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Will we make the playoffs?
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The next 2 games are massive for us. Peterborough will be tough and Bolton infant see us getting much from them. 3cpoints would be fantastic imo0
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The play-offs are a pipe dream. The important thing is to retain Dobbo and Leaburn, to extend contracts where appropriate (e.g. Maynard-Brewer and Clare), make one or two decent additions this month and build some momentum for next season.4
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Someone who sees it how it is.Clem_Snide said:Have to laugh. 3 wins and suddenly everything that is wrong with the club becomes background noise.Lets be realistic, couple more injuries to key players and we are back to square pegs in round holes and probably defeats.We could have been 2/3 down before we scored against Barnsley and we aren't going to consistently get the good fortune we had in that game.There is also still time for Sandgaard to do something stupid and sell Dobson and Leaburn.IMO we are too far behind and would need too many teams who have been strong for half a season to go on horrendous runs.Another season wasted and my gut feeling is we could be in the shit big time come the summer. Best players sold, academy scaled back, Sandergaard still running around in Texas with his begging cap out and a complete squad overhaul needed and no money to do it.Also think Holden will be gone if a Take Over doesn't happen and he isn't given assurances around budget and his contract.
Although we would all like better it is not happening this season.2 -
Three teams achieved 2 ppg over the final 20 games last season - Sheff Wed, MK and Bolton. Only Wigan (exactly 2 ppg) were able to over the course of the whole season.Callumcafc said:Forget where we are in relation to other teams, with 2 games left to play (including games against those teams), doing that is almost pointless at this stage.Two points per game over the next 20 games is being made to seem a lot harder than it is.
When you compare it to the 46 game season and see that every year, only one or two teams at the very top make it, it looks impossible.
But how many teams over the course of a 46 game season have a 20-game streak of 40 points? It’s a lot easier to put that run together over a shorter period of time.
Take it to extremes, we’ve won three games in a row. That’s 3 points per game achieved over a short period. But no team has ever managed 3 points per game over 46 games.
Doesn’t mean it’s easy but it is attainable.
TeamPPG Final 20 Sheffield Wed 2.25 Milton Keynes 2.15 Bolton 2.05 Rotherham 1.85 Plymouth 1.85 Wigan Athletic 1.80 Portsmouth 1.75 Ipswich Town 1.75 Sunderland 1.70 Wycombe 1.70 Oxford Utd 1.65 Charlton 1.45 Cheltenham 1.25 Accrington 1.25 Cambridge Utd 1.25 Gillingham 1.10 Doncaster 1.10 Lincoln City 1.05 Shrewsbury 1.00 Morecambe 0.90 Burton Albion 0.85 Fleetwood 0.60 AFC Wimbledon 0.45 Crewe Alexandra 0.35 1 -
18/1 with Sky Bet
A fool and his money…0 -
The problem is that a lot of other teams have got to do badly to let us pass. Two bad results in those games against sides scrambling to avoid relegation and it’s never going to happen. My biggest hope is that the end of the season will act as a stepping stone to next year. It’s easy to forget the play-offs only give us 25% chance of going up. 8th would be solid.0
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A bit of morning maths. We should always look at the points needed rather than the teams above us. Yes, it will sometimes be a higher total than others but you will have an idea how many will give you a great chance. Now going back 8 seasons, the average number needed to finish in the top six is 71.5, let's round that up to 72. We will need 1.9 points per game to reach that. It is more than possible we will need a few more but it is in the ball park of possibility with a fair wind. If we get 75 points, that will get you in the play offs in all bar one of the last 8 seasons. That is 2.05 points per game. If we beat Posh on Saturday, it becomes a clean 2.
I would say it is stil in the doable zone but a few defeats will take us out of it pretty sharpish.0 -
Important thing is to take one game at a time and get safe as quick as possible, then we can see.2
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Just looking at the thread from last February. How football is cyclical is amusing and depressing all at the same time.soapboxsam said:What the Dickens ! It's a tale of two threads. We win and we are making top 6.
We lose a couple and we are getting relegated.
8th to 10th. Too many teams to catch but 22nd to 11th is impressive under JJ.
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Think you've accidentally used the 2020/21 season that was cut short in those averages, which lowers it slightly. The average of the last eight completed seasons is 73.9. The last five (which I use in my graph further up the thread) is 74.8MuttleyCAFC said:A bit of morning maths. We should always look at the points needed rather than the teams above us. Yes, it will sometimes be a higher total than others but you will have an idea how many will give you a great chance. Now going back 8 seasons, the average number needed to finish in the top six is 71.5, let's round that up to 72. We will need 1.9 points per game to reach that. It is more than possible we will need a few more but it is in the ball park of possibility with a fair wind. If we get 75 points, that will get you in the play offs in all bar one of the last 8 seasons. That is 2.05 points per game. If we beat Posh on Saturday, it becomes a clean 2.
I would say it is stil in the doable zone but a few defeats will take us out of it pretty sharpish.1 -
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It was back of a fag packet stuff but basically we are going to have to show automatic promotion form.LouisMend said:
Think you've accidentally used the 2020/21 season that was cut short in those averages, which lowers it slightly. The average of the last seven completed seasons is 73.9. The last five (which I use in my graph further up the thread) is 74.8MuttleyCAFC said:A bit of morning maths. We should always look at the points needed rather than the teams above us. Yes, it will sometimes be a higher total than others but you will have an idea how many will give you a great chance. Now going back 8 seasons, the average number needed to finish in the top six is 71.5, let's round that up to 72. We will need 1.9 points per game to reach that. It is more than possible we will need a few more but it is in the ball park of possibility with a fair wind. If we get 75 points, that will get you in the play offs in all bar one of the last 8 seasons. That is 2.05 points per game. If we beat Posh on Saturday, it becomes a clean 2.
