Cheers Peanuts. Came out even thanks to the group B win. But as always I really enjoyed the analysis and build up. Makes me feel slightly less of a pin sticker!
1st, 3rd and 4th were all 2nd season chasers, from 12 running this year (35% of the field). That's 10 of last 11 GN winners, with only a back-to-back winner the exception and the only exception in the first 4 this year, the horse going for back-to-back wins. Getting close to a real red-line job if you're not a 2nd season chaser or returning Champ.
PS Our current dog is called Twiggy but thankfully limited the wager on Twig, demanded by Mrs Molloy, to a Fiver e/w (she has no idea I bet rather more than that on my model's picks .
lol!
Looks like heavier ground, weightier horses can do better than assumed on good ground. The weight didn't seem to matter, but stamina and pedigree stats did possibly.
Cheers Peanuts. Came out even thanks to the group B win. But as always I really enjoyed the analysis and build up. Makes me feel slightly less of a pin sticker!
Cheers @IdleHans Glad you've enjoyed my interminable ramblings. We'll hammer the sucker next year!!
1st, 3rd and 4th were all 2nd season chasers, from 12 running this year (35% of the field). That's 10 of last 11 GN winners, with only a back-to-back winner the exception and the only exception in the first 4 this year, the horse going for back-to-back wins. Getting close to a real red-line job if you're not a 2nd season chaser or returning Champ.
Courtesy of 2 places and my Group B bet, I've scored an 18% profit. Obviously disappointed not to be closer than 4th but 3 of my model's top 5 made the first 7. A flat tyre rather than a blown engine.
Nick Rockett had a strong place potential pedigree, according to my model, but carrying that weight was huge outlier. Max has the best pedigree in the race but that season's form stat (just as for the placed horses last year) needs a tweak. Iroko stayed on and definitely got the trip, as did Grangeclare West (really impressive) but Minella Cocooner didn't quite get home after making a few jumping mistakes. Senior Chief ran a blinder, always handy - just outclassed.
Will put a cold towel round my head over the next few days and rewatch the race to see quite what happened to Vanillier. That was a disappointment but possibly he got caught up in trouble at the back.
Sorry to miss the winner Chaps. Hope you had 6 places and lumped on the Group B bet or were simply a genius and backed The Rockett. Incredible.
Courtesy of 2 places and my Group B bet, I've scored an 18% profit. Obviously disappointed not to be closer than 4th but 3 of my model's top 5 made the first 7. A flat tyre rather than a blown engine.
Nick Rockett had a strong place potential pedigree, according to my model, but carrying that weight was huge outlier. Max has the best pedigree in the race but that season's form stat (just as for the placed horses last year) needs a tweak. Iroko stayed on and definitely got the trip, as did Grangeclare West (really impressive) but Minella Cocooner didn't quite get home after making a few jumping mistakes. Senior Chief ran a blinder, always handy - just outclassed.
Will put a cold towel round my head over the next few days and rewatch the race to see quite what happened to Vanillier. That was a disappointment but possibly he got caught up in trouble at the back.
Sorry to miss the winner Chaps. Hope you had 6 places and lumped on the Group B bet or were simply a genius and backed The Rockett. Incredible.
As we sat at Gatwick airport, waiting for our flight, the wife has a premonition about a course called ‘Nick’ winning the GN. At that moment, I opened a book that was dedicated to ‘Nick’ so we lumped on Nick Rockett! Result, but very spooky and 100% true! She says she’ll run your model for you next year. Lol
Courtesy of 2 places and my Group B bet, I've scored an 18% profit. Obviously disappointed not to be closer than 4th but 3 of my model's top 5 made the first 7. A flat tyre rather than a blown engine.
Nick Rockett had a strong place potential pedigree, according to my model, but carrying that weight was huge outlier. Max has the best pedigree in the race but that season's form stat (just as for the placed horses last year) needs a tweak. Iroko stayed on and definitely got the trip, as did Grangeclare West (really impressive) but Minella Cocooner didn't quite get home after making a few jumping mistakes. Senior Chief ran a blinder, always handy - just outclassed.
Will put a cold towel round my head over the next few days and rewatch the race to see quite what happened to Vanillier. That was a disappointment but possibly he got caught up in trouble at the back.
Sorry to miss the winner Chaps. Hope you had 6 places and lumped on the Group B bet or were simply a genius and backed The Rockett. Incredible.
Courtesy of 2 places and my Group B bet, I've scored an 18% profit. Obviously disappointed not to be closer than 4th but 3 of my model's top 5 made the first 7. A flat tyre rather than a blown engine.
