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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday
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That’s how to pick your players up !!Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:Bristol Rovers last 8 away league games. Goals For: 1
Goals Against: 15
Points: 1 (0-0 at Shrewsbury).
Their manager, yesterday...
Calderon spoke to the media an hour after the final whistle following a long post-match conversation with the players in the changing room."I think everybody realises now, I don't know if they knew before, but it's quite obvious now at this moment we are a League Two team, a League Two club," Calderon told BBC Radio Bristol.20 -
Bristol Rovers are God awful, have to hope Blackpool & Lincoln do us a favour if we want to overtake Wrexham. I think Wrexham will end up on 86/87 at worst. Be very surprised if it's any lower.1
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I have a feeling Miguel Llera will be more than just a coach next season.LargeAddick said:
That’s how to pick your players up !!Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:Bristol Rovers last 8 away league games. Goals For: 1
Goals Against: 15
Points: 1 (0-0 at Shrewsbury).
Their manager, yesterday...
Calderon spoke to the media an hour after the final whistle following a long post-match conversation with the players in the changing room."I think everybody realises now, I don't know if they knew before, but it's quite obvious now at this moment we are a League Two team, a League Two club," Calderon told BBC Radio Bristol.0 -
Rovers finished 15th last season FOUR points ahead of us, so calling them a L2 club is ridiculous.LargeAddick said:
That’s how to pick your players up !!Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:Bristol Rovers last 8 away league games. Goals For: 1
Goals Against: 15
Points: 1 (0-0 at Shrewsbury).
Their manager, yesterday...
Calderon spoke to the media an hour after the final whistle following a long post-match conversation with the players in the changing room."I think everybody realises now, I don't know if they knew before, but it's quite obvious now at this moment we are a League Two team, a League Two club," Calderon told BBC Radio Bristol.0 -
Top two:
Wrexham 55.72%Wycombe 37.30%
Stockport 4.38%
Charlton 2.60%Playoffs:
Charlton 97.32% (0.08% finish outside top six)
Reading 71.60%
Orient 14.16%
Bolton 9.06%
Huddersfield 3.86%
Blackpool 1.40%1 -
Bit harsh on Stockport that if they fail to make 2nd they have 0% chance of making the playoffs11
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I think you’re missing my point .. If at the end of the season we come up, say, 6 points short, those are the three games that you could say that’s where we lost it. But hey-ho …lordromford said:
Yeah. And if it weren’t for those dropped points against Reading, Rotherham, Blackpool, Stevenage, Bristol Rovers, Stockport, Barnsley, Wrexham, Exeter, Huddersfield, Crawley, Lincoln, Mansfield, Birmingham and Peterborough we’d have won the league by now._MrDick said:Those dropped points against Barnsley, Blackpool and Crawley are going to come back and bite us on the arse, aren’t they!
Then again, if it weren’t for those wins against Wigan, Orient, Bolton, Shrewsbury, Birmingham, Burton, Northampton, Cambridge, Wycombe, Bristol Rovers, Stevenage, Peterborough, Exeter, Barnsley, Crawley, Huddersfield and Mansfield, we’d be deep in relegation trouble.
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I know these things probably even out over a season, but given how good our home form has been, it's the 5 points dropped at home to Mansfield and Crawley that i think will ultimately end up costing us automatic promotion.2
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Even with winning our 4 remaining games (very unlikely) I still had Wrexham in 89 points and us third!MuttleyCAFC said:I have done a predictor. I have tried to be fair and unbiased apart from two games, Wycombe and Wrexham were I have input narrow wins for us because it is obvious we have to win these games. I think the predictor only confirms that winning these games is the crux for automatic promotion. If we lose those two games I think we are looking at 5th.
Here is the predictor link if others want to try it.
https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-league-one/
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It was the 13 game run (from 7 games in) where we took 11 points only winning 2 matches that has (probably) cost us automatic promotion. Teams can afford a blip during a season but not a 13 game one.Chris_from_Sidcup said:I know these things probably even out over a season, but given how good our home form has been, it's the 5 points dropped at home to Mansfield and Crawley that i think will ultimately end up costing us automatic promotion.
