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Savings and Investments thread
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I have a few quid "spare" and am thinking of investing it in the stock market while it's low. Can hang on until recovery. Anyone suggest an equity worth a punt and why?0
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I'm sure Matt Southall could invest it for you ;-))cafc-west said:I have a few quid "spare" and am thinking of investing it in the stock market while it's low. Can hang on until recovery. Anyone suggest an equity worth a punt and why?
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There's a lot of BS in technical analysis but this drop seems to be following a well-known pattern quite nicely.Fortune 82nd Minute said:
Genuinely interested. Whats the significance of the 5733 level and what is a "classic fib level for a wave 4"?WishIdStayedinthePub said:Mind the gap at 5733 and also roughly a classic fib level for a wave 4.
If it gets past that, could be a nice v-shaped recovery. If not, will be the start of the final sickener leg down.
One well-tested theory says that if a market gaps and doesn't immediately close that gap then, any bounce will struggle to get past that opening level. Yesterday, the FTSE opened at 5733 and then kept falling.
Fib refers to Fibonacci levels in Elliot Wave Theory. The theory says that impulsive moves, move in 5 waves. Wave 1 is first and (relatively) short. Then a second wave recovers a lot of that (bounce to 6850 was classically 61% of the first one down, which is where I started to get out a little; can recover the whole drop). The third is the really violent one (that was yesterday, which itself falls in 5 waves). If that gaps, then typically the gap ends up being the mid point of the drop (which it was, yesterday). Then there's a fourth up which recovers but less than the second, and often recovers only 38%, sometimes it goes further (in 2016 it went to 50%, another Fib level). 38% is around the 5700 mark. The fifth one down is similar size to the first. There's also sort of variations to the rules that allows people to explain why they got it wrong but this one does appear to be following a text book so far. Human beings like to see patterns but unfortunately you can always explain a pattern after the event more easily than before - a lot of post rational goes on.
Of course, trading systems now know all these rules and try to game them but if you see a few rules on top of each other it can give some comfort. I spent a lot of my career designing and building those trading systems.
What that all means is that I think this recovery will peter out fairly soon and drop one more time. Perhaps at US open. But this is trading, not investment. Timing markets is notoriously difficult because of emotions. All the best traders I've met are on the spectrum somewhere and don't tend to suffer from emotional doubt.
All I've been doing is taking a bit off the table on the bounces and feeding back in on the dips. Over five years that might make me a bit more than it would have done holding but I also run the risk of missing an upsurge. The last time I tried to be really smart and short the market (2016), emotions got the better of me and I lost a packet - even though I was 'right' about what was going to happen.
If you're an investor - follow Golfie and Prague's advice: feed a little bit in regularly over time, be diversified in assets, use pooled investments.
I would add: avoid penny shares, avoid anything where there's a really active share forum, and avoid small mining companies. SXX satisfied all those rules and I lost about 80% on that!2 -
Why wait until the recovery, get on now while stocks are low.cafc-west said:I have a few quid "spare" and am thinking of investing it in the stock market while it's low. Can hang on until recovery. Anyone suggest an equity worth a punt and why?
"Buy em low an sell em high!"1 -
Never take advice on a football forum as to what stocks to buy;cafc-west said:I have a few quid "spare" and am thinking of investing it in the stock market while it's low. Can hang on until recovery. Anyone suggest an equity worth a punt and why?
1. Go-Ahead Group.
2. BAT
3. Lloyds Bank
4. PMO (if they drop back to sub 15p, risky though)
5. Tullow Oil (if you wish to potentially lose everything or double your money)
6. Greggs (everyone loves a sausage roll)
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Worded it badly! I meant buy now and sit on them until the market recovers....eaststandmike said:
Why wait until the recovery, get on now while stocks are low.cafc-west said:I have a few quid "spare" and am thinking of investing it in the stock market while it's low. Can hang on until recovery. Anyone suggest an equity worth a punt and why?
"Buy em low an sell em high!"0 -
I don't have any investments, but have a pension kicking in in a few months so will have a modest lump sum to invest, in the meantime I was thinking to start and ISA now, planned to earlier but from what I could gather the stock market was near the end of a bubble, in FOMO mode, well it's well and truly burst now. Will just be going for a managed fund like those from Axa or Aviva -start with £500 and maybe feed in £1500 of the same before end tax year. Of the two Aviva seems much easier to apply for and use online so thinking of going for that and select a few of their funds to spread it out.
