Can't not have a real long shot running to win and thought 66s was just too big for Senior Chief, so had a nibble e/w even though it’s only 5 places. Seems others thought the same as he’s now 50s best price. Will still have a shilling at extended places if the price looks right when they’re offered.
Maybe someone knows which horse Rachael will choose
Still 50s, like Indo. i think it was just bet365 were out of line at 66.
Senior Chief still attracting money - available at 33s for 6 places but a number have cut him to 25s now. Perhaps there is a view that Rachel will choose him. There are some very interesting sectionals, courtesy of a GN blogger, for the Coral GC (in which he stayed on strongly into 6th) which show him quickening over the last furlong, rather than simply staying on past tired horses. Glad to have had a nibble e/w at 66 but will look to top up with extended places when they're offered.
Minella Indo is 20/1 for 6 places but 50s if you're content with 5. I rewatched his season's bow in a Grade 3 at Puchestown over 23f on Gd/Y, in which he really ran a nice race, close 2nd in just 2.8 secs slow of std - Hewick was 4.5L behind giving Indo 6lbs. He gives him 4lbs in the GN and is generally 12s. 3rd last year, at the end of his stamina on Soft, a most unlikely winner but there's plenty worse e/w value than the old boy.
I got the chief at 75-1 when you mentioned him ages ago but only four places unfortunately. I forgot to check that bit.
I've been looking at "tolerances" (i.e. just how borderline a runner's racing stats and specific aspects of its pedigree are). Specifically, I think there's good reason to treat more positively than I had originally the sires of both Iroko (Cokoriko, whose only GN runner to date has been Coko Beach but, excluding his 3 GNs, has 1 win and 1 place from 2 other runners at 4m+) and Senior Chief (Gentlewave, who's only had 2 runners at 4m+, including 1 in the GN - the unfortunate Poker Party). Both sires have pedigree similarities with other sires of GN near-missers from few runners, specifically Cokoriko with Heron Island (Rathvinden), both descended from Mill Reef but with Wild Risk progeny prominent on their damsides; and Gentlewave with Network (Delta Work and Saint Are), both sons of Monsun and both with highly-influential damsires (Saumarez and Reliance respectively).
Also, with Senior Chief, 2 of his racing stat fails are by the thinnest of thin margins. One of them alone being waived would be enough to give him a frame-making Racing CV, and applying the positive tweak to their sires' ratings elevates the Pedigree Calibre for both Iroko and Senior Chief from Strong Place to Winning potential.
Kandoo Kid remains my model's nap but, as a result, there are now 6 runners with Winning Calibre Racing CVs, of which 5 have Winning Calibre overall profiles. The strength of those profiles are now in this order (* = 2nd season chaser):
As a result, I've topped up my each-way position on Senior Chief and have now scaled e/w interests in each of the top 5 and a win saver on Intense Raffles, who still has the strongest Racing CV in the field (his pedigree relegates him to minor place potential, by my model's evaluation)........ oh and a sanity saver win interest on Mr Incredible Everything else cashed out apart from my lost stake on Stuzzikini and that's my full arsenal deployed. If these 6 don't produce the winner (7 including the fruitcake), I'm gonna need a couple of paying places from the top 5 to breakeven.
By the way, only a maximum of 5L separates those top 5, according to the "stress-tweaked” ratings, though Senior Chief's joint status in 3rd does rely on waiving a borderline stat; arguably he should be considered a nadge further adrift.
If I wanted to have only 1 bet- the banker - at current odds, I'd back VANILLIERe/w at 12/1. It’s shorter than he should be IMHO but he’s still the % pick. Proven over the trip and fences, handles any going, races handy (which is what you typically want on the likely decent ground) and in last 2 runs has matched the best form of his career.
As with all previously-placed runners, he’ll probably find a couple of progressive young ‘uns outpace him at the business end but he could have something in hand off his current GNOR147, having been galvanised by the application of blinkers, as Tiger was for his 2nd win (the only GN winner in the last 10 renewals with >2 seasons over fences).
