If none of these 5 run, either School Boy Hours or Commodore (both GN and current OR142) would be #40 (Commodore also has a Topham entry).
Poetry, power and bravery in motion. Fantastic. Makes me go all goosepimply
Vics Canvas as a 13 yo 3rd in 2016 on Soft at 100/1 - on my team and he was bloody unlucky not to be closer to the win.
Bless The Wings as a 13 yo 3rd in 2018 on Soft at 40/1 - another that my model picked as one to have on the team and, idiot-that-I-am, I gave him the swerve cos he'd PU'd in the Irish GN on desperate ground 5 days earlier. Hells teeth, I can be a right plonker at times.
66/1 for Blaklion - placed twice in a GN and won a Becher? Wouldn't surprise me at all if he placed if it were on the soft side - could be wrong but my model says he one of the top 6 on Soft.
So it is. I'll wait.
He needs 4 to come out.
I'm probably making something of nothing re Farclas - Jack Kennedy, who rode him most of last season including for his GN 5th, was bound to be on board Delta Work, so maybe Elliott's just still finalising. No mention of a problem last week but he's not run for 139 days and jocks are already up for Run Wild Fred (Davy Russell, who presumably had the option to ride Farclas) and 40/1 shot Mount Ida (Denis O'Regan, who hasn't ridden her for more than a season). Escaria Ten too, but Heskin's retained by the owner.
Let's assume Farclas does run in the GN - all is not lost for Fortescue.
It seems pointless to give Samcro and Battleoverdoyen Topham entries unless they were intended runners on Friday.
After all, he and the owner have got the fav Delta Work plus other livelier chances in the GN (they're 80 and 200/1 respectively for Saturday) and they're Elliott's only reps (2 of 3 for O'Leary) in the Topham (both 33/1).
If that's right and if Death Duty is heading for Fairyhouse, as seems probable, then it would just take 1 more to be scratched for Fortescue to get a run.
Elliott was undecided last week where to target Coko Beach; Aintree (80/1) or Fairyhouse (33/1). He'd run with 4lbs lower mark in the Irish GN, which Elliott is very keen to win again. Seems like a no brainer to me.
Alternatively, there's always the chance of a late niggle - as a Reserve, he'd have until Friday morning for a final chance to get in.
All of his GN entries now have pilots named but, unless he's bizarrely decided he'll run them all to keep out Eclair Surf or ANOther, it surely means little.
It would be nuts IMHO not to run Samcro and Battleoverdoyen in the Topham and Coko Beach off 4lbs lower in the Irish GN. And Death Duty was explicitly named last week by Elliott as his main hope for Fairyhouse.
But who the F knows what he's got planned?
Thankfully I seem not to be in tune with how his mind works.
So, now confirmed - Elliott has 20% of Saturday's field (8) and O'Leary 15% (6).
With so much at stake, I think the BHA is inviting trouble at some point with so many runners representing a single owner.
In any event, so much for Elliott waxing lyrical about Death Duty being his best chance in the Irish GN and being desperate to win it again.
He runs on Saturday, in the slot freed up by Battleoverdoyen, who runs in the Topham.
Samcro (off 3lbs higher in the GN, for which he's 80/1, than he would have on Friday, for which he was 33/1) and Coko Beach (who runs off 4lbs more than he would carry 9 days later at Fairyhouse, and may still do) join him plus Delta Work, Farclas, Mount Ida, Run Wild Fred and Escaria Ten to mount his GN assault.
That leaves Domaine De L'Isle, Eclair Surf, Fortescue and School Boy Hours to rely on late niggles to get a run.
Many apologies for the false hope for Fortescue and SBH to squeak in.
Win My Wings understandably put up 14lbs for her romp at Ayr on Saturday.
She no doubt improved after the Eider (Innisfree Lad's relatively disappointing run a yardstick) but, even so, it's surprising that there's no collateral rise for Eclair Surf.
Nonetheless, he was already 4lbs well-in for the GN after his close 2nd in the Eider (Corrach Rambler also franking the form of his Warwick win (the last run prior to GN weights), when taking the Ultima so impressively).
So, odds of 16/1 are fair enough for Eclair Surf for the GN.
On OR147, he's now rated 1lb higher than Coko Beach and he'd be #30~35 on the card if his new rating were used.
Great shame for connections if he and they miss out on a run by virtue of an egregious owner, not content with a 7/1, two 25/1 and a 40/1 shot, pursuing a weight-of-numbers strategy by adding two 80/1 shots who are 3 and 4lbs wrong at the weights.
It's not against the rules (though it should be a matter of debate) but it demeans the race IMHO.