The influence of the EU on Britain.
Comments
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I'm confident the whole thing will be called off one way or another and we will remain.0
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Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.
Or is that giving her too much credit?1 -
Yeah I really don’t think that’s possible, there’s too many people that are Brexiteers (her former Brexit securities for instance) that would need to be involved in that plot who would definitely have outed her to make that a viable conspiracy theory.WSS said:Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.
Or is that giving her too much credit?2 -
Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.0
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May couldn’t have screwed over the DUP any more if she had tried, they will skewer her at any opportunity they have. Wouldn’t it be delicious if the DUP, who essentially got her in to power we’re the ones who took her down.ShootersHillGuru said:Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.
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HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.ShootersHillGuru said:Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.
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King Maker to King Breaker in 18 months.se9addick said:
May couldn’t have screwed over the DUP any more of she had tried, they will skewer her at any opportunity they have. Wouldn’t it be delicious if the DUP, who essentially got her in to power we’re the ones who took her down.ShootersHillGuru said:Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.
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Careful now. That's dangerously close to the loony theory that Remainers have been conspiring to secretly derail Brexit from the start and whilst there is zero evidence for this it does get the ruddy faced Brexiteers frothing.WSS said:Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.
Or is that giving her too much credit?1 -
I said that about 50 pages ago. I definitely, think there's an element of this.WSS said:Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.
Or is that giving her too much credit?0 -
I genuinely don’t believe she’s that capable.Covered End said:
I said that about 50 pages ago. I definitely, think there's an element of this.WSS said:Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.
Or is that giving her too much credit?11 - Sponsored links:
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You do understand what’s at play here ? If the vote falls next week it’s perfectly appropriate that the opposition calls a vote of no confidence. They can in fact call one at any point. Labour would dearly love a general election and the rules allow them to take this approach in order to try to force one. They do of course have to win that vote in order for anything to happen. The usual state of things means that a government with a majority would defeat the no confidence vote. However. As the DUP are the difference in their “support” arrangement with the government should they decide that they as @se9addick has suggested think May has shafted them and consequently decide to vote with the opposition parties.kentaddick said:
HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.ShootersHillGuru said:Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.
It’s democratic. It’s legal and it’s part of the rules of the House. GET OVER IT
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Probably not, but, there is a possibility that it’s no coincidence that the latest Grieve amendment went through whereas he was persuaded to soften a controversial proposed amendment earlier in the year.WSS said:Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.
Or is that giving her too much credit?
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Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.0 -
If there's a general election, i really will question whether we live in a democratic country anymore....ShootersHillGuru said:
You do understand what’s at play here ? If the vote falls next week it’s perfectly appropriate that the opposition calls a vote of no confidence. They can in fact call one at any point. Labour would dearly love a general election and the rules allow them to take this approach in order to try to force one. They do of course have to win that vote in order for anything to happen. The usual state of things means that a government with a majority would defeat the no confidence vote. However. As the DUP are the difference in their “support” arrangement with the government should they decide that they as @se9addick has suggested think May has shafted them and consequently decide to vote with the opposition parties.kentaddick said:
HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.ShootersHillGuru said:Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.
It’s democratic. It’s legal and it’s part of the rules of the House. GET OVER IT11 -
What an oxymoronic thing to say!kentaddick said:
If there's a general election, i really will question whether we live in a democratic country anymore....ShootersHillGuru said:
You do understand what’s at play here ? If the vote falls next week it’s perfectly appropriate that the opposition calls a vote of no confidence. They can in fact call one at any point. Labour would dearly love a general election and the rules allow them to take this approach in order to try to force one. They do of course have to win that vote in order for anything to happen. The usual state of things means that a government with a majority would defeat the no confidence vote. However. As the DUP are the difference in their “support” arrangement with the government should they decide that they as @se9addick has suggested think May has shafted them and consequently decide to vote with the opposition parties.kentaddick said:
HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.ShootersHillGuru said:Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.
It’s democratic. It’s legal and it’s part of the rules of the House. GET OVER IT2 -
I think she's over compensated for her remain position, the over the top belief on immigration is part of it, she thinks the leave vote is mainly about that, but to the ERG it's all about imagined sovereignty and being a mercantile trading nation of the 1850s. What the ERG and the leave elite will never admit, is there version of Brexit would have got about 20% by itself, when you stirred in a load of casual racism, xenophobia and lies about spending on public services, did they get the numbers up.WSS said:Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.
