How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

KingKinsella

Looking at the last 10 Championship seasons

-you need 50 points on average for the 22nd team to displace the 21st team

-you need 48 points if you just beat 22nd place team by 1 point

So after 25 games played, we need about 21 points to make 50, so a point a game

BUT Sheffield Weds have been so poor (competitively) that we could expect most teams to get a 6 point boost to the season end total- well may be the top teams would get that anyway but that will spread to other lower teams as well.

So how many points do we need , which teams would you especially target to beat?

ForeverAddickted

52-pts I reckon, whilst keeping the Goal Difference as close to a positive or "0" as possible

I wouldn't focus on picking any teams as a target to beat as you'll only set higher expectations for yourselves, and be more disappointed, and a more miserable bugger to have to put up with on here as a result. Football has shown over the last year how unpredictable it can be - Did anyone think that we'd beat Ipswich 3-0 at Portman Road, or Wolves to draw with Man Utd or beat West Ham?

Just focus on winning the home games if we can, focus on drawing the away games if we can

We were always going to be in this relegation fight this season. Why anyone thought it would be "easy" is beyond me

Hate to say it but if we're relegated at the end of the season, then we're relegated, cant do anything about it... Nothing me or you can do to change that fact... Its a bitch and we'll lose a few players - What will be... Will be!!

Bedsaddick

46 points should be enough but aim for 50 to be sure 

fenaddick

50 odd points, the majority of them will come at home 

Athletico Charlton

I suspect it will be about 49/50 points at a guess, and by looking at points teams currently have down the bottom. 

Realistically we need 6 or 7 wins from 21 games. 

Our home from has been decent and we still have 11 home games.  With the exception of Ipswich, none of the others are teams we should be scared of. 

Away games v Wednesday, Oxford, Leicester, Albion and Swansea are all games we should certainly be targeting to pick up points from.

Ultimately if we could beat Pompey and Norwich at home and Wednesday and Oxford away (and yes, I am aware of our recent performances against 3 of them), then we give ourselves a superb opportunity.

msomerton

50pts, and draw every game from now until the end of the season.

CH4RLTON

Home games are key regardless of the opponents as we showed in the second half against Coventry

Pavoren007

50 should seal survival but with a bit of necessary bolstering to the squad hope we finish on 54-56 minimum and are not in the relegation mix on the final day. Hopefully safety sealed by the Hillsborough game mid-April, their relegation having been sealed a few games earlier (at least). We are not brimming with confidence at the moment but neither do we look a downbeat team. We are working hard and look up for every scrap. IMHO just lacking a bit of extra Champ level nous… Hope NJ given the right level of support to fix that.

Not worried at all, we are the strongest we have been in very very many seasons now. 

Crispywood

Think it’s too early to call how many points will be enough until we see what Oxford Pompey and Blackburn do in the window 

JustFloydRoad

And there is me after a conversation with my mate (who thinks we are going to get playoffs)- going to revive the How many points do we need thread (https://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/53412/0/#Form_Comment)

You must be psychic or something 

JustFloydRoad

I'll post what I was going to post in there (before the Admin starts closing down duplicate threads):

Chatting to my steward Charlton (he lives in Woolwich and claims to support Charlton now) friend and he said we are 11 points of the playoffs.

I laughed and said we are 5 points of Norwich (and that is what matters)

Usually 50 points should be enough to stay in the Championship
We are 21 points behind that figure. Could getting less help?

Does Sheffield Wednesday (and potentially Leicester) getting a points deduction change things?

se9addick

JustFloydRoad said:

I'll post what I was going to post in there (before the Admin starts closing down duplicate threads):

Chatting to my steward Charlton (he lives in Woolwich and claims to support Charlton now) friend and he said we are 11 points of the playoffs.

I laughed and said we are 5 points of Norwich (and that is what matters)

Usually 50 points should be enough to stay in the Championship
We are 21 points behind that figure. Could getting less help?

Does Sheffield Wednesday (and potentially Leicester) getting a points deduction change things?

Leicester would have to get a fairly significant deduction to end up getting relegated I think. The bigger issue is Wednesday being rubbish (rather than their points deduction per se) probably means that the teams that finish 23rd & 22nd may have higher points than normal because the should be picking up higher points than average from the team in 24th. 

All in all it’s really hard to predict exactly how many points we’ll need (as this thread proves) but if we get to 51 points with a decent GD and end up relegated we can count ourselves hard done by.  

NabySarr

If we keep up our home form then that gets us around another 19/20 points, and if we do that then we’d only need a few points from our 9 remaining away games. 

And one of those away games is Sheffield Wednesday away which should be 3 away points . Likely they will already be relegated by the time we play them and could be even worse than they are now after this window. 

The home form is key though, if we keep that up then we’d probably only need that away win against Sheff Weds to get above 50 points  

EugenesAxe

53 just to be sure, win at home draw away will be more than enough.

