How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

mogodon

BalladMan said:

se9addick said:

PeaksAndValleys said:

PeaksAndValleys said:

paulsturgess said:

Callumcafc said:

Would bring my target down if Oxford hadn’t just won a couple in a row bringing themselves back into the picture.

Until then, I’m sticking on 52 as the number to guarantee no issues. At that point, multiple teams below us would need playoff chasing form to get above that mark.

8 points from 10 needed:

3 wins, 7 defeats
2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats
1 win, 5 draws, 4 defeats
8 draws, 2 defeats

Another way of looking at it is that at least 2 teams below us (of Leicester Oxford West Brom) would need to both average 1 point per game more than us for the remainder of the season which would’ve a monumental turnaround for teams that are struggling to average 1 point per game in total in recent months, let alone 1 point more per game than we average

add to that Blackburn being slightly closer but having a very very tough run in

we would now have to be spectacularly dreadful to mess this up 

This.

I do get that it's an integral part of being a Charlton fan to fear the worst, and clearly it's not over until it's over, but equally I think people are being very pessimistic / just not being realistic about where we are now. Nine points clear with ten games to go, with multiple teams under us all of which are down there for a reason. We almost have to lose every game going forward to get relegated at this point

PPG continues to track at one a game ie 47 needed to avoid the drop. If that holds up then three draws get us there, but people are talking about 'two or three wins and a few draws' needed

I think people are just accustomed to bad things happening which is understandable after the fortunes of the club over the past couple of decades. 

But anyone objective looking at the Championship table would conclude that Charlton are safe. 

Most football ‘analyst’ don’t even have us in the mix for relegation. Now you gonna believe us. The Reds are staying up. 

Most pundits had us odds on to go straight down, so I wouldn't put too much faith in their assessments

Callumcafc

Win all ten remaining games and we could have a go at top six…

superclive98

mogodon said:

PeaksAndValleys said:

PeaksAndValleys said:

paulsturgess said:

Callumcafc said:

Would bring my target down if Oxford hadn’t just won a couple in a row bringing themselves back into the picture.

Until then, I’m sticking on 52 as the number to guarantee no issues. At that point, multiple teams below us would need playoff chasing form to get above that mark.

8 points from 10 needed:

3 wins, 7 defeats
2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats
1 win, 5 draws, 4 defeats
8 draws, 2 defeats

Another way of looking at it is that at least 2 teams below us (of Leicester Oxford West Brom) would need to both average 1 point per game more than us for the remainder of the season which would’ve a monumental turnaround for teams that are struggling to average 1 point per game in total in recent months, let alone 1 point more per game than we average

add to that Blackburn being slightly closer but having a very very tough run in

we would now have to be spectacularly dreadful to mess this up 

This.

I do get that it's an integral part of being a Charlton fan to fear the worst, and clearly it's not over until it's over, but equally I think people are being very pessimistic / just not being realistic about where we are now. Nine points clear with ten games to go, with multiple teams under us all of which are down there for a reason. We almost have to lose every game going forward to get relegated at this point

PPG continues to track at one a game ie 47 needed to avoid the drop. If that holds up then three draws get us there, but people are talking about 'two or three wins and a few draws' needed

Sheffield Wednesday getting so few points skews the points needed to stay up. It will be on the high end so suspect we will need 51-52 to be safe

For us to need 52 points rhen two of Oxford, Leicester and West Brom would have to reach at least 51 points. That would require them to achieve 16 points in 10 games for Oxford and Leicester and 15 for West Brom.
In their last 10 games Leicester have got 4 points , West Brom 5 and Oxford 12 (figure being buoyed by wins in their last 2).

ShootersHillGuru

When we’re mathematically safe I’ll be happy. Until that points total is achieved I’m still worried. No amount of other teams need to do this or we need to fail to do that will change that for me. 