Outside of that awful run we have taken 65 points from 29 games.14 -
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No, I got your point. But it’s a meaningless point._MrDick said:
I think you’re missing my point .. If at the end of the season we come up, say, 6 points short, those are the three games that you could say that’s where we lost it. But hey-ho …lordromford said:
Yeah. And if it weren’t for those dropped points against Reading, Rotherham, Blackpool, Stevenage, Bristol Rovers, Stockport, Barnsley, Wrexham, Exeter, Huddersfield, Crawley, Lincoln, Mansfield, Birmingham and Peterborough we’d have won the league by now._MrDick said:Those dropped points against Barnsley, Blackpool and Crawley are going to come back and bite us on the arse, aren’t they!
Then again, if it weren’t for those wins against Wigan, Orient, Bolton, Shrewsbury, Birmingham, Burton, Northampton, Cambridge, Wycombe, Bristol Rovers, Stevenage, Peterborough, Exeter, Barnsley, Crawley, Huddersfield and Mansfield, we’d be deep in relegation trouble.
🥸If you say ‘If only’ about a select three games, you’re deliberately choosing to ignore games where we got 3 points but it could (and sometimes should) have been less. You’re essentially saying “If only we’d had all the good days and none of the bad days.”
It’s a bit like, after matching three numbers, saying “If only I’d picked just three more numbers correctly I’d have won the lottery jackpot.”13 -
I've said this before, but we also got a lucky in away at Bolton, nicked v late winners vs Orient (twice) and Shrewsbury. It all balances itself out.Chris_from_Sidcup said:I know these things probably even out over a season, but given how good our home form has been, it's the 5 points dropped at home to Mansfield and Crawley that i think will ultimately end up costing us automatic promotion.3 -
Thischarente addick said:
It was the 13 game run (from 7 games in) where we took 11 points only winning 2 matches that has (probably) cost us automatic promotion. Teams can afford a blip during a season but not a 13 game one.Chris_from_Sidcup said:I know these things probably even out over a season, but given how good our home form has been, it's the 5 points dropped at home to Mansfield and Crawley that i think will ultimately end up costing us automatic promotion.
Outside of that awful run we have taken 65 points from 29 games.0 -
People were giving jones pelters during that despite the huge amount of injuries we had. We had no Jones, Ramsay or TC. Take those 3 out now and we’d be dropping loads of points again (see Lincoln game last week). Really unlucky that we got all those injuries at once where the rest of the season we’ve had nearly a fully fit squadcharente addick said:
It was the 13 game run (from 7 games in) where we took 11 points only winning 2 matches that has (probably) cost us automatic promotion. Teams can afford a blip during a season but not a 13 game one.Chris_from_Sidcup said:I know these things probably even out over a season, but given how good our home form has been, it's the 5 points dropped at home to Mansfield and Crawley that i think will ultimately end up costing us automatic promotion.
Outside of that awful run we have taken 65 points from 29 games.2 -
Why does scoring a late winner mean we were lucky?cafcnick1992 said:
I've said this before, but we also got a lucky in away at Bolton, nicked v late winners vs Orient (twice) and Shrewsbury. It all balances itself out.Chris_from_Sidcup said:I know these things probably even out over a season, but given how good our home form has been, it's the 5 points dropped at home to Mansfield and Crawley that i think will ultimately end up costing us automatic promotion.
Shrewsbury for example we dominated the game and the winner was deserved. Orient away their keeper was named MOTM before his howlers in injury time.0 -
OK now do Bolton away and Wrexham at home (dodgy penalty at the end).Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Why does scoring a late winner mean we were lucky?cafcnick1992 said:
I've said this before, but we also got a lucky in away at Bolton, nicked v late winners vs Orient (twice) and Shrewsbury. It all balances itself out.Chris_from_Sidcup said:I know these things probably even out over a season, but given how good our home form has been, it's the 5 points dropped at home to Mansfield and Crawley that i think will ultimately end up costing us automatic promotion.
Shrewsbury for example we dominated the game and the winner was deserved. Orient away their keeper was named MOTM before his howlers in injury time.0 -
Not to mention every single other team will have the same sort of moments that could've won them more points.lordromford said:
No, I got your point. But it’s a meaningless point._MrDick said:
I think you’re missing my point .. If at the end of the season we come up, say, 6 points short, those are the three games that you could say that’s where we lost it. But hey-ho …lordromford said:
Yeah. And if it weren’t for those dropped points against Reading, Rotherham, Blackpool, Stevenage, Bristol Rovers, Stockport, Barnsley, Wrexham, Exeter, Huddersfield, Crawley, Lincoln, Mansfield, Birmingham and Peterborough we’d have won the league by now._MrDick said:Those dropped points against Barnsley, Blackpool and Crawley are going to come back and bite us on the arse, aren’t they!
