How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

ShootersHillGuru

Hardly insightful but we’ll know pretty much our fate by the time we play Preston on 11th April. I suspect just three points from our next three will be enough. 

letthegoodtimesroll

letthegoodtimesroll

letthegoodtimesroll

letthegoodtimesroll

superclive98

lolwray said:

I think one side will go down with 51/52 points ... 

For that to happen at least  4 of Leicester, Oxford, West Brom, Portsmouth and Blackburn would need to get to 51/52 points.
That would require them to get a minimum of between 9 and 12 points just to reach 51.
I can see one or two of them reaching that points total but not four.

J BLOCK

ForeverAddickted said:

J BLOCK said:

ForeverAddickted said:

Interesting that despite some strong starts from the likes of Preston, Stoke and QPR that they've fallen back and are kind of part of the mini-League that I always expected them to be involved in with us.
Is probably Hull and Derby from last season that have managed to stay where they are. 

The league is very even this year, outside of the top 4, the rest all the way down to us are very similar in ability. 

This is just how Football in England is in general outside of the Premier League for me

Money can be a factor, but having the best budget etc. seems a lot less important in the EFL and below - Its so much more unpredictable for some reason, maybe the youth loan market plays a heavy part, and is in part down to clubs getting lucky in getting the next Conor Gallagher / Brennan Johnson type loan

I'd say the Premier league is this season too. No run away leaders, most teams beating each other. The same for Champ and League one. Interesting season of football. 

Chris_from_Sidcup

J BLOCK said:

ForeverAddickted said:

J BLOCK said:

ForeverAddickted said:

Interesting that despite some strong starts from the likes of Preston, Stoke and QPR that they've fallen back and are kind of part of the mini-League that I always expected them to be involved in with us.
Is probably Hull and Derby from last season that have managed to stay where they are. 

The league is very even this year, outside of the top 4, the rest all the way down to us are very similar in ability. 

This is just how Football in England is in general outside of the Premier League for me

Money can be a factor, but having the best budget etc. seems a lot less important in the EFL and below - Its so much more unpredictable for some reason, maybe the youth loan market plays a heavy part, and is in part down to clubs getting lucky in getting the next Conor Gallagher / Brennan Johnson type loan

I'd say the Premier league is this season too. No run away leaders, most teams beating each other. The same for Champ and League one. Interesting season of football. 

Arsenal have been top since October and are 9 points clear. 
Coventry top since October.
Lincoln and Cardiff have been top 2 in league one for months and are both running away with promotion.

There are some interesting battles across the divisions, but not really regarding the leaders.

MuttleyCAFC

I think there is another factor here and Jones has alluded to it. We don't want to stay up by the skin of our teeth, we want to progress and set ourselves up for next season positively. There is an opportunity for us to finish around mid table and that would be progression. That surely has to be the target. I would say 10th to 12th is feasible if we end the season well.

Redhenry

After seeing Oxford on Sat, they go down for me

killerandflash

J BLOCK said:

ForeverAddickted said:

Interesting that despite some strong starts from the likes of Preston, Stoke and QPR that they've fallen back and are kind of part of the mini-League that I always expected them to be involved in with us.
Is probably Hull and Derby from last season that have managed to stay where they are. 

The league is very even this year, outside of the top 4, the rest all the way down to us are very similar in ability. 

Even the top 4 aren't as good as in previous years. Last season the top 2 teams finished with 100 points, with Sheffield United on 90. Coventry this season are on for 93.

For various reasons, the teams that came down have underperformed. Ipswich are rich and stable, but haven't been as good as you'd expect, Southampton had a terrible start under the wrong manager while Leicester are a mess. That's really opened the promotion places up to the non parachute payment teams like Coventry, Boro, Millwall, Hull etc

Chris_from_Sidcup

Redhenry said:

After seeing Oxford on Sat, they go down for me

I think it changes all the time though.

Millwall fans (and a lot of Charlton) said the same about us going down after the 4-0.
Oxford looked dead and buried then picked up 10 points from 12.
Portsmouth looked like pulling clear after winning away at us and Millwall in 4 days, then haven't won since.
People thought Leicester would pull away after winning in midweek then taking the lead v QPR. Half an hour later they were 3-1 down and bang in trouble.
Blackburn and West Brom both looked fairly doomed, then go and beat teams in the play off spots.

All we can really be certain of at this point, is that it's any 2 from Pompey, Blackburn, West brom, Oxford and Leicester. The gap is too big now for anyone else to get sucked in.

gringo

MuttleyCAFC said:

I think there is another factor here and Jones has alluded to it. We don't want to stay up by the skin of our teeth, we want to progress and set ourselves up for next season positively. There is an opportunity for us to finish around mid table and that would be progression. That surely has to be the target. I would say 10th to 12th is feasible if we end the season well.

Cant see that as being too important meself other than building confidence and encouraging new recruits for next year.

CaptainRobbo

gringo said:

MuttleyCAFC said:

I think there is another factor here and Jones has alluded to it. We don't want to stay up by the skin of our teeth, we want to progress and set ourselves up for next season positively. There is an opportunity for us to finish around mid table and that would be progression. That surely has to be the target. I would say 10th to 12th is feasible if we end the season well.

