How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?
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I don’t think it’s a given Rowett gets them out of the slump, other sides are going for them, it’s not that easy to turn form around.kinveachyaddick said:I think Crispywood is right (and so is Golfie to be fair) when he says that Leics have plenty of attacking quality so assuming Rowett sorts the defence out (which you would expect a manager of his calibre to do) then they have enough games left to get out of the bottom three.0 -
From all I have read the atmosphere among the fans at Leicester, West Brom and Blackburn is toxic, whereas it is not with us, or at Pompey. Pompey and ourselves as fanbases are less entitled than certainly Leicester or West Brom. I am sure that helps, if the management know what they are doing.5
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Watching the NTT20 review of the weekend, they don't consider us one of the likely relegation contenders.
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Nor should we be, not been in the bottom 3 all season.killerandflash said:Watching the NTT20 review of the weekend, they don't consider us one of the likely relegation contenders.1 -
Excellent stuff mate.stonemuse said:Prediction from my most used AI model:Right now, the “bottom ten” (15th–24th) looks like this on points: QPR 47, Swansea 46, Norwich 45, Charlton 41, Portsmouth 39 (with a game in hand), Blackburn 38, West Brom 35, Leicester 34 (with a 6-point deduction), Oxford 32, Sheffield Wednesday −7 (after deductions).
That tells you two important things before we even get into fixtures and injuries. First, the real relegation fight is concentrated around West Brom / Leicester / Oxford for the last two “survival” places (21st is safety; 22nd–24th go down). Second, Sheffield Wednesday are so far adrift on points and goal difference that they’re effectively in “miracle required” territory.
The run-in that matters (what to watch in the next few weeks)
Because the table is tight in places, the most influential matches are the six-pointers—games where one relegation candidate directly denies another a point swing. A few of those are already visible in the near-term fixture lists:
Oxford have a particularly defining mini-run with Blackburn (11 March) and Charlton (14 March), both at the Kassam, which is exactly the kind of sequence that can flip a relegation narrative in ten days.
Leicester’s next two big pressure fixtures are Bristol City (10 March) and QPR (14 March) at home; those are “must convert” games if they want to play their way clear of the deduction drag.
Blackburn meet Portsmouth (7 March), then go straight into Oxford (11 March)—two matches against teams directly around them where a couple of poor results would turn a wobble into freefall.
West Brom’s immediate test is brutal: Southampton (11 March) and Hull (14 March), both sides with top-half ambitions, when West Brom’s recent form already looks fragile.
Form, “between the teams” results, and whether it’s likely to improve or relapse
Using the Guardian’s last-five form lines as a quick sanity check, and cross-referencing the table (goal difference, goals for/against), here’s how I read the bottom ten’s trajectory.
QPR (currently 15th, 47 pts) feel like the classic “not safe, but hard to drag in” side. They’ve had volatility—hammered 5–0 by Southampton but also won away, like the 3–1 at Hull—which normally suggests they’ll pick up enough points in bursts to stay above the real scrap. Their next visible pressure point is Leicester away (14 March): for QPR it’s a chance to put daylight between themselves and the trapdoor; for Leicester it’s a survival match in all but name.
Swansea (16th, 46 pts) look mid-table on paper but are close enough to get sucked in if the away results go. A 3–0 loss at Ipswich is exactly the sort of performance that makes you worry about “relapse” against the division’s better sides, and they’ve got awkward ones coming up like Portsmouth away (10 March) and Wrexham away (13 March). The upside is that they’re not haemorrhaging goals overall (goal difference is manageable), which usually keeps you afloat in the Championship even when you’re patchy.
Norwich (17th, 45 pts) are the one side in this cluster that looks like they’re pulling away on momentum. They’ve beaten direct rivals—2–0 at Leicester and 2–0 vs Sheffield Wednesday—which is exactly how teams climb out of trouble without needing a full tactical revolution. On availability, the public injury trackers aren’t perfect, but Norwich do have at least a couple of names flagged as out (for example, Springett and Forsyth on one commonly-used list), which matters because teams on the edge can’t afford to lose depth in the run-in.
