Do you think, PM, will Intense Raffles run at Fairyhouse? 2.2 weeks break, he's done half of the GN. Better ground for him. I have a bet but am worried he won't be there.
I would have thought so, if they’re happy with him. As you say, Soft ground at his beloved Fairyhouse and not bottomed at Aintree. Ideal.
Thoughts turning to lessons from this year's GN, it very much looks like the reduction in field size, and (thus far at least) the increase in runners still in contention crossing the Melling Road, may represent another watershed in the race for trend-followers.
If you haven't seen it, the RP's Chris Cook's summary is very interesting:
So now we've had two Grand Nationals since the field-size limit was reduced to 34. Last year's race looked markedly different from the race we were used to, while Saturday's version contained more in the way of midrace incident.
But I think I've spotted one way in which both differed from previous Nationals. Last year, I Am Maximus jumped the third-last fence in a restrained ninth place, hard to spot behind a bunched pack. On Saturday, Nick Rockett was also in ninth over the third-last, cruising along as various rivals did each other in ahead of him.
Why is that remarkable? Because in the previous 40 Nationals, just one winner had been that far back in the field at that stage. Full marks if you named One For Arthur, who was only 11th as he cleared the third-last, the most relaxed ride a National winner has been given in recent times.
From Grittar in 1982 to Corach Rambler in 2023, no other National winner was further back than sixth over the third-last. Most of them were already prominent and clearly fighting it out, even though there was a long way to go.
No fewer than 15 of those 40 winners led over the third-last. Back in the 80s and 90s, that was the right place to be; whichever horse was in front at that stage went on to win more than half the time.
Sometimes, like Rhyme 'N' Reason, they would give up the lead after that point, only to wrestle it back. More often, like Grittar or Little Polveir or Mr Frisk or Royal Athlete, they would just keep on chugging remorselessly.
It happened so often in those days, I wonder that more wasn't made of it. "Papillon clears the third-last in front, which means he's probably going to win, and over to Peter O'Sullevan..."
Ruby Walsh knew the score. He had both of his National winners in front over the third-last.
But that approach seemed to go out of fashion after Hedgehunter's year in 2005. Since then, only Ballabriggs and Many Clouds have led over the third-last and gone on to victory.
We've now had nine consecutive Nationals where the winner has been waiting to pounce at that point, rather than playing 'catch me if you can'. It's the longest such run since the 60s, at least.
An obvious reason for the change is that far more horses are in contention at a late stage these days. In my first National, the race had boiled down to Greasepaint or Hallo Dandy by the third-last. Four years later, there were only three who had a realistic chance of getting to Rhyme 'N' Reason.
In an old-school National, there would have been fallers and unseated riders and some of the hold-up horses would have run into trouble. Maybe four or five would still have a chance after Valentine's.
Clearly, that's not going to be the way of it in years to come. On Saturday, more than half the field were giving their backers some kind of hope after 25 fences.
The new style National will tend to put a greater emphasis on stamina. Having more horses involved for longer should mean a strong pace is sustained.
Hence the reward for the restraint shown by Patrick Mullins on Saturday, and by Paul Townend last year. The plots of these Nationals didn't develop until a much later stage than the ones I remember from the 80s.
Look at what happened to the group of seven that led the field back towards the grandstands. In front were Celebre D'Allen, who tired rapidly from the second-last and was pulled up, and Beauport, eventually 12th.
Grangeclare West (who finished third) and Minella Cocooner (seventh) were right behind, tracked by Senior Chief (fifth), Bravemansgame (15th) and Hewick (eighth). In other words, only one of that leading group made it into the places. Back in the 80s and 90s, that leading group would have fought out the finish.
This is what makes me think that Grangeclare West got drawn into the heat of the argument two or three fences earlier than ideal. While he was being urged to go after the leaders, the two who would eventually beat him were further back and being allowed to creep into it.
If I'm right, how does this help us as punters in the future? I'd say we're looking for stamina-laden runners whose jockeys will protect them from the heat of battle for as long as possible. But, even more than in the past, we're going to have to trust that the jockey concerned will deliver the right ride.
It's also interesting that the smaller-field National has so far favoured the class horses. Those set to carry less than 11 stone used to make up the majority of winners but Iroko (fourth) has been the only horse carrying less than 11st 4lb to get placed in the last two runnings.
Only 3 horses ran the last furlong quicker than they ran the penultimate furlong - Nick Rockett (15.87secs v 16.02s) and which others? Not Max; nor Grangeclare West, though he was close to doing so.
They were Iroko in 4th (15.9s v 16.09s) and, at a slower pace, Senior Chief in 6th (16.22s v 16.29).
Virtually matching the winner's finishing speed, there's no question that Iroko saw the trip out well. He looks particularly interesting for next year when (hopefully) returning as an 8yo and potentially off the same mark.
Iroko definitely on my short list already. Pitty about Minella Cocooner's saddle, he'll be 10 next year so probably out of the chances. We might guess the horses well but what a given jockey is going to do is another matter. And if all jockeys tried the 'creeping into it', that would make a strange and probably slow race. Possibly having a leading horse from the same stable to take a 'fake' fast lead while the winner waits could be a way to do it, but you'd be sacrificing someone else's chances.
