About a minute before it started I picked one to watch. I don't bet, but I watched it navigate every fence, having to take evasive action at times. It crossed the line after a good run I'd say, but finished well down the field. Unfortunately the jockey had jumped off at the second fence. I won't be pinning my hopes on Duffle Coat again.
Cheers @PeanutsMolloy got some 12/1 group B with 3.65, and a sixth place with Hills so no damage done.
Thank you for doing this thread yet again.
Cheers @Valiantphil Glad you enjoyed it and no damage done. Already have the blueprint for a humdinger of a new version of the model for 2026. We’ll nail the sucker next year. All the best.
So, on Saturday afternoon I was at my mate’s birthday celebration. We were talking about the GN and who might win. I had £9 in my PP account so I whacked it on Nick Rocket. £4.50 EW returned £117. I know nothing about horses and the only reason I chose Nick Rocket is because my mate’s name is Nick .. lucky or what. Cheers 🍻
Celebre d'Allen has died following his run in the Randox Grand National at Aintree on Saturday, trainers Philip Hobbs and Johnson White said on Tuesday.
The 13-year-old was pulled up in the closing stages of the Grand National and was attended to on the track by veterinary staff after collapsing before being moved to a local livery yard for recuperation. In an update provided on Monday, White had said the horse was "going the right way".
However, on Tuesday the trainers issued a statement on X, which said: "We’re heartbroken to share that Celebre D’Allen has passed away. He received the very best treatment by the veterinary teams and was improving. However, he deteriorated significantly last night and could not be saved. He was a wonderful horse and we will all miss him greatly."
Very sad. If Micheal Nolan's ten ban appeared lenient before Celebre d'Allen's death then it will seem even more so now and does nothing to help jump racing. A 13 year old that had given everything and was going backwards really should have been pulled up immediately - it was leading coming to the second last but a dozen horses passed it a matter of 20 yards after jumping the fence and yet he still made it go and jump the last. Shameful but I really do hope him and others, including the BHA, learn from that.
That'll be the knee-jerk, easy excuse, followed by stupid ban on 13+ year olds to appease the baying morons. Age had nothing to do with it - Celebre was patently not a 4 miler. He loved those fences, so raced exuberantly, but he'd not got home in a Becher Chase a mile shorter than the GN. IMO, it's entirely down to connections being greedy for their day out and entering a horse they knew, or damn well should have known, would need to be ridden very conservatively to have a chance of completing and the jockey for being a prize wanker.
That'll be the knee-jerk, easy excuse, followed by stupid ban on 13+ year olds to appease the baying morons. Age had nothing to do with it - Celebre was patently not a 4 miler. He loved those fences, so raced exuberantly, but he'd not got home in a Becher Chase a mile shorter than the GN. IMO, it's entirely down to connections being greedy for their day out and entering a horse they knew, or damn well should have known, would need to be ridden very conservatively to have a chance of completing and the jockey for being a prize wanker.
But in your own post race analysis you seemed to say that you don’t expect anything older than 8 to win it moving forwards so surely five years old than that is too elderly now it’s a quicker, classier race?
the days of an elderly plodder being competitive ar long gone are they not?
That'll be the knee-jerk, easy excuse, followed by stupid ban on 13+ year olds to appease the baying morons. Age had nothing to do with it - Celebre was patently not a 4 miler. He loved those fences, so raced exuberantly, but he'd not got home in a Becher Chase a mile shorter than the GN. IMO, it's entirely down to connections being greedy for their day out and entering a horse they knew, or damn well should have known, would need to be ridden very conservatively to have a chance of completing and the jockey for being a prize wanker.
But in your own post race analysis you seemed to say that you don’t expect anything older than 8 to win it moving forwards so surely five years old than that is too elderly now it’s a quicker, classier race?
the days of an elderly plodder being competitive ar long gone are they not?
The advantage of youth isn’t the same as saying it’s impossible for an older horse to win. It’s not that long ago (2016) that a 13yo (Vic’s Canvas) was extremely unlucky not to win it. And another (Bless The Wings) came 3rd in 2018, having raced only 12 days earlier in the Irish GN. Vic was prominent in my team, not just because he’d near-missed in a Becher and in the Bet365 (I,e. he got an extended trip) but, importantly, he was in only his 2nd season chasing - a late convert from hurdling. And that’s why 8 year olds have the advantage - yes they are physiologically progressive but also because, typically as 2nd season chasers, they’re more likely to have something in hand handicap-wise. Chasers lose their speed, not their stamina as they get older. Celebre patently was always short of stamina and should never have entered and certainly not ridden as he was. Older horses that do get a trip shouldn’t be denied their chance to run just because the authorities want to make an easy excuse. The fault lies with his connections, the jockey and “The Panel” that barred Mr Incredible and apparently has barred others previously, who should have looked at Celebre’s record and said no, you can’t run him, not because he’s 13 but because he patently doesn’t have the stamina.
