what are the horses selected at this stage? Thanks in advance
My model rates them as follows and I’m backing the first 4 e/w with a win saver on Intense Raffles, as he has the best racing CV in the field (it’s his pedigree that relegates him in the final selections):
Maybe as a punishment he could be included in one of the fences in the National, perhaps the first. That way the whole field can say that they have jumped the Shark.
Maybe as a punishment he could be included in one of the fences in the National, perhaps the first. That way the whole field can say that they have jumped the Shark.
He may get a few kicks on the way mind.
The bloke is taller than most of the fences in the National these days! With regards to his comments about Hewick, Shark is well known for talking up his horses so I'm not giving his chance much credence. He's a cracking horse who has achieved so much given his paltry cost but as Peanuts has already put so eloquently in his wrap up, he won't get his ground which is absolutely pivotal to his chances
has a Winner's weight: career-best RPR159,
set last season when close 3rd in the 25.5f Cotswold Chase, is at a
9lb premium to his GNOR150 (average of last 11 winners GNOR+8lbs)
an 8 yo 2nd season
chaser is the sweetest of sweet spots: 5 of the last 9 GN winners (55.6%) from
just 47 runners (13.5% = x4.1 outperformance)
Has no chance because:
PU with wind problem in last year’s
4m Scottish National (furthest trip attempted) and, despite surgery, has
flopped twice on return
by Shantou: 41 runs over 4m+ by
his offspring have yielded 1 winner (13 ran in GNs, none finishing closer than
45L and 10 failed to complete)
VELVET ELVIS
Is nailed on because:
forget his prior GN (PU in the
mayhem of 2023), back to his best when an impressive close 2nd to
Nick Rockett in January’s Thyestes, forging clear of the field
yard (Gavin Cromwell) in top
form ….. scraping the barrel here, to be brutally honest
Has no chance because:
doesn’t get the trip: never made
the frame in 5 chases at 27~34f
by Shirocco: 7 GN runs by offspring, only 2 finished, nearest 35L
MINELLA DRAMA
Is nailed on because:
from x5 GN-winning yard of the McCains
local to and loves Aintree: best chase RPR159 set at the GN meeting 2 years ago
has Winner's Weight: best RPR = 11lb premium to GNOR148 (average of last 11 winners GNOR+8lbs)
by Flemensfirth (sire of x3 GN runners-up: King Johns Castle, The Last Samuri and Magic Of Light (x2.8 outperformance in producing first 2 home since 2013) and damsire is Kings Theatre (sire of Balthazar King, close GN 2nd in 2014)
Has no chance because:
will hate the occasion: never faced more than 11 rivals
in his life (27 races) and never beaten more than 6 over
fences
no Wild Risk anywhere in his pedigree: 134 GN runners since 2013 were likewise (31.4% of fields). producing zero winners.
MONBEG GENIUS
Is nailed on because:
run well in big chases at 25f+ in last 2 years: close 3rd in 2023 Ultima, 3rd in the 2023 Coral GC (same OR147 as now) and 4th in December's Welsh GN under 11.10, culminating in career-best RPR152 when winning last time out (GNOR+5lbs)
from family of GN4th It takes Time, each of first 3 damsires have GN connections: DS Supreme Leader was Damsire of GN2nd & 4th Oscar Time and sired 2002 near-misser Whats Up Boys; 2nd damsire Fourstars Allstar was damsire of Corach Rambler; and 3rd damsire Be My Native was damsire of GN 2nd Black Apalachi and 4th
Has no chance because:
never beaten more than 9 rivals: 11 of last 11 GN winners had scored vs 11+
56 days since last run: 0 wins in last 5 starts after 50+ day break
by Shantou: 41 runs over 4m+ by his offspring have yielded 1 winner (13 ran in GNs, none finishing closer than 45L and 10 failed to complete)
VANILLIER
Is nailed on because:
runs off same GNOR147 as when strong-finishing, close 2nd to Corach Rambler in 2023 on GS (will likely get GS this time but handles it softer)
form muted since but galvanised by application of blinkers in Feb - winning with same career-best RPR154 as for that GN near-miss (GNOR +7lbs - average of last 11 winners +8lbs)
followed up with strong-finishing 3rd in Festival XC last outing - would have been a lot closer had jockey not taken wrong course, possibly neck and neck with winner
Has no chance because:
no 10 year-old has won a GN since 2011 (111 runners have tried since then = 23.8% of fields)
no previously-placed horse has won a GN since Amberleigh House in 2004, and that was a fluke (Clan Royal's jockey losing his whip, allowing him to wander and give up the lead on the line). Prior to that, none had done so since Hallo Dandy in 1984
it's 141 years since the GN winner's name started with the letter "V"
Peanuts, Who do you think will be the early leader? Any horse who can build a lead will avoid trouble and even if it can't get the distance it will be a good back to lay.