Right old fuck up at Fairyhouse, with today's card abandoned and doubts over tomorrow. Standing water on the track after 21 mm overnight - unfortunately they'd been watering during the week. Could be an interesting Irish GN on Monday - changeable weather continuing. Don't rule out 13yo Any Second Now finally having his National victory.
I think we're way short of the quality of last year's renewal, in which ANY SECOND NOW was beaten just 1.5L. Off 1lb lower mark, there's absolutely no reason to believe the veteran's a spent force and he's Mark Walsh's choice of ride, once again. Especially with the ground likely Soft or worse, 18/1 (6 places) with BetVictor or 20s (5 places) with Lads looks excellent each way value to me.
If Mr Incredible was a reclamation project that failed, DUNBOYNE is one that may just succeed. A strong staying pedigree (closely related to the dour stayer Madame Parfois), even with quicker than ideal ground, he was a big disappointment in the 2023 Aintree GN and a year later ran another stinker on more suitable ground at Fairyhouse. Those were among 5 PUs in his final 6 outings for Gordon Elliott. He is a right monkey but a change of yard has seemingly rekindled his interest and he's 2 from 2 for new trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue, including a cosy win in last month's 28.5f Ulster National. If he is truly back in love with the game, he could run a massive race at 33/1 (6 places).
MALINA GIRL (16/1, 6 places), another Ulster National winner,will likely be matched with a stallion sometime soon. She ran a cracker in the Ultima last time out and though the form of that race is yet to check out, it was a strongly-run affair on ground that was on the quick side for her. A course winner, she'll appreciate Monday's more testing ground.
Best of the younger chasers IMHO is JOHNNYWHO (10/1), whose dam was 4th in this behind Numbersixvalverde (and won over 4 miles) and who's by Califet (sire of Midlands National winner Beauport). Strongly staying-on close 2nd in the Kim Muir (form of that looks decent) and has a big pull at the weights with the winner (Daily Present). The ride of top amateur Derek O'Connor, who gave him a peach of a ride at the Festival.
PS No model here - just my chequered punting instincts
Tullybeg and Hasthing scratched this morning, meaning that 2 Reserves (Will Do and Another Choice) make the 30-strong line up.
If I were using my Aintree GN Pedigree model, the 2 at the top of the weights, Better Days Ahead and Quai De Bourbon (Mullins/Townend), would be #2 and #1 respectively on my team sheet for tomorrow. However, with 11-05 (after a 7lb claim) and 11-06, for either to win would mean defying a 30-year stat that has set 11-04 as the highest winning weight. The stats don't stop them placing of course but, at 14s and 12s, they're too skinny to shoot for place only. If either should do the business or go close, according to my model, they'd be strong candidates for the 2026 Aintree GN as (then) 2nd season chasers.
1 Haiti Couleurs WINS - the "Brits" (alright, the Irish Brits) WIN AT LAST - and he sweated up badly before the Off. 2 Any Second Now ----- 2nd AGAIN at 13 years of age. What a fantastic horse. 3 Quai De Bourbon (could be an early 2026 Aintree selection, where he should be carrying a lot less weight) 4 Dunboyne - ran a cracker 5 Johnnywho
Can't complain with 3 of my 4 placing (though Johnny was win only sadly) but so close for the old boy and the reclamation project.
I'm happy about Any Second Now - for the horse and the owner, and because I had a bet too. But also slightly miffed at Haiti, whom I've cashed out recently - and then he didn't let ASN win, and won all sweaty too, damn it Had Dunboyne and Johnnywho 1/5 as well, so not all a loss.
I'm happy about Any Second Now - for the horse and the owner, and because I had a bet too. But also slightly miffed at Haiti, whom I've cashed out recently - and then he didn't let ASN win, and won all sweaty too, damn it Had Dunboyne and Johnnywho 1/5 as well, so not all a loss.
Very impressive win by Haiti. i can’t my head around his pedigree but will keep delving to try to figure it out. Obviously a serious talent.
I'm happy about Any Second Now - for the horse and the owner, and because I had a bet too. But also slightly miffed at Haiti, whom I've cashed out recently - and then he didn't let ASN win, and won all sweaty too, damn it Had Dunboyne and Johnnywho 1/5 as well, so not all a loss.
Very impressive win by Haiti. i can’t my head around his pedigree but will keep delving to try to figure it out. Obviously a serious talent.
Turns out HC's pedigree info, shown on www.pedigreequery.com (many people's go-to for detailed pedigree info), which shows a South American heritage, is plain wrong. A corrected version makes a hell of a lot more sense in explaining his ability - wish I'd seen it before yesterday
Quite a makeover of my model since 5 April, to focus primarily on the pedigree component, which has performed well over the last 2 GNs.
I'll bore you with the whys and wherefores in due course but the upshot is that the shiny new model facilitates taking a very early punt on those current 1st season chasers (who'll be in the sweet spot next April) with the strongest pedigrees for the task - hopefully, tasty prices. Obviously there's a lot of water to flow under a lot of bridges before we even know entries but, for fun, I had a nibble of the 40s for current 6 yo Quai De Bourbon after his 3rd in the Irish GN (well beaten but ran green to my eye and will have a more workable weight at Aintree), who has a pedigree quality to be in the mix at the business end of a GN, according to my model's estimations. He was the mount of Paul Townend at Fairyhouse.
