Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

I just checked the odds of Wrexham vs Bristol Rovers. Wrexham are best odds of 9/4 on, so in other words they're priced to win the game around 70% of the time. That suggests Bristol Rovers though underdogs aren't quite the absolute no hopers they've being painted as.

SantaClaus said:

I just checked the odds of Wrexham vs Bristol City.
Wrexham are best odds of 9/4 on, so in other words they're priced to win the game around 70% of the time. That suggests Bristol City though underdogs aren't quite the absolute no hopers they've being painted as.

Seems like Wrexham have already been promoted as they're playing Bristol City on Saturday!

Not sure why people are shocked that Stockport are being cited as the team we don't want over two legs in the playoffs. Last month we were very lucky to escape with a nil nil at theirs. Im guessing they didn't watch the game and just saw the score. 

Rothko said:

People seem pretty high on Stockport all of a sudden

For the last 3 weeks I keep seeing that Stockport are the team to avoid and Wycombe are going to collapse and finish 5th, yet if you look at the table today WW  are 1 point behind Wrexham. 
Twists and turns ahead and the only thing I know is, much to my surprise* CAFC are going to be in the play offs for the first time since the Purrington/Bauer final.

* I said 7th to 10th back in August.

MuttleyCAFC said:

I would be very surprised if Stockport won all four games. I would be equally surprised if we do. The point is that if we do, we could still get second. It will mean doing something we haven't been able to do all season and there are two tough away games within that. But it is possible at this stage and I would expect us to recognise that, in a similar way I would expect Stockport fans to recognise the possibility too. Is it still on, yes it absolutely is. One more defeat or even a draw and it will be off.

Their form over the last 15 games has been as good as ours - this is the problem and the point of concern. They have 3 winnable games - Posh away is against a team that just peaked in the pizza cup at Wembley and will almost certainly dip this Friday, then two relative home bankers. Then it's their away game at Wycombe last day. Their games build to a huge one at the end where they could nick 3rd (or even 2nd) if Wrexham do anything silly. Our away game against them was a massive battle and is still fresh in the mind. I think they'll be thinking exactly the same as us and using that to motivate.

If we get Stockport, we want the home leg second, ideally. I just feel that, with their form and games, they have the better shot being above us. Only the Wycombe game is the one you'd think they would drop points, if I were a betting man. Their form is so similar to ours and I just expect them to win 3/4 minimum.

For us, I think it's about having TC and LJones back - if they could play all 4, I'd say we have a fighting chance of winning 4/4. Without them, odds of that drastically reduces. You could also add in reductions if any other key players got injured. I feel like NJ has been trying to manage this as much as he can, but it's so hard. When your season could come down to two playoff games against a physical side like Stockport, one eye HAS to be on keeping players fit for those games. We'll keep trying to win our games, but I would absolutely take a dropped point or two if it meant we were at full strength for the playoffs.

SantaClaus said:

I just checked the odds of Wrexham vs Bristol Rovers. Wrexham are best odds of 9/4 on, so in other words they're priced to win the game around 70% of the time. That suggests Bristol Rovers though underdogs aren't quite the absolute no hopers they've being painted as.

Just a shame Rovers have 0 points out of their last 18 and from nowhere heading for the drop.

MintoHumbugs said:

SantaClaus said:

I just checked the odds of Wrexham vs Bristol Rovers. Wrexham are best odds of 9/4 on, so in other words they're priced to win the game around 70% of the time. That suggests Bristol Rovers though underdogs aren't quite the absolute no hopers they've being painted as.

Just a shame Rovers have 0 points out of their last 18 and from nowhere heading for the drop.

I agree they look a hopeless cause. I just find it interesting that the odds don't quite reflect (checks League One table) Rovers' awful statistics..

There is a scenario where we could be 2nd come 5pm Monday 

Braziliance said:

We battered Stockport at home and they were extremely fortunate to walk away with a point, their fans said the same.

If we did get them, I could see us beating them comfortably at home and keeping it tight at their place. 

Usually a home game for the second leg is a massive advantage, but I think a Nathan Jones siege type scenario away suits us. 

The concern is if the tie goes to extra time then being at home is a big advantage. We are creating a lot at home lately but play off games can be a lot more cagey especially 1st legs where neither team wants to throw the tie away in the first game. I don’t think it would be comfortable but I think we could definitely beat them at home and scrape through away 

As per Callumcafc's post above, the game at theirs tells a different story. At best you can say the home team were better across the two games, which makes whoever gets the decisive home leg of a playoff very important. 

Of course I hope we will be much better in the away game should we get them in the playoffs, but Im nervous about the possibility.....

Callumcafc said:

Braziliance said:

We battered Stockport at home and they were extremely fortunate to walk away with a point, their fans said the same.

If we did get them, I could see us beating them comfortably at home and keeping it tight at their place. 

Usually a home game for the second leg is a massive advantage, but I think a Nathan Jones siege type scenario away suits us. 

You’re being a bit rose tinted about our chances against Stockport aren’t you? :-)




Put yourself in the shoes of a Stockport fan and read your post again:

We battered Charlton at home and they were extremely fortunate to walk away with a point, their fans said the same.

If we did get them, I could see us beating them comfortably at home and keeping it tight at their place. 

Usually a home game for the second leg is a massive advantage, but I think a Dave Challinor siege type scenario away suits us.

No I just believe we will beat them. Over the course of two legs I think we have more about us. I wouldn't swap any of their players for ours with the exception of 1 or 2 and maybe their keeper. 

Time will tell, but I'm quite confident whoever we get we are beating. The only team I'd be worried about away is Reading as our arsehole falls out there. 

Not that any of this matters as we will be taking 2nd on the final day. 

Mezza07 said:

Why’s no1 mentioning the fact we are Charlton and could lose all remanding games and not even get playoff let alone 2nd or who we should fear in playoffs 

1000/1 that we don’t make the playoffs is probably why

I'll add my name to the don't want Stockport list. Just feels like Challinor is the type of manager that will draw up a game plan to negate our strengths, I don't want us getting drawn into a scrap and then done off a setpiece which is exactly what I could see them doing. Wycombe wouldn't concern me bar Kone , their fans don't seem happy with Dodds as manager anyway.

Braziliance said:

NabySarr said:

Braziliance said:

We battered Stockport at home and they were extremely fortunate to walk away with a point, their fans said the same.

If we did get them, I could see us beating them comfortably at home and keeping it tight at their place. 

Usually a home game for the second leg is a massive advantage, but I think a Nathan Jones siege type scenario away suits us. 

The concern is if the tie goes to extra time then being at home is a big advantage. We are creating a lot at home lately but play off games can be a lot more cagey especially 1st legs where neither team wants to throw the tie away in the first game. I don’t think it would be comfortable but I think we could definitely beat them at home and scrape through away 

That's the main advantage, prospect of extra time and play-offs, I genuinely believe whoever we get if we land in that unfavourable position we will beat at home and draw away.

I think I said about 25 games or so ago if this team can get in the play-offs we will win them. 

We just have that combination of tough to beat and enough to win. Assuming our first XI is available.

I think this is the key, I’ll be confident if we have the first 11 fit. That’s where there are some interesting decisions to be made, TC was struggling on Saturday, but resting him now would be a big blow to our slim top 2 hopes. If we can keep him fit and in form then he could get us promoted the way he’s playing