How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

golfaddick said:

The problem with using AI is that the thinking is linear and doesn't take into account external factors like teams left to play (and their form/needs etc), players coming back from injury (eg Godden) and just plain old in/out of form. 

 Right now, the “bottom ten” (15th–24th) looks like this on points: QPR 47, Swansea 46, Norwich 45, Charlton 41, Portsmouth 39 (with a game in hand), Blackburn 38, West Brom 35, Leicester 34 (with a 6-point deduction), Oxford 32, Sheffield Wednesday −7 (after deductions). 

That tells you two important things before we even get into fixtures and injuries. First, the real relegation fight is concentrated around West Brom / Leicester / Oxford for the last two “survival” places (21st is safety; 22nd–24th go down).  Second, Sheffield Wednesday are so far adrift on points and goal difference that they’re effectively in “miracle required” territory.

The run-in that matters (what to watch in the next few weeks)

Because the table is tight in places, the most influential matches are the six-pointers—games where one relegation candidate directly denies another a point swing. A few of those are already visible in the near-term fixture lists:

Oxford have a particularly defining mini-run with Blackburn (11 March) and Charlton (14 March), both at the Kassam, which is exactly the kind of sequence that can flip a relegation narrative in ten days. 

Leicester’s next two big pressure fixtures are Bristol City (10 March) and QPR (14 March) at home; those are “must convert” games if they want to play their way clear of the deduction drag. 

Blackburn meet Portsmouth (7 March), then go straight into Oxford (11 March)—two matches against teams directly around them where a couple of poor results would turn a wobble into freefall. 

West Brom’s immediate test is brutal: Southampton (11 March) and Hull (14 March), both sides with top-half ambitions, when West Brom’s recent form already looks fragile. 

Form, “between the teams” results, and whether it’s likely to improve or relapse

Using the Guardian’s last-five form lines as a quick sanity check, and cross-referencing the table (goal difference, goals for/against), here’s how I read the bottom ten’s trajectory.

QPR (currently 15th, 47 pts) feel like the classic “not safe, but hard to drag in” side. They’ve had volatility—hammered 5–0 by Southampton but also won away, like the 3–1 at Hull—which normally suggests they’ll pick up enough points in bursts to stay above the real scrap. Their next visible pressure point is Leicester away (14 March): for QPR it’s a chance to put daylight between themselves and the trapdoor; for Leicester it’s a survival match in all but name. 

Swansea (16th, 46 pts) look mid-table on paper but are close enough to get sucked in if the away results go. A 3–0 loss at Ipswich is exactly the sort of performance that makes you worry about “relapse” against the division’s better sides, and they’ve got awkward ones coming up like Portsmouth away (10 March) and Wrexham away (13 March). The upside is that they’re not haemorrhaging goals overall (goal difference is manageable), which usually keeps you afloat in the Championship even when you’re patchy. 

Norwich (17th, 45 pts) are the one side in this cluster that looks like they’re pulling away on momentum. They’ve beaten direct rivals—2–0 at Leicester and 2–0 vs Sheffield Wednesday—which is exactly how teams climb out of trouble without needing a full tactical revolution.  On availability, the public injury trackers aren’t perfect, but Norwich do have at least a couple of names flagged as out (for example, Springett and Forsyth on one commonly-used list), which matters because teams on the edge can’t afford to lose depth in the run-in. 

Charlton (18th, 41 pts) are sitting in that uneasy “too good to be down, too close to be comfortable” band. The draws away at West Brom and against Southampton are useful points, but the inability to turn matches into wins is what keeps clubs hovering near the line.  Their looming trip to Oxford (14 March) has the feel of a match that will either settle Charlton’s nerves or pull them right back into it. 

Portsmouth (19th, 39 pts, game in hand) are the most “swingy” of the lot because the game in hand can disguise how fine the margins are. They’ve shown they can hit a ceiling (they beat Millwall 3–1 away) but then immediately drop points in games they’d want back.  The next visible block—Blackburn away (7 March) then Swansea at home (10 March)—is the definition of “two matches that decide your month”. 

Blackburn (20th, 38 pts) look like the side most at risk of sliding if they don’t stabilise defensively; the goal difference and recent results suggest they’re losing too many tight games.  Their head-to-head sequence with Portsmouth (7 March) and Oxford (11 March) is critical because it’s not just about points gained; it’s about points denied to immediate rivals. 

West Brom (21st, 35 pts) are the club I’d circle in red for “most likely to drop into the relegation places and stay there” unless something changes fast. The Guardian form line shows a run of draws and losses, and the defensive numbers are poor relative to the teams just above.  When you combine that with an immediate schedule including Southampton and Hull, you’re staring at a scenario where “decent performances” still produce only one or two points, which is how you get overtaken. 