And so too is tomorrow's 9/2 favourite for the Bet365 Gold Cup, High Class Hero - currently an 8 yo but also, like QDB, in his first season chasing. Scratched from the Irish GN and targeted at Sandown, he too has a very interesting pedigree for an Aintree GN - sired by Sulmani (sire of Rule The World), damsired by Turgeon (damsire of Vanillier) and sharing his rare mtDNA (L1a) with Noble Yeats. He's 50s for Aintree right now - but certainly won't be if he obliges tomorrow, so he’s my 2nd antepost nibble.
If Towend should stay with Quai, I wonder what will happen with Max. I have antepost bet for both mentined by PM.
I'll appreciate any haplo info (in due time) about some of the new GN runners, like Quai, Haiti, Jagwar, King Turgeon, Myretown...
Quickie on those, as regards their mtDNA haplotype and other pedigree facets (I'll do these one-by-one if you don't mind).
MYRETOWN
positives:
materially linebred (2 daughters and 1 son, 5s x 4d x 4D and 16.3% Additive Genetic Relationship) to Timeform 137-rated Reliance (son of Arc winner and genetically-influential Tantieme) - the son of Reliance is Proverb (Myretown's 2nd damsire and 3rd damsire of Grangeclare West). Only 4 horses to run in GNs since 2013 had comparable linebreeding to Reliance; they include Saint Are, Delta Work and The Last Samuri, though none had a son of Reliance so, theoretically, Myretown's is stronger.
related to 2002 GN4th (with 11-09) Kingsmark (his 4th dam was Kingsmark's 3rd dam).
negative:
his Family (14a) shares the mtDNA L2b1 with all branches of Family 14. This, with its near-identical L2b1a (Family 3), was the dominant mtDNA for GN success prior to 2013, with 2 winners (Earth Summit [Fam 14f] and Mon Mome [Fam 14]), from 37 runners 1988~2012 = x2.1 outperformance. Collectively with L2b1a, they produced 6 winners from 95 runners (= x2.4). HOWEVER, since 2013, the best run from any of the 38 runners with L2b1 or L2b1a (which, by random distribution, should have delivered 5 Top 5 finishes) has been Ain't That A Shame's 6th last year - despite L2b1 being represented by stayers Minella Rocco, The Young Master, Freewheelin Dylan (the best run for L2b1 specifically with 7th), Mighty Thunder and Nassalam (L2b1a represented by Ballyoptic, Thunder And Roses, Run Wild Fred, Chase The Spud and Beauport)
no Wild Risk anywhere in his pedigree: 142 GN runners since 2013 were likewise (31% of fields). They've produced zero winners, though they include a near-misser in Any Second Now, and 23% of first 5 home (underperformance x0.76).
My current thoughts: Like many, I backed him for the Ultima and he won impressively. But the form of that race has disappointed badly so far. If an L2b1-rep is going to break their modern-GN duck, with a sire that's a Northern Dancer descendant and that linebreeding to Reliance, he could well be the one. Overall, however, my model rates him unlikely to do so (more like a minor-place candidate at best), so he won't be on my team sheet.
1988~2012, I2a1 was a decent performer, batting above average with frame-making (14 Top 5 finishes from 109 runners = x1.26 outperformance), producing only 2 winners (Bindaree and Rough Quest) at x0.7 but 12 finishing 2nd (Garrison Savannah, Romany King, Just So, Suny Bay twice and Royal Auclair) or 3rd (x1.64 in terms of Top 3)
2013~2025 has been less successful but is hanging in there, with just 1 winner (Nick Rockett) from 58 runners (x0.66) but 6 other Top 5 Finishes (x0.93), including runner-up Balko Des Flos and 4th Galvin (also Fam 4n, like QDB).
So in general we should view I2a1 as neutral IMHO.
However, there is an interesting twist to that when it comes to QDB.
Because, QDB is inbred to I2a1 via both Sire (Ivanmhowe) and Damsire (Muhtathir).
While mtDNA is inherited only from the dam, many consider that the mtDNA of close male relatives can influence the interaction of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA in the physiology of their offspring.