If a horse is going to do an Amberleigh House in 2004, it’s him I reckon.
Otherwise, I’d back them in order: KANDOO KID,IROKO, VANILLIER, MINELLA COCOONER, SENIOR CHIEF.
Just looked on oddschecker and sky bet the only one giving 6 places
I tend to put my bets on and then when/if the bookies start offering 7/8 places double up. Risky because you’ll likely double your losses/winnings. But I’ve never regretted it.
Shouldn't @PeanutsMolloy have his own articles in racing literature somewhere? Maybe he has? I don't know His insights for us bunch of numbskulls is something to behold! ;-) The depth of knowledge he provides on this particular event is astounding. We're lucky to have him.
Shouldn't @PeanutsMolloy have his own articles in racing literature somewhere? Maybe he has? I don't know His insights for us bunch of numbskulls is something to behold! ;-) The depth of knowledge he provides on this particular event is astounding. We're lucky to have him.
Long live Peanuts!
Too kind.
PS Mrs Molloy says “if you want him, you can have him”.
Just rounding up the stragglers that might make the cut
HORANTZAU D'AIRY
Is nailed on to win because:
close 2nd in both Kerry and Munster Nationals in late summer (the former won by Montys Pass in his GN-winning season and the latter previously by the likes of Tiger Roll and The Big Dog), finishing 30L ahead of Perceval Legallois in the former
8yo, 2nd season chaser, the sweetest of sweet spots: 5 of the last 9 GN winners (55.6%) from just 47 runners (13.5% = x4.1 outperformance)
Has no chance because:
3 flops in last 3 outings (well beaten in the Coral Gold Cup and Paddy Power Hdcp) and Ricci and Mullins have seen enough and sold him
dismal best chase RPR of 145, 3lbs lower than any horse to make the first 3 in a modern GN
HYLAND
Is nailed on because:
fine 2nd in Ladbrokes Trophy last outing notched a career best and GN-winning RPR154: GNOR+7lbs compared to ave +8lbs for last 11 winners
inherited from his mum the GN-outperforming mitochondrial DNA N2a: 4 of last 8 GN winners = x4.3 outperformance of representation
Has no chance because:
won't get the trip: sired by Turgeon whose offspring have a record of 15 runs at 4m+ but not a single frame-maker
trained by Nicky Henderson: yet to break his GN duck after 43 attempts
CELEBRE D'ALLEN
Is nailed on because:
a winner at Aintree over 25f and beaten only 2L in last April's Topham over the GN fences
sired by Network: sire of 2 GN stalwarts, Saint Are and Delta Work
Has no chance because:
13 yo: other than on Soft or Heavy going (which is most unlikely), no 13yo has even made the frame since 1969
FONTAINE COLLONGES
Is nailed on because:
closely related to 2012 GN winner Neptune Collonges
trained by GN-winning Venetia Williams (scoring with 100/1 Mon Mome)
Has no chance because:
6 fails at 26~31f: 0PU9PP
no mare has won the race since 1951
THREE CARD BRAG
Is nailed on because:
nicely-handicapped off GNOR146: beaten last season only 5.5L by 160-rated Montys Star and <1L by 161-rated Corbetts Cross (RIP)
half-brother of Scottish National 4th Idle Talk and related to x2 GN frame-maker Addington Boy
shares damsire Strong Gale with 3 GN frame-makers (Cappa Bleu x2, Teaforthree and Shutthefrontdoor)
trained by x3 GN winner Gordon Elliott
Has no chance because:
wears black silks: 30 horses with predominantly black silks have run in the last 11 GNs - none has made the first 5 home
TWIG
Is nailed on because:
pedigree has strong GN winning connections: only 2nd son of Sulamani to run in a GN (the other was 2016 winner Rule The World) and shares damsire (Poliglote) with last year's winner I Am Maximus
26f winner (furthest trip attempted) and on decent ground, as likely for 5 April
trainer (Ben Pauling) in great form: 6 wins from last 19 to run
Has no chance because:
hasn't won for almost 2 years, disappointing badly last run in ideal conditions
best chase RPR147 lower than any to make the first 3 home in a modern GN
QUICK WAVE
Is nailed on because:
related to 1982 GN winner Grittar and, more distantly, to 1987 winner Maori Venture
2 wins from 3 runs at 3.5 miles+, notching 2 best RPRs; best 158 = GNOR+12lb (ave of last 11 GN winners GNOR+8lbs)
both those wins on GS, which is the probable going for 5 April
Has no chance because:
1 run (27L 6th) since a 25 month injury lay off: no horse with only 1 run in the prior 2 years has made the frame in a GN for at least 37 years
the double-whammy: no mare has won the race since 1951 AND
wears black silks (0 frame-makers from 30 horses with predominantly black silks to run in GNs since 2013)
If anyone is interested in my analysis of the possible link between mitochondrial DNA and GN success, or just needs a kip after losing an hour last night, there's a further bit of research that is quite interesting.