No model for this and I've had a very quick skim over the field. So low conviction but 4 on my shortlist.
I was very sweet on Spanish Harlem last year and he stayed on on Soft to grab 6th. But he's done sweet FA otherwise and 9/1 strikes me as too thin to be backable. But his pedigree screams stamina and the question is will decent ground suit him better. Could be and maybe I'll have a win saver but I think these 3 are better value: My nap is Famous Bridge (14/1),apart from his impressive win on decent ground in the GN Trial (giving every indication an extra 4f on similar would be no problem) is inbred to the mitochondrial DNA N2a, that has been a strong outperformer at Aintree in recent years. A little unfortunate in the Ultima and, if you take Myretown out (who won it comfortably and was clearly thrown in), he was effectively only beaten 5L. Off 1lb lower mark today, 3lb higher than his Haydock win, which will certainly not be material IMO. Course form is a positive - has won at Ayr over hurdles and near-missed over fences.
Brandt (14/1).Though he's effectively up a stone (of which 4lbs O/H), I think he'll run well. Form reads like 4m could be his optimum and his pedigree holds a similar pointer, being materially linebred to Derby-winner Busted, a descendant of Wild Risk. That would be a strong plus in a GN.
Wiseguy's related to a really nice horse I once owned. I backed him in the Kim Muir (staying on 7th) and while I'm not convinced that 4 miles is really his best trip, on a decent surface he makes e/w appeal at 20s for 7 places. Could be heart ruling head.
You hope Mullins will fail, but after his Aintree showing, feel although I need to look no further than one of his. Will have a look at the paper later mate, got to take the dog out first.
If, and it's a big if, Mr Incredible was to start would he have any chance carrying top weight? I notice that he has a lady rider today. Btw if a panel can decide to ban a horse in the GN who appoints them and do you think we should know who they are?
If, and it's a big if, Mr Incredible was to start would he have any chance carrying top weight? I notice that he has a lady rider today. Btw if a panel can decide to ban a horse in the GN who appoints them and do you think we should know who they are?
Big weights haven't been stoppers in the past (5 winners in last 32 years with 11-10+) and his mark isn't OTT. I'm not sure a decent surface plays to his strength, even if he deigns to take part. A female jockey could be a master stroke, though he did RR on last of 4 for which Rachel Blackmore was on board (Dec 21, first and only time he wore cheekpieces) but she'd won twice on his back previously. I really hope it works.
At least two fatalities and plenty more ammunition for the anti-racing brigade.
Macdermott and The Kniphand. Very sad and depressing. Walking On Air pulled up quickly with a circuit to go, presumably something amiss - fingers crossed. And Famous Bridge pulled up very quickly as well in the home straight, when contending for minor places - hopefully Quinlan realising he was spent rather than injury.
Interesting that 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th in the Scottish GN all ran at Cheltenham (30+ days prior).. Contrast that with the disappointing show last Saturday of the Festival runners, when first 7 home had all had 35+ days rest beforehand. That extra (4th) weeks’s gap after Cheltenham is very significant in these days of lung-busting pace in 4m+ spring Nationals. 4 weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree once again next year.
I went with Klarc Kent, also had a small bet on CC, and Rock My Way. Came out in plus. But seeing all the horses dropping off every fence was very uneasy and sad. Looking at the weather in Ireland, Dublin area, it's rain mixed with sun all days next week, more rain end of the week, so it will be at least soft, or maybe heavy-ish at Fairyhouse.
I went with Klarc Kent, also had a small bet on CC, and Rock My Way. Came out in plus. But seeing all the horses dropping off every fense was very uneasy and sad. Looking at the weather in Ireland, Dublin area, it's rain mixed with sun all days next week, more rain end of the week, so it will be at least soft, or maybe heavy-ish at Fairyhouse.
Nice one @StarryNight Absolutely. It was a difficult watch and maybe a case of watering creating some areas of false ground. Not that they had any choice. Klarc Kent really loves it round there.
Do you think, PM, will Intense Raffles run at Fairyhouse? 2.2 weeks break, he's done half of the GN. Better ground for him. I have a bet but am worried he won't be there.
Comments
got some 12/1 group B with 3.65, and a sixth place with Hills so no damage done.
Glad you enjoyed it and no damage done.
Already have the blueprint for a humdinger of a new version of the model for 2026. We’ll nail the sucker next year.
All the best.
Very sad and bad news this morning.
Celebre d'Allen has died following his run in the Randox Grand National at Aintree on Saturday, trainers Philip Hobbs and Johnson White said on Tuesday.
The 13-year-old was pulled up in the closing stages of the Grand National and was attended to on the track by veterinary staff after collapsing before being moved to a local livery yard for recuperation. In an update provided on Monday, White had said the horse was "going the right way".