Nick Rockett had a strong place potential pedigree, according to my model, but carrying that weight was huge outlier. Max has the best pedigree in the race but that season's form stat (just as for the placed horses last year) needs a tweak. Iroko stayed on and definitely got the trip, as did Grangeclare West (really impressive) but Minella Cocooner didn't quite get home after making a few jumping mistakes. Senior Chief ran a blinder, always handy - just outclassed.
Will put a cold towel round my head over the next few days and rewatch the race to see quite what happened to Vanillier. That was a disappointment but possibly he got caught up in trouble at the back.
Sorry to miss the winner Chaps. Hope you had 6 places and lumped on the Group B bet or were simply a genius and backed The Rockett. Incredible.
As we sat at Gatwick airport, waiting for our flight, the wife has a premonition about a course called ‘Nick’ winning the GN. At that moment, I opened a book that was dedicated to ‘Nick’ so we lumped on Nick Rockett! Result, but very spooky and 100% true! She says she’ll run your model for you next year. Lol
It’s all hers Many congratulations to Mrs Meldrew. The Rockett made mugs of a lot of stat-followers but a great and worthy winner. Given me a lot of food for thought about the Racing CV Stats for a GN nowadays. Mulling over quite a radical simplification to that component of my model.
I assume you’re off on hols and, if so, have a fantastic time. Cheers @meldrew66
If I stripped back the Racing CV stat-tests (which comprise half of my model) from 14 tests to just 1 - namely, excepting only last year’s winner, eliminate all horses that are not 1st or 2nd season chasers. That would have made a Long List of 13 from the 34 that lined up today. And then if I applied to that Long List my existing Pedigree screen to include only those with at least Strong Place Potential, today I would have backed just 5 horses:
Nick Rockett - 1st I Am Maximus - 2nd Iroko - 4th Senior Chief - 6th Kandoo Kid - Fell
Sporting Life race summary confirms that Minella Cocooner’s saddle slipped at the 1st fence. No wonder he appeared to make several mistakes. An incredible ride by Jonathan Burke to get him round, let alone be in contention at the last. He didn’t think he quite stayed the trip, which certainly seemed the case. Great effort though - a PU would have bombed Group B. Cheers Jonathan.
If I stripped back the Racing CV stat-tests (which comprise half of my model) from 14 tests to just 1 - namely, excepting only last year’s winner, eliminate all horses that are not 1st or 2nd season chasers. That would have made a Long List of 13 from the 34 that lined up today. And then if I applied to that Long List my existing Pedigree screen to include only those with at least Strong Place Potential, today I would have backed just 5 horses:
Nick Rockett - 1st I Am Maximus - 2nd Iroko - 4th Senior Chief - 6th Kandoo Kid - Fell
Hmm, food for thought.
Interesting indeed. Also, that after all the hype on 7 year olds only Iroko made it tops. I didn't trust they will stay the trip, and looks I was right.
Sporting Life race summary confirms that Minella Cocooner’s saddle slipped at the 1st fence. No wonder he appeared to make several mistakes. An incredible ride by Jonathan Burke to get him round, let alone be in contention at the last. He didn’t think he quite stayed the trip, which certainly seemed the case. Great effort though - a PU would have bombed Group B. Cheers Jonathan.
If I stripped back the Racing CV stat-tests (which comprise half of my model) from 14 tests to just 1 - namely, excepting only last year’s winner, eliminate all horses that are not 1st or 2nd season chasers. That would have made a Long List of 13 from the 34 that lined up today. And then if I applied to that Long List my existing Pedigree screen to include only those with at least Strong Place Potential, today I would have backed just 5 horses:
Nick Rockett - 1st I Am Maximus - 2nd Iroko - 4th Senior Chief - 6th Kandoo Kid - Fell
Hmm, food for thought.
Interesting indeed. Also, that after all the hype on 7 year olds only Iroko made it tops. I didn't trust they will stay the trip, and looks I was right.
Agreed. Obviously they can now be competitive, compared to the pre-2103 era BUT the 8yos have a clear advantage in maturity.
If I stripped back the Racing CV stat-tests (which comprise half of my model) from 14 tests to just 1 - namely, excepting only last year’s winner, eliminate all horses that are not 1st or 2nd season chasers. That would have made a Long List of 13 from the 34 that lined up today. And then if I applied to that Long List my existing Pedigree screen to include only those with at least Strong Place Potential, today I would have backed just 5 horses:
Nick Rockett - 1st I Am Maximus - 2nd Iroko - 4th Senior Chief - 6th Kandoo Kid - Fell
Hmm, food for thought.
