How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

RichmondSE10Exile

Have been staying off social media for a while - this season was never going to be easy. If offered our current position before the start of the season I’d have taken it. We’re in with a fight and our season-long form just about gets us over the line.

msomerton

With the teams below us looking like teams coming it to form as opposed to us, I would say now it will require 13 pts, I have go from needing 11 pts needed before are run of home games, because of how poor much of our play has been. 

AberystwythAddick

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

AberystwythAddick said:

Looking at the remaining games I’m not sure where our points come from. There of course likely candidates but it’s not a given. 

I know we will probably pick up a couple of points in places we don’t expect but the run in to the end of the season is truly awful 

People said exactly the same after Millwall and we then took 7 points from the next 3 games.

Our run in is not 'truly awful'. We play West brom, Oxford, Sheff Weds so that's 3 of the bottom 4. 

Also it's pretty tough to predict anything in this league. We've picked up points in games against 5 of the current top 6. We're the only team to win at Ipswich, but then we go and lose home and away to Portsmouth who we typically usually do well against.

You’ve just said the exact same thing as me bar not thinking our run in is bad (it is) 

Chris_from_Sidcup

msomerton said:

With the teams below us looking like teams coming it to form as opposed to us, I would say now it will require 13 pts, I have go from needing 11 pts needed before are run of home games, because of how poor much of our play has been. 

Who is coming into form?

Leicester have 0 wins in 6 games, and only 7 points from 10 games.
West Brom have 6 points from 10 games.
Oxford have 6 points from 9 games.
Blackburn just got a win under their new manager but have only 9 points from 10 games.
Portsmouth just beat us but even they have just 3 wins in 8 and 1 of those was against Sheff Weds.

I wouldn't really say anyone is in form.

Garrymanilow

golfaddick said:

Garrymanilow said:

The 4 obvious games for a normal team to target for the ideal 4 wins were Portsmouth, West Brom, Oxford and Sheff Weds. We've binned off the Portsmouth game yet again so that's out but we do tend to win strange games that we shouldn't really. We're not as impregnable at home as we'd like but we do need to look at those three away games as more than just must not lose if we're going to get enough points. The landscape will change as we go as well; the closer we get to the end of the season the more there's a chance that teams like Watford, Bristol City and Preston might have dropped off from the Play-off hunt and lost interest, or that Swansea will have got enough points to care a lot less than we do on the final day. We really need to win at Hillsborough to make sure we've got those free 3 points everyone else has been getting but we absolutely cannot lose at West Brom or Oxford. After that we need to steal another 2 or 3 wins from anywhere else and we should be fine.

Since December we've done worse against the bottom sides than the others. 

Lost twice to Pompey, one time having seemingly grabbed a point from nowhere only to concede 30 secs later. Worse still we were 2 up at Blackburn to then only get a point. We went to Norwich who hadn't kept a clean sheet for 20 matches & lost 1-0 (with a performance about as abysmal as that against Millwall). 

The only win was against 10 men Leicester & had to rely on them missing a penalty to grab all 3 points.

I agree that we do seem to be doing weirdly poorly against weaker teams recently but you do also have to factor in to some of those results that it was when we were really struggling with balance without a LWB. The Leicester one is a bit of a reimagining of history though, we forced that red card because Leaburn was through on goal, we were already all over them and even if they'd scored that penalty it would have been 2-1. We can't diminish that that was a very good result that we earned.

Uboat

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

msomerton said:

With the teams below us looking like teams coming it to form as opposed to us, I would say now it will require 13 pts, I have go from needing 11 pts needed before are run of home games, because of how poor much of our play has been. 

Who is coming into form?

Leicester have 0 wins in 6 games, and only 7 points from 10 games.
West Brom have 6 points from 10 games.
Oxford have 6 points from 9 games.
Blackburn just got a win under their new manager but have only 9 points from 10 games.
Portsmouth just beat us but even they have just 3 wins in 8 and 1 of those was against Sheff Weds.

I wouldn't really say anyone is in form.

I think we’ll be overtaken by Portsmouth plus one of Blackburn and West Brom, but hopefully not both. Really need Leicester to stay shit. 

NabySarr

Uboat said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

msomerton said:

With the teams below us looking like teams coming it to form as opposed to us, I would say now it will require 13 pts, I have go from needing 11 pts needed before are run of home games, because of how poor much of our play has been. 

Who is coming into form?

Leicester have 0 wins in 6 games, and only 7 points from 10 games.
West Brom have 6 points from 10 games.
Oxford have 6 points from 9 games.
Blackburn just got a win under their new manager but have only 9 points from 10 games.
Portsmouth just beat us but even they have just 3 wins in 8 and 1 of those was against Sheff Weds.

I wouldn't really say anyone is in form.