As you will recall instantly, of course , mtDNA is only inherited from the mother BUT there are many who theorise that the mtDNA of the mother does interact with that of the sire or damsire (i.e. a runner's father or maternal grandfather).
Specifically, there is a view that dams (mothers) from N2a (most of Family 1) breed well with sires that represent I2a1 (most of Families 4, 11 and 13). So I looked for this combination among the 7 GN winners since 1988 whose maternal lineage was N2a and, would you Adam & Eve it, the results are very interesting.
If we take the % of each mtDNA haplotype represented among all 951 different horses to run in a GN since 1988 as a yardstick for that of stallions of the era, then 12.5% were N2a and 11% were I2a1.
Statistically, if 11% (1 in 9) sires relevant to the era had mtDNA I2a1, the random chance of any given GN winner having either sire or damsire (or both) from the I2a1 group is 17/81 = 21%.
So, we should expect roughly 1 in 5 to tick that box.
Of the 7 GN winners since 1988 with N2a mtDNA, 4 of them (57%) have either a sire or a damsire from the I2a1 group:
- Little Polveir: damsire Escart (4c)
- Royal Athlete: sire Roselier (4i)
- Minella Times: damsire Anshan (11e) - I Am Maximus: damsire Poliglote (4i) and his 3rd damsire Le Fabuleux (13c)
To add further spice, the sires of unlucky GN 3rds with N2a, Vics Canvasand Monbeg Dude, were both I2a1 (Old Vic 11a and Witness Box 13c). Vics 2nd damsire Callernish was also I2a1 (4d). So, that's also 4 of the 7 (57%) to finish 1~3 in GNs since 2013 with N2a mtDNA that had an I2a1 sire or damsire, when the random probability is 21%.
To cut to the chase, of this year’s GN runners, other than Max, that tick the box?
Kandoo Kid (my model's nap): damsire Muhtathir (4m) AND 3rd damsire Le Glorieux (11d)
Fil Dor (closely related to Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard): damsire Ange Gabriel (4c)
For what it’s worth (not much statistically), Hyland’s 3rd damsire Tiara is I2a1 (11a)
Now, there's no such thing as a "golden stat" (or indeed a "red-line" stat) however, as Fil Dor is thoroughly unfancied, I've raided Mrs Molloy's Christmas Club Tin and as a fun bet I've had a nibble of the 160s to win on Betfair and he'll be my extended place bet when the market kicks off, hopefully after tomorrow's Confirmation Stage.
Caveat Emptor - my model is not a crystal ball and is always inaccurate to a greater or lesser degree.
Only bet what you can afford to lose in its entirety.
Comments
There’s a Confirmation stage on Monday first.
Presumably he’ll come out then.
I've been looking at "tolerances" (i.e. just how borderline a runner's racing stats and specific aspects of its pedigree are).