Or is that giving her too much credit?6 -
Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.se9addick said:Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.
Can’t see it being accepted.
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se9addick said:
What an oxymoronic thing to say!kentaddick said:
If there's a general election, i really will question whether we live in a democratic country anymore....ShootersHillGuru said:
You do understand what’s at play here ? If the vote falls next week it’s perfectly appropriate that the opposition calls a vote of no confidence. They can in fact call one at any point. Labour would dearly love a general election and the rules allow them to take this approach in order to try to force one. They do of course have to win that vote in order for anything to happen. The usual state of things means that a government with a majority would defeat the no confidence vote. However. As the DUP are the difference in their “support” arrangement with the government should they decide that they as @se9addick has suggested think May has shafted them and consequently decide to vote with the opposition parties.kentaddick said:
HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.ShootersHillGuru said:Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.
It’s democratic. It’s legal and it’s part of the rules of the House. GET OVER IT
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I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).ShootersHillGuru said:
Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.se9addick said:Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.
Can’t see it being accepted.0 -
Good whooshing. Poe's Law strikes again. As the Brexit case becomes more and more ridiculous it is becoming legitimately impossible to differentiate legitimate pro-Brexit posts from the parodies, such is the farce this has descended into.kentaddick said:se9addick said:
What an oxymoronic thing to say!kentaddick said:
If there's a general election, i really will question whether we live in a democratic country anymore....ShootersHillGuru said:
You do understand what’s at play here ? If the vote falls next week it’s perfectly appropriate that the opposition calls a vote of no confidence. They can in fact call one at any point. Labour would dearly love a general election and the rules allow them to take this approach in order to try to force one. They do of course have to win that vote in order for anything to happen. The usual state of things means that a government with a majority would defeat the no confidence vote. However. As the DUP are the difference in their “support” arrangement with the government should they decide that they as @se9addick has suggested think May has shafted them and consequently decide to vote with the opposition parties.kentaddick said:
HOW IS THAT DEMOCRATIC. We voted last year to have the tories in a minority government, GET OVER IT.ShootersHillGuru said:Think it’s now fairly obvious that the WA will fall. Given that Labour will almost certainly call a vote of no confidence which I initially thought they would lose it would seem possible that the DUP might welcome a general election. They have certainly hinted as much.
It’s democratic. It’s legal and it’s part of the rules of the House. GET OVER IT2 - Sponsored links:
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I think it’s possible under a Labour government because despite their rhetoric that they could deliver a deal their options are very restricted. However. They need for the WA to fall. Win a vote of no confidence and then a general election.se9addick said:
I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).ShootersHillGuru said:
Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.se9addick said:Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.
Can’t see it being accepted.
I don’t see Norway under this government.
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Personally i want a Norway +++ deal, in which we can veto rubbish laws bought through the EU and be able to trade freely with other EU nations. Who's with me?ShootersHillGuru said:
I think it’s possible under a Labour government because despite their rhetoric that they could deliver a deal their options are very restricted. However. They need for the WA to fall. Win a vote of no confidence and then a general election.se9addick said:
I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).ShootersHillGuru said:
Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.se9addick said:Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.
Can’t see it being accepted.
I don’t see Norway under this government.2 -
I know 27 that are not.kentaddick said:
Personally i want a Norway +++ deal, in which we can veto rubbish laws bought through the EU and be able to trade freely with other EU nations. Who's with me?ShootersHillGuru said:
I think it’s possible under a Labour government because despite their rhetoric that they could deliver a deal their options are very restricted. However. They need for the WA to fall. Win a vote of no confidence and then a general election.se9addick said:
I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).ShootersHillGuru said:
Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.se9addick said:Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.
Can’t see it being accepted.
I don’t see Norway under this government.
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My take on the likely outcomes in order of probability:se9addick said:
I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).ShootersHillGuru said:
Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.se9addick said:Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.
Can’t see it being accepted.
- Extension of Article 50 to allow further (likely futile) negotiations
- Second referendum - result we stay in
- EEA - I can see that happening but makes absolutely zero sense over staying in the EU
- May's deal
- No deal (no chance)
A forced General Election via a no confidence vote or a commons vote to hold a second referendum would trigger the first one.