Notably, both I2a1 winners pre-2013, Bindaree (sire) and Rough Quest (2nd damsire), and runners-up Suny Bay (sire), Just So (sire) and Garrison Savannah (damsire), were all inbred to I2a1 via sire or damsire 1 or 2 (i.e. within 3 Generations).
other pedigree positives:
sire Ivanhowe (still standing and progeny untested at 4m+) is a descendant of Northern Dancer-Sadlers Wells (a big representation but the most successful topline for GN winners). Parsing those SW representatives, the x3 presence of Wild Risk on Ivanhowe's damside puts him in the ballpark with SW descendants that have had GN success (Authorized, Walk In The Park, Yeats, Beat Hollow, Gold Well [Galvin's sire]) and particularly so with Winged Love (also SW via In The Wings), sire of GN3rd Bless The Wings and 2 other GN runners. So, he's promising though very likely short of the quality of the sons of Montjeu (Authorized and WITP)
QDB's sire and damsire were both Group 1 winners (12f and 8f respectively), like 7 of last 12 GN winners
all 3 damsires have offspring that are Group 1 winners at 12~20f - including 10f wins, that brackets him with the select group of 21 horses to run in a modern-GN, 5 of whom have won 6 times (Aurora's Encore, Rule The World, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll and I Am Maximus), with 3 more placing (Cause Of Causes, Rare Bob and Kittys Light)
finally, albeit remotely, QDB is linebred to Court Martial (himself materially linebred via son and daughter to Polymelus- a key ancestor of Northern Dancer and full brother to Wild Risk's 5th dam Lady Cynosure - one of the reasons why Wild Risk and Northern Dancer create electricity when combined in thoroughbred pedigrees). Linebreeding to Court Martial, in combination with the right sire (as QDB has), has been common to 21% of modern-GN runners and shows x2.5 outperformance as regards GN winning and Top 5 Finishes (the "right" sire alone shows a x1.7 outperformance factor and all (unfiltered) runners simply with Northern Dancer on the topline x1.27 frame-making from 59% of runners).
Overall, according to my model, QDB's pedigree is a decent fit with "mid-quality" modern-GN winners and placers <10L
On his run in the Irish GN, under 11-06 he had too much to win an it stats-wise but he saw out the trip well enough in 3rd, running a tad green. But as a 6yo, there's plenty of scope for improvement, particularly his jumping, and he's in the best hands for that. Can he progress like Nick Rockett did after his 7th at Fairyhouse, also when beaten fav? His breeding offers promise IMHO.
Very interesting! Thank you for your work, PM. Great stuff. I would never know where to find this. I'm sure if you copy the info to the mtDNA thread under GN on the other board (created just for you, I presume), some other people would appreciate as well.
Very interesting! Thank you for your work, PM. Great stuff. I would never know where to find this. I'm sure if you copy the info to the mtDNA thread under GN on the other board (created just for you, I presume), some other people would appreciate as well.
Cheers @StarryNight Will do so when I've covered a bit more territory - it's a little bitty at the moment and I'm heading off on hols shortly. But will let you have thoughts on Haiti and, hopefully, brief ones on Jagwar and King Turgeon tomorrow morning.
Jesus - Mullins didn't win it!! Great ride by Sean Bowen on Resplendent Grey to win, for Olly M. Mullins supplied the next 3: Lombron High Class Hero (made a few jumping errors on only his 4th chase) Spanish Harlem
I'll add, if I may, to the requested haplo information the winner here, Resplendent Grey, and also Captain Cody, if possible - and definitely no hurry!
Minella Cocooner now back to 50/1 for GN, maybe will go even higher. Considering he'll be 10 next year (and not as good as Maximus), I have 2nd thoughts adding him on, esp. with 4/1 odds. There're other better options already.
Disappointed with Minella, looked like he didn't have any legs, slow going, besides being hampered.
Poor Dancing City
I was surprised he was fancied. Certainly no luck once again today. That was a tough race in the GN and he needs a tad more help from the handicapper. I think for the GN, he could be frame-making material next year but winning chance likely gone.
No worries about RG and Capt Cody - going to do them when I’m back anyway.
Family 14c (the family of Earthmover, The Young Master and Minella Rocco). That makes his mtDNA the now "no-go" L2b1, despite clearly producing winners of "conventional" extended trips. In fact, that specific branch of Fam 14 has only completed twice (best 10th) in 7 runs before and 3 runs since the 2013 changes.
Not for me.
JAGWAR
Haven't
put the full slide rule over him but looks very interesting.
His Family's (12b) mtDNA is A1b - a tiny GN representation, both pre-and post-2013 (1% and 0.65% of runners respectively), but producing 1 winner (Seagram) and a place (the tough mare Ebony Jane) and another place since the 2012 changes (Farclas). Too small a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions but superficially much to like:
his first 3 damsires have some interesting
GN associations: Video Rock was also
damsire to Delta Work and Saint Are; 2nd damsire Quart Du Vin was damsire
of Welsh GN winner Raz De Maree (though an Aintree-flopper); 3rd damsire Italic was also 3rd damsire
to GN twice placer Anibale Fly.
Sire Karaktar from the ND-SW
lineage, with a couple of Wild Risk reps on the damside - like Ivanhowe.
And with Quart Du Vin being a
Great Grandson of Wild Risk, Jagwar's nicely linebred (2 sons and 1
daughter) to WR
Also has that linebreeding to Court Martial
Related to GC and 29f Grande Steeplechase De Paris winner The Fellow (his 4th
Dam was The Fellow's dam, and he was by Italic, so a full brother to Jaguar’s 3rd dam). He was going well in 4th
when falling at the 24th in his only GN, 1994.
25s right now. May well be on my team sheet nearer the time. Will be particularly interested should he line up in December's Paddy Power - JP's go-to GN trial. Expecting he will.