Then again, if it weren’t for those wins against Wigan, Orient, Bolton, Shrewsbury, Birmingham, Burton, Northampton, Cambridge, Wycombe, Bristol Rovers, Stevenage, Peterborough, Exeter, Barnsley, Crawley, Huddersfield and Mansfield, we’d be deep in relegation trouble.
🥸If you say ‘If only’ about a select three games, you’re deliberately choosing to ignore games where we got 3 points but it could (and sometimes should) have been less. You’re essentially saying “If only we’d had all the good days and none of the bad days.”
It’s a bit like, after matching three numbers, saying “If only I’d picked just three more numbers correctly I’d have won the lottery jackpot.”9 -
Exactly, it’s all swings and roundabouts. You can’t pick out a specific game and say we should have got more points, or even less points, in that game. Every team game say the same about numerous games. As someone said above though you can point to that poor run of just two wins in thirteen games and say that run is probably the cause of us not getting top two, if we don’t that is.Talal said:
Not to mention every single other team will have the same sort of moments that could've won them more points.lordromford said:
No, I got your point. But it’s a meaningless point._MrDick said:
I think you’re missing my point .. If at the end of the season we come up, say, 6 points short, those are the three games that you could say that’s where we lost it. But hey-ho …lordromford said:
Yeah. And if it weren’t for those dropped points against Reading, Rotherham, Blackpool, Stevenage, Bristol Rovers, Stockport, Barnsley, Wrexham, Exeter, Huddersfield, Crawley, Lincoln, Mansfield, Birmingham and Peterborough we’d have won the league by now._MrDick said:Those dropped points against Barnsley, Blackpool and Crawley are going to come back and bite us on the arse, aren’t they!
Then again, if it weren’t for those wins against Wigan, Orient, Bolton, Shrewsbury, Birmingham, Burton, Northampton, Cambridge, Wycombe, Bristol Rovers, Stevenage, Peterborough, Exeter, Barnsley, Crawley, Huddersfield and Mansfield, we’d be deep in relegation trouble.
🥸If you say ‘If only’ about a select three games, you’re deliberately choosing to ignore games where we got 3 points but it could (and sometimes should) have been less. You’re essentially saying “If only we’d had all the good days and none of the bad days.”
It’s a bit like, after matching three numbers, saying “If only I’d picked just three more numbers correctly I’d have won the lottery jackpot.”0 -
It is but it's fairly natural to look at games where you dropped points against shit teams as doing the most damage.LargeAddick said:
Exactly, it’s all swings and roundabouts. You can’t pick out a specific game and say we should have got more points, or even less points, in that game. Every team game say the same about numerous games. As someone said above though you can point to that poor run of just two wins in thirteen games and say that run is probably the cause of us not getting top two, if we don’t that is.Talal said:
Not to mention every single other team will have the same sort of moments that could've won them more points.lordromford said:
No, I got your point. But it’s a meaningless point._MrDick said:
I think you’re missing my point .. If at the end of the season we come up, say, 6 points short, those are the three games that you could say that’s where we lost it. But hey-ho …lordromford said:
Yeah. And if it weren’t for those dropped points against Reading, Rotherham, Blackpool, Stevenage, Bristol Rovers, Stockport, Barnsley, Wrexham, Exeter, Huddersfield, Crawley, Lincoln, Mansfield, Birmingham and Peterborough we’d have won the league by now._MrDick said:Those dropped points against Barnsley, Blackpool and Crawley are going to come back and bite us on the arse, aren’t they!
Then again, if it weren’t for those wins against Wigan, Orient, Bolton, Shrewsbury, Birmingham, Burton, Northampton, Cambridge, Wycombe, Bristol Rovers, Stevenage, Peterborough, Exeter, Barnsley, Crawley, Huddersfield and Mansfield, we’d be deep in relegation trouble.
