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How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?
Comments
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7 home draws and a win at either Oxford or Wednesday should do it2
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The only issue with this analysis is it assumes the higher points on average between 4th and 23rd will be spread evenly, or at least that it will significantly impact teams at the bottom. It's more likely that the teams higher up are the most impacted by it and that's what the table shows - there are loads of teams in the playoff mix and then a sharp drop off just above us.killerandflash said:Last season two teams got 100 points, with Sheffield United in 3rd getting 90, while the bottom club Cardiff got 44.
This season on ppg, Coventry would finish on 92, Boro 85, and Ipswich 82 so the teams at the top aren't as good. Plus the team at the bottom is way worse - on 11 before deductions and unlikely to get many more.
So on average everyone between 4th and 23rd will get more points than their equivalent last season. Last season 50 was required to stay up, and it could be higher this season.
Points deductions do affect this though.
Not sure if this was in response to my PPG post or not, but personally I still think that is a clearer way to look at it and 47/48 is more likely than 50+0 -
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Another £20 from me to the Upbeats if we hit 552
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There is no way we will get 3 to 4 more wins. I really hope we do, but it's unlikely. Avoiding losses will be the way that sees us staying in this league.
IF we get the points required, we will only just scrape through. I think it will be a skin of the teeth scenario, and that will be a superb achievement.
I can't help but feel a little cheated by the words of ambition spoken by the club owbers of the longer term vision.
L1 wasn't our level, mid champ the goal, stability was the buzz word.... so why hasn't the recruitmet mirrored that.
Bottom 3 budget, usually equates to relegation league standings.
NJ can only work his magic for so long, eventually, the tools he's given need to match the owners words.5 -
ozaddick said:There is no way we will get 3 to 4 more wins. I really hope we do, but it's unlikely. Avoiding losses will be the way that sees us staying in this league.
IF we get the points required, we will only just scrape through. I think it will be a skin of the teeth scenario, and that will be a superb achievement.
I can't help but feel a little cheated by the words of ambition spoken by the club owbers of the longer term vision.
L1 wasn't our level, mid champ the goal, stability was the buzz word.... so why hasn't the recruitmet mirrored that.
Bottom 3 budget, usually equates to relegation league standings.
NJ can only work his magic for so long, eventually, the tools he's given need to match the owners words.
The Owners have Invested 3M into the stadium they spent 11.6M on transfer fees probably spent more on staff/training ground as well that signifies investment to me.2 years ago our budget was 12.1M on wages Preston who are an established championship side but are on the smaller side are still spending 26M a year on wages which shows the ridiculous gap to even get above a bottom 3 budget.FFP rules allow you to lose 39M spread across 3 years in the championship, we’re currently set to lose 13-14M this year so technically this level of investment over 3 years isn’t even physically possible until we up our revenue.Considering our previous owners consist of TS now behind bars who hired his family into roles and wanted to cut cost, ESI where all the money went to Southall’s BMW’s and Duchatelet who didn’t invest a penny and wanted to make us a Belgian club (that’s just the surface all 3 of those previous ownerships)
slating our current ownership considering where we were before they took over us, where we now are and the comparison to previous ownership groups genuinely have no words28 -
I think they need a change of strategy next summer. Instead of higher fees, spend more of the budget on wages. We were mid table in the league for fees spent last summer. As above, we can only do so much due to PSR, but would be interested to know how Preston can have a wage budget of 26m and we can’t (similar sizes stadium, season ticket prices). It might simply be that they are more established and stable and they have had decent player sales.3
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Crispywood said:ozaddick said:There is no way we will get 3 to 4 more wins. I really hope we do, but it's unlikely. Avoiding losses will be the way that sees us staying in this league.
IF we get the points required, we will only just scrape through. I think it will be a skin of the teeth scenario, and that will be a superb achievement.
I can't help but feel a little cheated by the words of ambition spoken by the club owbers of the longer term vision.
L1 wasn't our level, mid champ the goal, stability was the buzz word.... so why hasn't the recruitmet mirrored that.
Bottom 3 budget, usually equates to relegation league standings.
NJ can only work his magic for so long, eventually, the tools he's given need to match the owners words.
