Wide open Kim Muir - several with great chances near the top of the market - School Boy Hours and the ever-reliable Mister Fogpatches high on my list. But, with so many with winning shouts and with 6 places up for grabs, I prefer to root around the bargain basement for each way bargains and 2 that float my boat in the conditions: Cat Tiger 25/1 Mint Condition 33/1
Day saver that one was on Envoi and also got place with Grangee, so ticking over again not had to deposit since day one so i take that as a win even if small profits.
I still find it difficult to rationalise how the trainer bias has changed so much over the course of the last decade or so. The British have, admittedly, done better than I thought we would but it is staggering to think that such a high profile trainer such as Paul Nicholls has the one runner on Gold Cup day at Cheltenham when Messrs Mullins and Elliott have 20 and 17 runners respectively. Nicholls' runner is in the Hunter Chase which means that stable jockey, Harry Cobden, doesn't have a Cheltenham ride so he's off to Doncaster instead where he has three of them.
Mullins and Elliott sent no less than 127 runners over to the Festival between them this year - Nicholls will have had just nine. Little wonder they dominate but this is also, perhaps, a reflection of the fact that he has probably lost the patronage of some of his owners to two of his former assistants namely Harry Fry and Dan Skelton as well as some bigger owners who have ceased to own horses. The days of Master Minded, Kauto Star, Denman, Neptune Collonges, Big Buck's, Azertioup, See More Business etc etc must be something of a memory for him especially as he hasn't had a winner in the last two years at Cheltenham. Sad to see really.
If anyone's anticipating withdrawal symptoms tomorrow, just posted my picks for the Midlands National at Uttoxeter, both from yards with Festival winners this week: ACHILLE, an absolute e/w steal at 18s (7 places Skybet) IMHO Venetia in red hot form, even though he's 3lbs out of the handicap tomorrow with OR133, that's 9lbs lower than when staying on 6th (7L) in this year last year (now has a 9lb advantage with the winner Time To Get Up) on ground that will likely be similar. Carried 11.00 then but, with Hugh Nugent taking 3lbs off, has just 9.11 on his back tomorrow. Expecting first-time blinkers to sharpen him up nicely and to produce a return to his form when 4th in the December's Welsh GN off OR141.
Pairing him with MOMELLA at 14/1 e/w, a mare victorious on testing at 3 miles. Unexposed over further but typically staying on at that trip, including when a creditable 2nd to Snow Leopardess at levels in Feb, again in testing conditions. From the family of GN near-misser Magic of Light, also has the pedigree characteristics I look for at marathon trips: Wild Risk/Bold Ruler combo and a damsire that produced quality G1 flat winners at 10f+. Having a rare handicap outing, versatile on ground (just needs a test one way or another), carrying just 10.01 with regular partner Sean Bowen in the plate. Harry Fry's runners are 80% running to form over the last 14 days.
Ground is currently Soft but sunny weather today and tomorrow. Likely to be typical Uttoxeter Good-to-Soft in March - decent but still stamina-testing at 34f.
1.30 - Knight Salute e/w; Pied Piper for the win 2.10 - State Man win; Top Bandit and Eclair de Beaufeu e/w 2.50 - I'm on Hillcrest at 11/2, but can't advise at these prices. So, Shantreusse and Classic Getaway e/w please 3.30 - Galvin win; Al Boum Photo e/w 4pl 4.10 - Bob and Co, Cousin Pascal both e/w (probably bigger EW on the former as he's a skinny price) 4.50 - Concertista win, but this is a great contest. Cases to be made for all the top 5. 5.30 - Langer Dan win; Hes A Hardy Bloke e/w; Herbiers e/w (Herbiers form ties well in to Global Citizen)
Comments
But, with so many with winning shouts and with 6 places up for grabs, I prefer to root around the bargain basement for each way bargains and 2 that float my boat in the conditions:
Cat Tiger 25/1
Mint Condition 33/1
Going with Grangee and Hors Piste e/w in the next.
Going with two at the top of the market for the last. Frontal Assault and Mister Coffey e/w.
Venetia flying.
