Anyway , my relegation moodswings are in full flow.
Since last night I’ve been convinced we’re safe
then it’s we’ll lose to Blackburn , Luton will then be a massive fixture before our trip to the massives and Huddersfield and these teams won’t be changing half a team before they play us and before long we’re right back amongst it .
Stating the most obvious thing of all time but going in to all the games now I can genuinely see all 3 results possible every game , we’re not that good and we’re not that bad ....
which will definitely be enough for us to be safe
87% 13th-21st ..........................13% Relegation
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Relegation
Comments
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Agree. 50pts is what we need. But just to be safe let's get 42 points from our next 14.
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Win the next 2 home games and we can start our planning for next season.3
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As rough as it's been, things have been actually getting a bit better for some time.Since Christmas we've had 10 matches. Winning 3, drawing 2 and losing 5. That's 11 points from 10 matches, 1.1 points per match. And in that time we've played some of the better in-form clubs the last month-plus; West Brom, Swans, Stoke, Forest, Preston.Let's be honest, there is only one relegation spot up for grabs. Luton and Barnsley are done.Wigan is averaging 0.95 points per match this season and we are already up 6 points on them. If we average even just how we have done since Christmas, and no better, and Wigan continue in-form, we will finish 9 points above them. Which means they need to win three more matches, over and above expectation, to catch us and even then they go down because our goal differential is far, far better.The three clubs just above us in the table, by between 1-3 table points are... Reading, QPR and Middlesbrough. All three clubs have worse form lately. And we are just starting to get fit.Also, we've had 2 clean-sheets in our last 4. We had none in our prior 16. I think you can tell a lot about club health from clean-sheets and after a long dry spell, we are making some progress, although in fits and starts, but progress never the less.Are we in a relegation battle? I really don't think quite yet. Could we go down? Yes. Will we. I seriously doubt it. If we can get 14-15 more points from our remaining 14 matches, which is very doable, we stay up. 46-47pts gets it done, in the end.New owners, Bowyer re-signed, stay up. Would have been a dream season just a few months ago. I am still enjoying the ride.11
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You have to aim at 53 and take it from there.4
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Just checked it’s 12 points from last 10 gamesNapaAddick said:As rough as it's been, things have been actually getting a bit better for some time.Since Christmas we've had 10 matches. Winning 3, drawing 2 and losing 5. That's 11 points from 10 matches, 1.1 points per match.
so with 6 points from the last 3 games or 7pts from the last 4 games that’s where the real improvement is , not the last 10 games because from the previous 7 games we had 6 points or 5 points from the previous 6 !1 -
Always aim for more.2
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oohaahmortimer said:
Just checked it’s 12 points from last 10 gamesNapaAddick said:As rough as it's been, things have been actually getting a bit better for some time.Since Christmas we've had 10 matches. Winning 3, drawing 2 and losing 5. That's 11 points from 10 matches, 1.1 points per match.
so with 6 points from the last 3 games or 7pts from the last 4 games that’s where the real improvement is , not the last 10 games because from the previous 7 games we had 6 points or 5 points from the previous 6 !
Okay, that's fine, but even more makes my point. Even if you inlclude some of the poor form from earlier, we are still on pace to stay up. If we play just how we have the last 7, we might wind up mid-table.
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A win and a clean sheet - feeling a lot less worried now.1
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I still think Wigan will get out of trouble.
We need to drag more teams into trouble who might not be able to cope with the pressure. Hull are the ones who could really drop now.2 -
Points per game stats for struggling sides are always a bit skewed by a single win, so I wouldn’t rely on them too much.
It’s only February, things can change. I remember the season we went down, as Colin Warnock came in and did a miracle to keep Rotherham? up.1 -
Not necessarily. Still 45 points for Luton and 42 points for Barnsley to play for with 10 and 9 points up to the line.NapaAddick said:Let's be honest, there is only one relegation spot up for grabs. Luton and Barnsley are done.