Aviva sound okay or any alternatives recommended?0 -
Plenty of better ones around but under FCA rules I'm not allowed to give advice until I know my client.Salad said:I don't have any investments, but have a pension kicking in in a few months so will have a modest lump sum to invest, in the meantime I was thinking to start and ISA now, planned to earlier but from what I could gather the stock market was near the end of a bubble, in FOMO mode, well it's well and truly burst now. Will just be going for a managed fund like those from Axa or Aviva -start with £500 and maybe feed in £1500 of the same before end tax year. Of the two Aviva seems much easier to apply for and use online so thinking of going for that and select a few of their funds to spread it out.
Aviva sound okay or any alternatives recommended?
It really depends on your attitude to risk. Q Managed funds basically means it's a multi asset find (invests in shares, fixed interest, alternatives (such as hedge funds & absolute return strategies) property & cash. Companies run different funds that align with different attitude to risk. The basic ones are cautious managed, managed & adventurous. A decent fund management company will have have a few with varying amounts in equities. There are specific sectors for these, based on how much a fund invests in equities. Starting at 0-35%, then 20-60%, 40-85% and then flexible (which has no top level of equity exposure).
HTH.1 -
Checked my pension fund earlier. Down 12% from last month but still not as low as it was at the end of 2018.eaststandmike said:13% loss across the board for me and my wife as well, still they will bounce back.0 -
Novacyt Groupcafc-west said:I have a few quid "spare" and am thinking of investing it in the stock market while it's low. Can hang on until recovery. Anyone suggest an equity worth a punt and why?
Diagnostic test provider. Keep an eye on the US FDA EUA approval website. Have been in since 37p 😁
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Looks a good call. Thanks. You did well at 37p!!heavenSE7 said:
Novacyt Groupcafc-west said:I have a few quid "spare" and am thinking of investing it in the stock market while it's low. Can hang on until recovery. Anyone suggest an equity worth a punt and why?
Diagnostic test provider. Keep an eye on the US FDA EUA approval website. Have been in since 37p 😁0 -
Good start to the day both on the FTSE and exchange rates
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buy buy buy!!1
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As someone who obviously knows what he is doing, I can't believe you are seriously saying buy at the moment.Rob7Lee said:buy buy buy!!
As we speak, the FTSE is fighting desperately to hang onto the 5000 level. I suspect it will plunge through it this afternoon if the Dow opens lower (as I predicted last week, looks like I will be a day late). Then where is the next support level? I thought it might be 4500 but I'm now inclined to think it will be 3750 as @hoof_it_up_to_benty predicted.
Before you repeat all the mantra about time in the market etc (and yes, experience has shown that to be totally right) I can only wonder whether conditions today are so different that it will take 10 years for the market to recover. And I also wonder whether some people still appreciate the economic hit we are going to take over the next few months and whether things may not be the same again for many, many years.0 -
I'm now beginning to think that 3750 might sound optimistic. There seem to be an awful lot of companies on the edge.Fortune 82nd Minute said:
As someone who obviously knows what he is doing, I can't believe you are seriously saying buy at the moment.Rob7Lee said:buy buy buy!!
As we speak, the FTSE is fighting desperately to hang onto the 5000 level. I suspect it will plunge through it this afternoon if the Dow opens lower (as I predicted last week, looks like I will be a day late). Then where is the next support level? I thought it might be 4500 but I'm now inclined to think it will be 3750 as @hoof_it_up_to_benty predicted.
Before you repeat all the mantra about time in the market etc (and yes, experience has shown that to be totally right) I can only wonder whether conditions today are so different that it will take 10 years for the market to recover. And I also wonder whether some people still appreciate the economic hit we are going to take over the next few months and whether things may not be the same again for many, many years.
No economist has ever factored in months of lockdown and its effect on world trade. Unemployment is set to rise significantly in nany areas and we are still clueless as to how much the drop in GDP will be in most countries.
The full extent of this will take months/years to unravel.0 -
Crazy lockdowns, panic and mayhem, no one showing any global leadership.
I am self-isolating from the stock market!0 -
FTSE All Share Index now down 50% from a month ago, so just did my wife's S&S ISA.0
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Unless you're a professional investor you stand to be pretty f***ed by this ongoing crisis. Anyone with pension investments just has to hope it bottoms out.
The FTSE is now down by a third in the last month and seems likely to be adding yet another entry to the top 10 one day FTSE falls.0 -
Dow down 2250 at opening. Trading suspended again.