Mullins and Elliott sent no less than 127 runners over to the Festival between them this year - Nicholls will have had just nine. Little wonder they dominate but this is also, perhaps, a reflection of the fact that he has probably lost the patronage of some of his owners to two of his former assistants namely Harry Fry and Dan Skelton as well as some bigger owners who have ceased to own horses. The days of Master Minded, Kauto Star, Denman, Neptune Collonges, Big Buck's, Azertioup, See More Business etc etc must be something of a memory for him especially as he hasn't had a winner in the last two years at Cheltenham. Sad to see really.
1.30 Pied Piper
2.10 State Man
2.50 Hillcrest
3.30 Galvin
4.10 Billaway
4.50 Mount Ida
5.30 Grand Jury
Speculative e/w Super Heinz potentially paying £250k:
1.30 Teddy Blue
2.10 I Like To Move It
2.50 The Nice Guy
3.30 A Plus Tard
4.10 Dubai Quest
4.50 Scarlet & Dove
5.30 Adamantly Chosen
2.50. Hillcrest
3.30. Galvin
4.10. Winged Leader
4.50. Mount Ida
5.30. Hollow Games / Adamantly Chosen
Lucky 31:- Eachway
Vauban
I like to move it
Hillcrest
Galvin
Winged Leader
1:30 Pied piper (stakeback)/ Il Etait Temps (Freebet)
Double Elimay & Vauban both to win
Galvin & Ginto both to win (2.50/3.30)
2.10 - State man single win only
eachway punts:
2.10 Ballydam, Faivoir
2.50 Good time Johnny ( i wonder why?)
5.30 Admantly Chosen
Be lucky!
ACHILLE, an absolute e/w steal at 18s (7 places Skybet) IMHO
Venetia in red hot form, even though he's 3lbs out of the handicap tomorrow with OR133, that's 9lbs lower than when staying on 6th (7L) in this year last year (now has a 9lb advantage with the winner Time To Get Up) on ground that will likely be similar. Carried 11.00 then but, with Hugh Nugent taking 3lbs off, has just 9.11 on his back tomorrow.
Expecting first-time blinkers to sharpen him up nicely and to produce a return to his form when 4th in the December's Welsh GN off OR141.
Pairing him with MOMELLA at 14/1 e/w, a mare victorious on testing at 3 miles. Unexposed over further but typically staying on at that trip, including when a creditable 2nd to Snow Leopardess at levels in Feb, again in testing conditions.
From the family of GN near-misser Magic of Light, also has the pedigree characteristics I look for at marathon trips: Wild Risk/Bold Ruler combo and a damsire that produced quality G1 flat winners at 10f+.
Having a rare handicap outing, versatile on ground (just needs a test one way or another), carrying just 10.01 with regular partner Sean Bowen in the plate.
Harry Fry's runners are 80% running to form over the last 14 days.
Ground is currently Soft but sunny weather today and tomorrow. Likely to be typical Uttoxeter Good-to-Soft in March - decent but still stamina-testing at 34f.
1.30 Vauban
2.10 State Man
2.50 Ginto
3.30 al Boum photo
4.10 Billaway
Speculative lucky 31
1.30 Fil Dor
2.10 Top Bandit
2.50 Good Time Johnny
3.30 Santini
4.10 Bob and Co (purely after @bobmunro as using bet365)
2.10 - State Man win; Top Bandit and Eclair de Beaufeu e/w
2.50 - I'm on Hillcrest at 11/2, but can't advise at these prices. So, Shantreusse and Classic Getaway e/w please
3.30 - Galvin win; Al Boum Photo e/w 4pl
4.10 - Bob and Co, Cousin Pascal both e/w (probably bigger EW on the former as he's a skinny price)
4.50 - Concertista win, but this is a great contest. Cases to be made for all the top 5.
5.30 - Langer Dan win; Hes A Hardy Bloke e/w; Herbiers e/w (Herbiers form ties well in to Global Citizen)
1:30 Knight Salute, Doctor Parnassus
2:10 I like to Move it, Surprise Package
2:50 Minella Cocconer, Bardenstown Lad ew