I think we’ll be overtaken by Portsmouth plus one of Blackburn and West Brom, but hopefully not both. Really need Leicester to stay shit. 

West Brom are terrible at the moment. I think there’s a good chance they roll the dice with another manger change if they don’t win a game soon 

ForeverAddickted

NabySarr said:

Uboat said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

msomerton said:

With the teams below us looking like teams coming it to form as opposed to us, I would say now it will require 13 pts, I have go from needing 11 pts needed before are run of home games, because of how poor much of our play has been. 

Who is coming into form?

Leicester have 0 wins in 6 games, and only 7 points from 10 games.
West Brom have 6 points from 10 games.
Oxford have 6 points from 9 games.
Blackburn just got a win under their new manager but have only 9 points from 10 games.
Portsmouth just beat us but even they have just 3 wins in 8 and 1 of those was against Sheff Weds.

I wouldn't really say anyone is in form.

I think we’ll be overtaken by Portsmouth plus one of Blackburn and West Brom, but hopefully not both. Really need Leicester to stay shit. 

West Brom are terrible at the moment. I think there’s a good chance they roll the dice with another manger change if they don’t win a game soon 

Looks at fixture list to see who West Brom have in the next few games

Belv

msomerton said:

With the teams below us looking like teams coming it to form as opposed to us, I would say now it will require 13 pts, I have go from needing 11 pts needed before are run of home games, because of how poor much of our play has been. 

You've just completely made that up. 

thenewbie

msomerton said:

With the teams below us looking like teams coming it to form as opposed to us, I would say now it will require 13 pts, I have go from needing 11 pts needed before are run of home games, because of how poor much of our play has been. 

Over five games, there are two teams who have got the exact same form as us (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) everyone else is worse.

Crispywood

thenewbie said:

msomerton said:

With the teams below us looking like teams coming it to form as opposed to us, I would say now it will require 13 pts, I have go from needing 11 pts needed before are run of home games, because of how poor much of our play has been. 

Over five games, there are two teams who have got the exact same form as us (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) everyone else is worse.

Also got to take into account one of Blackburn’s win was Sheffield Wednesday and Pompeys other win was West Brom we still play both of those 

golfaddick

Garrymanilow said:

golfaddick said:

Garrymanilow said:

The 4 obvious games for a normal team to target for the ideal 4 wins were Portsmouth, West Brom, Oxford and Sheff Weds. We've binned off the Portsmouth game yet again so that's out but we do tend to win strange games that we shouldn't really. We're not as impregnable at home as we'd like but we do need to look at those three away games as more than just must not lose if we're going to get enough points. The landscape will change as we go as well; the closer we get to the end of the season the more there's a chance that teams like Watford, Bristol City and Preston might have dropped off from the Play-off hunt and lost interest, or that Swansea will have got enough points to care a lot less than we do on the final day. We really need to win at Hillsborough to make sure we've got those free 3 points everyone else has been getting but we absolutely cannot lose at West Brom or Oxford. After that we need to steal another 2 or 3 wins from anywhere else and we should be fine.

Since December we've done worse against the bottom sides than the others. 

Lost twice to Pompey, one time having seemingly grabbed a point from nowhere only to concede 30 secs later. Worse still we were 2 up at Blackburn to then only get a point. We went to Norwich who hadn't kept a clean sheet for 20 matches & lost 1-0 (with a performance about as abysmal as that against Millwall). 

The only win was against 10 men Leicester & had to rely on them missing a penalty to grab all 3 points.

I agree that we do seem to be doing weirdly poorly against weaker teams recently but you do also have to factor in to some of those results that it was when we were really struggling with balance without a LWB. The Leicester one is a bit of a reimagining of history though, we forced that red card because Leaburn was through on goal, we were already all over them and even if they'd scored that penalty it would have been 2-1. We can't diminish that that was a very good result that we earned.

I will take umbridge with the line...."Leaburn was through on goal".  

He was fouled just inside the Leicester half. If he hadn"t have been fouled he would have needed to run 50 yards with the ball & then beat the goalkeeper. During the 50 yard run the defender might have caught up with him and/or Leaburn might not have scored. He might even fallen over the ball.  I'd give him less than a 50% success rate of scoring in that position. 

Callumcafc

MillwallFan said:

golfaddick said:

Crispywood said:

Callumcafc said:

Bad result tonight but brush yourself off and get ready to go again at the weekend.

4 wins and a draw or 3 wins and four draws needed from the last 14.

I’ll be shocked if we need 52 points. Also have Sheffield Wednesday to play which is the easiest game of the season 

Yep......that does it.

You do know they took the lead against Millwall. You don't need me to tell you what happens when we go 1-0 down. 

To be totally honest, and I don’t mean this as a dig, just pointing out to give some perspective, they gave us a much tougher game than Charlton did a few weeks earlier. 