Charlton (18th, 41 pts) are sitting in that uneasy “too good to be down, too close to be comfortable” band. The draws away at West Brom and against Southampton are useful points, but the inability to turn matches into wins is what keeps clubs hovering near the line. Their looming trip to Oxford (14 March) has the feel of a match that will either settle Charlton’s nerves or pull them right back into it.
Portsmouth (19th, 39 pts, game in hand) are the most “swingy” of the lot because the game in hand can disguise how fine the margins are. They’ve shown they can hit a ceiling (they beat Millwall 3–1 away) but then immediately drop points in games they’d want back. The next visible block—Blackburn away (7 March) then Swansea at home (10 March)—is the definition of “two matches that decide your month”.
Blackburn (20th, 38 pts) look like the side most at risk of sliding if they don’t stabilise defensively; the goal difference and recent results suggest they’re losing too many tight games. Their head-to-head sequence with Portsmouth (7 March) and Oxford (11 March) is critical because it’s not just about points gained; it’s about points denied to immediate rivals.
West Brom (21st, 35 pts) are the club I’d circle in red for “most likely to drop into the relegation places and stay there” unless something changes fast. The Guardian form line shows a run of draws and losses, and the defensive numbers are poor relative to the teams just above. When you combine that with an immediate schedule including Southampton and Hull, you’re staring at a scenario where “decent performances” still produce only one or two points, which is how you get overtaken.
Leicester (22nd, 34 pts, 6-point deduction) are fascinating because, on pure goals scored, they don’t look like a typical relegation team. The problem is that deductions compress your margin for error: a draw that “feels fine” becomes a missed opportunity. The near-term slate—Bristol City then QPR—gives them a genuine route to momentum if they can turn home matches into wins, and I’m leaning towards them improving simply because they have more goal threat than the teams around them.
Oxford (23rd, 32 pts) look like the classic hard-working side with one structural issue: they don’t score enough. Beating West Brom 2–1 is exactly the kind of result that keeps hope alive, but then you look at the next two: Blackburn and Charlton, and it becomes obvious that “hope” needs to turn into a run—fast. If they don’t take four to six points from those two matches, their probability of survival drops sharply.
Sheffield Wednesday (24th, −7 pts, huge negative goal difference) are in a different category entirely. When you’re shipping goals at that rate and you’ve got deductions on top, you need more than a new-manager bounce; you need a complete statistical reversal. The upcoming fixtures we can see—Watford and Ipswich—don’t scream “easy points”, and the derby loss to Sheffield United plus a 2–0 loss at Norwich fits the pattern of a side that can compete for spells but can’t change outcomes.
My predicted final bottom ten (15th to 24th) and why
I’m projecting the bottom ten to finish, from 15th down, as QPR, Swansea, Norwich, Charlton, Portsmouth, Blackburn, Leicester, West Brom, Oxford, Sheffield Wednesday.
The reasoning is simple but harsh. QPR, Swansea and Norwich have already banked enough points that they can survive a wobble, and Norwich look the likeliest to improve because they’re picking up results against direct rivals. Charlton and Portsmouth feel like they’ll flirt with danger but do just enough; Portsmouth’s extra match is a small cushion even if it’s not a guarantee. Blackburn are the “could finish anywhere between 17th and 22nd” side, but their next cluster of six-pointer fixtures is unforgiving. Leicester, even with the deduction, have the best attacking numbers of the relegation candidates, and if they turn home fixtures into wins they can climb. West Brom and Oxford, by contrast, have the profile of teams that will struggle to generate the wins needed at the sharp end of the season, and Wednesday look gone
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Just had a look at Millwall's fixtures and they will have a say in who goes down. They are home to Oxford on the last day, we MUST not go into the last day needed any favours.1
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I think we'll be safe before then.robroy said:Just had a look at Millwall's fixtures and they will have a say in who goes down. They are home to Oxford on the last day, we MUST not go into the last day needed any favours.
We'll pick up 6 or 7 points before we go to Sheff Wed & our win there will keep us up.