Leicester (22nd, 34 pts, 6-point deduction) are fascinating because, on pure goals scored, they don’t look like a typical relegation team.  The problem is that deductions compress your margin for error: a draw that “feels fine” becomes a missed opportunity. The near-term slate—Bristol City then QPR—gives them a genuine route to momentum if they can turn home matches into wins, and I’m leaning towards them improving simply because they have more goal threat than the teams around them. 

Oxford (23rd, 32 pts) look like the classic hard-working side with one structural issue: they don’t score enough.  Beating West Brom 2–1 is exactly the kind of result that keeps hope alive, but then you look at the next two: Blackburn and Charlton, and it becomes obvious that “hope” needs to turn into a run—fast.  If they don’t take four to six points from those two matches, their probability of survival drops sharply.

Sheffield Wednesday (24th, −7 pts, huge negative goal difference) are in a different category entirely.  When you’re shipping goals at that rate and you’ve got deductions on top, you need more than a new-manager bounce; you need a complete statistical reversal. The upcoming fixtures we can see—Watford and Ipswich—don’t scream “easy points”, and the derby loss to Sheffield United plus a 2–0 loss at Norwich fits the pattern of a side that can compete for spells but can’t change outcomes. 

My predicted final bottom ten (15th to 24th) and why

I’m projecting the bottom ten to finish, from 15th down, as QPR, Swansea, Norwich, Charlton, Portsmouth, Blackburn, Leicester, West Brom, Oxford, Sheffield Wednesday. 

The reasoning is simple but harsh. QPR, Swansea and Norwich have already banked enough points that they can survive a wobble, and Norwich look the likeliest to improve because they’re picking up results against direct rivals.  Charlton and Portsmouth feel like they’ll flirt with danger but do just enough; Portsmouth’s extra match is a small cushion even if it’s not a guarantee.  Blackburn are the “could finish anywhere between 17th and 22nd” side, but their next cluster of six-pointer fixtures is unforgiving.  Leicester, even with the deduction, have the best attacking numbers of the relegation candidates, and if they turn home fixtures into wins they can climb.  West Brom and Oxford, by contrast, have the profile of teams that will struggle to generate the wins needed at the sharp end of the season, and Wednesday look gone

Covered End said:

Athletico Charlton said:

Just posted on the Jones thread, but better here...

We have won 2 of the last 20 league games we have played against 11 men (so not including Leicester and Sheffield Utd), picking up 12 points. We beat Stoke and Oxford 1-0.
That run includes games v Blackburn, West Brom, Pompey x2 and Norwich amongst others.  
I am really struggling to see where the 9-12 points we need from the last 12 games are going to come from.
We really are pinning all hopes on beating Wednesday and Oxford and then playing another team of 9 or 10 players aren't we?

I agree that if you don't include half of our victories it doesn't look great.

fenaddick said:

Worth remembering there are a few games where relegation rivals play each other and so will take points off one another 

Blackburn v Portsmouth

Oxford v Blackburn

Blackburn v West Brom

Portsmouth v Oxford

Portsmouth v Leicester 

Blackburn v Leicester (final day)


And then of course we have Oxford too

Ducktapeshoerepairs said:

stonemuse said:

Prediction from my most used AI model:

 Right now, the “bottom ten” (15th–24th) looks like this on points: QPR 47, Swansea 46, Norwich 45, Charlton 41, Portsmouth 39 (with a game in hand), Blackburn 38, West Brom 35, Leicester 34 (with a 6-point deduction), Oxford 32, Sheffield Wednesday −7 (after deductions). 

That tells you two important things before we even get into fixtures and injuries. First, the real relegation fight is concentrated around West Brom / Leicester / Oxford for the last two “survival” places (21st is safety; 22nd–24th go down).  Second, Sheffield Wednesday are so far adrift on points and goal difference that they’re effectively in “miracle required” territory.

The run-in that matters (what to watch in the next few weeks)

Because the table is tight in places, the most influential matches are the six-pointers—games where one relegation candidate directly denies another a point swing. A few of those are already visible in the near-term fixture lists:

Oxford have a particularly defining mini-run with Blackburn (11 March) and Charlton (14 March), both at the Kassam, which is exactly the kind of sequence that can flip a relegation narrative in ten days. 

Leicester’s next two big pressure fixtures are Bristol City (10 March) and QPR (14 March) at home; those are “must convert” games if they want to play their way clear of the deduction drag. 

Blackburn meet Portsmouth (7 March), then go straight into Oxford (11 March)—two matches against teams directly around them where a couple of poor results would turn a wobble into freefall. 

West Brom’s immediate test is brutal: Southampton (11 March) and Hull (14 March), both sides with top-half ambitions, when West Brom’s recent form already looks fragile. 

Form, “between the teams” results, and whether it’s likely to improve or relapse

Using the Guardian’s last-five form lines as a quick sanity check, and cross-referencing the table (goal difference, goals for/against), here’s how I read the bottom ten’s trajectory.