Side question I've been asking myself, some of the football we've played has been awful, no better than in league 1. If we're honest, what difference would it make if we ended up there again?

golfaddick

EugenesAxe said:

53 just to be sure, win at home draw away will be more than enough.

Side question I've been asking myself, some of the football we've played has been awful, no better than in league 1. If we're honest, what difference would it make if we ended up there again?

I'm sure your post in part tongue-in-cheek, but if not then the main difference is the away support. Most teams in the Championship bring a great away support & most fill the away end. Compare that to the likes of Burton, Lincoln, Barnsley etc. 

And once we fall into League 1 it could be another 5 years or MORE before we get out of it. The last 2 times is been via the play offs, so effectively a lottery. 

We have to stay up...simply have to. Still too early to say how many points needed but at thus stage somewhere around 48-52 points will be enough. 6 wins & 4 draws should do it. 

EugenesAxe

Not tongue-in-cheek, existential.

superclive98

Athletico Charlton said:

I suspect it will be about 49/50 points at a guess, and by looking at points teams currently have down the bottom. 

Realistically we need 6 or 7 wins from 21 games. 

Our home from has been decent and we still have 11 home games.  With the exception of Ipswich, none of the others are teams we should be scared of. 

Away games v Wednesday, Oxford, Leicester, Albion and Swansea are all games we should certainly be targeting to pick up points from.

Ultimately if we could beat Pompey and Norwich at home and Wednesday and Oxford away (and yes, I am aware of our recent performances against 3 of them), then we give ourselves a superb opportunity.

We have 12 home games against 9 away. You may be forgetting the still-to-be-rearranged Portsmouth game.

EugenesAxe

superclive98 said:

Athletico Charlton said:

I suspect it will be about 49/50 points at a guess, and by looking at points teams currently have down the bottom. 

Realistically we need 6 or 7 wins from 21 games. 

Our home from has been decent and we still have 11 home games.  With the exception of Ipswich, none of the others are teams we should be scared of. 

Away games v Wednesday, Oxford, Leicester, Albion and Swansea are all games we should certainly be targeting to pick up points from.

Ultimately if we could beat Pompey and Norwich at home and Wednesday and Oxford away (and yes, I am aware of our recent performances against 3 of them), then we give ourselves a superb opportunity.

We have 12 home games against 9 away. You may be forgetting the still-to-be-rearranged Portsmouth game.

is that a must win 

Athletico Charlton

se9addick said:

JustFloydRoad said:

I'll post what I was going to post in there (before the Admin starts closing down duplicate threads):

Chatting to my steward Charlton (he lives in Woolwich and claims to support Charlton now) friend and he said we are 11 points of the playoffs.

I laughed and said we are 5 points of Norwich (and that is what matters)

Usually 50 points should be enough to stay in the Championship
We are 21 points behind that figure. Could getting less help?

Does Sheffield Wednesday (and potentially Leicester) getting a points deduction change things?

Leicester would have to get a fairly significant deduction to end up getting relegated I think. The bigger issue is Wednesday being rubbish (rather than their points deduction per se) probably means that the teams that finish 23rd & 22nd may have higher points than normal because the should be picking up higher points than average from the team in 24th. 

All in all it’s really hard to predict exactly how many points we’ll need (as this thread proves) but if we get to 51 points with a decent GD and end up relegated we can count ourselves hard done by.  

9 seems to be the reported number if found guilty on all charges.  Would put them on 25.  Below us.  I don't know if their owners are still interested in investing in them but if not suspect they could lose some better players this month.  Still likely stay up but not a foregone conclusion at that point.

NabySarr

Athletico Charlton said:

se9addick said:

JustFloydRoad said:

I'll post what I was going to post in there (before the Admin starts closing down duplicate threads):

Chatting to my steward Charlton (he lives in Woolwich and claims to support Charlton now) friend and he said we are 11 points of the playoffs.

I laughed and said we are 5 points of Norwich (and that is what matters)

Usually 50 points should be enough to stay in the Championship
We are 21 points behind that figure. Could getting less help?

Does Sheffield Wednesday (and potentially Leicester) getting a points deduction change things?

Leicester would have to get a fairly significant deduction to end up getting relegated I think. The bigger issue is Wednesday being rubbish (rather than their points deduction per se) probably means that the teams that finish 23rd & 22nd may have higher points than normal because the should be picking up higher points than average from the team in 24th. 

All in all it’s really hard to predict exactly how many points we’ll need (as this thread proves) but if we get to 51 points with a decent GD and end up relegated we can count ourselves hard done by.  

9 seems to be the reported number if found guilty on all charges.  Would put them on 25.  Below us.  I don't know if their owners are still interested in investing in them but if not suspect they could lose some better players this month.  Still likely stay up but not a foregone conclusion at that point.