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"Millwall have nothing to play for, confirmed in 6th place already, whereas Oxford need a win by a massive margin to stand a chance of overhauling Charlton.robroy said:Just had a look at Millwall's fixtures and they will have a say in who goes down. They are home to Oxford on the last day, we MUST not go into the last day needed any favours.
Alex Neil has taken the opportunity to rest a few players today, so there are debuts in defence for Danny Baker and Gregg Wallace, while Femi Azeez gets a rare outing in goal."10 -
Will Gregg Wallace be wearing any shorts, or playing with his tackle out?killerandflash said:
"Millwall have nothing to play for, confirmed in 6th place already, whereas Oxford need a win by a massive margin to stand a chance of overhauling Charlton.robroy said:Just had a look at Millwall's fixtures and they will have a say in who goes down. They are home to Oxford on the last day, we MUST not go into the last day needed any favours.
Alex Neil has taken the opportunity to rest a few players today, so there are debuts in defence for Danny Baker and Gregg Wallace, while Femi Azeez gets a rare outing in goal."2 -
Posted this on the Leicester thread but it's worth nothing here as well?
The financial expert on TalkSport today was saying that Leicester's appeal will probably end up in a barter between the 6 points being upheld or possibly nullified in favour of a 9 million fine.
He said that Leicester would try and delay the final decision by legal delays till nearer the end of the season to see how they stand in the league, then if necessary try to opt for the fine rather than the 6 points.
He reckoned the Prem appeal is only over their jurisdiction issue last year and is not likely to be heard.
We can all see how this might end up!?1 -
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"The referee blows his whistle, as there are two balls on the pitch."CaptainRobbo said:
Will Gregg Wallace be wearing any shorts, or playing with his tackle out?killerandflash said:
"Millwall have nothing to play for, confirmed in 6th place already, whereas Oxford need a win by a massive margin to stand a chance of overhauling Charlton.robroy said:Just had a look at Millwall's fixtures and they will have a say in who goes down. They are home to Oxford on the last day, we MUST not go into the last day needed any favours.
Alex Neil has taken the opportunity to rest a few players today, so there are debuts in defence for Danny Baker and Gregg Wallace, while Femi Azeez gets a rare outing in goal."0 -
How does paying your way out of financial irregularities work as a deterant ?CharltonManor1966 said:Posted this on the Leicester thread but it's worth nothing here as well?
The financial expert on TalkSport today was saying that Leicester's appeal will probably end up in a barter between the 6 points being upheld or possibly nullified in favour of a 9 million fine.
He said that Leicester would try and delay the final decision by legal delays till nearer the end of the season to see how they stand in the league, then if necessary try to opt for the fine rather than the 6 points.
He reckoned the Prem appeal is only over their jurisdiction issue last year and is not likely to be heard.
We can all see how this might end up!?0 -
Nah, that wont happen. The financial expert was talking out of his arse.CharltonManor1966 said:Posted this on the Leicester thread but it's worth nothing here as well?
The financial expert on TalkSport today was saying that Leicester's appeal will probably end up in a barter between the 6 points being upheld or possibly nullified in favour of a 9 million fine.
He said that Leicester would try and delay the final decision by legal delays till nearer the end of the season to see how they stand in the league, then if necessary try to opt for the fine rather than the 6 points.
He reckoned the Prem appeal is only over their jurisdiction issue last year and is not likely to be heard.
We can all see how this might end up!?
And before you ask.. ..no, it wasn't me 😀2 -
brum h - 1boro a - 0
oxford a - 1
norwich h - 3
bristol h - 1
watford a - 0 (don't know if you have been Watford Away before)
preston h - 3
sheff weds a - 3
hull h - 3
swansea a - 0robroy said:Another £20 from me to the Upbeats if we hit 55Think we all should make this pledge (as a community).0 -
With 11 matches to go think 50 points would probably be enough to stay up without worrying for goal difference.
I still think we need a minimum of two more wins from final eleven matches. Frustrating because if we had beat either Pompey, West Brom or Wrexham we wouldn’t be in the discussion anymore.IMO we must win at least one of the next four matches before the international break.2