Watch the FTSE go into freefall now.0 - Sponsored links:
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God knows what happens now. And I was one of the positive ones saying that it would all blow over & things will be pretty much back to normal by the summer.
Good job I dont do this for a living......🙄🤔3 -
For me, it's fairly straight forward, the market is very low, will it go lower, maybe, maybe not, might half, I don't know. But I strongly suspect that at some point in the next 3/5/7/10 years the FTSE will recover as will the other markets. So if I buy in at sub 5,000 as long as at some point makes it back to 7,000 i'll be very happy. Everything else is just paper loss/paper gain. I'll keep trickling in over the next few weeks.Fortune 82nd Minute said:
As someone who obviously knows what he is doing, I can't believe you are seriously saying buy at the moment.Rob7Lee said:buy buy buy!!
As we speak, the FTSE is fighting desperately to hang onto the 5000 level. I suspect it will plunge through it this afternoon if the Dow opens lower (as I predicted last week, looks like I will be a day late). Then where is the next support level? I thought it might be 4500 but I'm now inclined to think it will be 3750 as @hoof_it_up_to_benty predicted.
Before you repeat all the mantra about time in the market etc (and yes, experience has shown that to be totally right) I can only wonder whether conditions today are so different that it will take 10 years for the market to recover. And I also wonder whether some people still appreciate the economic hit we are going to take over the next few months and whether things may not be the same again for many, many years.1 -
One small consolation for those with Share ISA's with dividend reinvestment......at least your dividends will be buying shares at very low rates. Of course, this is only any good while a company is actually still paying a dividend.0
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Unprecedented times, my SIPP is down 13%, but could be worse. Time to take as much tax advantage as I can.0
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Mine is "only" down 8%. But that's because, more by accident than design, it actually has 30% in cash. Which means I can buy at these lower prices, but then again, as I'm nearly 66, I have to be careful about what I buy.Rob7Lee said:Unprecedented times, my SIPP is down 13%, but could be worse. Time to take as much tax advantage as I can.0 -
PragueAddick said:
Mine is "only" down 8%. But that's because, more by accident than design, it actually has 30% in cash. Which means I can buy at these lower prices, but then again, as I'm nearly 66, I have to be careful about what I buy.Rob7Lee said:Unprecedented times, my SIPP is down 13%, but could be worse. Time to take as much tax advantage as I can.
At 66? Buy more cash!
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I'm probably being dim or about to be whooshed, but are you suggesting I liquidate my funds, at these levels?bobmunro said:PragueAddick said:
Mine is "only" down 8%. But that's because, more by accident than design, it actually has 30% in cash. Which means I can buy at these lower prices, but then again, as I'm nearly 66, I have to be careful about what I buy.Rob7Lee said:Unprecedented times, my SIPP is down 13%, but could be worse. Time to take as much tax advantage as I can.
At 66? Buy more cash!0 -
PragueAddick said:
I'm probably being dim or about to be whooshed, but are you suggesting I liquidate my funds, at these levels?bobmunro said:PragueAddick said:
Mine is "only" down 8%. But that's because, more by accident than design, it actually has 30% in cash. Which means I can buy at these lower prices, but then again, as I'm nearly 66, I have to be careful about what I buy.Rob7Lee said:Unprecedented times, my SIPP is down 13%, but could be worse. Time to take as much tax advantage as I can.
At 66? Buy more cash!
No of course not, ride that out with the exposure you currently have. But there is a way down to go yet in my opinion - I'm certainly not touching equities at the moment but I will in due course.
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Right. I am just gently feeding some cash into lower risk funds such as Vanguard Life Strategy 20% Equity.bobmunro said:PragueAddick said:
I'm probably being dim or about to be whooshed, but are you suggesting I liquidate my funds, at these levels?bobmunro said:PragueAddick said:
Mine is "only" down 8%. But that's because, more by accident than design, it actually has 30% in cash. Which means I can buy at these lower prices, but then again, as I'm nearly 66, I have to be careful about what I buy.Rob7Lee said:Unprecedented times, my SIPP is down 13%, but could be worse. Time to take as much tax advantage as I can.
At 66? Buy more cash!
No of course not, ride that out with the exposure you currently have. But there is a way down to go yet in my opinion - I'm certainly not touching equities at the moment but I will in due course.0 -
It's now starting to resemble the Great Depression - startling market falls across the world on a scale that's quite mindblowing. I think the majority of Governments are pretty clueless what action to take.
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