Leicester are a really poor team this season. Only reason they aren’t down the bottom already is they have some individuals that are better than championship level. The xG table has them 3rd bottom. Our game against them summed them up, we looked a much better team but then Fatawu put one in the top corner so they won 

They also started the season well and then their form has fallen off, last 9 games they have 10 points which is around relegation levels of performance. A 9 point deduction would put them in big trouble with a toxic fanbase and players that probably already want out 

Garrymanilow

The target is always 50 points and then whatever we can get on top of that. The frustration is not getting the win over Blackburn and at least drawing against Pompey as I don't see Norwich and Sheffield Utd staying in the mix. Swansea could improve as well, the one to watch is West Brom, it will all depend on when they finally give up on Ryan Mason. I think Oxford, Pompey and Blackburn are the ones we need to pray don't have any kind of turnaround and we should be ok. Getting 4 points off Blackburn is good, we need to ensure we get 3 off Pompey and at least 4, preferably 6 off Oxford and then force as many home wins as possible. There's always interesting stuff that can happen at the end of the season as well, we might play some teams who are safe but not bothering the play-offs while we're aggressively looking for points to stay up and get some unexpected away wins as a result 

sam3110

54 points

How do we get them? By winning games! 

JustFloydRoad

sam3110 said:

54 points

How do we get them? By winning games! 

Nathan has proven drawing a game is just as vaulable (probably not when your two goals up, but that point vs Coventry is worth soemthing)

jonseventyfive

Get over that 50 point mark and fingers crossed that should be enough,  we should give it a tag, operation fifty + three for comfort,, oh hold on maybe not operation. 

ozaddick

I fear a unprecedented points total will be needed to ensure teams don't get relegated. This season, bar swfc, seems to be so tight. Everyone is nicking points off each other. If we don't turn around this form the last few games, I reckon the dreaded R word is very possible. 

HastingsRed

Garrymanilow said:

The target is always 50 points and then whatever we can get on top of that. The frustration is not getting the win over Blackburn and at least drawing against Pompey as I don't see Norwich and Sheffield Utd staying in the mix. Swansea could improve as well, the one to watch is West Brom, it will all depend on when they finally give up on Ryan Mason. I think Oxford, Pompey and Blackburn are the ones we need to pray don't have any kind of turnaround and we should be ok. Getting 4 points off Blackburn is good, we need to ensure we get 3 off Pompey and at least 4, preferably 6 off Oxford and then force as many home wins as possible. There's always interesting stuff that can happen at the end of the season as well, we might play some teams who are safe but not bothering the play-offs while we're aggressively looking for points to stay up and get some unexpected away wins as a result 

WBA....Ryan Mason gone.

Braziliance

EugenesAxe said:

53 just to be sure, win at home draw away will be more than enough.

Side question I've been asking myself, some of the football we've played has been awful, no better than in league 1. If we're honest, what difference would it make if we ended up there again?

Dude? 

We can't be in League 1. It kills our club, drops our attendances by about 5k home fans at least, nevermind away. 

We are too big a club for League 1. That League is for your Leyton Orients, Peterboroughs, Northamptons etc. I never want to see us back there. 

The football isn't great, cause that's Nathan Jones style. Stoke and Southampton fans weren't chanting "Nathan Jones, your football is shite" repeatedly for a laugh, they genuinely mean it. 

As long as it keeps us as a Championship side though, I am happy. Results over performances, we need the Championship.

Braziliance

Interesting that people are eyeing up certain fixtures over others.. almost like they're.. nevermind..

Pretty simple. Portsmouth (h), Norwich (h), Oxford (a), Sheff Wed (a), West Brom (a), Swansea (a), those are the favourable fixtures left, Jones should be targeting them all as cup finals. There's your 6 wins to guarantee survival. 

Would rather it not come down to Swansea and we pick up the points a few fixtures before then though. 

Braziliance

I am seeing a lot of people on social media mention home games, but our home games are very hard, and our home performances in the last 5 haven't been too comfortable. Oxford we were the better team, but they were shocking, Coventry we could have got a win, solid second half, West Brom was fortunate. Saints and Boro made it look easy.

The teams yet to visit the Valley: Derby, Blades, Hull, Preston, QPR, Stoke, Wrexham, Birmingham, Norwich, Bristol City, Ipswich and Pompey. 

The standouts are of course Pompey and Norwich, massive games. 

The games I am viewing as the tough ones are Ipswich and Wrexham (bogey side) 

Everyone else looks fair game. My only concern is, we don't seem to be improving playstyle wise and results, whereas most of those teams listed have. 

Oggy Red

In the immortal words of our very own Henry Irving .....

"Just win games!" 

Oggy Red

Q: How many points do we need?

A: One point more than the team that finishes 22nd