Icing on the cake - JJ Jnr can’t ride both Iroko and Jagwar
HAITI COULEURS
Tail female family unidentified (thankfully, it's not the Uruguayan mare listed originally on Pedigree Query), thus no idea of mtDNA, at least currently.
Again, I haven't put the full slide rule over him but I'm not getting much that screams GN winner according to my model's pedigree parameters:
Sire Dragon Dancer, by Sadlers Wells, was a near-misser in the Derby (RPR118) and certainly has the right topline. But, absent Wild Risk, his damside puts him more in Oscar's company as a GN sire (decent) rather than that of the stellar sons of Montjeu.
Damsire Argument was a G1 winner at 12f but, other than HC, has a lame stud record.
2nd Damsire Royal Charter and 3rd damsire Laniste have appeared as 1~2 Damsire of several staying chase winners having tilts at the GN (including Vicente and Raz De Maree respectively) but without troubling the Aintree judge
No Wild Risk anywhere in the pedigree and no linebreeding to CM (in fact, unless it's remote, no trace at all)
Clearly he has tremendous talent. And that Festival HC Chase looks really strong form, franked once again by Resplendent Grey. But, from my model's perspective, he'll be an outlier winner of the GN if he brings home the bacon next April. On form a massive player though.
RESPLENDENT GREY
Again, not put the full slide rule over him but at a quick glance:
Family 25 is Red Rum's family, and RG is distantly related (his 7th dam was RR's 3rd dam). Also the family of Addington Boy (GN4th and 5th).
Fam 25 is, essentially, the sole representative of mtDNA N1, whose record is:
1988~2012: 6 horses running 11 times (just 1.25% of runners) produced those 2 places by Addington Boy. 2013~2025: 7 horses running 8 times (1.74%) are yet to trouble the judge - they include Total Recall, First Lieutenant, Bob Ford, Cloudy Glen and Three Card Brag (11th and one of only 2 to complete) Again, too tiny a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions.
Otherwise:
WITP as sire obviously a plus, also the only source of WR in the pedigree (Ok if not ideal)
Damsire 3 Persian Bold catches the eye - Damsire of Rule The World and 2nd Damsire of One For Arthur (only other appearances among 1st or 2nd damsires of GN runners: Snow Leopardess and Rock The Kasbah)
Not linebred to CM but is materially so to son and daughter of Bold Ruler, who brings toughness to a pedigree
Got some pluses but doesn't look like being strong enough to interest me as a potential winner, to be honest.
Great win yesterday though. But, perhaps down to the fact that Sandown is RH, has steepish inclines and a quick run of fences, the Whitbread/Bet365 has a pretty dismal record as a pointer to GN winners (Mr Frisk was the last to win both, though in reverse order!). Since Call It A Day won the Whitbread in 1998 (a few weeks after placing 3rd in the Irish GN, just like Minella Cocooner) and a year later was 3rd in the GN (maybe Minella would have done likewise without the saddle slip), only Kittys Light has made the GN frame among all the Sandown marathon winners, though a fair few have had a tilt a year later at Aintree.
That clarifies some things already, thank you! Curtis said Haiti will probably go to GC, could be the same for Resp Grey. Cpt Cody can definitely manage hard ground - which he won't have at Aintree, maybe they'll send him some other place as well.
Comments
As you say, Soft ground at his beloved Fairyhouse and not bottomed at Aintree. Ideal.
If you haven't seen it, the RP's Chris Cook's summary is very interesting:
Only 3 horses ran the last furlong quicker than they ran the penultimate furlong - Nick Rockett (15.87secs v 16.02s) and which others?
Not Max; nor Grangeclare West, though he was close to doing so.
They were Iroko in 4th (15.9s v 16.09s) and, at a slower pace, Senior Chief in 6th (16.22s v 16.29).
Virtually matching the winner's finishing speed, there's no question that Iroko saw the trip out well. He looks particularly interesting for next year when (hopefully) returning as an 8yo and potentially off the same mark.
We might guess the horses well but what a given jockey is going to do is another matter. And if all jockeys tried the 'creeping into it', that would make a strange and probably slow race. Possibly having a leading horse from the same stable to take a 'fake' fast lead while the winner waits could be a way to do it, but you'd be sacrificing someone else's chances.
Standing water on the track after 21 mm overnight - unfortunately they'd been watering during the week.
Could be an interesting Irish GN on Monday - changeable weather continuing.
Don't rule out 13yo Any Second Now finally having his National victory.
I think we're way short of the quality of last year's renewal, in which ANY SECOND NOW was beaten just 1.5L.
Off 1lb lower mark, there's absolutely no reason to believe the veteran's a spent force and he's Mark Walsh's choice of ride, once again.
Especially with the ground likely Soft or worse, 18/1 (6 places) with BetVictor or 20s (5 places) with Lads looks excellent each way value to me.
If Mr Incredible was a reclamation project that failed, DUNBOYNE is one that may just succeed.
A strong staying pedigree (closely related to the dour stayer Madame Parfois), even with quicker than ideal ground, he was a big disappointment in the 2023 Aintree GN and a year later ran another stinker on more suitable ground at Fairyhouse. Those were among 5 PUs in his final 6 outings for Gordon Elliott.