Gillingham U9s would give you a tougher game than we will at the Den.

Alwaysneil

I agree, any non-Charlton striker through on goal with only the keeper to beat even with nearly a half to run around 70-80% chance of scoring. Charlton striker 20% chance falling over, 20% chance standing on ball, 20% chance hitting keeper, 20% chance missing target, 20% chance scoring

Callumcafc

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

52 points, another 23 more. That’s 

8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses

4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.

Won 2, drawn 1, lost 2 since.

I’m sticking with the 52 point target so:

6 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
4 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
3 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
2 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses
1 win, 13 draws, 2 losses
0 wins, 16 draws, 0 losses

Another win tonight... for a 52 point target...

5 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
4 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
3 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
2 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
1 win, 10 draws, 4 losses
0 wins, 13 draws, 2 losses

A defeat and a draw follow.

For 52 points:

4 wins, 0 draws, 9 losses
3 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses
2 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses
1 win, 9 draws, 3 losses
12 draws, 1 loss

DamoNorthStand

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

52 points, another 23 more. That’s 

8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses

4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.

Won 2, drawn 1, lost 2 since.

I’m sticking with the 52 point target so:

6 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
4 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
3 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
2 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses
1 win, 13 draws, 2 losses
0 wins, 16 draws, 0 losses

Another win tonight... for a 52 point target...

5 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
4 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
3 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
2 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
1 win, 10 draws, 4 losses
0 wins, 13 draws, 2 losses

A defeat and a draw follow.

For 52 points:

4 wins, 0 draws, 9 losses
3 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses
2 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses
1 win, 9 draws, 3 losses
12 draws, 1 loss

That's the blend of results that jumps out for me. Win 2 of 7 home games, and pick up 6 draws in our final 13 games. That feels doable.

Callumcafc

DamoNorthStand said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

52 points, another 23 more. That’s 

8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses

4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.

Won 2, drawn 1, lost 2 since.

I’m sticking with the 52 point target so:

6 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
4 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
3 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
2 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses
1 win, 13 draws, 2 losses
0 wins, 16 draws, 0 losses

Another win tonight... for a 52 point target...

5 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
4 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
3 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
2 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
1 win, 10 draws, 4 losses
0 wins, 13 draws, 2 losses

A defeat and a draw follow.

For 52 points:

4 wins, 0 draws, 9 losses
3 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses
2 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses
1 win, 9 draws, 3 losses
12 draws, 1 loss

That's the blend of results that jumps out for me. Win 2 of 7 home games, and pick up 6 draws in our final 13 games. That feels doable.

We are 10-10-13 so far. I’d like to think we could win more than two of our last 13 personally.

Danny Addick

DamoNorthStand said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

52 points, another 23 more. That’s 

8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses

4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.

Won 2, drawn 1, lost 2 since.

I’m sticking with the 52 point target so:

6 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
4 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
3 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
2 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses
1 win, 13 draws, 2 losses
0 wins, 16 draws, 0 losses

Another win tonight... for a 52 point target...

5 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
4 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
3 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
2 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
1 win, 10 draws, 4 losses
0 wins, 13 draws, 2 losses

A defeat and a draw follow.

For 52 points:

4 wins, 0 draws, 9 losses
3 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses
2 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses
1 win, 9 draws, 3 losses
12 draws, 1 loss

That's the blend of results that jumps out for me. Win 2 of 7 home games, and pick up 6 draws in our final 13 games. That feels doable.

Plus we have to play Sheffield wed still

DamoNorthStand

Danny Addick said:

DamoNorthStand said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

52 points, another 23 more. That’s 

8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses

4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.

Won 2, drawn 1, lost 2 since.

I’m sticking with the 52 point target so:

6 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
4 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
3 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
2 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses
1 win, 13 draws, 2 losses
0 wins, 16 draws, 0 losses

Another win tonight... for a 52 point target...

5 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
4 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
3 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
2 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
1 win, 10 draws, 4 losses
0 wins, 13 draws, 2 losses

A defeat and a draw follow.

For 52 points:

4 wins, 0 draws, 9 losses
3 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses
2 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses
1 win, 9 draws, 3 losses
12 draws, 1 loss

That's the blend of results that jumps out for me. Win 2 of 7 home games, and pick up 6 draws in our final 13 games. That feels doable.

Plus we have to play Sheffield wed still

Sheff Weds away is an exactly the sort of game we are more likely to trip up in.

Think it’s more likely we beat someone unexpectedly (like we did v Sheff Utd, Ipswich etc).

Crispywood

DamoNorthStand said:

Danny Addick said:

DamoNorthStand said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

52 points, another 23 more. That’s 

8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses

4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.

Won 2, drawn 1, lost 2 since.

