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How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

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  • blackpool72
    blackpool72 Posts: 24,186
    50 points should be enough. 
    With 4 of our next 6 games being at the Valley it's well and truly in our own hands. 
  • SouthWest_Addicks
    SouthWest_Addicks Posts: 6,326
    52 for me as well. 17 points from 17 matches seems a very achievable target. Especially, with trip to both Sheffield Wednesday & Oxford still to come. I can’t see Oxford getting anywhere near that total so down to 1 spot. 

    Really hoping we can get 5+ points from the next three home matches so we can start to rebuild the gap between ourselves and that final relegation place. 




  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,799
    blackpool72 said:
    50 points should be enough. 
    With 4 of our next 6 games being at the Valley it's well and truly in our own hands. 
    I think i'd want 52 to be safe. Not sure if the total will be higher this year as almost everyone takes points off Sheff Weds, so most teams are getting a 4-6 point bump straight away.

    There's also not going to be teams (like there were last year) getting 100 points, so aside from Wednesday who might not even break 0 points there's a more even points spread across the division.
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,372
    5 + points from the next 3 home games would have us right on track, I wasn't expecting a win Saturday so that was a nice surprise. 

    march could easily be 2 losses to Brum and boro, with Norwich home and oxford away being the only games im hopeful of getting something. 

    also a lot of the teams below us play each other over the rest of the season.  

    Norwich - 
    blackburn h 
    oxford a 
    sheff weds h 
    us a
    pompey h 
     
     
    Pompey - 
    us a 
    norwich a 
    oxford h 


    west brom -
    us h 
    oxford a 
    blackburn a 
    sheff weds a 


    blackburn -
    norwich a 
    pompey a
    oxford a 
    west brom h 

    oxford -
    norwich h 
    west brom h 
    blackburn h 
    us h 
    pompey a 
    sheff weds h 
  • Garrymanilow
    Garrymanilow Posts: 13,958
    As it stands right now barring an unbelievable deadline day or otherwise big upturn of form Oxford, Blackburn and West Brom feel like the most likely to finish below us. Of course things can change very quickly at the bottom - just look at Nathan Jones' Luton in 19/20. Dead and buried in last place on 4th July, safe two weeks later after 3 wins and 2 draws - but at this point I'd be looking for Norwich to smash all those teams (except us) and any games where Oxford, West Brom and Blackburn play each other to be draws. The biggest games feel like Pompey at home and West Brom and Oxford away. If we can get the wins we need there then not only will it boost our points total but it kicks them back down towards the trapdoor.

    After that Wednesday away has to be a win because everyone else is getting one there and Bristol City seem to have spent January selling all their best players so hopefully by the time we play them they will have fallen away from the Playoffs and morale will have gone. That would give us the wins we need to stay up. The Pompey gam feels weirdly ominous though so we'd really help ourselves going in to that by beating QPR on Friday. There's definitely 5 more wins in there for us, though the way this team is we'll probably lose the important ones and then beat Middlesbrough away.
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,799
    palarsehater said:
    5 + points from the next 3 home games would have us right on track, I wasn't expecting a win Saturday so that was a nice surprise. 

    march could easily be 2 losses to Brum and boro, with Norwich home and oxford away being the only games im hopeful of getting something. 

    also a lot of the teams below us play each other over the rest of the season.  

    Norwich - 
    blackburn h 
    oxford a 
    sheff weds h 
    us a
    pompey h 
     
     
    Pompey - 
    us a 
    norwich a 
    oxford h 


    west brom -
    us h 
    oxford a 
    blackburn a 
    sheff weds a 


    blackburn -
    norwich a 
    pompey a
    oxford a 
    west brom h 

    oxford -
    norwich h 
    west brom h 
    blackburn h 
    us h 
    pompey a 
    sheff weds h 
    I think Norwich will be comfortably in mid-table so i'd rule them out.

    Oxford having to play practically every lower placed at home is either going to be good for them if they can pick up points or disastrous if they don't given their remaining away games. 4 of their next 5 games are away (Sheff Utd, Coventry, Middlesbrough and Stoke) so if we can pick up points from our 3 upcoming home games then there should hopefully then be a big gap to them by the end of this month. 
  • JustFloydRoad
    JustFloydRoad Posts: 2,446
    edited February 2


    Love how Hull are expected to go down, but predicted to get top 3.

     


  • jimmymelrose
    jimmymelrose Posts: 10,027
    Don’t you predict what you expect? Makes no sense to me.

    I expect Conor Chaplin to make a big difference to Portsmouth. As a conséquence I don’t expect, and therefore don’t predict, them to go down.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 65,715
    Callumcafc said:
    52 points, another 23 more. That’s 

    8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
    7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
    6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
    5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
    4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
    3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
    2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
    1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses

    4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.
    Won 2, drawn 1, lost 2 since.