Specifically, I think there's good reason to treat more positively than I had originally the sires of both Iroko (Cokoriko, whose only GN runner to date has been Coko Beach but, excluding his 3 GNs, has 1 win and 1 place from 2 other runners at 4m+) and Senior Chief (Gentlewave, who's only had 2 runners at 4m+, including 1 in the GN - the unfortunate Poker Party).
Both sires have pedigree similarities with other sires of GN near-missers from few runners, specifically Cokoriko with Heron Island (Rathvinden), both descended from Mill Reef but with Wild Risk progeny prominent on their damsides; and Gentlewave with Network (Delta Work and Saint Are), both sons of Monsun and both with highly-influential damsires (Saumarez and Reliance respectively).
Also, with Senior Chief, 2 of his racing stat fails are by the thinnest of thin margins. One of them alone being waived would be enough to give him a frame-making Racing CV, and applying the positive tweak to their sires' ratings elevates the Pedigree Calibre for both Iroko and Senior Chief from Strong Place to Winning potential.
Kandoo Kid remains my model's nap but, as a result, there are now 6 runners with Winning Calibre Racing CVs, of which 5 have Winning Calibre overall profiles.
The strength of those profiles are now in this order (* = 2nd season chaser):
1. Kandoo Kid *
2. Iroko *
3. (joint) Vanillier, Minella Cocooner, Senior Chief *
6. Intense Raffles *
As a result, I've topped up my each-way position on Senior Chief and have now scaled e/w interests in each of the top 5 and a win saver on Intense Raffles, who still has the strongest Racing CV in the field (his pedigree relegates him to minor place potential, by my model's evaluation)........ oh and a sanity saver win interest on Mr Incredible
Everything else cashed out apart from my lost stake on Stuzzikini and that's my full arsenal deployed.
If these 6 don't produce the winner (7 including the fruitcake), I'm gonna need a couple of paying places from the top 5 to breakeven.
If I wanted to have only 1 bet - the banker - at current odds, I'd back VANILLIER e/w at 12/1. It’s shorter than he should be IMHO but he’s still the % pick.
Proven over the trip and fences, handles any going, races handy (which is what you typically want on the likely decent ground) and in last 2 runs has matched the best form of his career.
If a horse is going to do an Amberleigh House in 2004, it’s him I reckon.
Otherwise, I’d back them in order: KANDOO KID, IROKO, VANILLIER, MINELLA COCOONER, SENIOR CHIEF.
To be sacrificed if needed for Three Card Brag perhaps.
Risky because you’ll likely double your losses/winnings.
But I’ve never regretted it.
His insights for us bunch of numbskulls is something to behold!
;-)
The depth of knowledge he provides on this particular event is astounding. We're lucky to have him.
Long live Peanuts!
PS Mrs Molloy says “if you want him, you can have him”.
Mr Incredible is a non-runner.