🥸If you say ‘If only’ about a select three games, you’re deliberately choosing to ignore games where we got 3 points but it could (and sometimes should) have been less. You’re essentially saying “If only we’d had all the good days and none of the bad days.”
It’s a bit like, after matching three numbers, saying “If only I’d picked just three more numbers correctly I’d have won the lottery jackpot.”
For example if Chelsea miss out on the CL spots they will likely look towards the 5 points dropped v Ipswich rather than the 5 points dropped v Arsenal. It's still 5 points, but you focus on the winnable games more.0 -
I thought we were lucky as a whole for the Barnsley away game , I know they equalised late on but as a whole they more than deserved a point against us3
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Shrewsbury also missed a sitter against us in added time about a minute before we scored. I wonder how our season would have panned out had that gone in.4
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Wrexham: Current 82
- Bristol Rovers (H) 3
- Blackpool (A) 3
- Charlton (H) 1
- Lincoln (A) 1
FINAL PTS: 90
Wycombe: Current 81
- Bolton (A) 3
- Charlton (H) 1
- Orient (A) 0
- Stockport (H) 3
FINAL PTS: 88
Stockport: Current 77
- Peterborough (A) 1
- Huddersfield (H) 3
- Lincoln (H) 3
- Wycombe (A) 0
FINAL PTS: 84
Charlton: Current 76
- Northampton (H) 3
- Wycombe (A) 1
- Wrexham (A) 1
- Burton (H) 3
FINAL PTS: 84
2. Wrexham
3. Wycombe
4. Stockport better GD
5. Charlton
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Wrexham: Current 82
- Bristol Rovers (H) 0
- Blackpool (A) 0
- Charlton (H) 0
- Lincoln (A) 0
FINAL PTS: 82
Wycombe: Current 81
- Bolton (A) 0
- Charlton (H) 0
- Orient (A) 0
Stockport (H) 1
FINAL PTS: 82
Stockport: Current 77
- Peterborough (A) 0
- Huddersfield (H) 0
- Lincoln (H) 0
- Wycombe (A) 1
FINAL PTS: 78
Charlton: Current 76
- Northampton (H) 3
- Wycombe (A) 3
- Wrexham (A) 3
- Burton (H) 3
FINAL PTS: 88Get the champagne on ice
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This.lordromford said:
No, I got your point. But it’s a meaningless point._MrDick said:
I think you’re missing my point .. If at the end of the season we come up, say, 6 points short, those are the three games that you could say that’s where we lost it. But hey-ho …lordromford said:
Yeah. And if it weren’t for those dropped points against Reading, Rotherham, Blackpool, Stevenage, Bristol Rovers, Stockport, Barnsley, Wrexham, Exeter, Huddersfield, Crawley, Lincoln, Mansfield, Birmingham and Peterborough we’d have won the league by now._MrDick said:Those dropped points against Barnsley, Blackpool and Crawley are going to come back and bite us on the arse, aren’t they!
Then again, if it weren’t for those wins against Wigan, Orient, Bolton, Shrewsbury, Birmingham, Burton, Northampton, Cambridge, Wycombe, Bristol Rovers, Stevenage, Peterborough, Exeter, Barnsley, Crawley, Huddersfield and Mansfield, we’d be deep in relegation trouble.
🥸If you say ‘If only’ about a select three games, you’re deliberately choosing to ignore games where we got 3 points but it could (and sometimes should) have been less. You’re essentially saying “If only we’d had all the good days and none of the bad days.”
It’s a bit like, after matching three numbers, saying “If only I’d picked just three more numbers correctly I’d have won the lottery jackpot.”
If we had lost at Orient would you be saying..."if only we had scored 2 goals in 6 minutes of added on time".
No, of course not. It is what it is. We lost points when we shouldnt & gained them when we shouldn't. That's football.4 -
_MrDick said:Those dropped points against Barnsley, Blackpool and Crawley are going to come back and bite us on the arse, aren’t they!
No because of the amount of draws which became wins, Small's late winner at the valley, the mugged win at Bolton from 1-0 down and so many points gained in away games especially from games we could have lost.
The Shrewsbury striker miss ! Points are always dropped over a season from winning positions but we don't do it too often this season quite the opposite.