TheHerminator

ShootersHillGuru said:

When we’re mathematically safe I’ll be happy. Until that points total is achieved I’m still worried. No amount of other teams need to do this or we need to fail to do that will change that for me. 

This is exactly how I feel. 

There are still two teams below us who really shouldn't be with the players they have, and my fear is they'll kick in to gear at some point, despite showing no real signs of doing so. 

Until it's impossible for us to go down, I still worry that it might happen 

Belv

I still think 50 is the magic number.

To get there Leicester and Oxford need to win 50% of their remaining games. 

Chris_from_Sidcup

TheHerminator said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

When we’re mathematically safe I’ll be happy. Until that points total is achieved I’m still worried. No amount of other teams need to do this or we need to fail to do that will change that for me. 

This is exactly how I feel. 

There are still two teams below us who really shouldn't be with the players they have, and my fear is they'll kick in to gear at some point, despite showing no real signs of doing so. 

Until it's impossible for us to go down, I still worry that it might happen 

I feel calm right now as our points total keeps ticking along and the gap to the bottom 3 is decent. But it's a brutal league and any team down there is very capable of suddenly going 5-6 without a win and being right back in trouble.

It would be great to just get the points in the bag early so we can then play the last 3-4 games without any stress, but this is Charlton.

Crispywood

Obviously would want to be safe as the main priority but nice to have something to talk about with a relegation battle. I’d love to have stability in midtable for the next few years but at least we’ve got some sort of nerves/excitement this season 

North Lower Neil

Crispywood said:

Obviously would want to be safe as the main priority but nice to have something to talk about with a relegation battle. I’d love to have stability in midtable for the next few years but at least we’ve got some sort of nerves/excitement this season 

Championship is so tight most years though that the midtable teams usually have a chance at the playoffs until at least 2 or 3 games from the end of the season.

At the moment there's a bunch of teams down to 14th on 49 points, only 8 outside the playoffs with 30 points to play for.

Next year even more so - at the moment QPR are 16th but only 6 points off 8th.

Chippycafc

I think we need 53 points. Anyone who thinks oxford are down is kidding themselves. They could be 3 points behind us come Saturday afternoon.

Not sure of the other fixtures to come for others, but would imagine there must be some 6 pointers in there somewhere.

Chippycafc

Sword65pf said:

Folks saying Leicester have the team to pull away, they had better get on with it, because they aren’t doing it at the moment, obviously I’m very happy about that, but not really getting why others are so sure they can escape from trouble so easily. 

Their last 2 away games are also at Portsmouth and Blackburn on the last day. Plus they have Hull and Millwall at home in the middle of that. But before that they have a decent run of teams mid table.

Crispywood

Chippycafc said:

I think we need 53 points. Anyone who thinks oxford are down is kidding themselves. They could be 3 points behind us come Saturday afternoon.

Not sure of the other fixtures to come for others, but would imagine there must be some 6 pointers in there somewhere.

For 53 points to be needed 2/3 of Oxford Leicester and West Brom would need to hit playoff form, and then Blackburn would need to hit top half form, and even Pompey would need to still tick over. Even if somehow that all happens we still would be safe with 3 wins from 10 or 2 from 9 realistically with Sheffield Wednesday still to play. 

You’re mixing possibility with probability yes there’s a chance but there’s a reason there’s no other fanbase outside our own who are currently tipping us to go down 

ForeverAddickted

ForeverAddickted said:

Boro - 3
Oxford - 3
Norwich - 3 
Bristol C - 3 
Watford - 3
Preston - 3
Sheffield Wed - 3
Ipswich - 3
Hull - 3
Swansea - 3 

Charlton storm into second place on the final day, pipping Millwall on Goal Difference

BigRedEvil

We're not going down. We'd have to pick up zero points in the next 9 games and that just doesn't look like happening 

Crispywood

Think it’s time for this thread to close championship 26/27 next season 😍

fenaddick

Forget relegation for a second, is top half in our reach?

