I will be doing Kandoo Kid, Beauport, Minella Cocooner in combination forecasts and tricasts. I already backed Kandoo Kid to win at 28/1 so i will lay him in play at a much lower price, maybe 4/1 to guarantee a profit. I will also lay a few in play at low odds hoping they run out of steam.
Looks like Rachel will be on Minella Indo with Darragh OKeeffe on Senior Chief. Once again thank you Peanuts for all your efforts and insights this year and let's hope for a bit of luck.
Mullins has been usurped by Mark Goldstein at Plumpton - 3 rides, 3 winners for a 2,872/1 treble and he still has an 11/8 shot to come (Macari in the 4.50). His dad, Ray, used to be the top jockey at Plumpton and I hope that Marc's family and friends have lumped on with their yankees!
Time of Foxhunters 5m 30.29s suggests ground is riding Gd(GS). They'll keep watering liberally but, as the jockies were reporting the hurdles course drying out in between races this pm, and with blue skies all the way, it's highly likely to be similar going on Saturday.
Lifetime Ambition's nice run in 3rd (might have been closer with a more assertive ride early doors) lends further support to the theory about Kapgarde's liking flat, galloping tracks and a decent surface. LA is his only offspring running today. LA is also a rep of mtDNA N2a, the outperforming mtDNA in GNs since 2015. Kandoo Kid is, similarly, a son of Kapgarde and has mtDNA N2a.
Mullins has been usurped by Marc Goldstein at Plumpton - 3 rides, 3 winners for a 2,872/1 treble and he still has an 11/8 shot to come (Macari in the 4.50). His dad, Ray, used to be the top jockey at Plumpton and I hope that Marc's family and friends hav
even at SP
e lumped on with their yankees!
Macari won at Evens - so 4/4 for Marc a 5,745/1 acca. A £1 Lucky 15 would have paid £12,126.40 (including 10% bonus) to a total stake of £15. And that's at SP so the chances are that it would have paid a lot more at early prices.
Peanuts, can you give some predictions based on your fancied horses but revised for likely fast ground?
I was going for Beauport and Senior Chief, but hesitating now.
Senior Chief will love the ground. I've given up a ground-tweak to my selections after doing the hokey-cokey with Kittys Light last year, thankfully going back in before the Off. Of my top 5, I'm happy with the Gd/GS ground for all of them, even if the market thinks Iroko prefers soft. I'm not convinced that's right. That last run at Kelso (his best chase RPR) was on GS in a quickish time. Vanillier was 2nd 2 years ago on this ground. Minella Cocooner is much better on Spring ground, exactly like this. Kandoo Kid won the Coral GC on GS.
PS, re the ground @Gisappointed , other than obviously Royale Pagaille, the one I would be worried about if I’d backed him is I Am Maximus. It’s understandable as the Mullins/Townend runner he’s getting big support. But he can get a long way behind in his races, even on testing ground and he’s going to find it a lot harder to reel them in on this ground. I love the horse but he’s not for me this year.
Good to see Paul Nicholls form picking up. Winner in the last chase of the day at Aintree today makes it 3 wins from 8 runners so far this month, RTF rising now to 62%.
Struggling to find value in the Top Finish market. Would like to back Bravemansgame for a top 8 finish but 3.33/1 (30/1 each way for 8 places, when he's 50/1 for 6 places) is too thin to be worthwhile. Maybe we’ll see some drift as the favourites shorten on the day.
Best value extra bet remains, by a long way, the Group To Finish (B - the Mullins 4) at 12/1 IMHO.
I have backed Glengouly and The Goffer for the Topham. Both non-stayers of the National trip but will enjoy the ground and ran and jumped well over these fences previously.
These Top Finish prices are absolute shite on Bet365 Only 9 of the 34 - the utter rank outsiders, offered at 80/1 and longer to win - are priced higher than the random chance for a Top 8 finish.
Snippets of value on the Betfair Exchange for certain of the 50/1 types, which is where I'm dangling my rod.
