England Cricket 2022

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

golfaddick said:

So what are the odds tomorrow & what do Winviz reckon ?

Personally I think NZ are slight favourites because I know we still have a batting collapse in us & their spinner looks a lot more dangerous than Leach.

I'd say

NZ 50%
England 40%
Draw 10%

Betfair says


- Draw 47.4%

- England 34.9%

- New Zealand 17.7%


Remortgage the house job if you can get 9/2 on a coin clip.

Draw 55.5%

England 33.3%

New Zealand 11.2%

Draw 58.8%

Still a long way to go. Get the ball 35/40 overs old & its shown that it doesn't do much. Need to have wickets in hand come the last 20 overs.

kentaddick said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

golfaddick said:

So what are the odds tomorrow & what do Winviz reckon ?

Personally I think NZ are slight favourites because I know we still have a batting collapse in us & their spinner looks a lot more dangerous than Leach.

I'd say

NZ 50%
England 40%
Draw 10%

Betfair says


- Draw 47.4%

- England 34.9%

- New Zealand 17.7%


Remortgage the house job if you can get 9/2 on a coin clip.

Draw 55.5%

England 33.3%

New Zealand 11.2%

How quickly it can flip

Draw 58.8%

England 14.3%

New Zealand 26.9%

also why these "win predictors" are completely useless.

They're not a prediction.  So, if they're used as a prediction then, yes, they're useless.  In the same way that they're useless as a weather forecast. 

blackpool72 said:

Chizz said:

kentaddick said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

golfaddick said:

So what are the odds tomorrow & what do Winviz reckon ?

Personally I think NZ are slight favourites because I know we still have a batting collapse in us & their spinner looks a lot more dangerous than Leach.

I'd say

NZ 50%
England 40%
Draw 10%

Betfair says


- Draw 47.4%

- England 34.9%

- New Zealand 17.7%


Remortgage the house job if you can get 9/2 on a coin clip.

Draw 55.5%

England 33.3%

New Zealand 11.2%

How quickly it can flip

Draw 58.8%

England 14.3%

New Zealand 26.9%

also why these "win predictors" are completely useless.

They're not a prediction.  So, if they're used as a prediction then, yes, they're useless.  In the same way that they're useless as a weather forecast. 

If they are not predictors then what are they ?

A guess

Crawley need to go and it should be Robson imo. Has to be Sam Robson. Picked when very young and did alright with less chances than many of those that followed. Gone away and worked on his game, got captaincy and leadership experience and scored runs consistently for years. Could be England's Chris Rogers or Adam Voges. Bonus that he's a right handed too.

As for Crawley, situation was basically made for him and his way of playing. Make a quick 20 and get out in his usual manner trying to drive one too far from his body and everyone would say he was doing a job for the team. You never know he could have rode his luck and got something more. But no. Completely fucked it. Has to go.

You just know that Bairstow is gonna do enough here in a winning cause to keep Brook out the side until he is no longer in form.

blackpool72 said:

Chizz said:

kentaddick said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

golfaddick said:

So what are the odds tomorrow & what do Winviz reckon ?

Personally I think NZ are slight favourites because I know we still have a batting collapse in us & their spinner looks a lot more dangerous than Leach.

I'd say

NZ 50%
England 40%
Draw 10%

Betfair says


- Draw 47.4%

- England 34.9%

- New Zealand 17.7%


Remortgage the house job if you can get 9/2 on a coin clip.

Draw 55.5%

England 33.3%

New Zealand 11.2%

How quickly it can flip

Draw 58.8%

England 14.3%

New Zealand 26.9%

also why these "win predictors" are completely useless.

They're not a prediction.  So, if they're used as a prediction then, yes, they're useless.  In the same way that they're useless as a weather forecast. 

If they are not predictors then what are they ?

It's a model, which determines the likelihood of any number of outcomes.  It doesn't *predict* what is going to happen.  It demonstrates a model showing how likely it is for the game to finish (in this case) as an England win, a draw or a New Zealand win.  

kentaddick said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

golfaddick said:

So what are the odds tomorrow & what do Winviz reckon ?

Personally I think NZ are slight favourites because I know we still have a batting collapse in us & their spinner looks a lot more dangerous than Leach.

I'd say

NZ 50%
England 40%
Draw 10%

Betfair says


- Draw 47.4%

- England 34.9%

- New Zealand 17.7%


Remortgage the house job if you can get 9/2 on a coin clip.

Draw 55.5%

England 33.3%

New Zealand 11.2%

How quickly it can flip

Draw 58.8%

England 14.3%

New Zealand 26.9%

also why these "win predictors" are completely useless.

It’s all just clever people using mathematical models. As more information comes in over time, the percentages will adjust. It’s not predicting anything, it’s just saying from this particular point in time, how likely is each outcome.

They’d more useless if they didn’t update after two quick wickets IMO.

This is it. Need a 100 run partnership between these 2. Lose 1 of them before we get to 200 then the games up. 

killerandflash said:

Crawley suffers the misfortune of having to face Boult rather than Southee

Crawley suffers the misfortune of a poor technique, meaning he edges it to the slips all the time.

Now:
Eng 31%
NZ 30%
Draw 39%

Bit generous to us I think to be honest, but nice to have all 3 results about level likelihood (and all 4 still possible) on half 3 on the last day.

Draw still very much possible. One of these two out within the first five overs, the other out about 10 overs later. Foakes and the tail see 110 required from 20, go defensive and see out the last 20 overs for a draw.

If Bairstow and Stokes can last 20+ overs, it's in our hands. If the Kiwis have them both early, it's going to be a difficult 30+ overs for the tail.

kentaddick said:

North Lower Neil said:

Now:
Eng 31%
NZ 30%
Draw 39%

Bit generous to us I think to be honest, but nice to have all 3 results about level likelihood (and all 4 still possible) on half 3 on the last day.

again, ridiculous to have this so high. Sure as @callumCAFC says, it takes statistics, but it doesn't take on the psychology of it at all. I'd go so far as to say draw is by far the least likely conclusion to this game.

You might be right.  But, to win, New Zealand need six wickets in a session; England need 160 runs in a session.  I don't know if either of those has happened in any of the previous fourteen sessions, but you are suggesting that their both more likely than not.  

Callumcafc said:

Foakes and the tail see 110 required from 20, go defensive and see out the last 20 overs for a draw.

But the management have said that's not their way. 

I would say it's still NZ's to lose.

NZ 50%
England 40%
Draw 10%

Well they’re having fun at least!

Run rate down to 3.4