However, on Tuesday the trainers issued a statement on X, which said: "We’re heartbroken to share that Celebre D’Allen has passed away. He received the very best treatment by the veterinary teams and was improving. However, he deteriorated significantly last night and could not be saved. He was a wonderful horse and we will all miss him greatly."
RIP Celebre d'Allen
Age had nothing to do with it - Celebre was patently not a 4 miler.
He loved those fences, so raced exuberantly, but he'd not got home in a Becher Chase a mile shorter than the GN.
IMO, it's entirely down to connections being greedy for their day out and entering a horse they knew, or damn well should have known, would need to be ridden very conservatively to have a chance of completing and the jockey for being a prize wanker.
the days of an elderly plodder being competitive ar long gone are they not?
And another (Bless The Wings) came 3rd in 2018, having raced only 12 days earlier in the Irish GN.
Vic was prominent in my team, not just because he’d near-missed in a Becher and in the Bet365 (I,e. he got an extended trip) but, importantly, he was in only his 2nd season chasing - a late convert from hurdling.
And that’s why 8 year olds have the advantage - yes they are physiologically progressive but also because, typically as 2nd season chasers, they’re more likely to have something in hand handicap-wise.
Chasers lose their speed, not their stamina as they get older. Celebre patently was always short of stamina and should never have entered and certainly not ridden as he was.
Older horses that do get a trip shouldn’t be denied their chance to run just because the authorities want to make an easy excuse.
The fault lies with his connections, the jockey and “The Panel” that barred Mr Incredible and apparently has barred others previously, who should have looked at Celebre’s record and said no, you can’t run him, not because he’s 13 but because he patently doesn’t have the stamina.
I was very sweet on Spanish Harlem last year and he stayed on on Soft to grab 6th. But he's done sweet FA otherwise and 9/1 strikes me as too thin to be backable. But his pedigree screams stamina and the question is will decent ground suit him better. Could be and maybe I'll have a win saver but I think these 3 are better value:
My nap is Famous Bridge (14/1), apart from his impressive win on decent ground in the GN Trial (giving every indication an extra 4f on similar would be no problem) is inbred to the mitochondrial DNA N2a, that has been a strong outperformer at Aintree in recent years.
A little unfortunate in the Ultima and, if you take Myretown out (who won it comfortably and was clearly thrown in), he was effectively only beaten 5L. Off 1lb lower mark today, 3lb higher than his Haydock win, which will certainly not be material IMO.
Course form is a positive - has won at Ayr over hurdles and near-missed over fences.
Brandt (14/1). Though he's effectively up a stone (of which 4lbs O/H), I think he'll run well. Form reads like 4m could be his optimum and his pedigree holds a similar pointer, being materially linebred to Derby-winner Busted, a descendant of Wild Risk. That would be a strong plus in a GN.
Wiseguy's related to a really nice horse I once owned. I backed him in the Kim Muir (staying on 7th) and while I'm not convinced that 4 miles is really his best trip, on a decent surface he makes e/w appeal at 20s for 7 places. Could be heart ruling head.
As I said, low conviction.
Who do you fancy?
Will have a look at the paper later mate, got to take the dog out first.
I notice that he has a lady rider today.
Btw if a panel can decide to ban a horse in the GN who appoints them and do you think we should know who they are?
I'm not sure a decent surface plays to his strength, even if he deigns to take part.
A female jockey could be a master stroke, though he did RR on last of 4 for which Rachel Blackmore was on board (Dec 21, first and only time he wore cheekpieces) but she'd won twice on his back previously.
I really hope it works.
Set a decent time last out over 28f, so going to take on Mullins with him e/w.
She's earning her fee but sadly Mr I has finally spat the dummy.
Spanish Harlem carried out by Waling On Air Pulling Up.
Capt Cody - finished like a fucking bullet-train
Klarc Kent
There was a lot more carnage in that race than at Aintree.
Walking On Air pulled up quickly with a circuit to go, presumably something amiss - fingers crossed.
And Famous Bridge pulled up very quickly as well in the home straight, when contending for minor places - hopefully Quinlan realising he was spent rather than injury.
Contrast that with the disappointing show last Saturday of the Festival runners, when first 7 home had all had 35+ days rest beforehand.
That extra (4th) weeks’s gap after Cheltenham is very significant in these days of lung-busting pace in 4m+ spring Nationals.
4 weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree once again next year.
But seeing all the horses dropping off every fence was very uneasy and sad.
Looking at the weather in Ireland, Dublin area, it's rain mixed with sun all days next week, more rain end of the week, so it will be at least soft, or maybe heavy-ish at Fairyhouse.
Absolutely. It was a difficult watch and maybe a case of watering creating some areas of false ground. Not that they had any choice.
Klarc Kent really loves it round there.