These Top Finish prices are absolute shite on Bet365 Only 9 of the 34 - the utter rank outsiders, offered at 80/1 and longer to win - are priced higher than the random chance for a Top 8 finish.
Snippets of value on the Betfair Exchange for certain of the 50/1 types, which is where I'm dangling my rod.
Given that, no matter how much water they put on the track, it just keeps quickening during the day, and will do so again tomorrow, I'd be shocked if I Am Maximus starts favourite tomorrow. It should (and I think will) be Hewick.
My model rates Hewick's pedigree as consistent with Minor Place Potential BUT, if we're going to be racing on ground that facilitates the fastest GN since the fence changes, there could be a slightly different profile that excels.
One pedigree factor potentially in his favour is that he shares Tiger Roll's B1a mitochondrial DNA. 14 GN runners (13 horses) with that mtDNA have run since 2013 and only the Tiger's scored, though Goonyella was 5th in 2016. But he has none of the many other strong traits of Tiger's breeding and to give further perspective, from 1988~2012, when ground conditions were sometimes quick, 29 of them ran and none made the frame.
I continue to have faith in my model's assessment and say he'll run a huge race but no cigar.
Comments
Cheers @Starinnaddick
Fingers crossed. All the best.
That Group B of 4 Mullins GN runners to Finish is still there at 12/1.
Looking more and more like a steal by the hour IMHO.
They'll keep watering liberally but, as the jockies were reporting the hurdles course drying out in between races this pm, and with blue skies all the way, it's highly likely to be similar going on Saturday.
LA is also a rep of mtDNA N2a, the outperforming mtDNA in GNs since 2015.
Kandoo Kid is, similarly, a son of Kapgarde and has mtDNA N2a.
I was going for Beauport and Senior Chief, but hesitating now.
I've given up a ground-tweak to my selections after doing the hokey-cokey with Kittys Light last year, thankfully going back in before the Off.
Of my top 5, I'm happy with the Gd/GS ground for all of them, even if the market thinks Iroko prefers soft. I'm not convinced that's right. That last run at Kelso (his best chase RPR) was on GS in a quickish time.
Vanillier was 2nd 2 years ago on this ground.
Minella Cocooner is much better on Spring ground, exactly like this.
Kandoo Kid won the Coral GC on GS.
No change to my top 5.
It’s understandable as the Mullins/Townend runner he’s getting big support.
But he can get a long way behind in his races, even on testing ground and he’s going to find it a lot harder to reel them in on this ground.
I love the horse but he’s not for me this year.
Winner in the last chase of the day at Aintree today makes it 3 wins from 8 runners so far this month, RTF rising now to 62%.
Would like to back Bravemansgame for a top 8 finish but 3.33/1 (30/1 each way for 8 places, when he's 50/1 for 6 places) is too thin to be worthwhile.
Maybe we’ll see some drift as the favourites shorten on the day.
Best value extra bet remains, by a long way, the Group To Finish (B - the Mullins 4) at 12/1 IMHO.
I will have an interest in the Topham but am otherwise engaged this am, so will be a late one.
Apologies.
I trust all boots were filled.
Only 9 of the 34 - the utter rank outsiders, offered at 80/1 and longer to win - are priced higher than the random chance for a Top 8 finish.
Snippets of value on the Betfair Exchange for certain of the 50/1 types, which is where I'm dangling my rod.
No model here, just my very untrusty hooter.
My model rates Hewick's pedigree as consistent with Minor Place Potential BUT, if we're going to be racing on ground that facilitates the fastest GN since the fence changes, there could be a slightly different profile that excels.
One pedigree factor potentially in his favour is that he shares Tiger Roll's B1a mitochondrial DNA.
14 GN runners (13 horses) with that mtDNA have run since 2013 and only the Tiger's scored, though Goonyella was 5th in 2016.
But he has none of the many other strong traits of Tiger's breeding and to give further perspective, from 1988~2012, when ground conditions were sometimes quick, 29 of them ran and none made the frame.
I continue to have faith in my model's assessment and say he'll run a huge race but no cigar.