He is a right monkey but a change of yard has seemingly rekindled his interest and he's 2 from 2 for new trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue, including a cosy win in last month's 28.5f Ulster National.
If he is truly back in love with the game, he could run a massive race at 33/1 (6 places).
MALINA GIRL (16/1, 6 places), another Ulster National winner, will likely be matched with a stallion sometime soon. She ran a cracker in the Ultima last time out and though the form of that race is yet to check out, it was a strongly-run affair on ground that was on the quick side for her.
A course winner, she'll appreciate Monday's more testing ground.
Best of the younger chasers IMHO is JOHNNYWHO (10/1), whose dam was 4th in this behind Numbersixvalverde (and won over 4 miles) and who's by Califet (sire of Midlands National winner Beauport).
Strongly staying-on close 2nd in the Kim Muir (form of that looks decent) and has a big pull at the weights with the winner (Daily Present).
The ride of top amateur Derek O'Connor, who gave him a peach of a ride at the Festival.
PS
No model here - just my chequered punting instincts
If I were using my Aintree GN Pedigree model, the 2 at the top of the weights, Better Days Ahead and Quai De Bourbon (Mullins/Townend), would be #2 and #1 respectively on my team sheet for tomorrow.
However, with 11-05 (after a 7lb claim) and 11-06, for either to win would mean defying a 30-year stat that has set 11-04 as the highest winning weight.
The stats don't stop them placing of course but, at 14s and 12s, they're too skinny to shoot for place only.
If either should do the business or go close, according to my model, they'd be strong candidates for the 2026 Aintree GN as (then) 2nd season chasers.
Great race.
1 Haiti Couleurs WINS - the "Brits" (alright, the Irish Brits) WIN AT LAST - and he sweated up badly before the Off.
2 Any Second Now ----- 2nd AGAIN at 13 years of age. What a fantastic horse.
3 Quai De Bourbon (could be an early 2026 Aintree selection, where he should be carrying a lot less weight)
4 Dunboyne - ran a cracker
5 Johnnywho
Can't complain with 3 of my 4 placing (though Johnny was win only sadly) but so close for the old boy and the reclamation project.
AND 4-0 !!!!
A terrific Easter Monday
Ted on the verge of a tear or 3.
What a star. He'll be well looked after by JP.
Had Dunboyne and Johnnywho 1/5 as well, so not all a loss.
16-1. Cheers peanuts.
Very impressive win by Haiti.
i can’t my head around his pedigree but will keep delving to try to figure it out.
Obviously a serious talent.
A corrected version makes a hell of a lot more sense in explaining his ability - wish I'd seen it before yesterday
Quite a makeover of my model since 5 April, to focus primarily on the pedigree component, which has performed well over the last 2 GNs.
I'll bore you with the whys and wherefores in due course but the upshot is that the shiny new model facilitates taking a very early punt on those current 1st season chasers (who'll be in the sweet spot next April) with the strongest pedigrees for the task - hopefully, tasty prices.
Obviously there's a lot of water to flow under a lot of bridges before we even know entries but, for fun, I had a nibble of the 40s for current 6 yo Quai De Bourbon after his 3rd in the Irish GN (well beaten but ran green to my eye and will have a more workable weight at Aintree), who has a pedigree quality to be in the mix at the business end of a GN, according to my model's estimations.
He was the mount of Paul Townend at Fairyhouse.
And so too is tomorrow's 9/2 favourite for the Bet365 Gold Cup, High Class Hero - currently an 8 yo but also, like QDB, in his first season chasing.
Scratched from the Irish GN and targeted at Sandown, he too has a very interesting pedigree for an Aintree GN - sired by Sulmani (sire of Rule The World), damsired by Turgeon (damsire of Vanillier) and sharing his rare mtDNA (L1a) with Noble Yeats.
He's 50s for Aintree right now - but certainly won't be if he obliges tomorrow, so he’s my 2nd antepost nibble.
I have antepost bet for both mentined by PM.
I'll appreciate any haplo info (in due time) about some of the new GN runners, like Quai, Haiti, Jagwar, King Turgeon, Myretown...
MYRETOWN
positives:
- materially linebred (2 daughters and 1 son, 5s x 4d x 4D and 16.3% Additive Genetic Relationship) to Timeform 137-rated Reliance (son of Arc winner and genetically-influential Tantieme) - the son of Reliance is Proverb (Myretown's 2nd damsire and 3rd damsire of Grangeclare West). Only 4 horses to run in GNs since 2013 had comparable linebreeding to Reliance; they include Saint Are, Delta Work and The Last Samuri, though none had a son of Reliance so, theoretically, Myretown's is stronger.