Peanuts, Who do you think will be the early leader? Any horse who can build a lead will avoid trouble and even if it can't get the distance it will be a good back to lay.
Hewick will definitely be prominent. So too perhaps: Threeunderthrufive Intense Raffles Beauport is generally prominent and presumably they'll want to make the most of his proven stamina Vanillier possibly, as he's proven over the trip
Kandoo Kid often races prominent but I guess (hope) they'll want to be conservative first time beyond 26f Coko Beach likes to be prominent as well but they'll presumably want to try to eke out his stamina to the max
Also, expect some of those running to give their owners a day out: Horantzau d'Airy, Minella Drama and Idas Boy to want to hang in with the leaders for as long as possible, if they can keep up with Hewick!
I think Beauport has a chance of being placed. I will do a combination tricast on the day. I actually predicted the first three in correct order the year Lescargot won. My dad did it on the pools coupon for something like a quarter of a penny. If he had done it in the bookies we would have won enough to buy a house.
put them up then RKB, be interesting to see how they pan out
I have narrowed it down to four. So one will have to go. Kandoo Kid and Beauport will make the cut. Minella Cocooner and Perceval Legallois are my other two.
2013: 2 horses finished 1~4 that had previously placed 1~4
(from 5 runners attempting the feat)
2014: 0 (from 1)
2015: 1 (4)
2016: 0 (2)
2017: 1 (2)
2018: 0 (3)
2019: 1 (5)
2021: 0 (3)
2022: 1 (3)
2023: 1 (3)
2024: 1 (4)
In aggregate, 35 horses that had previously finished 1~4 in
a GN have run again since 2013 (8.2% of runners).
8 of them have made the first 1~4 again (of course only 1 of
them subsequently winning).
That's 18.2% of those places and a repeat-placing
outperformance factor of x2.2.
So, all others have underperformed their representation by a
factor of 0.89, which means that, statistically, a horse that has previously
placed 1~4 in a GN is almost 2.5 times more likely to place 1~4 again than the random other runner gain their first 1~4 finish.
put them up then RKB, be interesting to see how they pan out
I have narrowed it down to four. So one will have to go. Kandoo Kid and Beauport will make the cut. Minella Cocooner and Perceval Legallois are my other two.
put them up then RKB, be interesting to see how they pan out
I have narrowed it down to four. So one will have to go. Kandoo Kid and Beauport will make the cut. Minella Cocooner and Perceval Legallois are my other two.
4 horse combination tricast it is then
If i worked it out right that will be 24 tricasts and 12 forecasts. £36 stake
You just can't keep an incredible horse out of the news. He even has the ability to get jockey's into trouble with the BHA as Ryan Mania has been fined £80 for not carrying a whip on Saturday because the horse has an aversion to them!
You just can't keep an incredible horse out of the news. He even has the ability to get jockey's into trouble with the BHA as Ryan Mania has been fined £80 for not carrying a whip on Saturday because the horse has an aversion to them!
You just can't keep an incredible horse out of the news. He even has the ability to get jockey's into trouble with the BHA as Ryan Mania has been fined £80 for not carrying a whip on Saturday because the horse has an aversion to them!
What a cretinous rule.
Seems unbelievable that after all the discussion on whip bans that it is now mandatory to carry one. What next fines for dropping them during a race?
Can't not have a real long shot running to win and thought 66s was just too big for Senior Chief, so had a nibble e/w even though it’s only 5 places. Seems others thought the same as he’s now 50s best price. Will still have a shilling at extended places if the price looks right when they’re offered.
Maybe someone knows which horse Rachael will choose
Still 50s, like Indo. i think it was just bet365 were out of line at 66.
Senior Chief still attracting money - available at 33s for 6 places but a number have cut him to 25s now. Perhaps there is a view that Rachel will choose him. There are some very interesting sectionals, courtesy of a GN blogger, for the Coral GC (in which he stayed on strongly into 6th) which show him quickening over the last furlong, rather than simply staying on past tired horses. Glad to have had a nibble e/w at 66 but will look to top up with extended places when they're offered.
Minella Indo is 20/1 for 6 places but 50s if you're content with 5. I rewatched his season's bow in a Grade 3 at Puchestown over 23f on Gd/Y, in which he really ran a nice race, close 2nd in just 2.8 secs slow of std - Hewick was 4.5L behind giving Indo 6lbs. He gives him 4lbs in the GN and is generally 12s. 3rd last year, at the end of his stamina on Soft, a most unlikely winner but there's plenty worse e/w value than the old boy.