Cant see that as being too important meself other than building confidence and encouraging new recruits for next year.

The fact that we currently have Dykes and Coady with us can't harm the possibility of other experienced and quality players joining us next season.

MuttleyCAFC

gringo said:

MuttleyCAFC said:

I think there is another factor here and Jones has alluded to it. We don't want to stay up by the skin of our teeth, we want to progress and set ourselves up for next season positively. There is an opportunity for us to finish around mid table and that would be progression. That surely has to be the target. I would say 10th to 12th is feasible if we end the season well.

Cant see that as being too important meself other than building confidence and encouraging new recruits for next year.

Clearly it isn't as important as surviving but I think for the reasons you state, it is still important to aim for it. Also, Nathan can claim we are on track and maybe get more funding for the next stage. It is possible, whilst I am not a fan of it, that the play offs going down to 8th place next season may look more feasible if we finish not far from 8th this.

ShootersHillGuru

Redhenry said:

After seeing Oxford on Sat, they go down for me

You’d think so wouldn’t you but they have taken ten points out of the last twelve. That is impressive for a side with the season they’ve had.

ShootersHillGuru

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Redhenry said:

After seeing Oxford on Sat, they go down for me

I think it changes all the time though.

Millwall fans (and a lot of Charlton) said the same about us going down after the 4-0.
Oxford looked dead and buried then picked up 10 points from 12.
Portsmouth looked like pulling clear after winning away at us and Millwall in 4 days, then haven't won since.
People thought Leicester would pull away after winning in midweek then taking the lead v QPR. Half an hour later they were 3-1 down and bang in trouble.
Blackburn and West Brom both looked fairly doomed, then go and beat teams in the play off spots.

All we can really be certain of at this point, is that it's any 2 from Pompey, Blackburn, West brom, Oxford and Leicester. The gap is too big now for anyone else to get sucked in.

Pessimistic perhaps but I’d say that we are still two points shy of not being included in that list. 

Belv

ShootersHillGuru said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Redhenry said:

After seeing Oxford on Sat, they go down for me

I think it changes all the time though.

Millwall fans (and a lot of Charlton) said the same about us going down after the 4-0.
Oxford looked dead and buried then picked up 10 points from 12.
Portsmouth looked like pulling clear after winning away at us and Millwall in 4 days, then haven't won since.
People thought Leicester would pull away after winning in midweek then taking the lead v QPR. Half an hour later they were 3-1 down and bang in trouble.
Blackburn and West Brom both looked fairly doomed, then go and beat teams in the play off spots.

All we can really be certain of at this point, is that it's any 2 from Pompey, Blackburn, West brom, Oxford and Leicester. The gap is too big now for anyone else to get sucked in.

Pessimistic perhaps but I’d say that we are still two points shy of not being included in that list. 

There is an almost 0% chance we don't get 2 points from our remaining 8 games.

Danny Addick

ShootersHillGuru said:

Redhenry said:

After seeing Oxford on Sat, they go down for me

You’d think so wouldn’t you but they have taken ten points out of the last twelve. That is impressive for a side with the season they’ve had.

they recruited well in Jan 

Callumcafc

League table between 6th and 23rd ordered by points instead of league position

Holdkneebomb

Blackburn and Oxford run ins look the toughest. I fancy Oxford plus the loser of the Blackburn v Leicester game on the final day will be the ones relegated and 51 points needed for safety

ShootersHillGuru

Belv said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Redhenry said:

After seeing Oxford on Sat, they go down for me

I think it changes all the time though.

Millwall fans (and a lot of Charlton) said the same about us going down after the 4-0.
Oxford looked dead and buried then picked up 10 points from 12.
Portsmouth looked like pulling clear after winning away at us and Millwall in 4 days, then haven't won since.
People thought Leicester would pull away after winning in midweek then taking the lead v QPR. Half an hour later they were 3-1 down and bang in trouble.
Blackburn and West Brom both looked fairly doomed, then go and beat teams in the play off spots.

All we can really be certain of at this point, is that it's any 2 from Pompey, Blackburn, West brom, Oxford and Leicester. The gap is too big now for anyone else to get sucked in.

Pessimistic perhaps but I’d say that we are still two points shy of not being included in that list. 

There is an almost 0% chance we don't get 2 points from our remaining 8 games.

I agree but we’ve been on bad dips in form this season so let’s not rule out things becoming more awkward than they might need to be. I actually think the Norwich, Bristol City and Watford games are going to be very tough. I’ll be ecstatic if we come through those three with three points.

Crispywood

We’re closer to 8th place than we are Blackburn who are one position below us. Relegation was definitely a possibility after Millwall and Wrexham but now it’s time to be focus on attacking a midtable spot

Chris_from_Sidcup

ShootersHillGuru said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Redhenry said:

After seeing Oxford on Sat, they go down for me

I think it changes all the time though.