We are in credit.6 -
It's a shame Wrexham are playing at home to the worst away side in the division on Friday against Bristol Rovers. The gas have lost 16 out of 21 games away and only won 3 times!1
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Nothing dodgy about that penalty!cafcnick1992 said:
OK now do Bolton away and Wrexham at home (dodgy penalty at the end).Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Why does scoring a late winner mean we were lucky?cafcnick1992 said:
I've said this before, but we also got a lucky in away at Bolton, nicked v late winners vs Orient (twice) and Shrewsbury. It all balances itself out.Chris_from_Sidcup said:I know these things probably even out over a season, but given how good our home form has been, it's the 5 points dropped at home to Mansfield and Crawley that i think will ultimately end up costing us automatic promotion.
Shrewsbury for example we dominated the game and the winner was deserved. Orient away their keeper was named MOTM before his howlers in injury time.1 -
Like I said before, it may seem rose tinted to some but it is absolutely not beyond the realms that the following happens:
Wrexham and us both win on Friday.We beat Wycombe, Wrexham lose to Blackpool.That then means we could draw level with them with a victory up at their place which brings the last game as a straight shootout. Throw into that Wycombe play Stockport last game of the season.This is far from over! People are saying Wrexham are dead certs….i don’t get it, despite Wycombes run in, they are only a point behind them!!3 -
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility but I think the fact we are behind Stockport now makes things more difficult. When it was 2 teams to overhaul and we had games against both it was more likely. I wouldn’t be that surprised if Stockport win all 4 games and that’s certainly more likely than us going to both Wycombe and Wrexham away and winningcafc_se7 said:Like I said before, it may seem rose tinted to some but it is absolutely not beyond the realms that the following happens:
Wrexham and us both win on Friday.We beat Wycombe, Wrexham lose to Blackpool.That then means we could draw level with them with a victory up at their place which brings the last game as a straight shootout. Throw into that Wycombe play Stockport last game of the season.This is far from over! People are saying Wrexham are dead certs….i don’t get it, despite Wycombes run in, they are only a point behind them!!3 -
Trying to stay as realistic as possible...
Wrexham: Current 82
- Bristol Rovers (H) W - Rovers are awful and going down. Cannot defend.
- Blackpool (A) D - Blackpool away is tough.
- Charlton (H) D - Flip-flop between a draw and a Wrexham win. God only knows. It'll be VERY tight.
- Lincoln (A) W - Lincoln will be on the beach already.
FINAL PTS: 90
Wycombe: Current 81
- Bolton (A) W - Bolton are not as good as some people think. Potential banana skin, but should be able to grind out the win.
- Charlton (H) D - Think we are good for a point here.
- Orient (A) D - Another tricky game. Coin flip.
- Stockport (H) L - I think Stockport can win this.
FINAL PTS: 86
Stockport: Current 77
- Peterborough (A) W - Posh with Wembley hangover.
- Huddersfield (H) W - Huddersfield are crap.
- Lincoln (H) W - As with Wrexham, on the beach and beatable.
- Wycombe (A) W - Carrot on a stick to beat these and not face us.
FINAL PTS: 89
Charlton: Current 76
- Northampton (H) W - Must win.
- Wycombe (A) D - Point is a realistic outcome. Maybe we could nick it. Away from home, we are beatable, sadly.
- Wrexham (A) D - I dunno about this. Wrexham is a tough place to go. Squeaky bum time. Coin flip game.
- Burton (H) W - Must win, but HOLY MOLY they need to be safe by then or we have a tricky game. They have top 10 form.
FINAL PTS: 84
2. Wrexham
3. Stockport
4. Wycombe
5. Charlton
Maybe I'm being negative, but I think Wrexham should still get 2nd with some minor wobbles. Stockport are the absolute danger team we want to avoid and I genuinely think they could win 4/4 - they can win the first 3 for a big battle for 3rd on the last day. Wycombe are bottling things a bit and the last game against Stockport is massive. For us, just avoid defeat in all the games and take anything we can from Wrexham and Wycombe. We know we can be tough to beat, and any results help build confidence. I don't think we can do 4/4 with those away games, but who knows.
The worst outcome is getting Stockport over two legs and playing them away for the second leg. I want to see the Wycombe collapse so we get them over 2 legs and then probably Stockport at Wembley. Wycombe over two legs is what I want, and I'll take that in either game order, meaning 5th is fine - losing 3rd would be a big mental hit for them.7