Anything can happen and if Luton gets anything from either their game against the Massives or Boro, they will be up for it against us in a few weeks time at The Valley.1 -
As there appears no correlation in our last two displays: bottom 3 performance against Stoke, yet a mid table performance against Forest with a worldy goal, so we need to see how the Blackburn and Luton games pans out to see if we are potential 10th to 16th or if the home game go pear shaped, 19th to 22th ? I would imagine the former as long as the majority stay fit.0
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4 points from luton and Blackburn would be fine, just cant have luton turning us over twice in a season.0
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Take out Millwall (for obvious reasons), Leeds & Brentford and we have a much better run of fixtures until the end of the season compared to the sides around us1
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With a third of the season still to play, I wouldn't completely write off Luton or Barnsley ........ but they've got to put some sort of run together soon or they're busted. They know that. But it depends on the morale in their dressing room. They've no time to waste.
Wigan recently showed what 2 back-to- back wins can do ...... they went from being bottom to giving themselves a chance, in the space of a week. And with a very fortunate late equaliser last night which will boost confidence, they'll believe they've still got a chance.
Relegation threatened teams often come to life in the run in, so write off any of one of them at your peril.
But they can't all escape.
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Win as many at home as possible, pick up the odd bonus point or, like last night, points away from home.
It's very much in our own hands with Luton and Wigan still to visit The Valley. That said it's Charlton, there's plenty of twists in the plot to come yet. We never do things the easy way.4 -
If we go down it will be because we deserve to. I think we’ll squeak out of it but it’s going to be very close.1
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We have a proper squad now and some 'winnable' fixtures remaining - it is down to the players now. After last night the players must feel lifted.3
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The beauty of our win last night and 3 juicy points is that it puts us within reach of the teams stagnating on 40 points or less.
There's invariably a mid-table team that gets drawn into the relegation dog fight ...... and this season seems to be no exception; Hull, Reading and QPR may soon be looking over their shoulder. But they are still 9 or 10 points above Wigan - and unless Wigan go on an amazing run, a win or 2 for one off these stagnating teams lifts them out of trouble.
Meanwhile, these teams are only 3 or 4 points above us, well catchable. And we'll do ourselves a big favour to get in amongst them.
Remember, we have still to play struggling teams and many still have to play each other - both teams can't win, so these 6 pointer matches can drag a team in or out of trouble quite quickly.
We've got home games still to play that we should be able to harvest points from.
And the beauty is ....... it's all in our own hands.
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I know it's only a matter of opinions, Shooters ........ but I can't see it like that.ShootersHillGuru said:If we go down it will be because we deserve to. I think we’ll squeak out of it but it’s going to be very close.
You seem to think that we're one of a relegation battle of 4 clubs, of which 3 will go down.
One more win brings us amongst a few other clubs, themselves out of form.
That would mean we would be in a relegation battle of perhaps 10 clubs, of which 3 would go down.
Those teams still have to play each other; they can't all win.
We should be able to pick up our share of points in our remaining fixtures to finish comfortably away from the relegation zone.
Plenty of twists and turns to come. But with a much stronger squad than during our injury crisis, it's in our own hands.
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I personally think Hull are bang in trouble, their fans must be massively deflated after losing their 2 best players (Bowen being the best player in the Championship this season for me). Also QPR losing Wells is a huge loss for them
I think Stoke will ease clear of the pack and we will be left with Luton, Barnsley, Wigan, Us, Huddersfield, Boro, Hull, QPR & Reading as the 9 fighting it out3 -
I’m not having we beat forest because they made changes. So did we! No Williams, pratley or green plus sarr coming in and purrington making way for Dougherty. It’s a squad game now, they rotated theirs and we rotated ours. We won fair and squareoohaahmortimer said:Anyway , my relegation moodswings are in full flow.
Since last night I’ve been convinced we’re safe
then it’s we’ll lose to Blackburn , Luton will then be a massive fixture before our trip to the massives and Huddersfield and these teams won’t be changing half a team before they play us and before long we’re right back amongst it .
Stating the most obvious thing of all time but going in to all the games now I can genuinely see all 3 results possible every game , we’re not that good and we’re not that bad ....
which will definitely be enough for us to be safe
87% 13th-21st ..........................13% Relegation6 -
For a change, Forest had their two main strikers missing, and we had our main striker playing and our other main striker on the bench. About time we had some fortune. I believe they were injured and not rested like a couple of other Forest players which the Manager admitted was a mistake.