- related to 2002 GN4th (with 11-09) Kingsmark (his 4th dam was Kingsmark's 3rd dam).
negative:- his Family (14a) shares the mtDNA L2b1 with all branches of Family 14. This, with its near-identical L2b1a (Family 3), was the dominant mtDNA for GN success prior to 2013, with 2 winners (Earth Summit [Fam 14f] and Mon Mome [Fam 14]), from 37 runners 1988~2012 = x2.1 outperformance. Collectively with L2b1a, they produced 6 winners from 95 runners (= x2.4). HOWEVER, since 2013, the best run from any of the 38 runners with L2b1 or L2b1a (which, by random distribution, should have delivered 5 Top 5 finishes) has been Ain't That A Shame's 6th last year - despite L2b1 being represented by stayers Minella Rocco, The Young Master, Freewheelin Dylan (the best run for L2b1 specifically with 7th), Mighty Thunder and Nassalam (L2b1a represented by Ballyoptic, Thunder And Roses, Run Wild Fred, Chase The Spud and Beauport)
- no Wild Risk anywhere in his pedigree: 142 GN runners since 2013 were likewise (31% of fields). They've produced zero winners, though they include a near-misser in Any Second Now, and 23% of first 5 home (underperformance x0.76).
My current thoughts:Like many, I backed him for the Ultima and he won impressively. But the form of that race has disappointed badly so far.
If an L2b1-rep is going to break their modern-GN duck, with a sire that's a Northern Dancer descendant and that linebreeding to Reliance, he could well be the one.
Overall, however, my model rates him unlikely to do so (more like a minor-place candidate at best), so he won't be on my team sheet.
QUAI DE BOURBON (Family 4n)
mtDNA I2a1
1988~2012, I2a1 was a decent performer, batting above average with frame-making (14 Top 5 finishes from 109 runners = x1.26 outperformance), producing only 2 winners (Bindaree and Rough Quest) at x0.7 but 12 finishing 2nd (Garrison Savannah, Romany King, Just So, Suny Bay twice and Royal Auclair) or 3rd (x1.64 in terms of Top 3)
2013~2025 has been less successful but is hanging in there, with just 1 winner (Nick Rockett) from 58 runners (x0.66) but 6 other Top 5 Finishes (x0.93), including runner-up Balko Des Flos and 4th Galvin (also Fam 4n, like QDB).
So in general we should view I2a1 as neutral IMHO.
However, there is an interesting twist to that when it comes to QDB.
Because, QDB is inbred to I2a1 via both Sire (Ivanmhowe) and Damsire (Muhtathir).
While mtDNA is inherited only from the dam, many consider that the mtDNA of close male relatives can influence the interaction of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA in the physiology of their offspring.
Notably, both I2a1 winners pre-2013, Bindaree (sire) and Rough Quest (2nd damsire), and runners-up Suny Bay (sire), Just So (sire) and Garrison Savannah (damsire), were all inbred to I2a1 via sire or damsire 1 or 2 (i.e. within 3 Generations).
other pedigree positives:
- sire Ivanhowe (still standing and progeny untested at 4m+) is a descendant of Northern Dancer-Sadlers Wells (a big representation but the most successful topline for GN winners). Parsing those SW representatives, the x3 presence of Wild Risk on Ivanhowe's damside puts him in the ballpark with SW descendants that have had GN success (Authorized, Walk In The Park, Yeats, Beat Hollow, Gold Well [Galvin's sire]) and particularly so with Winged Love (also SW via In The Wings), sire of GN3rd Bless The Wings and 2 other GN runners. So, he's promising though very likely short of the quality of the sons of Montjeu (Authorized and WITP)
- QDB's sire and damsire were both Group 1 winners (12f and 8f respectively), like 7 of last 12 GN winners
- all 3 damsires have offspring that are Group 1 winners at 12~20f - including 10f wins, that brackets him with the select group of 21 horses to run in a modern-GN, 5 of whom have won 6 times (Aurora's Encore, Rule The World, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll and I Am Maximus), with 3 more placing (Cause Of Causes, Rare Bob and Kittys Light)
- finally, albeit remotely, QDB is linebred to Court Martial (himself materially linebred via son and daughter to Polymelus- a key ancestor of Northern Dancer and full brother to Wild Risk's 5th dam Lady Cynosure - one of the reasons why Wild Risk and Northern Dancer create electricity when combined in thoroughbred pedigrees). Linebreeding to Court Martial, in combination with the right sire (as QDB has), has been common to 21% of modern-GN runners and shows x2.5 outperformance as regards GN winning and Top 5 Finishes (the "right" sire alone shows a x1.7 outperformance factor and all (unfiltered) runners simply with Northern Dancer on the topline x1.27 frame-making from 59% of runners).
Overall, according to my model, QDB's pedigree is a decent fit with "mid-quality" modern-GN winners and placers <10LOn his run in the Irish GN, under 11-06 he had too much to win an it stats-wise but he saw out the trip well enough in 3rd, running a tad green. But as a 6yo, there's plenty of scope for improvement, particularly his jumping, and he's in the best hands for that.
Can he progress like Nick Rockett did after his 7th at Fairyhouse, also when beaten fav? His breeding offers promise IMHO.
I'm sure if you copy the info to the mtDNA thread under GN on the other board (created just for you, I presume), some other people would appreciate as well.
Will do so when I've covered a bit more territory - it's a little bitty at the moment and I'm heading off on hols shortly.
But will let you have thoughts on Haiti and, hopefully, brief ones on Jagwar and King Turgeon tomorrow morning.