    I’m sticking with the 52 point target so:

    6 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
    5 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
    4 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
    3 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
    2 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses
    1 win, 13 draws, 2 losses
    0 wins, 16 draws, 0 losses
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,799
    Callumcafc said:
    Callumcafc said:
    52 points, another 23 more. That’s 

    8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
    7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
    6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
    5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
    4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
    3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
    2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
    1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses

    4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.
    Won 2, drawn 1, lost 2 since.

    I’m sticking with the 52 point target so:

    6 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
    5 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
    4 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
    3 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
    2 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses
    1 win, 13 draws, 2 losses
    0 wins, 16 draws, 0 losses
    Even if we're being pessimistic, this should be feasible.

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  • Masterbrew
    Masterbrew Posts: 311
    As it stands, all bar one club will be getting a minimum of four points from Sheffield Wednesday, so that will raise the bar at the bottom. I think 54 points should be the target, so a point a game to the end of the season 
  • hoof_it_up_to_benty
    hoof_it_up_to_benty Posts: 22,801
    I'll be happy once we get a win against a team with 11 men on the pitch - not sure how fit a lot of our players are when it comes to closing games out. A contrast to last season. .
  • WSS
    WSS Posts: 25,299
    hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
    I'll be happy once we get a win against a team with 11 men on the pitch - not sure how fit a lot of our players are when it comes to closing games out. A contrast to last season. .
    Or the start of this season?
  • Todds_right_hook
    Todds_right_hook Posts: 11,011
    To get to 50 points, Oxford need to nearly double their existing points tally

    blackburn look poor, they would  do well to get 15 more points.

    i reckon less than 50 points will see teams safe this year.

    our current ppg total this season will see us stay up comfortably. We just need to keep plugging away and picking up points.

    we are Charlton, we will probably get beat by sheff wed but score a 95th minute winner at Middlesbrough 
  • Zulu
    Zulu Posts: 343
    Beat Pompey , and we are half way there imo.
  • JustFloydRoad
    JustFloydRoad Posts: 2,446
    edited February 10
    4 wins 2 draw needed to get 50.

     
    Going to use this stat in every discussion I have with any of our lot that think we will be relegated.
  • Sword65pf
    Sword65pf Posts: 1,428
    MillwallFan said:
    JustFloydRoad said:
    4 wins 2 draw needed to get 50.

     
    Going to use this stat in every discussion I have with any of our lot that think we will be relegated.
    Almost certain you’ll stay up this season with room to spare. Have to recruit well in the summer though as next year could be a difficult one. There will be no Sheffield Wednesday or Leicester with their points deductions. Oxford will probably be replaced by a better team. 

    Second season can often prove difficult. Promotion momentum can drive you on in the first season back and I think you had that in abundance for the first couple of months of the season but you won’t have that in the second season. We finished 8th in our first season back up but 21st the following season. 

    Recruit well and stay up next season and with a good management team in place, and I think you’ll go on to be an established 2nd tier club again. But next season will be a massive one for Charlton. 


    See you next season then, because you know your gonna blow it😂😜
  • MillwallFan
    MillwallFan Posts: 3,504
    Sword65pf said:
    MillwallFan said:
    JustFloydRoad said:
    4 wins 2 draw needed to get 50.

     
    Going to use this stat in every discussion I have with any of our lot that think we will be relegated.
    Almost certain you’ll stay up this season with room to spare. Have to recruit well in the summer though as next year could be a difficult one. There will be no Sheffield Wednesday or Leicester with their points deductions. Oxford will probably be replaced by a better team. 

    Second season can often prove difficult. Promotion momentum can drive you on in the first season back and I think you had that in abundance for the first couple of months of the season but you won’t have that in the second season. We finished 8th in our first season back up but 21st the following season. 

    Recruit well and stay up next season and with a good management team in place, and I think you’ll go on to be an established 2nd tier club again. But next season will be a massive one for Charlton. 


    See you next season then, because you know your gonna blow it😂😜
    Haha probably. 🤣
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 71,228
    MillwallFan said:
    JustFloydRoad said:
    4 wins 2 draw needed to get 50.

     
    Going to use this stat in every discussion I have with any of our lot that think we will be relegated.
    Almost certain you’ll stay up this season with room to spare. Have to recruit well in the summer though as next year could be a difficult one. There will be no Sheffield Wednesday or Leicester with their points deductions. Oxford will probably be replaced by a better team. 

    Second season can often prove difficult. Promotion momentum can drive you on in the first season back and I think you had that in abundance for the first couple of months of the season but you won’t have that in the second season. We finished 8th in our first season back up but 21st the following season. 