Interesting indeed. Also, that after all the hype on 7 year olds only Iroko made it tops. I didn't trust they will stay the trip, and looks I was right.
Agreed. Obviously they can now be competitive, compared to the pre-2103 era BUT the 8yos have a clear advantage in maturity.
I wonder if Broadway Boy would place had he finished. I hope he won't get scared off the National if he recuperates ok.
Courtesy of 2 places and my Group B bet, I've scored an 18% profit. Obviously disappointed not to be closer than 4th but 3 of my model's top 5 made the first 7. A flat tyre rather than a blown engine.
Nick Rockett had a strong place potential pedigree, according to my model, but carrying that weight was huge outlier. Max has the best pedigree in the race but that season's form stat (just as for the placed horses last year) needs a tweak. Iroko stayed on and definitely got the trip, as did Grangeclare West (really impressive) but Minella Cocooner didn't quite get home after making a few jumping mistakes. Senior Chief ran a blinder, always handy - just outclassed.
Will put a cold towel round my head over the next few days and rewatch the race to see quite what happened to Vanillier. That was a disappointment but possibly he got caught up in trouble at the back.
Sorry to miss the winner Chaps. Hope you had 6 places and lumped on the Group B bet or were simply a genius and backed The Rockett. Incredible.
Courtesy of 2 places and my Group B bet, I've scored an 18% profit. Obviously disappointed not to be closer than 4th but 3 of my model's top 5 made the first 7. A flat tyre rather than a blown engine.
Nick Rockett had a strong place potential pedigree, according to my model, but carrying that weight was huge outlier. Max has the best pedigree in the race but that season's form stat (just as for the placed horses last year) needs a tweak. Iroko stayed on and definitely got the trip, as did Grangeclare West (really impressive) but Minella Cocooner didn't quite get home after making a few jumping mistakes. Senior Chief ran a blinder, always handy - just outclassed.
Will put a cold towel round my head over the next few days and rewatch the race to see quite what happened to Vanillier. That was a disappointment but possibly he got caught up in trouble at the back.
Sorry to miss the winner Chaps. Hope you had 6 places and lumped on the Group B bet or were simply a genius and backed The Rockett. Incredible.
As we sat at Gatwick airport, waiting for our flight, the wife has a premonition about a course called ‘Nick’ winning the GN. At that moment, I opened a book that was dedicated to ‘Nick’ so we lumped on Nick Rockett! Result, but very spooky and 100% true! She says she’ll run your model for you next year. Lol
It’s all hers Many congratulations to Mrs Meldrew. The Rockett made mugs of a lot of stat-followers but a great and worthy winner. Given me a lot of food for thought about the Racing CV Stats for a GN nowadays. Mulling over quite a radical simplification to that component of my model.
I assume you’re off on hols and, if so, have a fantastic time. Cheers @meldrew66
Here's the latest coincidence Peanuts: the hotel right outside ours in Ibiza! The signs we're here too!
I was on Grangeclare West but probably more frustrating thing for me is this - I've been moaning about and praising in equal measure the monopoly and genius of Willie Mullins for years but didn't bother doing what I have done in previous such races and that is a combination F/C and T/C on his horses.
The F/C paid £222.48 and the T/C £7,665.04 so, for say a 50p F/C and 10p T/C (total stake £24) the return would have been £877.74. What it would have been paid Grangeclare West got up for even second probably isn't worth contemplating.
Anyway, ifs and buts we move on. Looking forward to reading your input, as always, along the way next year Peanuts.
Courtesy of 2 places and my Group B bet, I've scored an 18% profit. Obviously disappointed not to be closer than 4th but 3 of my model's top 5 made the first 7. A flat tyre rather than a blown engine.
Nick Rockett had a strong place potential pedigree, according to my model, but carrying that weight was huge outlier. Max has the best pedigree in the race but that season's form stat (just as for the placed horses last year) needs a tweak. Iroko stayed on and definitely got the trip, as did Grangeclare West (really impressive) but Minella Cocooner didn't quite get home after making a few jumping mistakes. Senior Chief ran a blinder, always handy - just outclassed.
Will put a cold towel round my head over the next few days and rewatch the race to see quite what happened to Vanillier. That was a disappointment but possibly he got caught up in trouble at the back.
Sorry to miss the winner Chaps. Hope you had 6 places and lumped on the Group B bet or were simply a genius and backed The Rockett. Incredible.
Courtesy of 2 places and my Group B bet, I've scored an 18% profit. Obviously disappointed not to be closer than 4th but 3 of my model's top 5 made the first 7. A flat tyre rather than a blown engine.