We have had a weakened team since mid September so it's good to see that other teams struggle with important players missing ( Grabban + Ameobi)1 -
We made changes cos we were shit at Stoke , they made changes because they had a couple of injuries and rested players for their next game , that’s the difference in the reason for changesTodds_right_hook said:
I’m not having we beat forest because they made changes. So did we! No Williams, pratley or green plus sarr coming in and purrington making way for Dougherty. It’s a squad game now, they rotated theirs and we rotated ours. We won fair and squareoohaahmortimer said:Anyway , my relegation moodswings are in full flow.
Since last night I’ve been convinced we’re safe
then it’s we’ll lose to Blackburn , Luton will then be a massive fixture before our trip to the massives and Huddersfield and these teams won’t be changing half a team before they play us and before long we’re right back amongst it .
Stating the most obvious thing of all time but going in to all the games now I can genuinely see all 3 results possible every game , we’re not that good and we’re not that bad ....
which will definitely be enough for us to be safe
87% 13th-21st ..........................13% Relegation1 -
Williams, pratley and green were dropped for being shite?oohaahmortimer said:
We made changes cos we were shit at Stoke , they made changes because they had a couple of injuries and rested players for their next game , that’s the difference in the reason for changesTodds_right_hook said:
I’m not having we beat forest because they made changes. So did we! No Williams, pratley or green plus sarr coming in and purrington making way for Dougherty. It’s a squad game now, they rotated theirs and we rotated ours. We won fair and squareoohaahmortimer said:Anyway , my relegation moodswings are in full flow.
Since last night I’ve been convinced we’re safe
then it’s we’ll lose to Blackburn , Luton will then be a massive fixture before our trip to the massives and Huddersfield and these teams won’t be changing half a team before they play us and before long we’re right back amongst it .
Stating the most obvious thing of all time but going in to all the games now I can genuinely see all 3 results possible every game , we’re not that good and we’re not that bad ....
which will definitely be enough for us to be safe
87% 13th-21st ..........................13% RelegationGet over yourself, we won! Enjoy! The players chased, battled and deservedly conquered. Why can’t you give them credit where credit is due? We did not win because they rested players, can you prove that? We won because we created the only moment of quality in the game and beat what was put before us.6 -
I hope no gets too carried away by this win. That was a weekend Forest team and they still had more possesion and shots than us. I am very happy we got the 3 pts. But not confident that playing this way we can win often enough to stay up. The team seem incapable of dominating the opposing side, as evidenced by most of a few wins being by 1 goal.0
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Or on the flip side Wigan may have won two games back to back but they're still 4 points inside the relegation zone, 2 wins back to back aren't enough when you're as far adrift as they were.Oggy Red said:With a third of the season still to play, I wouldn't completely write off Luton or Barnsley ........ but they've got to put some sort of run together soon or they're busted. They know that. But it depends on the morale in their dressing room. They've no time to waste.
Wigan recently showed what 2 back-to- back wins can do ...... they went from being bottom to giving themselves a chance, in the space of a week. And with a very fortunate late equaliser last night which will boost confidence, they'll believe they've still got a chance.
Relegation threatened teams often come to life in the run in, so write off any of one of them at your peril.
But they can't all escape.
Luton and Barnsley I don't see getting out of it.
Then the last place is between Stoke, Huddersfield, us, Boro, QPR, Reading, Hull.
The big difference is it's not a case of it'll be 3 teams from 4 it looks like it'll be Luton, Barnsley and then 1 from 7 for the last spot.
As it stands I'm thinking Wigan or Hull for the last place and us safe by a good 9-10 pts.2 -
Leeds, Brentford, 4 points against Fulham and wba. It’s the way bowyer sets the team up and without the injuries, we would have picked up more points. I might be wrong but we’ve only lost two games by more than 1 goalmsomerton said:I hope no gets too carried away by this win. That was a weekend Forest team and they still had more possesion and shots than us. I am very happy we got the 3 pts. But not confident that playing this way we can win often enough to stay up. The team seem incapable of dominating the opposing side, as evidenced by most of a few wins being by 1 goal.1