Just rounding up the stragglers that might make the cut
HORANTZAU D'AIRY
Is nailed on to win because:
- close 2nd in both Kerry and Munster Nationals in late summer (the former won by Montys Pass in his GN-winning season and the latter previously by the likes of Tiger Roll and The Big Dog), finishing 30L ahead of Perceval Legallois in the former
- 8yo, 2nd season chaser, the sweetest of sweet spots: 5 of the last 9 GN winners (55.6%) from just 47 runners (13.5% = x4.1 outperformance)
Has no chance because:HYLAND
Is nailed on because:
- fine 2nd in Ladbrokes Trophy last outing notched a career best and GN-winning RPR154: GNOR+7lbs compared to ave +8lbs for last 11 winners
- inherited from his mum the GN-outperforming mitochondrial DNA N2a: 4 of last 8 GN winners = x4.3 outperformance of representation
Has no chance because:CELEBRE D'ALLEN
Is nailed on because:
- a winner at Aintree over 25f and beaten only 2L in last April's Topham over the GN fences
- sired by Network: sire of 2 GN stalwarts, Saint Are and Delta Work
Has no chance because:FONTAINE COLLONGES
Is nailed on because:
- closely related to 2012 GN winner Neptune Collonges
- trained by GN-winning Venetia Williams (scoring with 100/1 Mon Mome)
Has no chance because:THREE CARD BRAG
Is nailed on because:
- nicely-handicapped off GNOR146: beaten last season only 5.5L by 160-rated Montys Star and <1L by 161-rated Corbetts Cross (RIP)
- half-brother of Scottish National 4th Idle Talk and related to x2 GN frame-maker Addington Boy
- shares damsire Strong Gale with 3 GN frame-makers (Cappa Bleu x2, Teaforthree and Shutthefrontdoor)
- trained by x3 GN winner Gordon Elliott
Has no chance because:TWIG
Is nailed on because:
- pedigree has strong GN winning connections: only 2nd son of Sulamani to run in a GN (the other was 2016 winner Rule The World) and shares damsire (Poliglote) with last year's winner I Am Maximus
- 26f winner (furthest trip attempted) and on decent ground, as likely for 5 April
- trainer (Ben Pauling) in great form: 6 wins from last 19 to run
Has no chance because:QUICK WAVE
Is nailed on because:
- related to 1982 GN winner Grittar and, more distantly, to 1987 winner Maori Venture
- 2 wins from 3 runs at 3.5 miles+, notching 2 best RPRs; best 158 = GNOR+12lb (ave of last 11 GN winners GNOR+8lbs)
- both those wins on GS, which is the probable going for 5 April
Has no chance because:The right decision to let something else run.
If anyone is interested in my analysis of the possible link between mitochondrial DNA and GN success, or just needs a kip after losing an hour last night, there's a further bit of research that is quite interesting.
As you will recall instantly, of course
Specifically, there is a view that dams (mothers) from N2a (most of Family 1) breed well with sires that represent I2a1 (most of Families 4, 11 and 13). So I looked for this combination among the 7 GN winners since 1988 whose maternal lineage was N2a and, would you Adam & Eve it, the results are very interesting.
If we take the % of each mtDNA haplotype represented among all 951 different horses to run in a GN since 1988 as a yardstick for that of stallions of the era, then 12.5% were N2a and 11% were I2a1.
Statistically, if 11% (1 in 9) sires relevant to the era had mtDNA I2a1, the random chance of any given GN winner having either sire or damsire (or both) from the I2a1 group is 17/81 = 21%.
So, we should expect roughly 1 in 5 to tick that box.
Of the 7 GN winners since 1988 with N2a mtDNA, 4 of them (57%) have either a sire or a damsire from the I2a1 group:
- I Am Maximus: damsire Poliglote (4i) and his 3rd damsire Le Fabuleux (13c)
To add further spice, the sires of unlucky GN 3rds with N2a, Vics Canvas and Monbeg Dude, were both I2a1 (Old Vic 11a and Witness Box 13c). Vics 2nd damsire Callernish was also I2a1 (4d).
So, that's also 4 of the 7 (57%) to finish 1~3 in GNs since 2013 with N2a mtDNA that had an I2a1 sire or damsire, when the random probability is 21%.
To cut to the chase, of this year’s GN runners, other than Max, that tick the box?
Kandoo Kid (my model's nap): damsire Muhtathir (4m) AND 3rd damsire Le Glorieux (11d)
Fil Dor (closely related to Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard): damsire Ange Gabriel (4c)
For what it’s worth (not much statistically), Hyland’s 3rd damsire Tiara is I2a1 (11a)
Now, there's no such thing as a "golden stat" (or indeed a "red-line" stat) however, as Fil Dor is thoroughly unfancied, I've raided Mrs Molloy's Christmas Club Tin and as a fun bet I've had a nibble of the 160s to win on Betfair and he'll be my extended place bet when the market kicks off, hopefully after tomorrow's Confirmation Stage.
Caveat Emptor - my model is not a crystal ball and is always inaccurate to a greater or lesser degree.
Only bet what you can afford to lose in its entirety.