I would say it is stil in the doable zone but a few defeats will take us out of it pretty sharpish.1 -
If we win every remaining game we will be promoted automatically.1
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Never let your heart rule your head in football.
It's fergie time again at Peterborough and new/old manager bounce paid off straight away at Port Vale where Posh picked up 3 points.
I don't see Cafc winning either of their games at Peterborough or against Bolton who are hot.
In fact we could lose both if we don't bring our A game or we have a stand in LB yet again.
You can't go half a season and only beat one team that are in the bottom half of the table and expect a top 6 finish.
When your a manager of course you get the players to believe but just as an observer we are still reliant on the opposition missing clear cut chances. If we had a fit squad until the end of the season we would go close but that's never happens for Cafc in recent years.
8th to 10th at best and that is with no decent player leaving in this window.
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Indeed, that was the one season in the eight where 75 points wouldn't have been enough.LouisMend said:
Think you've accidentally used the 2020/21 season that was cut short in those averages, which lowers it slightly. The average of the last eight completed seasons is 73.9. The last five (which I use in my graph further up the thread) is 74.8MuttleyCAFC said:A bit of morning maths. We should always look at the points needed rather than the teams above us. Yes, it will sometimes be a higher total than others but you will have an idea how many will give you a great chance. Now going back 8 seasons, the average number needed to finish in the top six is 71.5, let's round that up to 72. We will need 1.9 points per game to reach that. It is more than possible we will need a few more but it is in the ball park of possibility with a fair wind. If we get 75 points, that will get you in the play offs in all bar one of the last 8 seasons. That is 2.05 points per game. If we beat Posh on Saturday, it becomes a clean 2.
I would say it is stil in the doable zone but a few defeats will take us out of it pretty sharpish.0 -
Sounds like a plan. Let's do itseth plum said:If we win every remaining game we will be promoted automatically.2 -
If we get 4 or 6 points from the next two it’s believable
We looked guff with luck, huff and puff against Barnsley and that luck won’t last forever .
We win the lot from here on in and I’ll become vegan and supply Seth with a lifetime season ticket
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Oddly, we’re 9/1 to make the top 6, but 50/1 to get promoted (Paddy Power).9/1 not generous, 50/1 more so.0
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No0
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Still no!oohaahmortimer said:If we get 4 or 6 points from the next two it’s believable
We looked guff with luck, huff and puff against Barnsley and that luck won’t last forever .
We win the lot from here on in and I’ll become vegan and supply Seth with a lifetime season ticket0 -
No, not generous you mean? If so, I agree, it’s just more generous than 9/1 imho.0
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Think you’re about right. On the other hand, I might be tempted at those odds. Although I lose money backing us for promotion every year (other than 2019).CafcSCP said:
Soz mis read your message but 9/1 is poor 20/1 for the playoffs would be fair for the consumer.JamesSeed said:No, not generous you mean? If so, I agree, it’s just more generous than 9/1 imho.
50/1 should be 60-70.
we aren’t going up lol.0 -
Next 2 are against Peterborough and Bolton. Both above us in the table. So, IF we were to win those then we're in the mix. We really have no right to be where we are after how this season has gone so far but "it's a funny old game". Holden has made a great start and his continued success will be in part by the owner backing him with the players that he wants and securing key members of the existing playing group whose contracts run out at the end of the season.0
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The trick is not to draw too many. An extreme example but Blackburn are 5th in the Championship because they either win or they lose! There are only two teams who have lost more than them and that is only one more. You can average 2 points a game by losing one in three! How do you do that, you go out trying to win every game and have goals in your side.
For us, I think it is about having goals in the side. The League has a few half decent sides in it but it is generally shit. We have struggled to break the shit teams down, but if that changes we will win a lot of games IMO. We have scored two or more in our last three games and two has to be the minimum target. If we score two goals, we are not losing many games.1 -
Looking at it the other way, there has only been 2 0-0 draws in league 1 this year.MuttleyCAFC said:The trick is not to draw too many. An extreme example but Blackburn are 5th in the Championship because they either win or they lose! There are only two teams who have lost more than them and that is only one more. You can average 2 points a game by losing one in three! How do you do that, you go out trying to win every game and have goals in your side.
For us, I think it is about having goals in the side. The League has a few half decent sides in it but it is generally shit. We have struggled to break the shit teams down, but if that changes we will win a lot of games IMO. We have scored two or more in our last three games and two has to be the minimum target. If we score two goals, we are not losing many games.
There were 6 in December, out of 53 games. If you keep clean sheets you will, more often than not, win.
We have only failed to score 5 times but only kept 5 clean sheets.
Goals win games, defences win Championships.0 -
Well we seem to have tightened up at the back and become more clinical up front. Not perfect in both areas but neither are most of our opponents.1
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I put £20 on us at 80-1 on jan 2 . Just looked at cash out £29 -20p .0
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I would go as far to say that I season will be over for plays off after Plymouth away 4,mar.
With then 11 games to play it will be out of reach.
The rest of you are welcome to dream on.1 -
well why not...0
