How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

Oggy Red

Targets are needed.
It can provide focus.

But how many points required after 46 games is not at this stage particularly meaningful.

What we do need to do:

1) set a points target for the next block of fixtures .....Lee Bowyer divided the season into blocks of 9 games, with an achievable points target for each block of games.

2) win our mini-league of the teams around us ......right now, our relegation rivals. 

I remember Curbs stressing the importance of this .... every point you take from a team around you, is a point they don't get. 

Win against them = the proverbial '6 pointer'.

It was so careless to lose at Pompey.
We should have been able to hold a 2-0 lead at Blackburn.

We must cut this out, especially against our mini-league rivals.

Braziliance

Oggy Red said:

Targets are needed.
It can provide focus.

But how many points required after 46 games is not at this stage particularly meaningful.

What we do need to do:

1) set a points target for the next block of fixtures .....Lee Bowyer divided the season into blocks of 9 games, with an achievable points target for each block of games.

2) win our mini-league of the teams around us ......right now, our relegation rivals. 

I remember Curbs stressing the importance of this .... every point you take from a team around you, is a point they don't get. 

Win against them = the proverbial '6 pointer'.

It was so careless to lose at Pompey.
We should have been able to hold a 2-0 lead at Blackburn.

We must cut this out, especially against our mini-league rivals.

Wise words from our greatest manager of all time, he knows his stuff.

Callumcafc

52 points, another 23 more. That’s 

8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses

4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.

Chris_from_Sidcup

KingKinsella said:

Looking at the last 10 Championship seasons

-you need 50 points on average for the 22nd team to displace the 21st team

-you need 48 points if you just beat 22nd place team by 1 point

So after 25 games played, we need about 21 points to make 50, so a point a game

BUT Sheffield Weds have been so poor (competitively) that we could expect most teams to get a 6 point boost to the season end total- well may be the top teams would get that anyway but that will spread to other lower teams as well.

So how many points do we need , which teams would you especially target to beat?

You would think so, except their one win this season came at Fratton Park, which just shows how bad Portsmouth are. 

Any team that finishes below Portsmouth or Oxford will be relegated. I'm confident they'll be the two teams who go down with Sheff Weds. 

philcafc

Everyone seems to think that Norwich will pull away from trouble, I'm not so sure. They did win at QPR but have lost their last 2 home games against Watford & Stoke. They are still right in trouble.

KingKinsella

NabySarr said:

Athletico Charlton said:

se9addick said:

JustFloydRoad said:

I'll post what I was going to post in there (before the Admin starts closing down duplicate threads):

Chatting to my steward Charlton (he lives in Woolwich and claims to support Charlton now) friend and he said we are 11 points of the playoffs.

I laughed and said we are 5 points of Norwich (and that is what matters)

Usually 50 points should be enough to stay in the Championship
We are 21 points behind that figure. Could getting less help?

Does Sheffield Wednesday (and potentially Leicester) getting a points deduction change things?

Leicester would have to get a fairly significant deduction to end up getting relegated I think. The bigger issue is Wednesday being rubbish (rather than their points deduction per se) probably means that the teams that finish 23rd & 22nd may have higher points than normal because the should be picking up higher points than average from the team in 24th. 

All in all it’s really hard to predict exactly how many points we’ll need (as this thread proves) but if we get to 51 points with a decent GD and end up relegated we can count ourselves hard done by.  

9 seems to be the reported number if found guilty on all charges.  Would put them on 25.  Below us.  I don't know if their owners are still interested in investing in them but if not suspect they could lose some better players this month.  Still likely stay up but not a foregone conclusion at that point.

Leicester are a really poor team this season. Only reason they aren’t down the bottom already is they have some individuals that are better than championship level. The xG table has them 3rd bottom. Our game against them summed them up, we looked a much better team but then Fatawu put one in the top corner so they won 

They also started the season well and then their form has fallen off, last 9 games they have 10 points which is around relegation levels of performance. A 9 point deduction would put them in big trouble with a toxic fanbase and players that probably already want out 

Watched highlights of LC vs WBA. Quality goals especially LC 1st. My impression is that they are weak defensively, but much better in attack.  Are  they relegation material if they can score and defence is so-so?

Garrymanilow

HastingsRed said:

Garrymanilow said:

The target is always 50 points and then whatever we can get on top of that. The frustration is not getting the win over Blackburn and at least drawing against Pompey as I don't see Norwich and Sheffield Utd staying in the mix. Swansea could improve as well, the one to watch is West Brom, it will all depend on when they finally give up on Ryan Mason. I think Oxford, Pompey and Blackburn are the ones we need to pray don't have any kind of turnaround and we should be ok. Getting 4 points off Blackburn is good, we need to ensure we get 3 off Pompey and at least 4, preferably 6 off Oxford and then force as many home wins as possible. There's always interesting stuff that can happen at the end of the season as well, we might play some teams who are safe but not bothering the play-offs while we're aggressively looking for points to stay up and get some unexpected away wins as a result 

WBA....Ryan Mason gone.

It’s annoying but I’m surprised he lasted as long as he did to be honest

golfaddick

Oggy Red said:

Q: How many points do we need?

A: One point more than the team that finishes 22nd 

Don't even need a point more than 22nd. Just a better GD.

letthegoodtimesroll

Braziliance said:

Oggy Red said:

Targets are needed.
It can provide focus.

But how many points required after 46 games is not at this stage particularly meaningful.

What we do need to do:

1) set a points target for the next block of fixtures .....Lee Bowyer divided the season into blocks of 9 games, with an achievable points target for each block of games.

2) win our mini-league of the teams around us ......right now, our relegation rivals. 

I remember Curbs stressing the importance of this .... every point you take from a team around you, is a point they don't get. 

Win against them = the proverbial '6 pointer'.

It was so careless to lose at Pompey.
We should have been able to hold a 2-0 lead at Blackburn.

We must cut this out, especially against our mini-league rivals.

Wise words from our greatest manager of all time, he knows his stuff.

Shouldn’t it be ‘every point you take from a team around you is 2 points they don’t get’, or even 3 because we increased our points total by 1 as well and therefore they are not 3 points better off than us ?