Comments
what are the horses selected at this stage? Thanks in advance
ERRATA
Apologies folks. Realised I’d made a boo-boo and wouldn’t want you to be tripped up by some know-it-all down the pub.
The corrected version:
Has no chance because:
1 KANDOO KID
2 VANILLIER and MINELLA COCOONER
4 IROKO
5 INTENSE RAFFLES
He may get a few kicks on the way mind.
Like my 66-1 ante post ticket now.
And they're approaching The Elbow .... thank Gawd
STAY AWAY FAY
Is nailed on to win because:
Has no chance because:
VELVET ELVIS
Is nailed on because:
Has no chance because:
MINELLA DRAMA
Is nailed on because:
Has no chance because:
MONBEG GENIUS
Is nailed on because:
- run well in big chases at 25f+ in last 2 years: close 3rd in 2023 Ultima, 3rd in the 2023 Coral GC (same OR147 as now) and 4th in December's Welsh GN under 11.10, culminating in career-best RPR152 when winning last time out (GNOR+5lbs)
- from family of GN4th It takes Time, each of first 3 damsires have GN connections: DS Supreme Leader was Damsire of GN2nd & 4th Oscar Time and sired 2002 near-misser Whats Up Boys; 2nd damsire Fourstars Allstar was damsire of Corach Rambler; and 3rd damsire Be My Native was damsire of GN 2nd Black Apalachi and 4th
Has no chance because:VANILLIER
Is nailed on because:
- runs off same GNOR147 as when strong-finishing, close 2nd to Corach Rambler in 2023 on GS (will likely get GS this time but handles it softer)
- form muted since but galvanised by application of blinkers in Feb - winning with same career-best RPR154 as for that GN near-miss (GNOR +7lbs - average of last 11 winners +8lbs)
- followed up with strong-finishing 3rd in Festival XC last outing - would have been a lot closer had jockey not taken wrong course, possibly neck and neck with winner
Has no chance because:So too perhaps:
Threeunderthrufive
Intense Raffles
Beauport is generally prominent and presumably they'll want to make the most of his proven stamina
Vanillier possibly, as he's proven over the trip
Kandoo Kid often races prominent but I guess (hope) they'll want to be conservative first time beyond 26f
Coko Beach likes to be prominent as well but they'll presumably want to try to eke out his stamina to the max
Also, expect some of those running to give their owners a day out: Horantzau d'Airy, Minella Drama and Idas Boy to want to hang in with the leaders for as long as possible, if they can keep up with Hewick!
2013: 2 horses finished 1~4 that had previously placed 1~4 (from 5 runners attempting the feat)
2014: 0 (from 1)
2015: 1 (4)
2016: 0 (2)
2017: 1 (2)
2018: 0 (3)
2019: 1 (5)
2021: 0 (3)
2022: 1 (3)
2023: 1 (3)
2024: 1 (4)
In aggregate, 35 horses that had previously finished 1~4 in a GN have run again since 2013 (8.2% of runners).
8 of them have made the first 1~4 again (of course only 1 of them subsequently winning).
That's 18.2% of those places and a repeat-placing outperformance factor of x2.2.
So, all others have underperformed their representation by a factor of 0.89, which means that, statistically, a horse that has previously placed 1~4 in a GN is almost 2.5 times more likely to place 1~4 again than the random other runner gain their first 1~4 finish.
This year's previous 1st~4th finishers:
Prior runs: BD in 2001 and 3rd in 2003.
Black Apalachi nearly did so in 2010 when 5L 2nd to Dont Push It - had previously F in 2008 and UR in 2009.
Perhaps there is a view that Rachel will choose him.
There are some very interesting sectionals, courtesy of a GN blogger, for the Coral GC (in which he stayed on strongly into 6th) which show him quickening over the last furlong, rather than simply staying on past tired horses. Glad to have had a nibble e/w at 66 but will look to top up with extended places when they're offered.
Minella Indo is 20/1 for 6 places but 50s if you're content with 5.
I rewatched his season's bow in a Grade 3 at Puchestown over 23f on Gd/Y, in which he really ran a nice race, close 2nd in just 2.8 secs slow of std - Hewick was 4.5L behind giving Indo 6lbs. He gives him 4lbs in the GN and is generally 12s.
3rd last year, at the end of his stamina on Soft, a most unlikely winner but there's plenty worse e/w value than the old boy.