Great ride by Sean Bowen on Resplendent Grey to win, for Olly M.
Mullins supplied the next 3:
Lombron
High Class Hero (made a few jumping errors on only his 4th chase)
Spanish Harlem
Sadly Dancing City was badly injured.
Poor Dancing City
Minella Cocooner now back to 50/1 for GN, maybe will go even higher. Considering he'll be 10 next year (and not as good as Maximus), I have 2nd thoughts adding him on, esp. with 4/1 odds. There're other better options already.
Certainly no luck once again today.
That was a tough race in the GN and he needs a tad more help from the handicapper.
I think for the GN, he could be frame-making material next year but winning chance likely gone.
No worries about RG and Capt Cody - going to do them when I’m back anyway.
CAPTAIN CODY
Family 14c (the family of Earthmover, The Young Master and Minella Rocco). That makes his mtDNA the now "no-go" L2b1, despite clearly producing winners of "conventional" extended trips.
In fact, that specific branch of Fam 14 has only completed twice (best 10th) in 7 runs before and 3 runs since the 2013 changes.
Not for me.
JAGWAR
Haven't put the full slide rule over him but looks very interesting.
His Family's (12b) mtDNA is A1b - a tiny GN representation, both pre-and post-2013 (1% and 0.65% of runners respectively), but producing 1 winner (Seagram) and a place (the tough mare Ebony Jane) and another place since the 2012 changes (Farclas). Too small a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions but superficially much to like:
- Related to GC and 29f Grande Steeplechase De Paris winner The Fellow (his 4th
Dam was The Fellow's dam, and he was by Italic, so a full brother to Jaguar’s 3rd dam). He was going well in 4th
when falling at the 24th in his only GN, 1994.
25s right now. May well be on my team sheet nearer the time.Will be particularly interested should he line up in December's Paddy Power - JP's go-to GN trial. Expecting he will.
Icing on the cake - JJ Jnr can’t ride both Iroko and Jagwar
HAITI COULEURS
Tail female family unidentified (thankfully, it's not the Uruguayan mare listed originally on Pedigree Query), thus no idea of mtDNA, at least currently.
Again, I haven't put the full slide rule over him but I'm not getting much that screams GN winner according to my model's pedigree parameters:
- Sire Dragon Dancer, by Sadlers Wells, was a near-misser in the Derby (RPR118) and certainly has the right topline. But, absent Wild Risk, his damside puts him more in Oscar's company as a GN sire (decent) rather than that of the stellar sons of Montjeu.
- Damsire Argument was a G1 winner at 12f but, other than HC, has a lame stud record.
- 2nd Damsire Royal Charter and 3rd damsire Laniste have appeared as 1~2 Damsire of several staying chase winners having tilts at the GN (including Vicente and Raz De Maree respectively) but without troubling the Aintree judge
- No Wild Risk anywhere in the pedigree and no linebreeding to CM (in fact, unless it's remote, no trace at all)
Clearly he has tremendous talent. And that Festival HC Chase looks really strong form, franked once again by Resplendent Grey. But, from my model's perspective, he'll be an outlier winner of the GN if he brings home the bacon next April.On form a massive player though.
RESPLENDENT GREY
Again, not put the full slide rule over him but at a quick glance:
Family 25 is Red Rum's family, and RG is distantly related (his 7th dam was RR's 3rd dam). Also the family of Addington Boy (GN4th and 5th).
Fam 25 is, essentially, the sole representative of mtDNA N1, whose record is:
1988~2012: 6 horses running 11 times (just 1.25% of runners) produced those 2 places by Addington Boy.
2013~2025: 7 horses running 8 times (1.74%) are yet to trouble the judge - they include Total Recall, First Lieutenant, Bob Ford, Cloudy Glen and Three Card Brag (11th and one of only 2 to complete)
Again, too tiny a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions.
Otherwise:
- WITP as sire obviously a plus, also the only source of WR in the pedigree (Ok if not ideal)
- Damsire 3 Persian Bold catches the eye - Damsire of Rule The World and 2nd Damsire of One For Arthur (only other appearances among 1st or 2nd damsires of GN runners: Snow Leopardess and Rock The Kasbah)
- Not linebred to CM but is materially so to son and daughter of Bold Ruler, who brings toughness to a pedigree
Got some pluses but doesn't look like being strong enough to interest me as a potential winner, to be honest.Great win yesterday though. But, perhaps down to the fact that Sandown is RH, has steepish inclines and a quick run of fences, the Whitbread/Bet365 has a pretty dismal record as a pointer to GN winners (Mr Frisk was the last to win both, though in reverse order!).
Since Call It A Day won the Whitbread in 1998 (a few weeks after placing 3rd in the Irish GN, just like Minella Cocooner) and a year later was 3rd in the GN (maybe Minella would have done likewise without the saddle slip), only Kittys Light has made the GN frame among all the Sandown marathon winners, though a fair few have had a tilt a year later at Aintree.
Gonna cover the others in due course.
Curtis said Haiti will probably go to GC, could be the same for Resp Grey. Cpt Cody can definitely manage hard ground - which he won't have at Aintree, maybe they'll send him some other place as well.