I’m sticking with the 52 point target so:

6 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
4 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
3 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
2 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses
1 win, 13 draws, 2 losses
0 wins, 16 draws, 0 losses

Another win tonight... for a 52 point target...

5 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
4 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
3 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
2 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
1 win, 10 draws, 4 losses
0 wins, 13 draws, 2 losses

A defeat and a draw follow.

For 52 points:

4 wins, 0 draws, 9 losses
3 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses
2 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses
1 win, 9 draws, 3 losses
12 draws, 1 loss

That's the blend of results that jumps out for me. Win 2 of 7 home games, and pick up 6 draws in our final 13 games. That feels doable.

Plus we have to play Sheffield wed still

Sheff Weds away is an exactly the sort of game we are more likely to trip up in.

Think it’s more likely we beat someone unexpectedly (like we did v Sheff Utd, Ipswich etc).

I do get we play better in games we’re not expected to dominate but we’re talking about a team with 1 win in 32 and they’ve lost 75% of games they’ve played this season. 

Alwaysneil

We seem more likely to lose heavily or nick a few wins than to get a load of draws. I think we need to be aiming for 3 or 4 wins

BalladMan

Alwaysneil said:

We seem more likely to lose heavily or nick a few wins than to get a load of draws. I think we need to be aiming for 3 or 4 wins

3 wins, 3 draws I reckon 

Wins 

- WBA
- Sheff Wed 

- 1x unpredictable win 

draw with Oxford, 2 others. 

Rothko

My gut instinct is the Premier League will get its way, and soon

Valley11

I really think we need to go for the win on Tuesday, not the same defensive showing v Southampton (even though that game plan was correct).

Eric Ramsay at WBA hasn't won a game, lost 5 out of 8 and they've only scored 4 goals.
Chuck in the toxic atmosphere at The Hawthorns, particularly if we score early.
Got to go for the throat from the off. 

kinveachyaddick

There’s a lot of very average teams in this league. I’m expecting at least four points from Hull, Preston and Bristol City at home. 

MarcusH26

Think we've got at least one unexpected win against a playoff contender in us still. Likes of Bristol City and Watford I would be targeting for wins too 

kinveachyaddick

I was at Watford yesterday - they’re a decent side. I won’t be expecting anything from that one. 

The home games against lower top-half/mid table sides are the ones we can target IMO 

Sage

Our form this season has been 10-10-13, with some absolute stinkers of performances scattered in there. If we continue that kind of run, I expect us to finish the last 13 with about 15 or 16 points.

4 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses
4 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses

If we win against West Brom on Tuesday, I anticipate you’ll likely need 48 or 49 to stay up as I can’t see them getting another 14 or 15 from their last 12 after the run they’re on. They haven’t won in 2026 and have got to play 8 of the top half too, and don’t play Wednesday until the final day of this season.

Leicester might even not get to 50 points either, that’s asking a lot for a team to pick up 17 in 13 when they’ve picked up 11 in their last 13 and have a lot going on off the pitch. They’re also away at Middlesbrough and Ipswich in 2 of their next 3. At home to Norwich in the other one.

For me, in our next 3 we have to pick up 4 points. Do that and we will have 44 from 36. We’d need a handful of points from the last 10.

As poor as some games and performances have been, we are in a decent position. Much thanks to the start we had when we were top half/play-off positions.

Crispywood

Sage said:

Our form this season has been 10-10-13, with some absolute stinkers of performances scattered in there. If we continue that kind of run, I expect us to finish the last 13 with about 15 or 16 points.

4 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses
4 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses

If we win against West Brom on Tuesday, I anticipate you’ll likely need 48 or 49 to stay up as I can’t see them getting another 14 or 15 from their last 12 after the run they’re on. They haven’t won in 2026 and have got to play 8 of the top half too, and don’t play Wednesday until the final day of this season.

Leicester might even not get to 50 points either, that’s asking a lot for a team to pick up 17 in 13 when they’ve picked up 11 in their last 13 and have a lot going on off the pitch. They’re also away at Middlesbrough and Ipswich in 2 of their next 3. At home to Norwich in the other one.

For me, in our next 3 we have to pick up 4 points. Do that and we will have 44 from 36. We’d need a handful of points from the last 10.

As poor as some games and performances have been, we are in a decent position. Much thanks to the start we had when we were top half/play-off positions.

If West Brom change their manager you never know. Their squad is definitely better than what they are producing just hope he’s in charge for our game 

cafc_se7

It’s that time of the season when you find yourself checking the table and the upcoming gameweeks constantly. We have some real opportunities in the coming weeks where we play teams we are capable of getting results against whilst the others around us seem to be playing table toppers or fellow candidates. Like a few others have said, I think it’s 4 more wins we need.