QPR (currently 15th, 47 pts) feel like the classic “not safe, but hard to drag in” side. They’ve had volatility—hammered 5–0 by Southampton but also won away, like the 3–1 at Hull—which normally suggests they’ll pick up enough points in bursts to stay above the real scrap. Their next visible pressure point is Leicester away (14 March): for QPR it’s a chance to put daylight between themselves and the trapdoor; for Leicester it’s a survival match in all but name. 

Swansea (16th, 46 pts) look mid-table on paper but are close enough to get sucked in if the away results go. A 3–0 loss at Ipswich is exactly the sort of performance that makes you worry about “relapse” against the division’s better sides, and they’ve got awkward ones coming up like Portsmouth away (10 March) and Wrexham away (13 March). The upside is that they’re not haemorrhaging goals overall (goal difference is manageable), which usually keeps you afloat in the Championship even when you’re patchy. 

Norwich (17th, 45 pts) are the one side in this cluster that looks like they’re pulling away on momentum. They’ve beaten direct rivals—2–0 at Leicester and 2–0 vs Sheffield Wednesday—which is exactly how teams climb out of trouble without needing a full tactical revolution.  On availability, the public injury trackers aren’t perfect, but Norwich do have at least a couple of names flagged as out (for example, Springett and Forsyth on one commonly-used list), which matters because teams on the edge can’t afford to lose depth in the run-in. 

Charlton (18th, 41 pts) are sitting in that uneasy “too good to be down, too close to be comfortable” band. The draws away at West Brom and against Southampton are useful points, but the inability to turn matches into wins is what keeps clubs hovering near the line.  Their looming trip to Oxford (14 March) has the feel of a match that will either settle Charlton’s nerves or pull them right back into it. 

Portsmouth (19th, 39 pts, game in hand) are the most “swingy” of the lot because the game in hand can disguise how fine the margins are. They’ve shown they can hit a ceiling (they beat Millwall 3–1 away) but then immediately drop points in games they’d want back.  The next visible block—Blackburn away (7 March) then Swansea at home (10 March)—is the definition of “two matches that decide your month”. 

Blackburn (20th, 38 pts) look like the side most at risk of sliding if they don’t stabilise defensively; the goal difference and recent results suggest they’re losing too many tight games.  Their head-to-head sequence with Portsmouth (7 March) and Oxford (11 March) is critical because it’s not just about points gained; it’s about points denied to immediate rivals. 

West Brom (21st, 35 pts) are the club I’d circle in red for “most likely to drop into the relegation places and stay there” unless something changes fast. The Guardian form line shows a run of draws and losses, and the defensive numbers are poor relative to the teams just above.  When you combine that with an immediate schedule including Southampton and Hull, you’re staring at a scenario where “decent performances” still produce only one or two points, which is how you get overtaken. 

Leicester (22nd, 34 pts, 6-point deduction) are fascinating because, on pure goals scored, they don’t look like a typical relegation team.  The problem is that deductions compress your margin for error: a draw that “feels fine” becomes a missed opportunity. The near-term slate—Bristol City then QPR—gives them a genuine route to momentum if they can turn home matches into wins, and I’m leaning towards them improving simply because they have more goal threat than the teams around them. 

Oxford (23rd, 32 pts) look like the classic hard-working side with one structural issue: they don’t score enough.  Beating West Brom 2–1 is exactly the kind of result that keeps hope alive, but then you look at the next two: Blackburn and Charlton, and it becomes obvious that “hope” needs to turn into a run—fast.  If they don’t take four to six points from those two matches, their probability of survival drops sharply.

Sheffield Wednesday (24th, −7 pts, huge negative goal difference) are in a different category entirely.  When you’re shipping goals at that rate and you’ve got deductions on top, you need more than a new-manager bounce; you need a complete statistical reversal. The upcoming fixtures we can see—Watford and Ipswich—don’t scream “easy points”, and the derby loss to Sheffield United plus a 2–0 loss at Norwich fits the pattern of a side that can compete for spells but can’t change outcomes. 

My predicted final bottom ten (15th to 24th) and why

I’m projecting the bottom ten to finish, from 15th down, as QPR, Swansea, Norwich, Charlton, Portsmouth, Blackburn, Leicester, West Brom, Oxford, Sheffield Wednesday. 

The reasoning is simple but harsh. QPR, Swansea and Norwich have already banked enough points that they can survive a wobble, and Norwich look the likeliest to improve because they’re picking up results against direct rivals.  Charlton and Portsmouth feel like they’ll flirt with danger but do just enough; Portsmouth’s extra match is a small cushion even if it’s not a guarantee.  Blackburn are the “could finish anywhere between 17th and 22nd” side, but their next cluster of six-pointer fixtures is unforgiving.  Leicester, even with the deduction, have the best attacking numbers of the relegation candidates, and if they turn home fixtures into wins they can climb.  West Brom and Oxford, by contrast, have the profile of teams that will struggle to generate the wins needed at the sharp end of the season, and Wednesday look gone

Sheffield Wednesday are already relegated !!