The Owners have Invested 3M into the stadium they spent 11.6M on transfer fees probably spent more on staff/training ground as well that signifies investment to me.2 years ago our budget was 12.1M on wages Preston who are an established championship side but are on the smaller side are still spending 26M a year on wages which shows the ridiculous gap to even get above a bottom 3 budget.FFP rules allow you to lose 39M spread across 3 years in the championship, we’re currently set to lose 13-14M this year so technically this level of investment over 3 years isn’t even physically possible until we up our revenue.Considering our previous owners consist of TS now behind bars who hired his family into roles and wanted to cut cost, ESI where all the money went to Southall’s BMW’s and Duchatelet who didn’t invest a penny and wanted to make us a Belgian club (that’s just the surface all 3 of those previous ownerships)
slating our current ownership considering where we were before they took over us, where we now are and the comparison to previous ownership groups genuinely have no words
Infrastructure spending and youth team spending are carved out of ffp.1 -
as much as we wont get the wins the clubs around us aren't suddenly going to start winning all of there games.
my predictions
wrexham h - 0
brum h - 1
boro a - 0 ( would personally rest players for this game )
oxford a - 3
norwich h - 0
bristol h - 1
watford a - 3
preston h - 1
sheff weds a - 3
hull h - 0
swansea a - 0
12 points total takes us to 54 points2 -
Think we might get something from Norwich and Hull at home also. Could get to 55.palarsehater said:as much as we wont get the wins the clubs around us aren't suddenly going to start winning all of there games.
my predictions
wrexham h - 0
brum h - 1
boro a - 0 ( would personally rest players for this game )
oxford a - 3
norwich h - 0
bristol h - 1
watford a - 3
preston h - 1
sheff weds a - 3
hull h - 0
swansea a - 0
12 points total takes us to 54 points0 -
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I am convinced we will fluff the oxford game, we have a terrible record against them8
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palarsehater said:as much as we wont get the wins the clubs around us aren't suddenly going to start winning all of there games.
my predictions
wrexham h - 0
brum h - 1
boro a - 0 ( would personally rest players for this game )
oxford a - 3
norwich h - 0
bristol h - 1
watford a - 3
preston h - 1
sheff weds a - 3
hull h - 0
swansea a - 0
12 points total takes us to 54 points
I think our home form is what will see us through - we have won 7 out of 16 and only lost 5 games at The Valley all season - whereas our away form is almost the exact opposite - I think that run where we play Norwich - Preston will be really important - hopefully by that stage of the season all 4 will be in that mid to lower mid-table not a lot to play for stage which would benefit us (although I think all 4 are winnable even if they are in with a sniff) and 3 of them are at home where we have been best. Wouldn't be shocked if we did fluff Oxford and then go on an unbeaten run and winning a couple of the next 4. Need LJ back ASAP though because if he is out for any decent length of time we are gonna struggle.
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Will be amazed if we win three games away from home.palarsehater said:as much as we wont get the wins the clubs around us aren't suddenly going to start winning all of there games.
my predictions
wrexham h - 0
brum h - 1
boro a - 0 ( would personally rest players for this game )
oxford a - 3
norwich h - 0
bristol h - 1
watford a - 3
preston h - 1
sheff weds a - 3
hull h - 0
swansea a - 0
12 points total takes us to 54 pointsAnd if you watched Watford last night no way we win there.4 -
But, if we get to 55 points, will you say that it's only 49 points, as the Sheff Utd and Leicester games don't count?Athletico Charlton said:Todds_right_hook said:
The league table isn’t over the last 22 games or games against 11 men. From the 34 games we’ve played, we are top of the bottom 7. We have more points than 6 other teams with one already relegated. Four teams need to better our points per game ratio for the rest of the season for us to get relegated.Athletico Charlton said:
0.82 ppg in our last 22 games is 38 points over a season.Todds_right_hook said:
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough
0.60 ppg in our last 20 games against 11 men is 28 points over a season
Both suggest bottom 2 form to me. That's our form since 8th November (ie for months).
I am happy to have a £20 bet for the Community Trust that we don't make 55 points, I would be even more happy if you end up winning it and I am the one who pays up.
we are in a good place and I’m confident we will stay up. Unfortunately I don’t bet anymore as I’ve seen what betting can do to people. But if we don’t get 55 points, I will happily donate to either the upbeats or the community trust
Cool, if we do get to 55 points I will donate £20 to each of the upbeats and Trust and we won't call it a bet. I will also be very happy we have stayed up.1 -
The actions of our custodians are applauded, not slated.Crispywood said:ozaddick said:There is no way we will get 3 to 4 more wins. I really hope we do, but it's unlikely. Avoiding losses will be the way that sees us staying in this league.
IF we get the points required, we will only just scrape through. I think it will be a skin of the teeth scenario, and that will be a superb achievement.
I can't help but feel a little cheated by the words of ambition spoken by the club owbers of the longer term vision.
L1 wasn't our level, mid champ the goal, stability was the buzz word.... so why hasn't the recruitmet mirrored that.
Bottom 3 budget, usually equates to relegation league standings.
NJ can only work his magic for so long, eventually, the tools he's given need to match the owners words.
