How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

Blackheathboy

RonnieMoore said:

Officially 52 is the safe figure ….thats the match when T Campbell scores a hat trick 

Chris_from_Sidcup

ShootersHillGuru said:

I asked the all knowing all seeing ChatGPT to give us its predictions 

Did they forget that West Brom exist?

Also Watford have 52 points with 10 games left. For them to finish 21st would be some going.

2121

After winning tomorrow, does this thread change to … how do we sneak in the play off 6th place? 

Steven81

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Steven81 said:

Chippycafc said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

When we’re mathematically safe I’ll be happy. Until that points total is achieved I’m still worried. No amount of other teams need to do this or we need to fail to do that will change that for me. 

Ditto mate....things can change. My Oxford supporting mate the other day, said they have no chance of getting 30 points when they had 28 on the board, and they cant score goals. They have 6 in the last 3 games. 

They have 9 mate.

He meant 6 goals.

Oh apologies I proper misread that.

golfaddick

ShootersHillGuru said:

I asked the all knowing all seeing ChatGPT to give us its predictions 

I wasn't aware that ChatGPT was Luton fan 😃

BigRedEvil

I think it's good for the league that all 3 promoted sides are all going to stay up this season.

balham red

BigRedEvil said:

I think it's good for the league that all 3 promoted sides are all going to stay up this season.

How so?

BigRedEvil

balham red said:

BigRedEvil said:

I think it's good for the league that all 3 promoted sides are all going to stay up this season.

How so?

Better than going straight back down again. Plus gives the teams coming up some hope they can actually compete. And having the same teams yoyo between leagues isn't great 

balham red

BigRedEvil said:

balham red said:

BigRedEvil said:

I think it's good for the league that all 3 promoted sides are all going to stay up this season.

How so?

Better than going straight back down again. Plus gives the teams coming up some hope they can actually compete. And having the same teams yoyo between leagues isn't great 

It's just that Birmingham and Wrexham are not your normal league one clubs coming up, with the money they've spent.

Can't see it happening like this again to be honest.

CharltonManor1966

I reckon we will get to around 55 points? Only worry is that once we are all but safe on 50 we then relax and NJ starts giving LJ a well earned rest and puts some development players in, we will slacken off and not keep gaining. But who cares? Survival alone is everything.

letthegoodtimesroll

CharltonManor1966 said:

I reckon we will get to around 55 points? Only worry is that once we are all but safe on 50 we then relax and NJ starts giving LJ a well earned rest and puts some development players in, we will slacken off and not keep gaining. But who cares? Survival alone is everything.

The stronger we finish the more money Nathan will have for next season’s campaign and the easier it will be for him to attract players. Gough and Fullah will get more minutes because they’ve already broken into the team and given good accounts of themselves. This side of the pre-season games and the league cup it’s hard to see anyone else getting a looking in just yet.

soapboxsam

ShootersHillGuru said:

I asked the all knowing all seeing ChatGPT to give us its predictions 

Elton John thinks that ChatGPT is a Luton fan or maybe a WBA fan as they don't finish in the bottom 10 !

killerandflash

Still a 9 point gap to Oxford, making it virtually impossible that they can overtake us.

golfaddick

Keep changing my mind on this. I'm now thinking 54 should definitely keep us up. 52 should do it, but the way some teams are now picking up points regularly it's hard to say. 

Bedsaddick

killerandflash said:

Still a 9 point gap to Oxford, making it virtually impossible that they can overtake us.

It’s definitely possible. Unlikely but possible 

JamesU2002

Opta is predicting 50 points is the minimum required to be safe. 

KingKinsella

balham red said:

BigRedEvil said:

balham red said:

BigRedEvil said:

I think it's good for the league that all 3 promoted sides are all going to stay up this season.

How so?

Better than going straight back down again. Plus gives the teams coming up some hope they can actually compete. And having the same teams yoyo between leagues isn't great 

It's just that Birmingham and Wrexham are not your normal league one clubs coming up, with the money they've spent.

Can't see it happening like this again to be honest.

Can't see 2 teams getting points deductions  in the same season again. We are fortunate this season our footballs dire- L1 standard. Wait till we play Lincoln next year they'll hammer us.

MuttleyCAFC

I expect 60 having done a calculator. If I am right, 49 points is enough and Leicester, Pompey and Blackburn will fight to not get sucked into that final place. Oxford had to win today and I think that has cost them. 