Nick Rockett had a strong place potential pedigree, according to my model, but carrying that weight was huge outlier. Max has the best pedigree in the race but that season's form stat (just as for the placed horses last year) needs a tweak. Iroko stayed on and definitely got the trip, as did Grangeclare West (really impressive) but Minella Cocooner didn't quite get home after making a few jumping mistakes. Senior Chief ran a blinder, always handy - just outclassed.
Will put a cold towel round my head over the next few days and rewatch the race to see quite what happened to Vanillier. That was a disappointment but possibly he got caught up in trouble at the back.
Sorry to miss the winner Chaps. Hope you had 6 places and lumped on the Group B bet or were simply a genius and backed The Rockett. Incredible.
As we sat at Gatwick airport, waiting for our flight, the wife has a premonition about a course called ‘Nick’ winning the GN. At that moment, I opened a book that was dedicated to ‘Nick’ so we lumped on Nick Rockett! Result, but very spooky and 100% true! She says she’ll run your model for you next year. Lol
It’s all hers Many congratulations to Mrs Meldrew. The Rockett made mugs of a lot of stat-followers but a great and worthy winner. Given me a lot of food for thought about the Racing CV Stats for a GN nowadays. Mulling over quite a radical simplification to that component of my model.
I assume you’re off on hols and, if so, have a fantastic time. Cheers @meldrew66
Here's the latest coincidence Peanuts: the hotel right outside ours in Ibiza! The signs we're here too!
It's all your bloody fault @meldrew66 If you'd have gone on hols a day earlier you could have tipped us all off in time. "Mystic Mrs Meldrew"
I was on Grangeclare West but probably more frustrating thing for me is this - I've been moaning about and praising in equal measure the monopoly and genius of Willie Mullins for years but didn't bother doing what I have done in previous such races and that is a combination F/C and T/C on his horses.
The F/C paid £222.48 and the T/C £7,665.04 so, for say a 50p F/C and 10p T/C (total stake £24) the return would have been £877.74. What it would have been paid Grangeclare West got up for even second probably isn't worth contemplating.
Anyway, ifs and buts we move on. Looking forward to reading your input, as always, along the way next year Peanuts.
Cheers @Addick Addict Bad luck - a great pick. It would have been bloody close but for the last. All the best.
Comments
1st, 3rd and 4th were all 2nd season chasers, from 12 running this year (35% of the field).
That's 10 of last 11 GN winners, with only a back-to-back winner the exception and the only exception in the first 4 this year, the horse going for back-to-back wins.
Getting close to a real red-line job if you're not a 2nd season chaser or returning Champ.
Looks like heavier ground, weightier horses can do better than assumed on good ground. The weight didn't seem to matter, but stamina and pedigree stats did possibly.
Cheers, PM!
Glad you've enjoyed my interminable ramblings.
We'll hammer the sucker next year!!
Cheers @Big_Bob
Glad you enjoyed the thread.
Let’s hope for another 25 May Wembley Party.
All the best to you too.
Many congratulations to Mrs Meldrew. The Rockett made mugs of a lot of stat-followers but a great and worthy winner.
Given me a lot of food for thought about the Racing CV Stats for a GN nowadays.
Mulling over quite a radical simplification to that component of my model.
Cheers @meldrew66
That would have made a Long List of 13 from the 34 that lined up today.
And then if I applied to that Long List my existing Pedigree screen to include only those with at least Strong Place Potential, today I would have backed just 5 horses:
I Am Maximus - 2nd
Iroko - 4th
Senior Chief - 6th
Kandoo Kid - Fell
Hmm, food for thought.
No wonder he appeared to make several mistakes. An incredible ride by Jonathan Burke to get him round, let alone be in contention at the last.
He didn’t think he quite stayed the trip, which certainly seemed the case.
Great effort though - a PU would have bombed Group B.
Cheers Jonathan.
Bet365 also refunded my £5 on Chuks last goal as he didn't start. Don't know if they would had paid out had he netted a winner.
You’re so self-obsessed @“HenryIrving”
Obviously they can now be competitive, compared to the pre-2103 era BUT the 8yos have a clear advantage in maturity.
Damn right.
The F/C paid £222.48 and the T/C £7,665.04 so, for say a 50p F/C and 10p T/C (total stake £24) the return would have been £877.74. What it would have been paid Grangeclare West got up for even second probably isn't worth contemplating.
Anyway, ifs and buts we move on. Looking forward to reading your input, as always, along the way next year Peanuts.
If you'd have gone on hols a day earlier you could have tipped us all off in time.
"Mystic Mrs Meldrew"
Bad luck - a great pick. It would have been bloody close but for the last.
All the best.