The Owners have Invested 3M into the stadium they spent 11.6M on transfer fees probably spent more on staff/training ground as well that signifies investment to me.2 years ago our budget was 12.1M on wages Preston who are an established championship side but are on the smaller side are still spending 26M a year on wages which shows the ridiculous gap to even get above a bottom 3 budget.FFP rules allow you to lose 39M spread across 3 years in the championship, we’re currently set to lose 13-14M this year so technically this level of investment over 3 years isn’t even physically possible until we up our revenue.Considering our previous owners consist of TS now behind bars who hired his family into roles and wanted to cut cost, ESI where all the money went to Southall’s BMW’s and Duchatelet who didn’t invest a penny and wanted to make us a Belgian club (that’s just the surface all 3 of those previous ownerships)
slating our current ownership considering where we were before they took over us, where we now are and the comparison to previous ownership groups genuinely have no words
I agree with what you've posted, this ownership have spent so much more money than any other previous groups over the years.
The investments in all facets of infrastructure in CAFC are not only very welcome, they were very much needed to bring the club up to today's standard of other championship level clubs.
The Valley is looking fresh and bloody brilliant, Sparrows lane too. Upgrades to the whole team that operate a football club have been great.
My only concern is risking all that investment with a squad that is bottom 3, investment wise. That's the bit I don't understand. We have a real opportunity to kick on, and if we stay up, I hope the squad budget is increased to ensure all this hard work isn't undone. This league is so different from the last time we were here.
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Absolutely there’s always the argument could money have been invested better or differently which is fair. But any investment is positive don’t think we should be actively looking for negatives from a good thing. If anything that’s less down to the owners and more on the entire footballing operations department who allocate the resourcesozaddick said:
The actions of our custodians are applauded, not slated.Crispywood said:ozaddick said:There is no way we will get 3 to 4 more wins. I really hope we do, but it's unlikely. Avoiding losses will be the way that sees us staying in this league.
IF we get the points required, we will only just scrape through. I think it will be a skin of the teeth scenario, and that will be a superb achievement.
I can't help but feel a little cheated by the words of ambition spoken by the club owbers of the longer term vision.
L1 wasn't our level, mid champ the goal, stability was the buzz word.... so why hasn't the recruitmet mirrored that.
Bottom 3 budget, usually equates to relegation league standings.
NJ can only work his magic for so long, eventually, the tools he's given need to match the owners words.
The Owners have Invested 3M into the stadium they spent 11.6M on transfer fees probably spent more on staff/training ground as well that signifies investment to me.2 years ago our budget was 12.1M on wages Preston who are an established championship side but are on the smaller side are still spending 26M a year on wages which shows the ridiculous gap to even get above a bottom 3 budget.FFP rules allow you to lose 39M spread across 3 years in the championship, we’re currently set to lose 13-14M this year so technically this level of investment over 3 years isn’t even physically possible until we up our revenue.Considering our previous owners consist of TS now behind bars who hired his family into roles and wanted to cut cost, ESI where all the money went to Southall’s BMW’s and Duchatelet who didn’t invest a penny and wanted to make us a Belgian club (that’s just the surface all 3 of those previous ownerships)
slating our current ownership considering where we were before they took over us, where we now are and the comparison to previous ownership groups genuinely have no words
I agree with what you've posted, this ownership have spent so much more money than any other previous groups over the years.
The investments in all facets of infrastructure in CAFC are not only very welcome, they were very much needed to bring the club up to today's standard of other championship level clubs.
The Valley is looking fresh and bloody brilliant, Sparrows lane too. Upgrades to the whole team that operate a football club have been great.
My only concern is risking all that investment with a squad that is bottom 3, investment wise. That's the bit I don't understand. We have a real opportunity to kick on, and if we stay up, I hope the squad budget is increased to ensure all this hard work isn't undone. This league is so different from the last time we were here.0 -
We spent plenty of money on players last summer.
Unfortunately, we didn't spend it very well.9 -
Would have loved to have had £11.6 million to spend on players in our first season back up!Crispywood said:ozaddick said:There is no way we will get 3 to 4 more wins. I really hope we do, but it's unlikely. Avoiding losses will be the way that sees us staying in this league.
IF we get the points required, we will only just scrape through. I think it will be a skin of the teeth scenario, and that will be a superb achievement.
I can't help but feel a little cheated by the words of ambition spoken by the club owbers of the longer term vision.
L1 wasn't our level, mid champ the goal, stability was the buzz word.... so why hasn't the recruitmet mirrored that.
Bottom 3 budget, usually equates to relegation league standings.
NJ can only work his magic for so long, eventually, the tools he's given need to match the owners words.