    Recruit well and stay up next season and with a good management team in place, I think you’ll go on to be an established 2nd tier club again. But next season will be a massive one for Charlton. 


    Yes, Plymouth went down in their second season, I have memories of Rotherham doing the same, and Oxford are likely to suffer the same fate. 

    So Wrexham and Birmingham to be relegated from the Championship next season then  ;)

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  • MillwallFan
    MillwallFan Posts: 3,504
    killerandflash said:
    MillwallFan said:
    JustFloydRoad said:
    4 wins 2 draw needed to get 50.

     
    Going to use this stat in every discussion I have with any of our lot that think we will be relegated.
    Almost certain you’ll stay up this season with room to spare. Have to recruit well in the summer though as next year could be a difficult one. There will be no Sheffield Wednesday or Leicester with their points deductions. Oxford will probably be replaced by a better team. 

    Second season can often prove difficult. Promotion momentum can drive you on in the first season back and I think you had that in abundance for the first couple of months of the season but you won’t have that in the second season. We finished 8th in our first season back up but 21st the following season. 

    Recruit well and stay up next season and with a good management team in place, I think you’ll go on to be an established 2nd tier club again. But next season will be a massive one for Charlton. 


    Yes, Plymouth went down in their second season, I have memories of Rotherham doing the same, and Oxford are likely to suffer the same fate. 

    So Wrexham and Birmingham to be relegated from the Championship next season then  ;)
    Would be nice (particularly Wrexham) but think they would come under the ‘recruit well’ category. 
  • JustFloydRoad
    JustFloydRoad Posts: 2,446
    MillwallFan said:
    JustFloydRoad said:
    4 wins 2 draw needed to get 50.

     
    Going to use this stat in every discussion I have with any of our lot that think we will be relegated.
    Almost certain you’ll stay up this season with room to spare. Have to recruit well in the summer though as next year could be a difficult one. There will be no Sheffield Wednesday or Leicester with their points deductions. 

    A point deduction won't affect Leicester, this season, they'll be there next season.
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 41,256
    Four wins, a couple of draws and nine defeats from our final 15 games will be enough to be certain of staying up. Only once in the last 32 years has a team gone down from the second tier with 53 or more points.
  • Crispywood
    Crispywood Posts: 1,327
    Aiming for the magical 50 points 3 wins and 2 draws will do it but honestly can’t see Blackburn scrapping results anytime soon 
  • SouthWest_Addicks
    SouthWest_Addicks Posts: 6,326
    edited February 11
    A very healthy 7 point gap for us. Safety is totally in our own hands and we could be out the relegation picture by the end of the month. 

    8 matches before the final international break and 7 matches afterwards. Hopefully, our good form continues and we reach the 50
    point mark by Easter and are effectively safe by the time we play the final 7 matches. 
  • balham red
    balham red Posts: 1,331
    Like at the start of the season, it feels like we can "compete" with any team right now, due to having such a solid base.

    If we keep Bell fit we will be okay, and if we keep all of our back 5 fit we will stroll it.
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,799
    Crispywood said:
    Aiming for the magical 50 points 3 wins and 2 draws will do it but honestly can’t see Blackburn scrapping results anytime soon 
    Quite pleased that they're not getting Rowett as under him i think they'd have made a good fight of it.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 65,715
    edited February 12
    Callumcafc said:
    Callumcafc said:
    52 points, another 23 more. That’s 

    8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
    7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
    6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
    5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
    4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
    3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
    2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
    1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses

    4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.
    Won 2, drawn 1, lost 2 since.

    I’m sticking with the 52 point target so:

    6 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
    5 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
    4 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
    3 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
    2 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses
    1 win, 13 draws, 2 losses
    0 wins, 16 draws, 0 losses
    Another win tonight... for a 52 point target...

    5 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses
    4 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses
    3 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
    2 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses
    1 win, 10 draws, 4 losses
    0 wins, 13 draws, 2 losses
  • PragueAddick
    PragueAddick Posts: 22,410
    Just caught up with this thread. 

    Over the weekend I asked my preferred AI model to predict number of points needed based on last 15 years. I didnt ask specifically about a figure for Charlton but asked it to note the unique Sheff Wed situation. I dont think it did much more than crunch averages but it came back with 47-49. Feels right to me especially now Leicester have put themselves bang in trouble. 52 feels a bit high. I cannot see all of Oxford, Blackburn and Leicester getting 51 now, although West Brom and Pompey will feel they can. After last night we look in a much stronger position. 
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 35,206
    50 points needed to be safe.....52 to be absolutely sure.

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