Millwall fans (and a lot of Charlton) said the same about us going down after the 4-0.
Oxford looked dead and buried then picked up 10 points from 12.
Portsmouth looked like pulling clear after winning away at us and Millwall in 4 days, then haven't won since.
People thought Leicester would pull away after winning in midweek then taking the lead v QPR. Half an hour later they were 3-1 down and bang in trouble.
Blackburn and West Brom both looked fairly doomed, then go and beat teams in the play off spots.

All we can really be certain of at this point, is that it's any 2 from Pompey, Blackburn, West brom, Oxford and Leicester. The gap is too big now for anyone else to get sucked in.

Pessimistic perhaps but I’d say that we are still two points shy of not being included in that list. 

Very pessimistic. I agree we probably need 1 more win but we'll be fine. There's no way we won't win at least 1 out of Bristol City, Preston and Sheff Weds.

J BLOCK

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

J BLOCK said:

ForeverAddickted said:

J BLOCK said:

ForeverAddickted said:

Interesting that despite some strong starts from the likes of Preston, Stoke and QPR that they've fallen back and are kind of part of the mini-League that I always expected them to be involved in with us.
Is probably Hull and Derby from last season that have managed to stay where they are. 

The league is very even this year, outside of the top 4, the rest all the way down to us are very similar in ability. 

This is just how Football in England is in general outside of the Premier League for me

Money can be a factor, but having the best budget etc. seems a lot less important in the EFL and below - Its so much more unpredictable for some reason, maybe the youth loan market plays a heavy part, and is in part down to clubs getting lucky in getting the next Conor Gallagher / Brennan Johnson type loan

I'd say the Premier league is this season too. No run away leaders, most teams beating each other. The same for Champ and League one. Interesting season of football. 

Arsenal have been top since October and are 9 points clear. 
Coventry top since October.
Lincoln and Cardiff have been top 2 in league one for months and are both running away with promotion.

There are some interesting battles across the divisions, but not really regarding the leaders.

Sorry you're right, for the prem it's really anyone outside of Arsenal, Championship is anyone outside the top 4, League one anyone outside the top 2 

CharltonManor1966

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

mid_life_crisis said:

Preston are now a shorter price than us with the bookies to go down. On a run of 2 points from the past 7 games.

Only 6 points from 12 games since New Year's Day. At that point they were 4th, just 3 points off 2nd. Truly horrendous run of form and they'd be right in it had they not started the season well.

They won't go down though, just 1 win and they'll be safe.

And so would we be TBF........

superclive98

Now 80/1 to go down with Betfair.

Oggy Red

ShootersHillGuru said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Redhenry said:

After seeing Oxford on Sat, they go down for me

I think it changes all the time though.

Millwall fans (and a lot of Charlton) said the same about us going down after the 4-0.
Oxford looked dead and buried then picked up 10 points from 12.
Portsmouth looked like pulling clear after winning away at us and Millwall in 4 days, then haven't won since.
People thought Leicester would pull away after winning in midweek then taking the lead v QPR. Half an hour later they were 3-1 down and bang in trouble.
Blackburn and West Brom both looked fairly doomed, then go and beat teams in the play off spots.

All we can really be certain of at this point, is that it's any 2 from Pompey, Blackburn, West brom, Oxford and Leicester. The gap is too big now for anyone else to get sucked in.

Pessimistic perhaps but I’d say that we are still two points shy of not being included in that list. 

We need shooting though, if we can't get at least 6 points from 8 games!

And one of those games is v Sheff Wed. Oh, no.....banana skin 

Incidentally most of the relegation pack still have to play Sheff Weds.

And each other, all of them each have a couple of 6-pointers still to come.

Blackburn v Leicester on the final day!

Lots of twists and turns still to come

Oggy Red

mid_life_crisis said:

Preston are now a shorter price than us with the bookies to go down. On a run of 2 points from the past 7 games.

It's a funny thing....last season Preston did the same thing, winning only 1 of their last 15 games, in free fall from a playoff chasing position to finally escaping relegation by a single point!

superclive98

Oggy Red said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Redhenry said:

After seeing Oxford on Sat, they go down for me

I think it changes all the time though.

Millwall fans (and a lot of Charlton) said the same about us going down after the 4-0.
Oxford looked dead and buried then picked up 10 points from 12.
Portsmouth looked like pulling clear after winning away at us and Millwall in 4 days, then haven't won since.
People thought Leicester would pull away after winning in midweek then taking the lead v QPR. Half an hour later they were 3-1 down and bang in trouble.
Blackburn and West Brom both looked fairly doomed, then go and beat teams in the play off spots.

All we can really be certain of at this point, is that it's any 2 from Pompey, Blackburn, West brom, Oxford and Leicester. The gap is too big now for anyone else to get sucked in.

Pessimistic perhaps but I’d say that we are still two points shy of not being included in that list. 

We need shooting though, if we can't get at least 6 points from 8 games!

And one of those games is v Sheff Wed. Oh, no.....banana skin  :

Incidentally most of the relegation pack still have to play Sheff Weds.

And each other, all of them each have a couple of 6-pointers still to come.

Blackburn v Leicester on the final day!

Lots of twists and turns still to come

Leicester, Oxford and West Brom do, Pompey and Blackburn don't.