The Owners have Invested 3M into the stadium they spent 11.6M on transfer fees probably spent more on staff/training ground as well that signifies investment to me.2 years ago our budget was 12.1M on wages Preston who are an established championship side but are on the smaller side are still spending 26M a year on wages which shows the ridiculous gap to even get above a bottom 3 budget.FFP rules allow you to lose 39M spread across 3 years in the championship, we’re currently set to lose 13-14M this year so technically this level of investment over 3 years isn’t even physically possible until we up our revenue.Considering our previous owners consist of TS now behind bars who hired his family into roles and wanted to cut cost, ESI where all the money went to Southall’s BMW’s and Duchatelet who didn’t invest a penny and wanted to make us a Belgian club (that’s just the surface all 3 of those previous ownerships)
slating our current ownership considering where we were before they took over us, where we now are and the comparison to previous ownership groups genuinely have no words1 -
Genuinely weird comment. Where have I said they don't count, your just being daft and making shit up to score some weird point. In my post above I even said 0.82 ppg for our last 22 games (which included those 2 wins).superclive98 said:
But, if we get to 55 points, will you say that it's only 49 points, as the Sheff Utd and Leicester games don't count?Athletico Charlton said:Todds_right_hook said:
The league table isn’t over the last 22 games or games against 11 men. From the 34 games we’ve played, we are top of the bottom 7. We have more points than 6 other teams with one already relegated. Four teams need to better our points per game ratio for the rest of the season for us to get relegated.Athletico Charlton said:
0.82 ppg in our last 22 games is 38 points over a season.Todds_right_hook said:
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough
0.60 ppg in our last 20 games against 11 men is 28 points over a season
Both suggest bottom 2 form to me. That's our form since 8th November (ie for months).
I am happy to have a £20 bet for the Community Trust that we don't make 55 points, I would be even more happy if you end up winning it and I am the one who pays up.
we are in a good place and I’m confident we will stay up. Unfortunately I don’t bet anymore as I’ve seen what betting can do to people. But if we don’t get 55 points, I will happily donate to either the upbeats or the community trust
Cool, if we do get to 55 points I will donate £20 to each of the upbeats and Trust and we won't call it a bet. I will also be very happy we have stayed up.0 -
Previously I've said we need at least 50 points....52 to be absolutely safe.
Now thinking 48/49 should be enough. 50 and we are home & hosed.
We need another 2 wins & 2 or 3 draws. Surely we can do that.3 -
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I agree that the 50 point target feels right at the top end now.
Issue is I think 9 more points is a big ask anyway. Let’s presume we need 2 wins and a couple of draws.
I think we are gonna have to continue to play more expansively at home, in line with today. I don’t care if we get battered in one or two of them as long as we win a couple. Issue is we are so out of practice in playing attacking and trying to create chances it will take some getting used to for the players.
Think the games to target are Bristol City, Preston, Oxford and Sheff Weds for 3 points.
Oxford I can actually see being a real tough one for us so maybe we need to aim to frustrate them and grab a point.3 -
Got a funny feeling we will beat Birmingham1
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Could it be a Tingle ?twiggyaddick said:Got a funny feeling we will beat Birmingham
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Brum - 1
Boro - 1
Oxfotd - 0
norwich - 30 -
Possibly, or my third bottle of beer bringing optimism, either way....I believe!Fanny Fanackapan said:
Could it be a Tingle ?twiggyaddick said:Got a funny feeling we will beat Birmingham0 -
Wrong thread.kinveachyaddick said:Brum - 1
Boro - 1
Oxfotd - 0
norwich - 31 -
One thing that perhaps isn't being considered is that as we get closer to the end of the season, we will be facing some sides with nothing to play for. Preston and Swansea's seasons will be over by the time we face them, Hull will potentially have a play off place secured and be resting some players.
Admittedly that also applies to any other bottom sides who have games against teams with little to play for, so you're likely to get some surprise results.
I do agree that the target is unlikely to be 52 points. You've got sides like WBA without a win in 11 and Leicester without a win in 9. Are both of these teams suddenly going to win 5 out of 11 and reach 50 points? Highly unlikely.4 -
Absolutely, we've won 4 games in 24, so you can have serious doubt that we will get 3 from our next 11.
We really can't be losing to Oxford though or that 2nd relegation spot potentially opens right back up.3 -
West Brom's next 5 are all against play off chasing sides (Sheff Utd obviously a pretty outside chance):
Sheff Utd away
Southampton home
Hull home
Bristol City away
Wrexham home
That's not a great run of games for a side that haven't won in 11, scored just 6 goals in those games, which included defeats to Leicester, Portsmouth and Oxford.
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Went back to Claude AI and tried to get him to up his game; take into account:- prediction market data- recent managerial changes- requested output now "who finishes where in the bottom six" not just points required to stay up.
i do this more out of interest in how these platforms work, rather than any belief that they have superior powers in a subject like this (rather the opposite, based on the number of corrections I've needed to give him. But when I read his reasonings, they are basically a collection of the more rational comments on here, as you'd expect. Anyway this is the prediction as it stands now:
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