Addick Addict

I predicted 53 points a month or so ago and not a lot has changed bar the very important aspect of us picking up seven vital points in our last three games. If we beat Sheffield Wednesday then that will be that because we'd only need two more points from the other seven matches. 

Ignoring Wednesday's games, as they are down, there aren't that many games involving the teams between them and us:  

Blackburn v WBA
Blackburn v Leicester
Portsmouth v Oxford
Portsmouth v Leicester

Perhaps the team that should really be worried is Preston. Yes they are a point above us but, in their last 12 games, they've had one win, taken six points and scored just six goals. In fact, following an excellent start to the season, they've won five games from their last 25 games in all competitions and look at the teams they've beaten in that time - Wednesday (twice), Oxford, Bristol City and Portsmouth. 

These are their remaining fixtures:

Stoke (H)
Leicester (A)
QPR (H)
Charlton (A)
WBA (H)
Birmingham (A)
Sheffield United (A)
Southampton (H)

If we were on that run then I'm not so sure we'd be as confident about staying up as we are right now. 

CaptainRobbo

JamesU2002 said:

Opta is predicting 50 points is the minimum required to be safe. 

Ronnie Moore said it was 52 "FACT"
I know who I am more inclined to trust with figures. 🤔

DamoNorthStand

I think 52 points is what we should be aiming for.

I would expect us to be winning one of our remaining home games at least, and then you are looking for one draw from the remaining 7 games.

We are either gonna hit the beach once we get to 50 points or relax and play with freedom and no pressure. 

Gonna predict we end on 55 points.

superclive98

One thing that people seem to be forgetting is that we are the only side down there with an imbalance of home games to away games, 5 to 3. Everybody else has 4H4A or 5H5A for Pompey.
Another thing to factor in is the fact that Blackburn and Pompey have already played Sheff Wed twice. No guarantee of 3 points but in this league as close as you are going to get to one.

CaptainRobbo

superclive98 said:

One thing that people seem to be forgetting is that we are the only side down there with an imbalance of home games to away games, 5 to 3. Everybody else has 4H4A or 5H5A for Pompey.
Another thing to factor in is the fact that Blackburn and Pompey have already played Sheff Wed twice. No guarantee of 3 points but in this league as close as you are going to get to one.

There is when Blackburn play Millwall.

Callumcafc

2 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses
1 win, 1 draw, 6 losses
0 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses

peterreeves

Nathan seems to think 50 points but I'll take 52 please. 

MarcusH26

Would love to be safe going to Sheffield Wednesday. Watford,Preston and Bristol City all seem on the beach or out of form so should be targets for points.

Anything we get from Norwich next Saturday is a bonus.

killerandflash

superclive98 said:

One thing that people seem to be forgetting is that we are the only side down there with an imbalance of home games to away games, 5 to 3. Everybody else has 4H4A or 5H5A for Pompey.

It's interesting that in 2026, we've lost 3 games at home (Derby, Pompey, Wrexham), and only 1 away (Millwall).

Being unbeaten in 5 away games since Millwall is what's pushed us away from danger. In those 5 away games we've only conceded 3 goals, and that includes excellent sides like Soton and Boro. Unless we lose key players to injury, I don't think we need to fear any opponents away from home now.

superclive98

killerandflash said:

superclive98 said:

One thing that people seem to be forgetting is that we are the only side down there with an imbalance of home games to away games, 5 to 3. Everybody else has 4H4A or 5H5A for Pompey.

It's interesting that in 2026, we've lost 3 games at home (Derby, Pompey, Wrexham), and only 1 away (Millwall).

Being unbeaten in 5 away games since Millwall is what's pushed us away from danger. In those 5 away games we've only conceded 3 goals, and that includes excellent sides like Soton and Boro. Unless we lose key players to injury, I don't think we need to fear any opponents away from home now.

Very true.

shine166

balham red said:

BigRedEvil said:

balham red said:

BigRedEvil said:

I think it's good for the league that all 3 promoted sides are all going to stay up this season.

How so?

Better than going straight back down again. Plus gives the teams coming up some hope they can actually compete. And having the same teams yoyo between leagues isn't great 

It's just that Birmingham and Wrexham are not your normal league one clubs coming up, with the money they've spent.

Can't see it happening like this again to be honest.

Good for us next year  

Crispywood

Got an incredibly average Bristol City to visit, a Preston in free-fall, a Sheffield Wednesday who are respectfully poor, and 5/8 home games. Even if we aren’t currently safe which 48 may even be enough we definitely will be come the end of the season