ForeverAddickted

Given how Ipswich and Hull are probably our most daunting fixtures now, you have to think we can aim to finish between 12th and 14th - Three of those sides have to still come to the Valley now, and Bristol City / Preston seem to be sleep walking to the end of the season a bit.

Crispywood

fenaddick said:

Forget relegation for a second, is top half in our reach?

Swansea Bristol City Preston and Stoke aren’t exactly smashing it no reason we can’t go and try and catch them 

Bedsaddick

ForeverAddickted said:

Given how Ipswich and Hull are probably our most daunting fixtures now, you have to think we can aim to finish between 12th and 14th - Three of those sides have to still come to the Valley now, and Bristol City / Preston seem to be sleep walking to the end of the season a bit.

If only football was that predictable 

ShootersHillGuru

Crispywood said:

fenaddick said:

Forget relegation for a second, is top half in our reach?

Swansea Bristol City Preston and Stoke aren’t exactly smashing it no reason we can’t go and try and catch them 

Football is often about momentum. Hard to get it back once it’s gone. The teams just ahead of us are effectively safe from relegation and have an extremely slim chance of getting into the top six. If not on the beach they are certainly packing their cases. On the other hand we do seem to have built up some momentum and the players look like they are enjoying it. We could find ourselves in a loftier position than any of us thought.

killerandflash

Yes, rather than 19/20, this season could finish more like 12/13, where we had a really strong finish to the season in our first season back in the Championship 

golfaddick

Posted on the Championship thread that I reckon we need 50 points.....52 to be absolutely safe. Easter will be a happy time in the Charlton household  

CaptainRobbo

golfaddick said:

Posted on the Championship thread that I reckon we need 50 points.....52 to be absolutely safe. Easter will be a happy time in the Charlton household  

Callumcafc

2 wins, 0 draws, 7 defeats
1 win, 2 draws, 6 defeats
0 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats

Chippycafc

ShootersHillGuru said:

When we’re mathematically safe I’ll be happy. Until that points total is achieved I’m still worried. No amount of other teams need to do this or we need to fail to do that will change that for me. 

Ditto mate....things can change. My Oxford supporting mate the other day, said they have no chance of getting 30 points when they had 28 on the board, and they cant score goals. They have 6 in the last 3 games. 

charente addick

Looking at games left I can see Leicester and Portsmouth pulling away from trouble. I think it’s 2 from West Brom, Oxford and Blackburn.

Elthamaddick

I think we’re basically there now and won’t be surprised if we now see more points than any of us anticipated come the end of the season and we finish quite comfortably 

Steven81

Chippycafc said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

When we’re mathematically safe I’ll be happy. Until that points total is achieved I’m still worried. No amount of other teams need to do this or we need to fail to do that will change that for me. 

Ditto mate....things can change. My Oxford supporting mate the other day, said they have no chance of getting 30 points when they had 28 on the board, and they cant score goals. They have 6 in the last 3 games. 

They have 9 mate.

Chris_from_Sidcup

Steven81 said:

Chippycafc said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

When we’re mathematically safe I’ll be happy. Until that points total is achieved I’m still worried. No amount of other teams need to do this or we need to fail to do that will change that for me. 

Ditto mate....things can change. My Oxford supporting mate the other day, said they have no chance of getting 30 points when they had 28 on the board, and they cant score goals. They have 6 in the last 3 games. 

They have 9 mate.

He meant 6 goals.

Chris_from_Sidcup

charente addick said:

Looking at games left I can see Leicester and Portsmouth pulling away from trouble. I think it’s 2 from West Brom, Oxford and Blackburn.

West Brom without a win this year are surely not going to suddenly win 4 of their last 9 games. They look doomed.

Blackburn have a fairly tough run in, play a lot of the promotion/play off chasing sides although they do have both West brom and Leicester at home which are absolute must wins for them.

Oxford have some momentum so right now you'd fancy them to stay up over the other two. Obviously as we know everything can change very quickly though.