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I like this. Blue passports, though, so the people know we've leftkentaddick said:
Personally i want a Norway +++ deal, in which we can veto rubbish laws bought through the EU and be able to trade freely with other EU nations. Who's with me?ShootersHillGuru said:
I think it’s possible under a Labour government because despite their rhetoric that they could deliver a deal their options are very restricted. However. They need for the WA to fall. Win a vote of no confidence and then a general election.se9addick said:
I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).ShootersHillGuru said:
Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.se9addick said:Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.
Can’t see it being accepted.
I don’t see Norway under this government.0 -
Wouldn’t EEA require every EU country and every member of the EEA to agree ? That would take quite a lot of time and not an easy and quick option.bobmunro said:
My take on the likely outcomes in order of probability:se9addick said:
I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).ShootersHillGuru said:
Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.se9addick said:Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.
Can’t see it being accepted.
- Extension of Article 50 to allow further (likely futile) negotiations
- Second referendum - result we stay in
- EEA - I can see that happening but makes absolutely zero sense over staying in the EU
- May's deal
- No deal (no chance)
A forced General Election via a no confidence vote or a commons vote to hold a second referendum would trigger the first one.
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It would likely require the first option as a prerequisite.ShootersHillGuru said:
Wouldn’t EEA require every EU country and every member of the EEA to agree ? That would take quite a lot of time and not an easy and quick option.bobmunro said:
My take on the likely outcomes in order of probability:se9addick said:
I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).ShootersHillGuru said:
Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.se9addick said:Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.
Can’t see it being accepted.
- Extension of Article 50 to allow further (likely futile) negotiations
- Second referendum - result we stay in
- EEA - I can see that happening but makes absolutely zero sense over staying in the EU
- May's deal
- No deal (no chance)
A forced General Election via a no confidence vote or a commons vote to hold a second referendum would trigger the first one.0 -
The other problem is that it is now enshrined in U.K. law that we leave the EU on 29th March. For any other option to happen we need a new law.bobmunro said:
It would likely require the first option as a prerequisite.ShootersHillGuru said:
Wouldn’t EEA require every EU country and every member of the EEA to agree ? That would take quite a lot of time and not an easy and quick option.bobmunro said:
My take on the likely outcomes in order of probability:se9addick said:
I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).ShootersHillGuru said:
Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.se9addick said:Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.
Can’t see it being accepted.
- Extension of Article 50 to allow further (likely futile) negotiations
- Second referendum - result we stay in
- EEA - I can see that happening but makes absolutely zero sense over staying in the EU
- May's deal
- No deal (no chance)
A forced General Election via a no confidence vote or a commons vote to hold a second referendum would trigger the first one.
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Well, good thing is i'm so good at negotiating this Norway +++ deal that it's what we've already got.ShootersHillGuru said:
I know 27 that are not.kentaddick said:
Personally i want a Norway +++ deal, in which we can veto rubbish laws bought through the EU and be able to trade freely with other EU nations. Who's with me?ShootersHillGuru said:
I think it’s possible under a Labour government because despite their rhetoric that they could deliver a deal their options are very restricted. However. They need for the WA to fall. Win a vote of no confidence and then a general election.se9addick said:
I actually think it’s the most likely outcome, but still well under a 50% chance of happening (if that makes any sense?).ShootersHillGuru said:
Norway deal means accepting free movement, annual payments and in addition membership of the Customs Union.se9addick said:Other than getting Labour into power, I fail to see what the point of a GE is and why Labour are so keen on it. Labour’s position (their six tests) is broadly the same as the governments, particularly as it includes ending free movement (which presumably means no Single Market or Norway deal) and leaving the customs union for a customs union.
For me, the better options are Norway or a second referendum.
Can’t see it being accepted.
I don’t see Norway under this government.
Thank you, thank you. I'll take my knighthood and ride off into the sunset.4 -
We are in this situation because the deal is sh*t. The deal was always going to be sh*t no matter who led the Brexit process.Covered End said:
I said that about 50 pages ago. I definitely, think there's an element of this.WSS said:Is there a chance, that as a Remainer, May has played all of these cards exactly how she wanted to force a situation (and at the same time, orchestrating her own downfall) where we stay in the EU.
Or is that giving her too much credit?
This isn’t some master stroke by May to dumb down a deal and force a change of direction. She genuinely went out to get the best deal possible and this is what she was given.
As a neutral it’s not May’s fault she got a sh*t deal. As a Tory sceptic I’m banging my head against a wall already with the people jumping to call her a champion of Remain.5
